Eklavya - GBPUSD

I am starting this weekly thread so I can post my weekly analysis of GBPJPY. I am going to use my analysis for making up my bias for the following week. Please feel free to comment on my analysis. I guess using a different perspective will only be better.

Price has broken through the long term support line and is poised to go down. Now this could turn out to be a false breakout in which the case the price should make its northward journey. Personally I think if that happens, we may be looking at a H and S formation with the price going down in the long term.

As expected, we did have a down week. The past week has a long upper shadow indicating that higher prices are being rejected. On the daily chart it is clear that the price does not want to go up. However the price is at a support level and it does not seem to want to go lower. I think we are going to see that support broken this week and a down week. GBPJPY is also expected to be down this week. Thus GBP by itself is going to have a downward pressure and that should pull this pair down this week.
Recent times have been very volatile. So I am going to avoid this pair unless this close below 1.9561. After that I will look to go short at an appropriate time.

There is still no clear sense of direction for GBPUSD. This wee it strongly rebounded and has closed above the support level. It will be interesting to see what this does this week. On the COT positions, there is extremely low levels of open interest in this pair. What is interesting is that both the comercials and speculators are net long and small traders are net short. This being the case, I would tentatively be bullish on this pair for now.