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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,301
  • Jan 19, 2008 4:33pm Jan 19, 2008 4:33pm
The 0.0 support on the first fib (blue) becomes 100.0. resistance on the following fib (brown)? Lots of whipsaws on both trades though if you take the break of the 0.0 and 100.0.
I guess you just need to find the best place to enter!
Attached Image
  • #2,302
  • Jan 20, 2008 1:40am Jan 20, 2008 1:40am
i'm getting more and more confused as i' m see people trying to fit the history into the pattern(or different patterns) to testify skunny's model,but no clue on future price movement.IF the market movement is predicatable as skunny said,we can tell it before it happen,right? my question is how is the history data hint on future price movement and what's the clue for GY?
Quoting seb123
Hi 24,

I've just taken a look at your chart and come up with this view. Take a look at my charts below. The weekly chart shows 2 fibs, the profit targets for both are hit and the low is pip perfect at the 138 ext of the blue fib.
The Blue fib 138 ext is the low of the last week bar and the 138 ext of the yellow fib is the hi of the last week bar. Its interesting to note that both fibs are weeks old when the targets are hit.
The 2nd chart shows the daily time frames with the weekly fibs and show how both weekly targets targets were hit. The green fib shows a daily range with the TP level again hit but with the price just going beyond to complete the long standing weekly fib target.

I think there is a lot more here, but I got to go. Hope this helps to clear things a little.
  • #2,303
  • Jan 20, 2008 2:29am Jan 20, 2008 2:29am
Quoting moneybookers
...................... my question is how is the history data hint on future price movement and what's the clue for GY?
Hi money - I'm not positive what question you are asking....... if you are asking what clues tell us the future movement of the fib analysis, here are 2 clues. One clue is the longer term fibs are showing a non-completed cycle in a certain direction. For example, we have fibs drawn on daily and we are trading H1. If the daily fibs have consolidated above the 61.8 internal fib and headed higher to a daily 138.2 target, that is a clue price action should be moving higher on the H1 fibs you have drawn.

Also on your H1 fibs if price has penetrated the 100 line prior to consolidation that is a clue price will probably move higher. Hope this helps.
  • #2,304
  • Jan 20, 2008 3:29am Jan 20, 2008 3:29am
24HourTrader & seb123... nice analysis IMO. This is sorta the same way that I was looking at the charts. Obviously everyone is drawing their fibs differently, which brings me to something I'd like to point out.

When I asked Skunny if fibs had to be drawn from top to bottom or from bottom to top, he said either. So a breach of a sell line and a signal to go short can be from a fib that was drawn either way. Of course this only leads us back to how do we walk the fibs, so that everyone is drawing them the same way?

If you go back to Sizzle's daily GJ chart http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1679
you'll see he was short bias based off fibs that were drawn from bottom to top, where seb123, has his fibs drawn from top to bottom. Not saying either person is right or wrong. Just wanted to point this out. Obviously after the fact it is easy to see that either method would of worked out, though as we know already this isn't always the case.

Here is seb123's chart re-posted with fibs drawn the opposite way to help show more precisely what I am trying to point out.

Jon
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The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #2,305
  • Jan 20, 2008 3:35am Jan 20, 2008 3:35am
@ bronxterp
Luke PipWalker is now Luke FibWalker

Jon
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #2,306
  • Jan 20, 2008 3:42am Jan 20, 2008 3:42am
any one else been running Vhands non-stop all weekend. I love this program. It's 4:42 AM here - I must either be nuts or love what I do. Thanks a bunch Bo & Skunny for pointing us to this wonderful program and to blueruby for the great explanation thread.
  • #2,307
  • Jan 20, 2008 3:48am Jan 20, 2008 3:48am
me too! Two weeks almost non stop
My finger hurts from fast forwarding (pressing the F12 key). I finally found an object to place on my keyboard's F12 key. Makes it a lot easier. Been having more and more trading dreams using fibs! In my dream I traded perfectly last night. Can't remember what i did though...LOL.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #2,308
  • Jan 20, 2008 3:54am Jan 20, 2008 3:54am
Quoting GridTrader
me too! Two weeks almost non stop
My finger hurts from fast forwarding (pressing the F12 key). I finally found an object to place on my keyboard's F12 key. Makes it a lot easier. Been having more and more trading dreams using fibs! In my dream I traded perfectly last night. Can't remember what i did though...LOL.
you do know there is a play and pause button in strategy tester that automatically advances at the speed you want without you having to hold down the F12 key?
  • #2,309
  • Jan 20, 2008 4:26am Jan 20, 2008 4:26am
Quoting 24HourTrader
Here's my take on this action. First look at the purple fib and how the 0% was breached but didnt reach target due to (we think) that long term 138%. Then it turned around and broke the 100% and the 138% target was hit long with a great bounce.

