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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,561
  • Jan 19, 2008 1:32pm Jan 19, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting Palmer
brett:

It's also a good idea to draw the trendlines, s/r levels, and channels on the 1hr as well...not too many though. It can get to the point where you can't 'see' any more. Less is better but if you have these on the 1hr it helps to define profit targets. This is even more important when the 4hr is 'stuck'.

Chart:
another wonderfull trade after 10'th jan. long . but one point and some Qs:
p1-u can't draw that trend line befor that last high have been formed so abviously that trend line cant help u when u want to trade becuse when u shorted, the trend line wasnt been formed .look at picture below ,we only have a broken trend befor ur short and if i wanted to trade on that time i whould buy after breaking up the TL but i was not like a buy and i was waiting for a down breakout of that red triangle so i didnt buy.
but the point is here: a sell after breaking up that triangle before any confirmation(some donjis or round top) looks very risky .do u accept?
Q1- where was ur initial stoploss?
Q2-did u look at the smaller TF's for ur trade ?(cause there was a up trendline in m5 and u could sell around 70 when that TL breaked)

thx alot for helping me by ur answer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,562
  • Jan 20, 2008 9:12am Jan 20, 2008 9:12am
Quoting Cinema007
HI jimdandy , i saw in ur charts , there is xxx min left to the next bar and there appear GMT TIME ,LONDON TIME ,NEW YOUR TIME ,etc , how to setup in the MT softwear . and

where download the v104 u used?

thanks and pips for ur kindness..
I dont use v104 anymore.....I have been going thru and putting my charts back to v102.....v104 seems to be a cpu processor hog......see post 10345 on page 690....I downloaded v102 from palmers website. www.fxtradeblog.com in the "tools" section....102 does not have the alert function but v103 does...which can be found on this thread somewhere........pipip Jimdandy
  • #10,563
  • Jan 20, 2008 11:54am Jan 20, 2008 11:54am
Quoting ira
Phillip's system works both on trending market and range. But, we have neither now , only consolidation. So, I'm doing a lot of backtesting, here is what I have written in my journal, maybe it will be helpful for someone.
Backtesting
Write the Market Rhythm, MA's, support/resistance, IT, TL, figures, candles and then wait for the MACD to pull the trigger. Write down everything: entry, SL, TP. Use F12 to move the candles. And then very carefully note the result, why the trade resulted in loss or why it was so successful, or why you didn't take the trade - to make summary in future.
Here are some points I noted from my backtesting (thanks to Donna for this):
1. When there is a divergence at the end of the trend, to take TC's is very dangerous, they are very fake.
2. Don't take marginal signals on MACD.
3. 21 and 8 should not be interlaces.
4. If you can't put the SL in proper place - miss the trade.
5. The body of the candle should close above/below the consolidation area.
6. Pay attention to the sup/res.
7. Be very careful when the price is in consolidation.
Please, note these are my personal observations from backtesting.

PS Oh, Palmer - the address please ))
Nice post, Ira! Thanks for the valuable info!
  • #10,564
  • Jan 20, 2008 12:16pm Jan 20, 2008 12:16pm
Quoting Palmer
I'm a pip away from closing one on the EU for 20. Barely moving on the Rt but I feel like being conservative here with the calendar and strength of the price with the 8ema lately.

Not sure if anyone else heard this this morning on CNBC 'The Spin Channel':

On Wednesday morning after the CPI is released, if the number is really bad (high) suggesting inflation the fed may step in and lower rates after the number is released. This is just what I heard, the truth....who knows. But, this could be an extremely volatile situation for price action along with a spread of about 20pips or so on the $ pairs.

Just thinking out loud here...pips4....whad'ya think???
I think my answer is very late...but I think the markets are very confused and that economic conditions are extremely ugly around the world. Fed will cut hard to help get money flowing into the economy again...that I think was the whole spin arguement...If inflation was higher than expected it would have completely strangulated the consumer...cut rates even though that would spur inflation b/c it would make credit easier for business (think hiring and capital expenditures) thus puting money back into the system. Also, give consumers some wiggle room. Personally, I have no idea how the markets are going to move anymore..the current situation is something I'm not really familiar with and it does scare the heck out of me. Remember all, trade defensively right now...we may see new long term trends in the making...also, remember, markets are very fearful and think about shorting any yen rallies.....

Happiness to all,
Pips
  • #10,565
  • Jan 20, 2008 12:18pm Jan 20, 2008 12:18pm
Hi everyone,

This is my first post, so it's only fair to introduce myself. My story's familiar: started trading forex, was too enthusiastic, lost some money, and took a step back to learn what I was actually doing. I've been studying Phillip's system for a couple weeks now, and am working my way through all the lessons listed in his first post. This week will be the first in which I am actively papertrading.

Phillip, let me say first off that I really appreciate the organisation you bring to this thread. I've read some other system threads and find them way too confusing. So what you've done here is truly remarkable, all the more so because you're doing it freely. Thanks for that.

