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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,441
  • Jan 21, 2008 7:56am Jan 21, 2008 7:56am
Quoting Pip Hunter
The reason I ask is because the G$ chart hits the 1st target and once it bounced, I would have adjusted both the s/r of that fib to that point and to the closest low. Which can be done with another fib and leaving that one in place. But I'm not sure if that's what you would do?
That works
Robonacci com
  • #2,442
  • Jan 21, 2008 9:20am Jan 21, 2008 9:20am
Wow, just checked in a bit to see if the "Jr Fibsters" have conquered the "Skunnyfibnitque" and see about 20 more pages to wade through!!! AAAAAAAAARRRGHHH!
Hehe, gonna have to fire up dad's printer and swipe a ream of paper to print the latest hints from the kind teacher and astute students to fill my return trip on the train. Should be home on Thursday and in gear for good by next monday.

Thanks again to the Skunnster and his loyal minions for all the thought provoking posts!
  • #2,443
  • Jan 21, 2008 9:22am Jan 21, 2008 9:22am
Quoting Pip Hunter
The reason I ask is because the G$ chart hits the 1st target and once it bounced, I would have adjusted both the s/r of that fib to that point and to the closest low. Which can be done with another fib and leaving that one in place. But I'm not sure if that's what you would do?

Piphunter,

Something I have been trying based on Skunny's charts and observation. Is setting a fib like that and once it bounces leaving it be. that is a strong bounce IMO. So I would leave the fib in play and wait for a break of the polar 100 to trade. unless it breached my original 13. I am slow so the less fibs the better

also trying to figure out how reliable it is not only to take a quick market order in the other direction ,BUT to actually use pa/experiance to determine if that bounce will hit the other 13.
SKunny

I understand your fib(I think) i could be wrong but it looks llike you used the Pin as your 100? , but other then 5 fibs line I am so far having a spot o trouble picking that place. It has to be the end of some fib.. but do I need lower tfs to find them maybe?

I have a fib from 1.9664-1.9481 which if it weren't so wrong(like 7 pip slop) would make sense.. as the preceding fib. any help pyschiatric or trading is appreciated hehe

TGIM


Sizz
  • #2,444
  • Jan 21, 2008 9:43am Jan 21, 2008 9:43am
Quoting 24HourTrader
Has the president of the universe confirmed whether it has to at least hit the 38% for anyone yet? I remember some were discussing it awhile back...the only thing that makes me wonder is how in some strong trends price will not make it back that far before continuing. Great charts by the way boys and girls. If we keep this up we'll be sure to land cushy positions from the prez.

So lets take a look at some developments on the Dragon. First of all the purple fib is from the high and low of Friday, target hit with a pleasant bounce. That is also right where the 100% level of our main fib for the hourly chart(and about a millon other 138% fib levels end there as well). For the short term, we can see the agua fib has hit its target, but not yet broken. The yellow fib should come into play if that level is broken. Any way you look at it, we should be seeing some nice downside this week.
We were wondering if it's true that fibs have to be validated by a PB to a inner fib level (.38,.62) to be used?
PipHunter
  • #2,445
  • Jan 21, 2008 10:22am Jan 21, 2008 10:22am
Quote
The reason I ask is because the G$ chart hits the 1st target and once it bounced, I would have adjusted both the s/r of that fib to that point and to the closest low. Which can be done with another fib and leaving that one in place. But I'm not sure if that's what you would do?

Hi Pip

Would you have drawn your next fib from the next low to the high like this?

If so do you think this would explain why the first breach of the 100 on the original fib failed (it reversed from the 138 extension of the second fib), but was ok second time?

Hope this all makes sense.
Attached Image
  • #2,446
  • Jan 21, 2008 10:51am Jan 21, 2008 10:51am
Quoting sizzler
Piphunter,

Something I have been trying based on Skunny's charts and observation. Is setting a fib like that and once it bounces leaving it be. that is a strong bounce IMO. So I would leave the fib in play and wait for a break of the polar 100 to trade. unless it breached my original 13. I am slow so the less fibs the better

also trying to figure out how reliable it is not only to take a quick market order in the other direction ,BUT to actually use pa/experiance to determine if that bounce will hit the other 13.
SKunny

I understand your fib(I think) i could be wrong but it looks llike you used the Pin as your 100? , but other then 5 fibs line I am so far having a spot o trouble picking that place. It has to be the end of some fib.. but do I need lower tfs to find them maybe?

