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haniam's anti Big Dogs trades

  • #441
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:18pm Jan 21, 2008 12:18pm
thank u a lot haniam !
  • #442
  • Jan 21, 2008 1:02pm Jan 21, 2008 1:02pm
Could you inform us about your thoughts on Session personalities? I would highly appreciate it.

Regards,
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #443
  • Jan 21, 2008 3:00pm Jan 21, 2008 3:00pm
Quoting haniam
Yes howard. They are still active. But they are in vacation in the US today until wednesday. So if you do not receive a confirmation email by thursday, try registering again.
Thanks a lot, that maybe the reason
Regards
  • #444
  • Jan 22, 2008 2:10am Jan 22, 2008 2:10am
Quoting haniam
The buy on support @1.4520 gave a bounce to 1.4560, the WS1 and Daily S1 resistance, and it was easy here to close and reverse the position targeting 1.4525 again.

The sell of the break @1.4520 has seen it's first target hit @1.4465. Moving SL to BE and going now to target 2.
The sell of the break @1.4520 has seen it's second target hit @1.4380. Moving SL to 1.4470 and going now to target 3 @1.4315
  • #445
  • Jan 22, 2008 10:44am Jan 22, 2008 10:44am
What a Big Dog Play we witnessed in the 7 past days.

We first wintness a sudden down move from 1.48xx to 1.43xx in 4 open days, with no reason but a certain claim that the crisis in the US market may reach Europe.

It appeared today that this manipulation had only the goal of suddenly cutting .75 of the interest rate in the US as they did today. We witnessed an almost 300 pips move today! EU will still go higher, but does not seem to have the strenght to break the all time high even with the expectation of another .50 cut next week. At least it seems that this is the goal of the BD, and in this view, if ever the EU approach these levels next week before the cut, they will probably not cut or only cut .25 to avoid a dicisive break to the up.

And once the market absorb the chock of these cuts, it will go down to break the 1.43 opening the way to 1.4 and 1.37 levels.

I will be looking for good oportunities to go short for long term positions in the coming days, unless EU manages to break 1.5
  • #446
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:01am Jan 22, 2008 11:01am
Quoting haniam
What a Big Dog Play we witnessed in the 7 past days.

We first wintness a sudden down move from 1.48xx to 1.43xx in 4 open days, with no reason but a certain claim that the crisis in the US market may reach Europe.

It appeared today that this manipulation had only the goal of suddenly cutting .75 of the interest rate in the US as they did today. We witnessed an almost 300 pips move today! EU will still go higher, but does not seem to have the strenght to break the all time high even with the expectation of another .50 cut next week. At least it seems that this is the goal of the BD, and in this view, if ever the EU approach these levels next week before the cut, they will probably not cut or only cut .25 to avoid a dicisive break to the up.

And once the market absorb the chock of these cuts, it will go down to break the 1.43 opening the way to 1.4 and 1.37 levels.

I will be looking for good oportunities to go short for long term positions in the coming days, unless EU manages to break 1.5
if fed cut 0.50% again, 1.50 its just a given.
after 1.50 is hit, expect banks around the world to dump usd like crazy.

still the view in the market is fed is a step ahead of other banks and probably thats giving some support to usd. if not, an USD minicrash is possible.
  • #447
  • Jan 23, 2008 4:23am Jan 23, 2008 4:23am
Quoting khanderoo
Could you inform us about your thoughts on Session personalities? I would highly appreciate it.

Regards,
We have three main sessions in the Forex market: The Asian, the London and the NY session.

Every session has its own 'personality'. Since every pair has it's own 'personality' too, we'll have many different kind of behavior taking these combinations into consideration.

EU is the most traded pair and I will give some leads about it in relation with the different session as I see it:

Asian session:
In general, EU tends to play during Asian session in a 20-35 pips range, depending on the previous session volatility.

But, if we have witnessed very high volatility during the previous sessions as we did yesterday, it can continue to trend more. We witnessed the last All time peak high during this session, with a 100 pips break up, when most traders where sleeping, after some high volatility days. It was directly followed by a 150 pips counter move on London open.

London session:
It is more driven by technical factors for the first 2-3-hours. Main news will come around 9:00 GMT for EU and 9:30 GMT for GU but will affect both pairs and the related ones.

NY Session:
It is more driven by News at 13:30 GMT, 30 minutes after opening, sometimes followed by more news at 15:00 GMT. Most news trader are active at these times.

This session often counter balance the London move when the markets are ranging.

We witness in general lot of volatility for the main 3 hours where both London and NY sessions overlap.

The opening and close of every session give some moves that can be traded too.
  • #448
  • Jan 23, 2008 4:57am Jan 23, 2008 4:57am
Following is what I have learned from Mr. Hani & others. It's a combination of Main Supports/Resistances + Fibo + Candle Patterns & Pivots.
If you watch out for the important news, when they come, and Try to control your emotions by starting from very low capital risk with patients and than grow it by a plan:

YOU WILL BE SURE A BIG WINNER.

BUT I would say the most biggest winner is who learns, shares & grows.

