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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,621
  • Jan 22, 2008 10:20am Jan 22, 2008 10:20am
I wrote in my notes this morning of a possible very high risk long trade E/U. I saw 4H and 1H bullish engulfing candles also green MACD (first bar on the CT) on 1H and 4H and the 1H closed above the 21. I didnt take the trade as the R/R was crazy and the stop was also massive.

Of course it is only now of relevance because of the Fed intervention which moved price around 200 pips from that initial entry point. If that hadn't of happened it may not have looked so sexy now...
  • #10,622
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:44am Jan 22, 2008 11:44am
I've taken a chance on the 200 sma acting as strong resistance. Entered short 1.4621 at 1712gmt with stop at 1.4644 = -23 pips. Risky trade. Close below 200 sma on 1200gmt 4Hr candle with tail above it. Close below 200 on 1700gmt candle on 1Hr. The 1Hr candle was small with a lower close and with a longer upper shadow. Will watch this one closely to see how price acts at the figure 1.4600 and at the 1.5 pivot line, 1.4601. If price breaks through there, I'm anticipating a round top on 1Hr and a zero break on the 4Hr and a possible move to the 365 ema at 1.4554. Reason for entering at this time, in spite of the risk, is the smaller stop. Will update later. Price currently at 1.4610. This is only one mini-lot, so there will be only one take profit. --Tony Forgot to mention the 21 ema in the region of the 365 at 1.4563.
  • #10,623
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:52am Jan 22, 2008 11:52am
Quoting OldDog
I've taken a chance on the 200 sma acting as strong resistance. Entered short 1.4621 at 1712gmt with stop at 1.4644 = -23 pips. Risky trade. Close below 200 sma on 1200gmt 4Hr candle with tail above it. Close below 200 on 1700gmt candle on 1Hr. The 1Hr candle was small with a lower close and with a longer upper shadow. Will watch this one closely to see how price acts at the figure 1.4600 and at the 1.5 pivot line, 1.4601. If price breaks through there, I'm anticipating a round top on 1Hr and a zero break on the 4Hr and a possible move to the 365 ema at 1.4554. Reason for entering at this time, in spite of the risk, is the smaller stop. Will update later. Price currently at 1.4610. This is only one mini-lot, so there will be only one take profit. --Tony

Hello Tony,

On eur/usd I'm anticipating a downmove off the 200 also.
it would be according to the rules.
'crossed 200 comes back to it and them moves on to that direction.'
I'd just like to get more confirmation before entering.

gbp/usd and aud/usd have simmilar short setups as the eur/usd

Regards
  • #10,624
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:24pm Jan 22, 2008 12:24pm
Hi Ashes. I know what you mean about waiting. My reason was the small stop, and the price action around the 200, but the 1.4600 figure is acting as strong support also. We'll see. If it breaks through, up or down, we'll probably have a good move in that direction with some stops being taken out. --Tony
  • #10,625
  • Jan 22, 2008 1:05pm Jan 22, 2008 1:05pm
I may enter EURJPY short at the close of the 1800gmt 1Hr candle on a semi-round top, anticipating a zero break on the 2000gmt 4Hr candle. As I finished writing, a down move started, and, unless there's a retrace near 156.00, I'm leaving it alone. There's a tweezer top on my 1Hr, and it's going, going, gone. --Tony
  • #10,626
  • Jan 22, 2008 1:14pm Jan 22, 2008 1:14pm
Here's the picture as I was writing. A bit different now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy 4hr 22jan2008.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #10,627
  • Jan 22, 2008 1:53pm Jan 22, 2008 1:53pm
Hi Phillip,

Most time when you talk about trading off the 1hr TF, you often use the expression "based on experience" i often get confused.

How do you mean?