I have a fib from 1.9664-1.9481 which if it weren't so wrong(like 7 pip slop) would make sense.. as the preceding fib. any help pyschiatric or trading is appreciated hehe

TGIM


Sizz
Hi Sizzler,

I've been looking over Skunny's chart too, wondering how he got to that, especially with the previous fib not seeming to work out. Then I took a look at the daily bars and fibbed them from Dec 31. Very interesting!!
  • #2,447
  • Jan 21, 2008 11:05am Jan 21, 2008 11:05am
Quoting Diceman
Hi Pip

Would you have drawn your next fib from the next low to the high like this?

If so do you think this would explain why the first breach of the 100 on the original fib failed (it reversed from the 138 extension of the second fib), but was ok second time?

Hope this all makes sense.
Yes that's where I would have drawn them. And would definately seem to explain the bounce at the 138 ext. Now I'm wondering how many other times inner fib ext's have made price bounce with only a partial breach of the main fib? Something to look back on. Would be nice to see it coming wouldn't it
PipHunter
  • #2,448
  • Jan 21, 2008 11:20am Jan 21, 2008 11:20am
Quoting sizzler
Piphunter,

Something I have been trying based on Skunny's charts and observation. Is setting a fib like that and once it bounces leaving it be. that is a strong bounce IMO. So I would leave the fib in play and wait for a break of the polar 100 to trade. unless it breached my original 13. I am slow so the less fibs the better

also trying to figure out how reliable it is not only to take a quick market order in the other direction ,BUT to actually use pa/experiance to determine if that bounce will hit the other 13.
SKunny

I understand your fib(I think) i could be wrong but it looks llike you used the Pin as your 100? , but other then 5 fibs line I am so far having a spot o trouble picking that place. It has to be the end of some fib.. but do I need lower tfs to find them maybe?

I have a fib from 1.9664-1.9481 which if it weren't so wrong(like 7 pip slop) would make sense.. as the preceding fib. any help pyschiatric or trading is appreciated hehe

TGIM


Sizz
Hey Sizz! I think your right and Skunny basically confirms it by his chart. To leave it in place would be the right thing to do. However it doesn't stop anyone from also pulling another fib using that 138 a the high and finding the closes low that makes sense like what Diceman illustrated after your post. The benefit being able to see a potential bounce on the newer fibs 138 as it exits the high/low of the orig unmoved fib.

This has turned out to be a huge eye opener! Not just this, but everything Skunny has so kindly given us.
PipHunter
  • #2,449
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:09pm Jan 21, 2008 12:09pm
Quoting Skunny
Just remember Issy, the lower the time frame the more to keep track of.....some have the mental capacity to do it....but, I don't...lol
Would I be right to assume your advice here is because the higher time frames are always king? So if your using the 5m,15m etc chart and it misses it's 138 ext and sharply reverses. It's possible it's hit a higher time frame's 138 ext.? Is price sometimes committed only to reaching it's 138 ext on higher time frames? Disregarding some breaches on a lower time frames like the 5m or 15m? Never to bother to come back to complete the 138 ext (cycle)?
PipHunter
  • #2,450
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:40pm Jan 21, 2008 12:40pm
Quoting Pip Hunter
We were wondering if it's true that fibs have to be validated by a PB to a inner fib level (.38,.62) to be used?
Yes Mr. President. Please confirm. Thank you.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #2,451
  • Jan 21, 2008 2:23pm Jan 21, 2008 2:23pm
Hopefully sending over all these charts is ok. I am looking for conformation of the fib placements based on where Skunny said "You should draw your fibs so you are in a cycle or a completed cycle." I just want to be absolutely clear I understand the principle correctly. Anyone want to comment? Skunny?
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PipHunter
  • #2,452
  • Edited 3:01pm Jan 21, 2008 2:26pm | Edited 3:01pm
Quoting seb123
Hi Sizzler,

I've been looking over Skunny's chart too, wondering how he got to that, especially with the previous fib not seeming to work out. Then I took a look at the daily bars and fibbed them from Dec 31. Very interesting!!