On lowell's chart the blue fib that predicted the double top at it's 138%(shown on my chart in aqua) seems like one you would draw only if you have already seen how it plays out. If we are drawing these in real time, why wouldn't we have chosen the high at 210.64, my purple fib 138%, as our high? Not only was it our first big retrace point but also a 138% level that got reacted to near perfectly. I'm still unsure how to fib all the action Skunny style before we got those double tops. I'll keep trying to figure this out over the weekend. Lets keep up the good work everyone!
Hi 24,
I'm having another stab at this because I think its important to nail things that seem not to work as we expect. I'm finding i'm learning a lot by doing it too.
In my chart I have posted 4 H1 ranges which could ALL have been drawn in real time, not after the event!
This is how I see it.....
The down move is coming to an end with the weekly and daily targets in sight, the purple fib is drawn and the 0 level broken. I would not take this as a signal because the TP is beyond the weekly and daily fib TP's. This isn't a failed signal in my opinion. The low point is the end of 2 long term cycles and price is expected to rise , which it does.
The purple fib is broken at the 100 level and seems a valid trade as there are no Higher TF targets in the way. The purple fib hits its target. The price falls back only to rise again, we have a new upward range and this is shown by the yellow fib. The yellow 0 level is broken, this again appears to be a valid trade as there are no higher TF targets in the way of the yellow profit target.
Price falls again and creates a hi where we can pull 2 further fibs, the short blue and the longer green. These can both be drawn in real time. There are no higher TF targets in the way of these H1 targets so seem to me to be valid trades. They will both trigger at the same 0 level (acording to my chart). The yellow, blue and green targets are all hit and after the hi, the price then retraces to.......? I'll leave it there! (haven't worked the rest out yet)
The one thing that bothers me here is that my green fib target is not hit exactly, my chart shows about 6/7 pips short. Is this bad/variant data? Or have I made an error somewhere?
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  • #2,310
  • Jan 20, 2008 4:26am Jan 20, 2008 4:26am
Thanks for the helps.Are you trading more profitable with Vhand?for UJ,seems the result is not so good for me on daily.

Quoting PiPr Pro
Hi money - I'm not positive what question you are asking....... if you are asking what clues tell us the future movement of the fib analysis, here are 2 clues. One clue is the longer term fibs are showing a non-completed cycle in a certain direction. For example, we have fibs drawn on daily and we are trading H1. If the daily fibs have consolidated above the 61.8 internal fib and headed higher to a daily 138.2 target, that is a clue price action should be moving higher on the H1 fibs you have drawn.

Also on your H1 fibs if price has penetrated the 100 line prior to consolidation that is a clue price will probably move higher. Hope this helps.
  • #2,311
  • Jan 20, 2008 4:36am Jan 20, 2008 4:36am
Quoting PiPr Pro
any one else been running Vhands non-stop all weekend. I love this program. It's 4:42 AM here - I must either be nuts or love what I do. Thanks a bunch Bo & Skunny for pointing us to this wonderful program and to blueruby for the great explanation thread.
Same here. Thank you guys so much! I have learned so much in the past 32 hours.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,312
  • Jan 20, 2008 4:39am Jan 20, 2008 4:39am
Quoting moneybookers
Thanks for the helps.Are you trading more profitable with Vhand?for UJ,seems the result is not so good for me on daily.
I trade GJ only because I have been for awhile. Skunny prefers you do not start with GJ.
  • #2,313
  • Edited 6:00am Jan 20, 2008 5:07am | Edited 6:00am
Quoting PiPr Pro
you do know there is a play and pause button in strategy tester that automatically advances at the speed you want without you having to hold down the F12 key?
No I didn't (Duh, thanks). Right there in front of my eyes!! For anyone wanting to plot last weeks high and low to easily draw your weekly fibs on vhands 1hr chart, I have a tool that will do that. With Skunny's permission I can post that here.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #2,314
  • Jan 20, 2008 5:33am Jan 20, 2008 5:33am
Hope you guys had a great weekend. And at least a bit sleep. vHands is addictive, isn't it?

For what it's worth... here my EJ and UJ chart for the week to come as I have them now. Skunny never trades on Mondays though... cya tuesday mate!

The cornflower fib is the high/low of last week and the blue fib the one I will trade and walk through the week now.

My GJ chart isn't publishable as the current swing has not finished yet. Just hit the 138 target and stalling there now.

Wish you all a great week to come..
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,315
  • Jan 20, 2008 6:14am Jan 20, 2008 6:14am
Quoting DXTrade
Hope you guys had a great weekend. And at least a bit sleep. vHands is addictive, isn't it?

For what it's worth... here my EJ and UJ chart for the week to come as I have them now. Skunny never trades on Mondays though... cya tuesday mate!

The cornflower fib is the high/low of last week and the blue fib the one I will trade and walk through the week now.

My GJ chart isn't publishable as the current swing has not finished yet. Just hit the 138 target and stalling there now.

Wish you all a great week to come..
Hi DXtrade,

Thnx for the charts, this is all very addictive isn't it?
Regarding your charts.....

I may be wrong here but my view is that the weekly and daily cycles have been completed, we have no weekly or daily direction for the hourly TF to follow. The hourly time frame seems to be a bit of a loose cannon at the moment with nowhere to go, especially the GJ. I think that we need to wait until we get some direction from the higher TF's before trading the H1. Am I being overly cautious here or missing something?
I know we can pull fibs on the H1 tf, but what probability of success do we have without a higher direction?
  • #2,316
  • Jan 20, 2008 7:01am Jan 20, 2008 7:01am
Quoting SBrickman
Some of us can code(hunt) but can't trade(fish).

