Diary of a Mad Surfer | Page 7 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Wave Surfer - Trading Journal 32 replies

TEB: Retracement Wave Surfer System 156 replies

please please help going mad 4 replies

Mad Money ... Mad Market? 3 replies

Attachments: Diary of a Mad Surfer
Exit Attachments

Diary of a Mad Surfer

  • #121
  • Jan 18, 2008 11:42am Jan 18, 2008 11:42am
Quoting MPP
hi Ash
i get the it's to close to the weekend, but i was just trying to see if i was thinking correcty to take a short looking at this setup of to stay out, thanks for the reply. as i see it, on a monday it's a good trade.
Thanks for understanding. I would rather be safe than sorry.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #122
  • Jan 18, 2008 11:46am Jan 18, 2008 11:46am
Quoting Ash
No, I closed that last week.
Why did you close it? I can't see 5 & 8 on daily chart crossed yet. Is there any fundamental issues that bothers you?
  • #123
  • Edited Jan 19, 2008 8:02am Jan 18, 2008 12:01pm | Edited Jan 19, 2008 8:02am
Quoting hijackxx
Why did you close it? I can't see 5 & 8 on daily chart crossed yet. Is there any fundamental issues that bothers you?
No, I just got nervous. I could've kept it and made an additional 250 pips but I got nervous. Can't trust cable. It'll flip on you move a few hundreds pips.

With BWR's method, I can see the charts much clearly and the false breakouts that might occur with the 5/8.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #124
  • Jan 19, 2008 3:48am Jan 19, 2008 3:48am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
chart
Hi, Ash told me about this thread yesterday and I started from the first page but am a bit stumped. I am not trying to be facetious but on this chart you would have entered at about 1.3505 and exited at about 1.4757 = 1252 pips in 5 months = 250 pips per month? I have made more than that this week. (Granted it was a very good week for me with 88 of those pips with the big drop yesterday) Am I missing something?
PS. I really am not trying to be funny or mocking, I think I am missing something?
  • #125
  • Jan 19, 2008 6:33am Jan 19, 2008 6:33am
I have spent some time now looking at this trading style using the EMA and personally not entirely happy with it. If it gives false signals like with the swissy and AUD 4 Jan and 7 Jan, in previous post, page 4 or 5, your losses can be big. BWR you showed a 100 pip loss I think it was on the swissy, sorry to lazy to go back and look.

I am still very new at this only 6 months but have done 4 different courses, I am a bit of a scholar. Each one with it merits and similar ideas and each one with something new. As in all things in life you listen to all and take what you like. Now looking at your style I observed something that I have been testing on a demo account for 2 days and looks good.

I am a scalper, for 2 reasons, 1. I am too scared to trade long term, when I see -50 pips I shit myself.
2. I got a lot of time on my hands and scalping keeps me busy.

This seems to work best on 30m and 1H TF.

I use 5ema and candlestick patterns for signals
And 100 & 200 EMA for guidance

Now my observation is that the price nearly always moves back to the 100 & 200 ema after a big move on the 30M TF. So I wait till the price has moved visually away from the 100 & 200 ema. Then look at the 5 ema and candlesticks for a price turn, place your trade and wait. Somewhere in the future it going to move back to the 100 & 200 ema. Sometimes it only makes it back the 100ema, so when it get there be ready to exit on 5ema signal.

It does sometimes happen that the 100 ema moves lower than your entry point before the price turns to the 100 ema, but that is what S/L are for.

I would really appreciate comments.
  • #126
  • Edited 8:52am Jan 19, 2008 8:01am | Edited 8:52am
Quoting Runway Trade
I have spent some time now looking at this trading style using the EMA and personally not entirely happy with it. If it gives false signals like with the swissy and AUD 4 Jan and 7 Jan, in previous post, page 4 or 5, your losses can be big. BWR you showed a 100 pip loss I think it was on the swissy, sorry to lazy to go back and look.

I am still very new at this only 6 months but have done 4 different courses, I am a bit of a scholar. Each one with it merits and similar ideas and each one with something new. As in all things in life you listen to all and take what you like. Now looking at your style I observed something that I have been testing on a demo account for 2 days and looks good.

I am a scalper, for 2 reasons, 1. I am too scared to trade long term, when I see -50 pips I shit myself.
2. I got a lot of time on my hands and scalping keeps me busy.

This seems to work best on 30m and 1H TF.