Thank you.
Mohammad
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-080123.jpg Size: 120 KB
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #449
  • Jan 23, 2008 5:29am Jan 23, 2008 5:29am
Quoting khanderoo
Following is what I have learned from Mr. Hani & others. It's a combination of Main Supports/Resistances + Fibo + Candle Patterns & Pivots.
If you watch out for the important news, when they come, and Try to control your emotions by starting from very low capital risk with patients and than grow it by a plan:

YOU WILL BE SURE A BIG WINNER.

BUT I would say the most biggest winner is who learns, shares & grows.

Thank you.
Mohammad
As usual, you learned very fast because you have an open minded.

Very neat post and chart without all these 'useless' uncountable indicators. This shows that you understand well the rhythm and the 'emotion' of the market.

I propose you post the same chart updated at the end of london session if you can. This will show how effective what you are saying is.

Continue the good work and wish you plenty of pips.

Hani
  • #450
  • Jan 23, 2008 10:44am Jan 23, 2008 10:44am
Chart attached. Kindly check & add your comments if needed.

Regards,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Session Personalites.jpg Size: 125 KB
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #451
  • Jan 23, 2008 11:07am Jan 23, 2008 11:07am
Quoting khanderoo
Chart attached. Kindly check & add your comments if needed.

Regards,
Nice chart and comments.

The bear move started at the London session continued in the NY session since there were no fondamental news and both sessions were driven by technical factors. So EU did bounce on the expected support @1.4520 back to the Pivot line where it is trading right now.

Buying 'blindly' at this good support level would have given an easy 40 pips with a 1:2 R:R (20 pips risk, 40 pips award)

We can expect calm trading now, maybe some small moves around NY close.
Good time to take a rest and prepare tomorrow trading.

Well done Khanderoo.

The question would remain, how have you done in your trading today?
  • #452
  • Jan 23, 2008 1:00pm Jan 23, 2008 1:00pm
haniam i would ask u if sometimes, i can post here one of my loss trade(based on S/R pivots fib trendlines), and u can comment it.

anyway thank u for your work and help

from italy
  • #453
  • Jan 23, 2008 1:58pm Jan 23, 2008 1:58pm
I have started with only risking 0.1% of my trading capital on each trade. My goals are as follow:

1. 1st week trading:

a. Add positive percentage to my balance each day.
b. Targeting only 25 pips/day & the rest paper trading.
c. Maximum two trade per day & analyzing my emotions.

- So far 3/5 has passed with success. If totally passed it will give me confidence on my trading style while I observe my emotions & try to control them by my mind. If not passed, I will analyze what I have done & try again.

2. 1st month trading:

a. Adding positive percentage to my balance each week.
b. Targeting only 25 pips/day & the rest paper trading.

-Looking to put this trading style deep in my unconscious mind with powerful confidence & pip results and without any emotional balance growing (to kill the greed)

3. The Next Months:

a. doubling the risk on my trading capital (0.2%,0.4%,...)
b. Trying to perform like the previous month.
c. If succeeded, repeating this step. If not, Going one step
back & trying again.
d. My previous month equity would be a cut for my drawdown.

-By this plan, I will grow my risk under complete control & if failed to control my emotions, there will be a step back to were I can control it.
-Also if I could keep up the good work (without your help this was impossible), I will have a continuous exponentially growing balance. And this is the reward for patience.

I would be thankful if you add your suggestions to this plan.

Regards,
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #454
  • Jan 24, 2008 12:50am Jan 24, 2008 12:50am
Quoting john15689
haniam i would ask u if sometimes, i can post here one of my loss trade(based on S/R pivots fib trendlines), and u can comment it.

anyway thank u for your work and help

from italy
john15689,

yes you can post here one of your losses trade (based on S/R pivots fib trendlines.

I propose that you post too one of your wins with comments, and maybe start by posting your trade plan like Bakuli and Lee have already done.

Wish you best of trading,

Hani
  • #455
  • Jan 24, 2008 1:02am Jan 24, 2008 1:02am
Quoting khanderoo
I have started with only risking 0.1% of my trading capital on each trade. My goals are as follow:


1. 1st week trading:

a. Add positive percentage to my balance each day.


b. Targeting only 25 pips/day & the rest paper trading.


c. Maximum two trade per day & analyzing my emotions.

- So far 3/5 has passed with success. If totally passed it will give me confidence on my trading style while I observe my emotions & try to control them by my mind. If not passed, I will analyze what I have done & try again.

2. 1st month trading:

a. Adding positive percentage to my balance each week.


b. Targeting only 25 pips/day & the rest paper trading.

-Looking to put this trading style deep in my unconscious mind with powerful confidence & pip results and without any emotional balance growing (to kill the greed)

3. The Next Months:

a. doubling the risk on my trading capital (0.2%,0.4%,...)


b. Trying to perform like the previous month.


c. If succeeded, repeating this step. If not, Going one step


back & trying again.


d. My previous month equity would be a cut for my drawdown.

-By this plan, I will grow my risk under complete control & if failed to control my emotions, there will be a step back to were I can control it.
-Also if I could keep up the good work (without your help this was impossible), I will have a continuous exponentially growing balance. And this is the reward for patience.

