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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,601
  • Jan 22, 2008 1:41am Jan 22, 2008 1:41am
Quoting maxster
Ira,

Can I ask how you pulled the trigger on the EUR? I was anticipating this trade but by the time the 1H MACD gave me the TC trigger signal it moved too much for me - I get fustrated with the indicator because it lags so much.

Thanks.
Hi Maxster, first of all don't worry, it will come with time. I also too often missed the breakout and then was looking for CT to the 21, which often was a loss - what a frustration!
I can't say that I have mastered the breakout trades, I am still nervous to miss the move, or to be wrong, but it gets better. I especially like when the price is stuck between 2 major MA's, I already know that after the breakout usually comes the big move, like my last trade on EUR. So, I was prepared. The odds were for the down move, so I decided if I see a bearish candle closing below 200 I'll take the trade.
When I opened my terminal at 7:45 (GMT +2), 15 minutes before my 4 hour candle close I saw that market opened with gap and price went not only through 200, but 365 too, and the next candle was closing below 365 - that was my entry, after the close of 4:00 candle. I knew that there can be a retracment to the 365, and it was better to put pending order there, but I was scared to miss the move. As I was aware of retracment I put my SL above 365. That's it.
So, if you see a good move from the consolidation and the candles are indicating market movement, don't hesitate to take a trade, they are usually very profitable. You may be wrong sometimes of course, but we can't be always right .
  • #10,602
  • Jan 22, 2008 2:23am Jan 22, 2008 2:23am
Quoting bshadroo
hi
becarefull ! there is a monthly TL around and..
did u get a tc signal on h4?
why ur sl is at 1.6080? couldnt be about 1.6055?(above 1.6045)
Hi, I did get a TC signal off the 8sma, but without a macd confirmation.
it would have been too large of a sl to set it above the 21on the 4h,
that's why I decided to set it inbetween the ema's.
on 3h chart it is on 21 and after watching the priceaction during the past
days on 3h it appeared ok to me to set it there.

Regards
  • #10,603
  • Edited 11:47am Jan 22, 2008 2:39am | Edited 11:47am
Hi,

I took this trade this morning

usd/chf short 1.1085
sl 1.1140 (2x -55)
tp1 1.1040 (+45)
tp2 1.0940 (+140)
110:185

have entered this trade right before retail sales news hoping for
the outcome to push the price down, ... well a fast move did not happen.
also entered the trade because price is in a rising wedge, round top
macd signal and last two candles very thin, almost dojis.
I have set the sl slightly above the rising wedge TL.
CT trade is risky, of course, so I will take first profit on 21sma/rising
wedge TL, and move the SL then to -35 to give the trade some
80 pips room to break down.

edit: tp1 triggered: +45 pips
sl set to 1.1120 (-35)

edit: trade currently round +70/+80 pips
sl set to 1.1055 (+30)

edit: trade currently around +100/+120 pips
sl set to 1.1030 (+55)

edit: price started to move sideways. closed second trade with + 100 pips

total: +145 pips

Regards
  • #10,604
  • Jan 22, 2008 4:05am Jan 22, 2008 4:05am
Quoting ashes
Hi,

I took this trade this morning

usd/chf short 1.1085
sl 1.1140 (2x -55)
tp1 1.1040 (+45)
tp2 1.0940 (+140)
110:185

have entered this trade right before retail sales news hoping for
the outcome to push the price down, ... well a fast move did not happen.
also entered the trade because price is in a rising wedge, round top
macd signal and last two candles very thin, almost dojis.
I have set the sl slightly above the rising wedge TL.
CT trade is risky, of course, so I will take first profit on 21sma/rising
wedge TL, and move the SL then to -35 to give the trade some
80 pips room to break down.

Regards
hi
sorry i post for u trades, but they seems very risky to me,look at circle ,i think its a strong area with 3 ma's 1TL and the 1.1060 level wich all broken up now and maybe better to wait for a long (TC signal)
(just my oponion and could be wrong)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #10,605
  • Jan 22, 2008 4:12am Jan 22, 2008 4:12am
I also see 89 below it
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #10,606
  • Edited 6:27am Jan 22, 2008 5:10am | Edited 6:27am
Quoting bshadroo
hi
sorry i post for u trades, but they seems very risky to me,look at circle ,i think its a strong area with 3 ma's 1TL and the 1.1060 level wich all broken up now and maybe better to wait for a long (TC signal)
(just my oponion and could be wrong)
hi bshadroo,

I apprechiate your comments. indeed TC's are risky, but the plan is to take
first tp on 21. according to the rules even on an uptrend price would come
down to 21 after having crossed the 89. after first tp I lower my sl, so +10 pips
are pocketed even if the plan goes wrong. we'll see if the price breaks the
rising wedge and goes down.

Regards
Attached Image
  • #10,607
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:16am Jan 22, 2008 7:16am
Hey everyone. I was gone pretty much all weekend and had very little time for anything here. Lot's of catching up to do.

There's a lot of 'stuff' happening in the markets right now...Dow overnight down almost 600 points, SP down almost 70 points..."Feds may step in today to do 'something'...."

I'll be in and out today....
  • #10,608
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:30am Jan 22, 2008 7:30am
Have you ever made one of those really really dumb trades when you look back and say wtf was I thinking. :surprised That happened on a trade this morning and the other trade was stopped out by a tail but it was within the rules Oh well live and learn at least I had my stops in place. I am going to sit the rest of the day out as punishment.
  • #10,609
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:31am Jan 22, 2008 7:31am
Quoting Palmer
Hey everyone. I was gone pretty much all weekend and had very little time for anything here. Lot's of catching up to do.