I use 5ema and candlestick patterns for signals
And 100 & 200 EMA for guidance

Now my observation is that the price nearly always moves back to the 100 & 200 ema after a big move on the 30M TF. So I wait till the price has moved visually away from the 100 & 200 ema. Then look at the 5 ema and candlesticks for a price turn, place your trade and wait. Somewhere in the future it going to move back to the 100 & 200 ema. Sometimes it only makes it back the 100ema, so when it get there be ready to exit on 5ema signal.

It does sometimes happen that the 100 ema moves lower than your entry point before the price turns to the 100 ema, but that is what S/L are for.

I would really appreciate comments.
Ok, this is BWR's thread, and he will comment but I would like to say this much, this thread is about trading on higher TF's, on a longer term basis. That is where the money is. This thread is not about scalping.

Scalping is dancing with the devil. You will get burned, sooner or later. Also, it is stressful.

FYI

My average has been over 3000 pips a month for the last three months. No stress, just a lot of free time on my hands. What BWR spoke about the EUR/USD in 5 months for 1252 pips. That was one position. When we trade on higher TF's, we have multiple positions in various currencies. So hopefully, no you can see how someone would make 3,4,5000 + pips a months.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #127
  • Jan 19, 2008 9:07am Jan 19, 2008 9:07am
Quoting Ash
Ok, this is BWR's thread, and he will comment but I would like to say this much, this thread is about trading on higher TF's, on a longer term basis. That is where the money is. This thread is not about scalping.

Scalping is dancing with the devil. You will get burned, sooner or later. Also, it is stressful.

FYI

My average has been over 3000 pips a month for the last three months. No stress, just a lot of free time on my hands. What BWR spoke about the EUR/USD in 5 months for 1252 pips. That was one position. When we trade on higher TF's, we have multiple positions in various currencies. So hopefully, no you can see how someone would make 3,4,5000 + pips a months.

To have multipal positions open on various currencies you need lots of money in your acount to back your trades. I as a newbie, I do not have big account so I can only open one or two positions at a time. If you took the turn on 8 Nov as a high, GU till yesterday, that is only 1267pips over app.40 trading days = 30pips per day. good but not great. I do thing in the long run high TF L/T trading is better, less stress full. But till you have the money in the account trading 1 or 2 positions L/T aint going to cut it, but I am learning, thanks
  • #128
  • Jan 19, 2008 9:32am Jan 19, 2008 9:32am
Quoting Runway Trade
To have multipal positions open on various currencies you need lots of money in your acount to back your trades. I as a newbie, I do not have big account so I can only open one or two positions at a time. If you took the turn on 8 Nov as a high, GU till yesterday, that is only 1267pips over app.40 trading days = 30pips per day. good but not great. I do thing in the long run high TF L/T trading is better, less stress full. But till you have the money in the account trading 1 or 2 positions L/T aint going to cut it, but I am learning, thanks
Hey, no problem. BWR's way (our way) is trading on higer TF's, less stress in our lives and minimizing losses. This is not for everyone, only for those that want to succeed in Forex.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #129
  • Jan 19, 2008 10:03am Jan 19, 2008 10:03am
this is a great thread

after i studied carefully this past few hours, and tried the EMAs on my charts on several pairs.. it looks very promising

i'll put the method on my system now, and see if i can make a progress next week

Happy Trading next week guys
"hope is people denial to reality".
  • #130
  • Jan 19, 2008 4:34pm Jan 19, 2008 4:34pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Runway Trade
To have multipal positions open on various currencies you need lots of money in your acount to back your trades. I as a newbie, I do not have big account so I can only open one or two positions at a time. If you took the turn on 8 Nov as a high, GU till yesterday, that is only 1267pips over app.40 trading days = 30pips per day. good but not great. I do thing in the long run high TF L/T trading is better, less stress full. But till you have the money in the account trading 1 or 2 positions L/T aint going to cut it, but I am learning, thanks
Hi Runway
even with a small amount of funds you can open multiple positions, once you have decided your risk level, say 1%, you calculate this into the funds and then decide which pair you want to trade.
now 1% = $100, if you trade the Eu with a 100pip sl this means you can open 1 position with a 100pip SL assuming your platform is working at $1 per pip.

so you place the trade, long term (BWR 13x100 cross for example), the trade moves 200pips in your favour and you move your SL to +1pip. this means there is no longer any risk to you account from this trade, therefore you can open another 1% risk trade.

Now trade 1 moves another 150pips, you move your sl and lock in 200pips profit on trade 1 and 50pips on trade 2.
250pips profit, so 1% risk was $100, 2 choices, you can calculate the 1% risk based on your new account size (locked in pips included) or you can use the entire amount of profit from your earlier trades to open new positions. thus giving 3.5 positions that can now be traded without any risk to your initial deposit.

basically compound your trade size without affect to your deposit until you reach a point that you are making a nice sum on each pip gained, then start taking out the profit.

hope this makes sense and helps you understand how it is posible to trade a number of positions.

