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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,501
  • Jan 22, 2008 6:29am Jan 22, 2008 6:29am
I'm going to print this one out and frame it. Once the first target is hit in Aqua, I drew the second fibs in deep pink (I'm trying to get my daughter interested in the markets, so I'm using colors she'd like...I know I know, bad excuse. Don't make me turn in my man card!). The 2nd fibs were hit to the pip. Honestly, two weeks ago I never would have drawn the 2nd fib like that. Since we haven't breached the target price, I'm keeping it up there to see if we can hit it on the other end
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  • #2,502
  • Jan 22, 2008 6:32am Jan 22, 2008 6:32am
Quoting bronxterp
I'm going to print this one out and frame it. Once the first target is hit in Aqua, I drew the second fibs in deep pink (I'm trying to get my daughter interested in the markets, so I'm using colors she'd like...I know I know, bad excuse. Don't make me turn in my man card!). The 2nd fibs were hit to the pip. Honestly, two weeks ago I never would have drawn the 2nd fib like that. Since we haven't breached the target price, I'm keeping it up there to see if we can hit it on the other end
Nice...
just if I consider what skunny told me, the pink fib isn't valid. Nearly no retracement. Although very nice color
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,503
  • Jan 22, 2008 6:53am Jan 22, 2008 6:53am
Understood pip pirate, I'll definately start to make my fibs shorter. As for some of them including wicks and some not, first of all, I'm still a little (did I say a little? I meant a lot) unsure about exact placement of the fibs and secondly it is a 15 min chart; when I pulled the fibs on the time frames mentioned, they all included wicks. Any help in placeing fibs correctly though, would be greatly appreciated. And I don't think I've gotten a chance to thank all the helpful traders on this thread and especially Skunny, who has been generous enough to introduce this thought provoking way to look at the markets.

Here's a 30 min chart... with more failed fibs
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Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,504
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:25am Jan 22, 2008 7:25am
What is with these moves on the GJ. In the blink of an eye it jumped 150 pips just then. I am wondering if that is real price or broker shenanigans. I am with Velocity 4x.
  • #2,505
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:31am Jan 22, 2008 7:31am
For those that may have missed it:

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent.
The Committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.
The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
Appreciable downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was William Poole, who did not believe that current conditions justified policy action before the regularly scheduled meeting next week. Absent and not voting was Frederic S. Mishkin.
In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and Minneapolis.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 22, 2008 08:25 ET (13:25 GMT)

Edit: and the ECB's not happy....take care if you're trading, better to stay out until the dust settles.

2008.01.22 13:26:35 ECB's Stark: Any Artificial Output Stimulus Doomed To Fail
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,506
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:24am Jan 22, 2008 8:24am
Now seems to be an appropriate time to ask a question I've been wondering about for awhile. With this outrageous upmove giving us a new swing high...how does this relate to our fibs? When drawing them, should we ignore that whole spike?
  • #2,507
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:33am Jan 22, 2008 8:33am
Quoting 24HourTrader
Now seems to be an appropriate time to ask a question I've been wondering about for awhile. With this outrageous upmove giving us a new swing high...how does this relate to our fibs? When drawing them, should we ignore that whole spike?
Hi 24,

I have a 168 profit level hit on EJ by the spike and then price reversed, so it looks as tho price behaviour was ok. I've not been doing this long enough to have any real knowledge or experience tho.
  • #2,508
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:35am Jan 22, 2008 8:35am
Quoting 24HourTrader
Now seems to be an appropriate time to ask a question I've been wondering about for awhile. With this outrageous upmove giving us a new swing high...how does this relate to our fibs? When drawing them, should we ignore that whole spike?
I think that's a question for Skunny - but for me personally, I count it as a valid move, but remember I trade off short TFs.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,509
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:41am Jan 22, 2008 8:41am
Quoting seb123
Hi Sizz,
here is my GU daily chart, the green fib for the 2 bar range corresponds to Skunny's hourly set up from yesterday. I had several more single and double bar fibs on here but it was a real mess, too much grape juice I think!. Hope this helps.
S.E.B. to the 1 and 2 and 3!!!,

Thanks my chart ended 3 bars back since no likey 162 level but I see what you are saying. Yeah charting and trading under the sway of Bacchus is a recipe for pain akin to chumming for sharks with your razor cut face...