There's a lot of 'stuff' happening in the markets right now...Dow overnight down almost 600 points, SP down almost 70 points..."Feds may step in today to do 'something'...."

I'll be in and out today....

I was short a few last night and got out because something was not right. Man 600 points, here is where people freak out.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,610
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:57am Jan 22, 2008 7:57am
The fed cut the rate by .75 a few minutes ago. This should be interesting to watch what happens.
  • #10,611
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:09am Jan 22, 2008 8:09am
vette: YES

Ryanmcd....something in the air

What's interesting is that the 4hr EU was about 30 pips above the 21 with about 15min to go and settle back down below it. This may seem to be setting up for a Tc back to the downside but with the Fed stepping in like it did the EU may continue to trickle upwards. I'm going to be cautious about going short this pair until all this settles out. I may miss a signal that is staring me right in the face but I'll just wait for the next one to happen.
  • #10,612
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:30am Jan 22, 2008 8:30am
I took some paper trades yesterday night (04:00 GMT -- 11:00 EST). There were round bottoms in GBP/USD, EUR/USD. I've posted my charts of the two. Trades were as follows.

EUR/USD
P 1.4439
SL 1.4392 below the signal candle
TP 1.4500 at the local resistance line above.

GBP/USD
P 1.9426
SL 1.9366 on trendline (can be seen on chart) and below signal candle
TP 1.9527 at 21EMA

In both cases, I got stopped out before the price went the way I wanted it to. Did I place my stops too close? I thought that the points I chose made sense.

R
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #10,613
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:56am Jan 22, 2008 8:56am
Quoting rudyray
I took some paper trades yesterday night (04:00 GMT -- 11:00 EST). There were round bottoms in GBP/USD, EUR/USD. I've posted my charts of the two. Trades were as follows.

EUR/USD
P 1.4439
SL 1.4392 below the signal candle
TP 1.4500 at the local resistance line above.

GBP/USD
P 1.9426
SL 1.9366 on trendline (can be seen on chart) and below signal candle
TP 1.9527 at 21EMA

In both cases, I got stopped out before the price went the way I wanted it to. Did I place my stops too close? I thought that the points I chose made sense.

R
hi rudyray,

countertrend trades are very risky especially when the volume is as high as it is
on e/u and g/u. You'll easily get some 60-100 pips before the direction changes.
charts like those don't really invite for countertrend trading. much too risky.

Regards
  • #10,614
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:01am Jan 22, 2008 9:01am
Quoting unlv_tj

HiJackxx, do you normally take the CT trades? If so, do you have much luck with them? Do you come out positive at least 50% of the times, or at least is your risk (stop loss) worth the gains?

I am just curious. I often stay away from CT trades, but after reading through "Trading In The Zone" I realize that some loss is expected, to take the risks it takes to become a full time trader.
Sorry for the late reply, I was away cuz I had something to do outdoor. My GU trade got stopped by 46 pips because of the tail formed lower than the previous bull support. The risk always comes in first because most of the time i triggered my position @ 4hr candle, it goes to the opposite of my direction for instant -10 or more.
But again, most of the time in the end price doesn't touch the SL if the price does not go across the support lines, which then sooner would probably goes into the TP.
And after that, I set my trade to BE as soon as I get into +25 pips.
My first trade was a failure with -46 pips, and now I have short hanging approx. +28 pips. Hope it goes short all the way to somewhere around 1.91xx for a long term, maybe? or it might just go back and hit my BreakEvenPoint .
  • #10,615
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:24am Jan 22, 2008 9:24am
ashes:
i see ur usdchfd short is now in profit.well done
i think bernanke loves u
usdcad:
do u want to go down?u'r breaking ur trendline.if u close below 21 i'll short u
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #10,616
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:38am Jan 22, 2008 9:38am
another BE. Sigh ...
  • #10,617
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:42am Jan 22, 2008 9:42am
Quoting bshadroo
ashes:
i see ur usdchfd short is now in profit.well done
i think bernanke loves u
usdcad:
do u want to go down?u'r breaking ur trendline.if u close below 21 i'll short u
hi bshadroo,

for a countertrend on cad I would first wait for the price to test the 21/TL after
having crossed it. then go short. at least that's what Phillip generally suggests.

Regards
  • #10,618
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:46am Jan 22, 2008 9:46am
Fed cut, 100 point bars, no TC's, will trade tomorrow
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,619
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:46am Jan 22, 2008 9:46am
Quoting ashes
hi rudyray,

countertrend trades are very risky especially when the volume is as high as it is
on e/u and g/u. You'll easily get some 60-100 pips before the direction changes.
charts like those don't really invite for countertrend trading. much too risky.

Regards

ashes,

Thanks for the reply.

Noob question: So would it make more sense to trade a round bottom in a ranging market than in a trending one?

R
  • #10,620
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:56am Jan 22, 2008 9:56am
Quoting rudyray
ashes,

Thanks for the reply.

Noob question: So would it make more sense to trade a round bottom in a ranging market than in a trending one?

R
yes, a ranging market is more the kind of place to trade round bottoms.
but as an advice, try trading rather trendcontinuation patterns off the macd
in conjunction with marketrhythm around the ma's,
than countertrend patterns. That's a much safer way to trade.

Regards
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