MPP

PS open a demo account for BWR method and compound it, check the results in six months. You'll quit scalping.
  • #131
  • Jan 20, 2008 4:21am Jan 20, 2008 4:21am
Quoting MPP
Hi Runway
even with a small amount of funds you can open multiple positions, once you have decided your risk level, say 1%, you calculate this into the funds and then decide which pair you want to trade.
now 1% = $100, if you trade the Eu with a 100pip sl this means you can open 1 position with a 100pip SL assuming your platform is working at $1 per pip.

so you place the trade, long term (BWR 13x100 cross for example), the trade moves 200pips in your favour and you move your SL to +1pip. this means there is no longer any risk to you account from this trade, therefore you can open another 1% risk trade.

Now trade 1 moves another 150pips, you move your sl and lock in 200pips profit on trade 1 and 50pips on trade 2.
250pips profit, so 1% risk was $100, 2 choices, you can calculate the 1% risk based on your new account size (locked in pips included) or you can use the entire amount of profit from your earlier trades to open new positions. thus giving 3.5 positions that can now be traded without any risk to your initial deposit.

basically compound your trade size without affect to your deposit until you reach a point that you are making a nice sum on each pip gained, then start taking out the profit.

hope this makes sense and helps you understand how it is posible to trade a number of positions.

MPP

PS open a demo account for BWR method and compound it, check the results in six months. You'll quit scalping.
Gee that makes perfect sense! I should have worked that out long time ago. I now see how you can make more pips with the same directional move. If over the 2 months of a L/T trade there is a 1000 pips in that move you can add a lot every 100 pips profit and still keep your risk low. Thanks, as I say I learn every day.
PS I have already opened a demo to test the BWR way.
  • #132
  • Jan 20, 2008 5:02am Jan 20, 2008 5:02am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Runway Trade
Gee that makes perfect sense! I should have worked that out long time ago. I now see how you can make more pips with the same directional move. If over the 2 months of a L/T trade there is a 1000 pips in that move you can add a lot every 100 pips profit and still keep your risk low. Thanks, as I say I learn every day.
PS I have already opened a demo to test the BWR way.
2 things to clarify, if i might, each pair has a different SL, so make sure you don't over commit to the risk, and if all trades are closed out, you need to choose a new path, either start the %risk calculation again based on the new account balance or use the same previous number of trades, or a % of the previous number of trades say 50%.

what i'm trying to say is find a happy medium were by after each time you close out the trades build some capital and then start the compound system from there again. the risk is that you could find youself trading 20 lots one day and then all of a sudden be back to your opening account balance if you keep trading the number of lots.

it's like building a house, first you brick up the corners, then you fill in the middle, then you build up the corners, and so on.

clear as mud me thinks.

MPP
  • #133
  • Jan 20, 2008 6:15am Jan 20, 2008 6:15am
Quoting MPP
2 things to clarify, if i might, each pair has a different SL, so make sure you don't over commit to the risk, and if all trades are closed out, you need to choose a new path, either start the %risk calculation again based on the new account balance or use the same previous number of trades, or a % of the previous number of trades say 50%.

what i'm trying to say is find a happy medium were by after each time you close out the trades build some capital and then start the compound system from there again. the risk is that you could find youself trading 20 lots one day and then all of a sudden be back to your opening account balance if you keep trading the number of lots.

it's like building a house, first you brick up the corners, then you fill in the middle, then you build up the corners, and so on.

clear as mud me thinks.

MPP
Thanks, I think I got the drift of it
  • #134
  • Jan 20, 2008 7:38am Jan 20, 2008 7:38am
Hello everyone - am a newbie to this thread and would like to test BW's strat. Would appreciate some help from some of you who are already using this method.....

1. Which currency pair do u recommend to try it out on? and
2. Which of these is lined up and looks 'ready for plucking' this week using the method?
3. When fishing for good signals which TF is best to start looking at first?

Thanks people..
  • #135
  • Jan 20, 2008 7:40am Jan 20, 2008 7:40am
Quoting Ash
Ok, this is BWR's thread, and he will comment but I would like to say this much, this thread is about trading on higher TF's, on a longer term basis. That is where the money is. This thread is not about scalping.

Scalping is dancing with the devil. You will get burned, sooner or later. Also, it is stressful.