Some of us can trade but can't code.

A few of us can do both. Some can't do either.

IMHO, people aren't here to learn to code, they are here to learn to trade.

If the coders help the traders, we'll move along faster.

But when ONE person doesn't share, it make some of us(ME) reluctant to share.

You are been asked by a few people to share something that's probably simple. I believe most are here to trade and not code. Coding can be very frustrating even to experienced programmers. We are not asking you to give us a fish, we are asking for a piece of meat.

I have created a bunch of indicators I will be happy to share when you post the buyers/sellers code.

The ball is in your court.
SBrickman here is the information on how to calculate the buyers and sellers in MT4

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=66078

If there is anything else you would like to know do let me know.
  • #2,317
  • Jan 20, 2008 7:04am Jan 20, 2008 7:04am
I trade 5 currency pairs (follow a few more, but don't really trade em) and I run Vhands for each one each weekend on the past 3 weeks of trading on the 1 hour chart. Its really helped me stay in touch with the market flow and obviously I'm learning from it as well.

This is going to sound REALLY weird, but sometimes when I use Vhands, I do not touch the chart...meaning no fibs, no S/R lines, no thinking, nothing. I just try and create a tunnel vision between my eyes and the chart. I set the speed to 25 and just watch it go. Thats all I do is watch and try to almost hypnotize myself with the chart. Its pretty much a form of meditation for me, but I think it also helps make the PA stuff 2nd nature to me. I find myself playing out different market situations in my head throughout the day when I'm not even looking at charts. Its A LOT better than the voices that I would hear in my head! LOL
  • #2,318
  • Jan 20, 2008 8:29am Jan 20, 2008 8:29am
Quoting seb123
The one thing that bothers me here is that my green fib target is not hit exactly, my chart shows about 6/7 pips short. Is this bad/variant data? Or have I made an error somewhere?
Hi seb123. Your walking chart are very good one. I think your green fib target is not hit coz its target are higher then previous yellow uncompleted target and top part of green fib is only penetration of yellow uncompleted yet cycle. Blue fib target are within yellow and they completed perfectly later.
IMHO
  • #2,319
  • Jan 20, 2008 9:04am Jan 20, 2008 9:04am
Quoting seb123
Hi 24,
I'm having another stab at this because I think its important to nail things that seem not to work as we expect. I'm finding i'm learning a lot by doing it too.
In my chart I have posted 4 H1 ranges which could ALL have been drawn in real time, not after the event!
This is how I see it.....
The down move is coming to an end with the weekly and daily targets in sight, the purple fib is drawn and the 0 level broken. I would not take this as a signal because the TP is beyond the weekly and daily fib TP's. This isn't a failed signal in my opinion. The low point is the end of 2 long term cycles and price is expected to rise , which it does.
The purple fib is broken at the 100 level and seems a valid trade as there are no Higher TF targets in the way. The purple fib hits its target. The price falls back only to rise again, we have a new upward range and this is shown by the yellow fib. The yellow 0 level is broken, this again appears to be a valid trade as there are no higher TF targets in the way of the yellow profit target.
Price falls again and creates a hi where we can pull 2 further fibs, the short blue and the longer green. These can both be drawn in real time. There are no higher TF targets in the way of these H1 targets so seem to me to be valid trades. They will both trigger at the same 0 level (acording to my chart). The yellow, blue and green targets are all hit and after the hi, the price then retraces to.......? I'll leave it there! (haven't worked the rest out yet)
The one thing that bothers me here is that my green fib target is not hit exactly, my chart shows about 6/7 pips short. Is this bad/variant data? Or have I made an error somewhere?
Your green target has not really been hit yet in my opinion, but the move is not over, it's just a very deep retracement, of which I love to wait for and trade myself in the direction of the target (more pips please).
I have seen it go all the way back and hit a 138 retracement before going right back up to the 138 extension like your green fib. Hope this helps. It may be that the green target might not get hit at all because it has fullfilled several swing targets already, but IMHO, the big move down is probably going to retrace back to the major support level it broke and support will become resistance so your target should get hit, and even bigger swing extensions as well. This is of course, purely conjecture but a major support usually does get revisited once broken. (I am speaking of the 219.00 level)

Just my 2.... and most times they aren't even worth that much LOL

Daniel
  • #2,320
  • Jan 20, 2008 9:10am Jan 20, 2008 9:10am
Quoting PiPr Pro
I trade GJ only because I have been for awhile. Skunny prefers you do not start with GJ.

hi pipr Skunny said u have this tuff figured so i thought i's ask u.... (of course bo or skunny can answer me too or anyone that is sure)....my studies suggest that this is the proper place to put my weekly/monthly fib (in orange)....can u confirm i have my weekly (orange) fib on gj correct? if not please tell me why... as always much appreciated and thank you in advance

d
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