I know right have been playing with Tfs defining ranges..pretty wild. I fear I will be giving up all my pretty shapes and lines some day soon to pop in an out of the charts...no more 9 day trades That is my hope.

Fib the 16th of jan to swing high 17th
then scale on on in for a peekaboo street.

I wasn;t able to lock down what you are seeing as far as putting the fib therre I did complete a bunch of other ones though

For shoots and ladders, use AUd/USD and U/Cad I like them so far for this D1 ranging.

Can you PM or post the chart progression you are seeing on the D1 to get there? I am slow as molasses in January. It is super eye opening I seriously no guff chet, really thought I was going to ahve a heartattack I got so excited... I dig this stuff a lot up and above even coughthemoneycough . GASP!! hehe


Sizz

Edit piphunter charts look nice IMO. I might even throw a lil fibber on the 17:00 one hour bar and flip to 15 min mode.

Also,It doesn;t look like you did this but I think you talked about it and it is something I do here and there, on that fib skunny showed.. when you move the 100 to the tp boom hit to the pip. So I guess I would test leaving the fib in play for the polar 132 target bounce play and then moving the 100 to the positive tp one the the neg tp was hit for more pippin goodness.

So much stuff. You would only need one maybe 2, 15 min plays a day to be really good to go. Cripes most My trades all have like 50-100 pip stops and fuzzy, stratified tps and take "forever" and I lose some! I can fire off quicker, tighter trades and make more money. once I get all of my testing done to my satisfaction . Great stuff. Still blown away
  • #2,453
  • Jan 21, 2008 3:02pm Jan 21, 2008 3:02pm
Piphunter,

I played my G/U fibs a little different. I was watching very closely just before the news candle came out (UK retail sales) resistance was at 1.9725 and just before the report was issued it looked like there was some serious stop hunting going on up to the 1.9720 area, then it got real quiet, and then it dropped like a rock in a matter of seconds. I waited till after it hit bottom and made its retrace before placing my green fib and made some quick pips on that one.

Waited till the weekend was just about over and placed my brown fib and then last night I saw that Fridays low was breached (so I'm figuring were going to see my short opps) but the market just stayed in that narrow channel till it came close to London open so I then went down to the 15M and made some small scalps to the short side only then went to bed.

Woke up and saw one of Skunny's infamous two candle pinbar hi/lo setups and then purple fibbed off of that but wasn't able to trade it.
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trading naked.......
  • #2,454
  • Jan 21, 2008 3:36pm Jan 21, 2008 3:36pm
Hi everybody,

have been reading and re reading for several hours (yes i'm a slow reader English not being my first language) to catch up on todays post. Thanks to the master and all for posting. I was a little lost in the list with not much petrol left in the can. But today was very informative. Great to find some new fuel here. I was just wondering about the retracement to at least the 38 level. Any confirmation on that ?

Thanks Skunny and you guys and girls for this great thread.


LL
  • #2,455
  • Jan 21, 2008 4:09pm Jan 21, 2008 4:09pm
Quoting piphitman
Piphunter,

I played my G/U fibs a little different. I was watching very closely just before the news candle came out (UK retail sales) resistance was at 1.9725 and just before the report was issued it looked like there was some serious stop hunting going on up to the 1.9720 area, then it got real quiet, and then it dropped like a rock in a matter of seconds. I waited till after it hit bottom and made its retrace before placing my green fib and made some quick pips on that one.

Waited till the weekend was just about over and placed my brown fib and then last night I saw that Fridays low was breached (so I'm figuring were going to see my short opps) but the market just stayed in that narrow channel till it came close to London open so I then went down to the 15M and made some small scalps to the short side only then went to bed.