FYI

My average has been over 3000 pips a month for the last three months. No stress, just a lot of free time on my hands. What BWR spoke about the EUR/USD in 5 months for 1252 pips. That was one position. When we trade on higher TF's, we have multiple positions in various currencies. So hopefully, no you can see how someone would make 3,4,5000 + pips a months.

Please clarify: When people quote pips as above 3,4, 5000 pips per month; Is that individual pips per lot or total pips as in 500 pips X10 lots = 5000 pips? I am not sure how pips are quoted?
  • #136
  • Jan 20, 2008 8:07am Jan 20, 2008 8:07am
Quoting Runway Trade
Please clarify: When people quote pips as above 3,4, 5000 pips per month; Is that individual pips per lot or total pips as in 500 pips X10 lots = 5000 pips? I am not sure how pips are quoted?
I sent you a PM. Let's keep this thread concerned with BWR's diary. Thanks!
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #137
  • Jan 20, 2008 1:28pm Jan 20, 2008 1:28pm
Okay I will try to answer all the Q's in a single post.
It really does not matter if you use the 5ema or the 8ema if you are expecting to be in profit within 5 minutes as neither can do that and you shouldn't get into a trade the "moment" it crosses. I prefer the 8 because it makes better waves whereas the 5 is too choppy. But you can have either one you like.
I don't know how this system works on lower TF because I don't look at them, but if it works better for you to trade the 30min TF than so be it.
Yes this system does provide false signals when it is ranging and you should find more excuses to get into a trade not only because two ema's crossed.
This system works very well with "Old School Technical Analysis"
Trendlines....Chart patterns.....Fibo's........Wave counts..........
Sound familiar?

Who hasn't been shorting GJ on that massive weekly H&S? Thats not the only pair showing reversal patterns on higher TF's. The DOW Jones is in a H&S as well. As I said in an earlier post the markets are very volatile right now with strong movements and retracements so timing is important.
Alot of people are taking profit right now because of the worries of a possible recession in the U.S so markets are moving radically and trends are changing.

As far as the timing of a trade to put you instantly in profit I don't know how. Sometimes you get in a trade then watch it go into a 100 pip reversal. If it knocks you out then apply Jacko's Anti hedging.
Some times it seems your analysis was correct but not until your stop loss was hit. That sucks, but sometimes that happens. As the EMA Is a lagging indicator if you wait for the moment they cross sometimes the move is over and its now in a retracement. So sometimes it's better to enter a trade before they cross (like when it bounces off of a trendline or an ema) or a little bit after they cross which is better because you catch the next impulsive wave and you let the market show you where its going instead of trying to predict where it's going.

One of the best trading tactics I know of is adding to winners. It makes up for those losses when the markets where behaving badly.
Plus you turn a 2,000 pip move into a 6 or 10,000 pip move by adding to winners. It's easy adding to winners. Once your have profit locked in, then open another position on the next dip. or when it just starts taking off in your direction, If you wait too long and miss a move then wait for the next one, it's sure to come. The second best trading tactic I know of is "know when not to trade" Like in ranging markets. Wait for a good impulsive pattern to appear and break out of S&R. By waiting for a good setup you eliminate alot of bad trades. Which leads us to the two best skills for trading and that is DISCIPLINE and PATIENCE. Can't say enough of those two, and if you are lacking these two skills then you will not succeed. Go back to page 5 and read the mantra to help you attain these skills.
Just Trade It
  • #138
  • Jan 20, 2008 1:38pm Jan 20, 2008 1:38pm
Here is my take on EU (The easiest pair to trade)
On the monthly charts we have a possible reversal pattern (candlestick pattern) This monthly candle may turn into a bearish candle really soon. This may not be a total trend reversal. But a 2 or 3,000 pip retracement may be in the cards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 21 KB
Just Trade It
  • #139
  • Jan 20, 2008 1:47pm Jan 20, 2008 1:47pm
Here is the daily and we have a signal to go short (against the trend???)
I know I dont like it either. But sometimes you have to take risk. Watch for a possible bounce at the 100 which could send it back into the uptrend, If it breaks below the 100 then on to the 200. Below that then we look for the weekly and monthly 100 & 200 ema's.

EU DAILY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 20 KB
Just Trade It
  • #140
  • Jan 20, 2008 1:54pm Jan 20, 2008 1:54pm
Here is 4HR EU. Right now it is in a flag or in a "corrective wave"
wait for a break below the support line. The 100 is acting as resistance and a candle has closed under the 200ema. So I would be looking to go short here.
This is not a trade recommendation, this is an observation as you are responsible for your own trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 22 KB
Just Trade It
0 traders viewing now