Is it based on the movement of the price in 1H in the direction of the 4H?

could you please explain this in details?

thanks.
"Forex is like a bitch every trader must marry one"
  • #10,628
  • Jan 22, 2008 1:57pm Jan 22, 2008 1:57pm
I'm being silly with all my posting today. It's the slow time of the day. Not usually a good time to enter trades, but some look like they have some promise. AUDUSD setting up for round top on 1Hr, possible trend continue on 4Hr. Will try to go short between .8680 and .8700. R 0.5 is at .8690. A daily low from the 21Sept is at the figure, .8600. Price will have failed twice at the 21, .8696. Stop will be above .8900.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 1hr 22jan2008 1945gmt.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #10,629
  • Jan 22, 2008 2:03pm Jan 22, 2008 2:03pm
Here's the 4Hr chart. Entered at 2000gmt, short .8680. Will update later.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 4hr 22jan2008 1942gmt.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #10,630
  • Jan 22, 2008 2:11pm Jan 22, 2008 2:11pm
Quoting OldDog
I'm being silly with all my posting today. It's the slow time of the day. Not usually a good time to enter trades, but some look like they have some promise. AUDUSD setting up for round top on 1Hr, possible trend continue on 4Hr. Will try to go short between .8680 and .8700. R 0.5 is at .8690. A daily low from the 21Sept is at the figure, .8600. Price will have failed twice at the 21, .8696. Stop will be above .8900.
yes,but there is a possible short for usdcad ,it breaks and close below TL and 21 and pulls back ,which one is better ? i know USUALLY(not always) commodity currencies move in same direction( i mean when audusd is up usdcad in down and vers) so ... short audusd now or usdcad? which one is better?
news for US says : becarefull when u want to long the usd
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,631
  • Jan 22, 2008 2:39pm Jan 22, 2008 2:39pm
Bshadroo, you're right. Aud is turning on me. I could have, at least, waited until .8690, .8700 to go short, but that's moot because I'm about to be stopped out at .8716 -- about now. Good luck on Canada --Tony
  • #10,632
  • Jan 22, 2008 2:42pm Jan 22, 2008 2:42pm
Dear phillip

what I understand for using 1 H to support the 4H on the TC is that when the Tc start to begin on the 4H we can enter early using 1 H if its shows also TC .. is it true ? as I see some traders using Round top -bottom on 1H to supprt the TC on the 4H .. is that can be used ? pls advice

Thanks
  • #10,633
  • Jan 22, 2008 3:33pm Jan 22, 2008 3:33pm
Why would you trade today? If you trade today you like high risk stuff or just don't understand. Dow swing 600 point 3/4 point cut and bush on tv and you guys are trading? WHY!!!! Oh well I guess we will have a few new rounds of people once these guys blow out there accout / quit trading. Last week was not great, Sun / Mon was great, Tues = take the day off.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,634
  • Jan 22, 2008 4:00pm Jan 22, 2008 4:00pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Why would you trade today? If you trade today you like high risk stuff or just don't understand. Dow swing 600 point 3/4 point cut and bush on tv and you guys are trading? WHY!!!! Oh well I guess we will have a few new rounds of people once these guys blow out there accout / quit trading. Last week was not great, Sun / Mon was great, Tues = take the day off.
You are right. I am properly chastised. I stopped myself out of the EURUSD trade at 1.4630 for a 9 pip loss. The AUDUSD trade was a 35 pip loss. Sorry, if I encouraged anyone to trade. --Tony
  • #10,635
  • Jan 22, 2008 5:27pm Jan 22, 2008 5:27pm
Quoting OldDog
You are right. I am properly chastised. I stopped myself out of the EURUSD trade at 1.4630 for a 9 pip loss. The AUDUSD trade was a 35 pip loss. Sorry, if I encouraged anyone to trade. --Tony

Again, I don't want to come across as a ass but there is nothing else that could of happened today to make it any harder to trade this, Here is when the newbs come out to play and lose a lot. I remember Sept 11. 2001 I was long a lot and lost 7k that day, I will not let that happen again and it's foolish to trade today when even the pro's are having problems. Sit tight tomorrow will be better. Seems 90% of the trades here are people having nothing better to do then trade so they take something and win / lose but it's a trade that should have waited. Sure you will get lucky and maybe a few weeks but you can NOT make a living trading if you have no discipline in this market.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,636
  • Edited Jan 23, 2008 2:31am Jan 22, 2008 5:34pm | Edited Jan 23, 2008 2:31am
Hi,