I look back and I am like who drew these?? an escaped lunatic.. a smartish orangatang? wait we traded them??? ahhh j/k hehehe those are the hazards of being a dodo.sigh

also wowow on the fed.. what a nutbar day. can't wait to throw some of my crud kicking fibs on the charts;-P
  • #2,510
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:44am Jan 22, 2008 8:44am
WHOA just fibbed this move from previous swing high to our low and look what we have...DEAD ON the 61.8%! I guess when Skunny awhile back said even news wont disrupt cycles he wasn't joking... though this also happens to be the previous days high so that might be what stopped it. The question though now would be does the 138% of this fib have any meaning?
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  • #2,511
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:54am Jan 22, 2008 8:54am
Quoting sizzler
S.E.B. to the 1 and 2 and 3!!!,

Thanks my chart ended 3 bars back since no likey 162 level but I see what you are saying. Yeah charting and trading under the sway of Bacchus is a recipe for pain akin to chumming for sharks with your razor cut face...

I look back and I am like who drew these?? an escaped lunatic.. a smartish orangatang? wait we traded them??? ahhh j/k hehehe those are the hazards of being a dodo.sigh

also wowow on the fed.. what a nutbar day. can't wait to throw some of my crud kicking fibs on the charts;-P
sizzler, Good luck with your fibs, been an interesting morning.
  • #2,512
  • Jan 22, 2008 10:38am Jan 22, 2008 10:38am
Quoting seb123
sizzler, Good luck with your fibs, been an interesting morning.
SEB123

I know.. I am pretty much just waiting this out My fibnometric need more testing I jumped the gun last night and though I nailed it. but.. blown by 3-4 pips. I might even just break until London cycles through it. I am in no hurry. PLus I have theories to destroy and bad fibs to draw

I am starting to think also from recharting some of Skunny's charts that this ISN'T always Pip perfect. I mean... if I am hitting or missing by like 1-10 pips lets say... that is pretty good to trade depending on the tf...right? what kind of accuracy is everyone looking for/happy with?



mildly entertaining non fib tangent side note,

I just got an email from a friend who is a Financial Advisor. I talked to him a month back about us equities and how i was tp'ing whatever short term money I had in that market out at around 13,8 not based on fibs since I am oh so, so so so ,so far at them.

I actually liquidated one of my accounts with him hence the call. I was shocked he noticed since it was so small.

And he chuckled letting me know that was a mistake. You buy and hold. Duh. or you buy more on the way down. plus he wasn;t really sure anyting bad was going to happen. How could anyone let it? All talk hadn;t I been watching the news fed cut rates thing will be fine.

I am no great shakes out of the traders on the thread I am prolly a strong 3.5-4 to their 10 but even I saw this.. if the DJIA cracks 11940 we are toasted to like 10,6 ( this is just eyeing no fibs)

anywho the email I just got was AMAZED at my prediction that the stock market would tumble to these levels...hellllo it is charting 101..look at it..

Who are these people and how are they trained? I weep for peoples porfolios, pensions and 401ks... he wanted me to buy some mutual funds..right then. !?

If this continues, today is the day that elects Hillary clinton. Sigh.

anywho back to fibs, chex mix and cherry soda.

Sizz
  • #2,513
  • Jan 22, 2008 10:54am Jan 22, 2008 10:54am
Quoting sizzler
SEB123

I know.. I am pretty much just waiting this out My fibnometric need more testing I jumped the gun last night and though I nailed it. but.. blown by 3-4 pips. I might even just break until London cycles through it. I am in no hurry. PLus I have theories to destroy and bad fibs to draw

I am starting to think also from recharting some of Skunny's charts that this ISN'T always Pip perfect. I mean... if I am hitting or missing by like 1-10 pips lets say... that is pretty good to trade depending on the tf...right? what kind of accuracy is everyone looking for/happy with?

Sizz, as long as my TP is hit at the 138 level, I'm happy. I want to get these fibs down so that I really know what I'm doing in the future, so I'm keen to get them as accurate as possible while Skunny and everyone else is here to help out. Some are hit to the pip, some are not. Not sure if thats the way it is or if I'm makeing an error. Sometimes there just is just no fib available that will give you a pip perfect hit. This thread was started with the holy moly in mind so if its to do with that I'm keen to learn what I can.


mildly entertaining non fib tangent side note,

I just got an email from a friend who is a Financial Advisor. I talked to him a month back about us equities and how i was tp'ing whatever short term money I had in that market out at around 13,8 not based on fibs since I am oh so, so so so ,so far at them.

I actually liquidated one of my accounts with him hence the call. I was shocked he noticed since it was so small.

And he chuckled letting me know that was a mistake. You buy and hold. Duh. or you buy more on the way down. plus he wasn;t really sure anyting bad was going to happen. How could anyone let it? All talk hadn;t I been watching the news fed cut rates thing will be fine.

I am no great shakes out of the traders on the thread I am prolly a strong 3.5-4 to their 10 but even I saw this.. if the DJIA cracks 11940 we are toasted to like 10,6 ( this is just eyeing no fibs)

anywho the email I just got was AMAZED at my prediction that the stock market would tumble to these levels...hellllo it is charting 101..look at it..

