Eklavya - USDCAD

I am starting this weekly thread so I can post my weekly analysis of USDCAD. I am going to use my analysis for making up my bias for the following week. Please feel free to comment on my analysis. I guess using a different perspective will only be better.

The pair is inching upwards after a long downtrend. It took a temporary retracement for two weeks and is again inching upwards. There is a short term resistance upwards that I believe will be broken this week.

As expected, the pair close above the resistance. However, it seems to very tentative looking at the Friday candle and might fall down. Looking for some confirmation this week. If this is a up week, which i think it will be, the pair should reach up to the 50 Fib level above.

The pair fell down strongly this week. This was mostly due to the extremely volatile world markets. In addition per the COT report there seems to be a sense of indecision between the commercials and the speculators with the speculator postions reducing their net long over the past few months.
Right now I would stay out of this pair till it provides a sense of direction.