Woke up and saw one of Skunny's infamous two candle pinbar hi/lo setups and then purple fibbed off of that but wasn't able to trade it.
Thanks Hitman! I guess what I was trying to accomplish with the 1hr fib was to find what Skunny descibed as "placement of the fibs in a cycle or at the completion of a cycle". So I was looking for more of a larger fib that wouldn't swing asmuch as you were using. And this may be where I'm having some confusion. I would be using another smaller or inner fib to swing about and trade similar to how you were. For example the post #2424 of Skunny's showed the pinbar (11:00) you noticed, as his 138 target that made in his words, a thing of beauty. He didn't move his fib even though his long 138 ext target was hit. And he said adding a additional fib to the chart to follow along with a new fib works just fine. So I did, and things seem to work out fine since after his pinbar, the new fib's 138 ext was also hit with the pinbar at 16:00. So I guess I'm needing some clarity on whether my thought process is all wrong or not. The larger monthly, weekly and dailey were the ones I was most interested in making sure were right. Any other comments from anyone? Can help El Presidente!
PipHunter
  • #2,456
  • Jan 21, 2008 4:14pm Jan 21, 2008 4:14pm
I used that subject line because when I typed in G for GU 15 min.. that is what auto popped... wierd....I can;t imagine the context... oh well.. Maybe there is a barbarian using my computer..

Any who on the subject of price and retracing and leprechauns. Here is a pot o gold on the GU 15. now if I had my stupid time machine running... I keep ending up in Merry Olde England and get sidetracked at stupid cellar port bars.. fighting the brawny tawny.

you can scale in to a 5 min to look see better on numero dos. .

This is all IMO and test away like it take it hate it leave it. if I am wrong help a brother out


Sizz.
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  • #2,457
  • Jan 21, 2008 4:31pm Jan 21, 2008 4:31pm
I was spending some time using Vhands this weekend on the 1hrly charts but all I was doing was plotting the hi and lo of each daily time period and then watched what happened the following day based on the prior days hi/lo. More times than not as soon as the new days price breached either the high or low of the previous day it was pretty prevalent that it was going to be a long/or short day on that day for the remainder and like today (Monday) price breached Friday low and went all the way down the Friday's 138 extension too.

Now on days where the price stayed within the high/low of the previous day, in the next day following those instances of a inner fib day the price seemed to shoot like a cannon on either side of the 0/100 all the way to the 138 extension.


Watching this price action over the weekend on Vhands is what made me think we were going to be short all day today based on the price breaching the Friday low early in the Asian session.
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trading naked.......
  • #2,458
  • Jan 21, 2008 4:32pm Jan 21, 2008 4:32pm
Quoting sizzler
I used that subject line because when I typed in G for GU 15 min.. that is what auto popped... wierd....I can;t imagine the context... oh well.. Maybe there is a barbarian using my computer..

Any who on the subject of price and retracing and leprechauns. Here is a pot o gold on the GU 15. now if I had my stupid time machine running... I keep ending up in Merry Olde England and get sidetracked at stupid cellar port bars.. fighting the brawny tawny.

you can scale in to a 5 min to look see better on numero dos. .

This is all IMO and test away like it take it hate it leave it. if I am wrong help a brother out


Sizz.

hey Sizz,

i see the retracement of the first fib is before the 0 and for the second it is after it ? does the first count as valid then ?

Btw Love ur posts
  • #2,459
  • Jan 21, 2008 4:36pm Jan 21, 2008 4:36pm
Skunny in this situation, is this a proper place to draw a correct fib?

Charlie
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  • #2,460
  • Jan 21, 2008 4:49pm Jan 21, 2008 4:49pm
I have been following this thread for about 2 weeks now. It's amazing how much improvement I have made in such a short time. Thanks Skunny (& Bo)! I appreciate all the good info. Without all the indicators, I have finally been able to remove the emotion from my trading. I still use a few every now and then, but some habits are hard to break, but I'm bending them slowly but surely. Anybody charts look similar to this?
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