I would be thankful if you add your suggestions to this plan.

Regards,
Very nice presentation Khanderoo.
It is well done and structured in good successful steps.

I would just advise you not to systematically double your risk every month as proposed in step 3, but increment progressively by 0.1%

Indeed, when you double your risk, you will fall in the trap of fear and discouragement as soon as you get 2 or 3 losses in a row, as the losses will be more than the wins your mind is used to get the previous month, and fear will come back in force. And you will start doubting about your abilities, the system you are using and the way you are trading.

I know this will take double time to get to 1% or 2% risk per trade, but as you know, patience pays...

Continue the great work,

Hani
  • #456
  • Jan 24, 2008 2:17pm Jan 24, 2008 2:17pm
I introduce the basis of my plan:

1) I draw all R/S form 1day(TF) to 15m(TF); If useful, i also draw various trandlines to identify the trends

2) I draw fib lines in two ways: In the classic way i see the possible bounce(and if they coincide with S/R); In the second way I see the possible intermezzo targets ( u can see it in the chart below)

3) i look for some bear/bearish candle-pattern in the place of possible bounce (ex: on S/R, Trendlines etc.), and i wait: that the minimum/maximum of this candle is overcome (about entry)

4)the exit is based on targets or on a trailing stops (on the minimum of the preceding candle)
---------------------------
ABOUT CHART BELOW:

Circle: entry
Green lines: main S/R
orange lines: fib (classic way)
red lines: fib (possible targets) ,( i do not know say in english how i draw them, but i take in consideration small s/r and range)


ps: probably i did not take the setup in blue circle becouse was under support and the candle-pattern was not very clear.


-i'm not able to upload this link as attachment, i do not know why
-anyway the link is: http://aycu38.webshots.com/image/405...9386537_rs.jpg
  • #457
  • Jan 24, 2008 2:24pm Jan 24, 2008 2:24pm
Obviously haniam i'm happy if u can comment my plan and chart.
I always thank you for your free work and help.

I wish u good trades

From Italy
  • #458
  • Jan 25, 2008 2:03am Jan 25, 2008 2:03am
Forex market seems bullish today. Most currencies tends to go higher, even once with opposite correleation. USD/CAD is slightly bearish, expecting some bad news in NY session, but is near some good supports.

I expect some retracement which will give an opportunity to go long on most currencies.
  • #459
  • Jan 25, 2008 3:55am Jan 25, 2008 3:55am
Quoting john15689
I introduce the basis of my plan:

1) I draw all R/S form 1day(TF) to 15m(TF); If useful, i also draw various trandlines to identify the trends
If you can not draw trendlines, it means probably that in the TF you are using, the prices are ranging.

The top/down analysis is important to be done in the begining of the trading to determine general view of the currency you wish to trade and try to find good opportunities.

2) I draw fib lines in two ways: In the classic way i see the possible bounce(and if they coincide with S/R); In the second way I see the possible intermezzo targets ( u can see it in the chart below)

Fib. lines can be powerfull mainly when they are at the same level of a current R/S

3) i look for some bear/bearish candle-pattern in the place of possible bounce (ex: on S/R, Trendlines etc.), and i wait: that the minimum/maximum of this candle is overcome (about entry)

Candle patterns are good to watch and they may give some hint on the market direction. In your trading plan, you should define what are the patterns that you look for.

4)the exit is based on targets or on a trailing stops (on the minimum of the preceding candle)

When is it based on targets, and when on trailing stop?

I think this is a good strat for a trading plan. But you have to put much more information in your final trading plan. And much more exact details.

Try thinking as if a machine would be trading it and it need exact conditions to enter or exit the market.

The daily plan is different, like the ones posted previously with exact entries and exact exits, with eventually reasons to enter and reasons to exit. They shoud be based on a trading plan.

---------------------------
ABOUT CHART BELOW:

Circle: entry
Green lines: main S/R
orange lines: fib (classic way)
red lines: fib (possible targets) ,( i do not know say in english how i draw them, but i take in consideration small s/r and range)

As much as this is based on your trading plan, this is valid.
I personally do not rely on Oanda charts and prefer MT4 ones as they are constant, have much more utilities and can be worked on in offline mode.

ps: probably i did not take the setup in blue circle becouse was under support and the candle-pattern was not very clear.
If you extend your black line, which constitute a support, conbining with the candle pattern, you may see that it was a good entry

-i'm not able to upload this link as attachment, i do not know why

-anyway the link is: http://aycu38.webshots.com/image/405...9386537_rs.jpg
See comments in blue.
I added below your chart with the black dots added for future references.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080124-AJ-15min-John.gif Size: 95 KB


Continue the good work.

Hani
  • #460
  • Jan 25, 2008 12:53pm Jan 25, 2008 12:53pm
I sincerely appreciate your advices and comments. Thank you haniam

About candle-patterns: i mainly look for "long shadows", but sometimes also "short day", "spinning top/bottom", "doji".

About exits: i mainly use trailing stop. I usually use targets in range. However i am still working about "exit" becouse i can not see easly targets. If you can comment about this, i appreciate it.

In the future charts i will try to be more precise

good trading

From italy
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