Who are these people and how are they trained? I weep for peoples porfolios, pensions and 401ks... he wanted me to buy some mutual funds..right then. !?

If this continues, today is the day that elects Hillary clinton. Sigh.

anywho back to fibs, chex mix and cherry soda.

Sizz
Sounds like its a salesman trying to unload his stock before the market crashes!
  • #2,514
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:21am Jan 22, 2008 11:21am
Quoting seb123
Sounds like its a salesman trying to unload his stock before the market crashes!

Sheesh.. I know. so wait... all that Citi stock he had me buy last month.. hehe

At this point in time, if I were him I would be looking at metals, energy AUD, CHF and YEN. not BUYING equity funds like a manaic. cripes might just move to Austrailia if this keeps up

Accuracy

Alright that is good to know. the guaca - mole looks delicious so I want to make sure I have the right recipe before I have guests over. Last time I thought I had it right and the party was a disaster.

this is a chart I redrew. but it has a 8ish pip gap and a slop hit on the polar tp. I could draw using methods I understand and currently espouse so I guess I can start to build fuzz into charts and test also different pairs have different legs on them.

paraphrase Skunny
- I never stay in a trade too long no matter how RIGHT I might be

- I left a lot of pips on the table this week because I had a HUNCH and got out no losers just not as winny of winners

- One of these days Dagoods.... Bang, zoom, straight to the moon!

so yin and yang and Kramden.

Sizz
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  • #2,515
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:45am Jan 22, 2008 11:45am
Quoting sizzler
Sheesh.. I know. so wait... all that Citi stock he had me buy last month.. hehe

At this point in time, if I were him I would be looking at metals, energy AUD, CHF and YEN. not BUYING equity funds like a manaic. cripes might just move to Austrailia if this keeps up

Accuracy

Alright that is good to know. the guaca - mole looks delicious so I want to make sure I have the right recipe before I have guests over. Last time I thought I had it right and the party was a disaster.

this is a chart I redrew. but it has a 8ish pip gap and a slop hit on the polar tp. I could draw using methods I understand and currently espouse so I guess I can start to build fuzz into charts and test also different pairs have different legs on them.

paraphrase Skunny
- I never stay in a trade too long no matter how RIGHT I might be

- I left a lot of pips on the table this week because I had a HUNCH and got out no losers just not as winny of winners

- One of these days Dagoods.... Bang, zoom, straight to the moon!

so yin and yang and Kramden.

Sizz
Sizz, you caught me taking a break so I had a quick look at your chart. here are some fibs that I could find, I think a few hit to the pip.
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  • #2,516
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:25pm Jan 22, 2008 12:25pm
Quoting seb123
Sizz, you caught me taking a break so I had a quick look at your chart. here are some fibs that I could find, I think a few hit to the pip.
Very nice SEB.
yup The big one was the range fib and you play fibs inside or not. It is a question of perspective. That one could have be drawn simply on the 4H. scaled into 1hr for confirmation and traded in 15 min or 1hr. IMO>

I don't know what you are doing right now but if you are fibbing:

there is a good example IMO of price respecting fibs despite market data at the 15 min Franc Yen just shoot ups and nails supply.and turns around.. and EU 15m completing right on the ear of the dragon head.


Sizz
  • #2,517
  • Jan 22, 2008 1:06pm Jan 22, 2008 1:06pm
Skunny - ummmm - Mr. President, Your Killin Me with these Gann Lines. Would you comment?
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  • #2,518
  • Jan 22, 2008 3:23pm Jan 22, 2008 3:23pm
Quoting seb123
Sizz, you caught me taking a break so I had a quick look at your chart. here are some fibs that I could find, I think a few hit to the pip.
GREAT CHART!!! I CAN UNDERSTAND THIS ONE
  • #2,519
  • Jan 22, 2008 4:58pm Jan 22, 2008 4:58pm
Hi,
I am just posting to say that this is a very good thread and I am following it closely.
Thanks.

Now you may continue with with the good work .
  • #2,520
  • Jan 22, 2008 6:56pm Jan 22, 2008 6:56pm
I just picked out a random time frame of days on the 1 hour chart for the GBP/USD and drew some fibs on the daily hi/lo range. The next day if it broke the hi or low it acheived the 138 and in most cases more. Of course, I am not drawing these fibs on significant swings of s/r that would probably show a more exact target at the 138 but it is nice to know that out of 8 days there were 8 trades that hit the target. The only exception is what Pip HIt Man wrote where that day it traded inside the previous days hi/lo range but the following day it hit the 138 of the prior two days. AWESOME!!!!!!

Daniel
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