Anyway, looking forward to trading and learning from everyone here, and sharing my own insights as I have them.

R
  • #10,566
  • Jan 20, 2008 1:57pm Jan 20, 2008 1:57pm
hi all
i have a problem to going to: Phillips Nel's 4 Hour Market Rhythm Strategy: http://www.fxtradeblog.com
my internet explorer(IE) doesnt open the site .it's not block or filter or something else , just canot open it with :"page cannot find" message.
i think i have a technical problem do u guys have any idea about?
  • #10,567
  • Jan 20, 2008 2:05pm Jan 20, 2008 2:05pm
Quoting bshadroo
hi all
i have a problem to going to: Phillips Nel's 4 Hour Market Rhythm Strategy: http://www.fxtradeblog.com
my internet explorer(IE) doesnt open the site .it's not block or filter or something else , just canot open it with :"page cannot find" message.
i think i have a technical problem do u guys have any idea about?
Try clearing your cache, all offline content, and history files. Or better yet, use netscape.
  • #10,568
  • Jan 20, 2008 2:07pm Jan 20, 2008 2:07pm
Be carefull and have patience.
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  • #10,569
  • Jan 20, 2008 2:24pm Jan 20, 2008 2:24pm
Quoting kc8flq
Try clearing your cache, all offline content, and history files. Or better yet, use netscape.
still doest work
  • #10,570
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:55am Jan 21, 2008 12:55am
comments on chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,571
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:56am Jan 21, 2008 12:56am
Quoting bshadroo
still doest work
i found the problem in my ISP
  • #10,572
  • Jan 21, 2008 3:14am Jan 21, 2008 3:14am
hi,all
Lool at EU daily chart. It has formed double tops right now, and on the way of breaking the neck line. The yellow ma is 89SMA, according to Philip's strategy, when price breaks 89sma, it tends to go back to test it. I think that at this case, 89SMA will go with the neck line, the price will go back to test it and go down this week. So, there maybe two chancees for us this week, one is TC to trade the retrace, the other is TC to short EU when it goes down.
http://www.sinaimg.cn/cj/pc/2008-01-...0121171405.gif
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #10,573
  • Jan 21, 2008 4:22am Jan 21, 2008 4:22am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Be carefull and have patience.
Great call on the euro Phil it sure dropped.

I took a long on the usd/chf + 22 pips and a short on the aud /usd + 26 pips.

that's the day for me.

good trading all.
  • #10,574
  • Jan 21, 2008 4:39am Jan 21, 2008 4:39am
speaking of chart patterns on the daily Saka!

there is a double top forming on the daily eur/usd. Neak line at 1.4315. a break of the neak line, next trend line down is my target.

i know this is off topic to the 4 hour system but i thought it was worth posting.
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  • #10,575
  • Jan 21, 2008 5:16am Jan 21, 2008 5:16am
I took short on U/J - that was a beauty, off the 8 MA, broke of triangle, with the rhythm. I set tight take profits +85 on this trade.
I also took E/U short. The reasons: with the trend, out of consolidation, went through 365 and tested it. Closed one lot +33 at 1.4500 level, the other is at b/e and running.
Attached Images
  • #10,576
  • Jan 21, 2008 5:18am Jan 21, 2008 5:18am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
speaking of chart patterns on the daily Saka!

there is a double top forming on the daily eur/usd. Neak line at 1.4315. a break of the neak line, next trend line down is my target.

i know this is off topic to the 4 hour system but i thought it was worth posting.
hi apo
becarefull of trendline #1, i think its verey very strong.
divergence in weekly macd and the macd red signal at the closing of the previous week are interesting
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,577
  • Jan 21, 2008 7:59am Jan 21, 2008 7:59am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
speaking of chart patterns on the daily Saka!

there is a double top forming on the daily eur/usd.
Not only EU, AUD/USD, NZD/USD also broke the main suport lines, something must happened
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #10,578
  • Jan 21, 2008 8:55am Jan 21, 2008 8:55am
didnt' i teel u for 2 months euro will never see 1.5
  • #10,579
  • Jan 21, 2008 10:00am Jan 21, 2008 10:00am
look at the h4 macd signal and the monthly inset.its just on the monthly trend?can we decide to buy on a monthly TL by H4 chart?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,580
  • Jan 21, 2008 11:55am Jan 21, 2008 11:55am
Quoting bshadroo
look at the h4 macd signal and the monthly inset.its just on the monthly trend?can we decide to buy on a monthly TL by H4 chart?
Hello bshadroo, these are my lines:
In my point of view, price could turn around and go bullish on 4hr, right on the TL, however, u have to wait till the end of the month for price to close giving more confirmation for monthly bullish. Consequently, yes, this is one of those chance that you can enter on the trade earlier before the monthly closes on bull.
Beware that 4hr chart is like a noise to monthly chart, just like MACD on 1HR chart making noises for 4HR. Therefore we need to wait for higher timeframe for confirmations. Hope that helps.

And my problem is, my broker doesn't provide Live Eur/Chf trade.
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