I entered usd/cad short 1.0268
sl 1.0310 (2x - 42)
tp1 1.0230 (+38)
tp2 1.0170 (+98)
84:136

price has moved down below 21sma and came back to it and closed below. (4hchart)
on the 1h chart price came down crossing 89, finding resistance on 200 and
moving up to 21. there it comes down, moving off 21 and 89.
tp1 is around 200sma of 1h chart,
tp2 around 89 on 4h chart, in case price continues further down.
sl is above 21 and 89 (1h chart) at retracement shadow. at TL and above 8 on 4h.

I'll have to check on pricemovement when i wake up. then i decide how to set my sl
in case tp1 is about to get triggered.

edit: too much uncertainty. trade closed with +1 pip

Regards
  • #10,637
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:23pm Jan 22, 2008 8:23pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Why would you trade today? If you trade today you like high risk stuff or just don't understand. Dow swing 600 point 3/4 point cut and bush on tv and you guys are trading? WHY!!!! Oh well I guess we will have a few new rounds of people once these guys blow out there accout / quit trading. Last week was not great, Sun / Mon was great, Tues = take the day off.
YES. THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION. I couldn't see that yesterday was actually that US interest rate change day!! The calendar didn't show it up before the actual time. Grrr
  • #10,638
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:17pm Jan 22, 2008 9:17pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Why would you trade today? If you trade today you like high risk stuff or just don't understand. Dow swing 600 point 3/4 point cut and bush on tv and you guys are trading? WHY!!!! Oh well I guess we will have a few new rounds of people once these guys blow out there accout / quit trading. Last week was not great, Sun / Mon was great, Tues = take the day off.
Maybe you don't understand? I hope we get new people without having any newbies blow their accounts. Why not take a gentler attitude, e.g. "I never trade in these kinds of days [and maybe explain exactly why] - good luck to those of you that do! [and maybe ask why, etc.]"

I shorted the NZD/USD, because I saw a confluence of great signals on the H1:

  1. round top in MACD
  2. two shooting stars
  3. bearish engulfing pattern
  4. Excellent r/r: resistance was very close @ 0.7675, profit targets were much further [even 23.6% fib was 60 pips away]

I didn't enter when the bearish engulfing pattern was formed - and of course the shooting stars weren't enough by themselves - but they're still valid as reversal signal as long as no candle closes above them. As I often do, I waited patiently ("risking" missing a good trade) until the next candle (with the dotted vertical red line on it) closed, under the shooting star, then entered. As mentioned, the validity of the reversal signals was preserved, and I got a very good rr.
Of course, I am well aware that this trade is far from classic in terms of this thread... but I am using principles I've learned here in my trading. And hopefully, others can learn something from this.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008-01-22_215039NZDUSD.png Size: 26 KB
  • #10,639
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:26pm Jan 22, 2008 9:26pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Why would you trade today? If you trade today you like high risk stuff or just don't understand. Dow swing 600 point 3/4 point cut and bush on tv and you guys are trading? WHY!!!! Oh well I guess we will have a few new rounds of people once these guys blow out there accout / quit trading. Last week was not great, Sun / Mon was great, Tues = take the day off.

I couldn't agree more. Waaaay to much going on. The dust will still be flying around for at least another week. Didn't even look at charts today. Took the day off and had a blast!
  • #10,640
  • Jan 23, 2008 12:21am Jan 23, 2008 12:21am
Hello everyone,

New posting here. I am using 4h MACD system since November 2007, just following a downtrend channel in GBPUSD. My LT targets are 1.8650 and 1.8301.

Today, trying to reset shorts at MA89 if possible. A consolidated break above MA89 cancel my ST bearish outlook. A break above MA200 could cancel my LT bearish outlook.

Good luck to all. Thanks to Phil.

A. Rodriguez
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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