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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #8,801
  • Jan 17, 2008 5:58pm Jan 17, 2008 5:58pm
Quoting SeekingLight

The evil 15m!

Well done Swami!
But don't get addicted to the lure of the quick smash-and-grab 15

She is a treacherous mistress to keep..
LOL. Speaking of...

Already in on EurJpy Short, but...

Using this oppurtunity to add to my position.

Not a perect pin bar position , as far as the action around it goes, but a strong statement amongst this familiar setup.

Even better when you are waiting for this exact setup to happen waaay before.


Seek, dude, notice the FE 100 target on EurJpy??

First stumbling block may be where it's sitting as I type. %61.8 of last Up move.
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #8,802
  • Jan 17, 2008 6:34pm Jan 17, 2008 6:34pm
Was in a hurry, but to add to that last post...

Pin off of first %38.2
System trade.
Off range support.
Pair currently in strong downtrend.
Targetting 155.40 area for a bit of profit taking.

Currently, from how we look now, (bouncing off the deeper Fib lines of the short up wave) , I've come to know this pattern as a reversal pattern. Will ONLY be confirmed by the top (or pin in this case) being broken. Could be the beginning of a larger retracement.

This isn't the case UNTIL it happens. So I'm sticking with my trade for now. Nothing worse than second guessing yourself out of a good profit!!

The stop on my add-to is behind the pin. Small position little risk. If there is an even better setup AFTER the failure I'll get in again. We never did make it to the BETTER %38.2 retrace (as opposed to the little one included in the first post) Guys on the trading desks seem to hate it when that happens! They'll often make sure it does!! LOL
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #8,803
  • Jan 18, 2008 12:17am Jan 18, 2008 12:17am
Quoting bundyraider
LOL. Speaking of...

Already in on EurJpy Short, but...

Using this oppurtunity to add to my position.

Not a perect pin bar position , as far as the action around it goes, but a strong statement amongst this familiar setup.
Did you just say erect!?!?

"Dude, that pair was so hot...gave me this raging erect pin bar" ;p
My, this thread is deteriorating fast! ;P


Quote
Even better when you are waiting for this exact setup to happen waaay before.
That's how I felt for 6 months in 2007
(not a good thing, I got disappointed like a dozen times for months before what _I_ wanted happened...GJ and UJ was sooooo much nicer and cleaner...meanie beanie EJ)

Quote
Seek, dude, notice the FE 100 target on EurJpy??

First stumbling block may be where it's sitting as I type. %61.8 of last Up move.
Yea, if 155.55ish(plus minus unsteady FE hand hehehe) is your .618, then we have the same projection ;P

Noticed the target quite early and it was what made me constantly a rabid short through October/November

Dito GJ of course, but that's already smashed it's FE 100!
Which is kinda bad, coz I'm running out of alternatives(got maybe 205 area, 200, 190..but those might take a while and not go there in a straight nose dive the next 20 minutes, doesn't that suck? I think it does..)

Btw - stay off that 15m...1h just gave a much nicer one higher ;p

Sort of a good morning present to me, it was there 5 minutes after I got to the PC
Bit skeptical about it though, everything's a bit thrashy...can you believe Asia BOUGHT the carry/indices(futures)? Crazy..time for London to get to it I guess..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #8,804
  • Jan 18, 2008 6:12am Jan 18, 2008 6:12am
Quoting SeekingLight

Btw - stay off that 15m...1h just gave a much nicer one higher ;p
I LOVE the 15m though!

Don't worry! ...I trade from the top down.

I judge candidates for trades from the higher time frames. Looking at possible targets , known reaction areas and price bar setups etc. I've gotten to know the patterns on the smaller time frames quite well. Fine tuning entries and stops. Love it!

This trade didn't work out. By having the 15min in front of me though, I DID see the possible reversal pattern just after the add. (When it failed to get past the deep fib ret points)
...Alerted me enough to look for a wind down on my main trade. 303 points in the end. Yum! (minus the failures of course!) Missed the bottom by around 150 pips. But who cares!!!
This combined with a mutha load in GBPJPY trades has give me my best ever pip haul in 1 week. It's just happened to work out that way.

The reversal pattern (i've been calling them "rising W bottoms".LOL) at time of writing was a good trade if I had of taken it. Good for more than a hundred pips from the break point. Have seen this particular one a lot on Cable. Wasn't sure how this pair would react.

This pair has further to go down. In my opinion. Maybe after a retracement week?? We'll see. Enough for this week though. I'm sleeping in tomorrow! In fact, should be in bed now!!
.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #8,805
  • Jan 18, 2008 6:30am Jan 18, 2008 6:30am
Results of G/U 4 hour pinbar. Cha-ching!
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  • #8,806
  • Jan 18, 2008 6:35am Jan 18, 2008 6:35am
We also have 4 hour pin bar/gravestone doji on U/J. I will probably take this break, hopefully Bush's speech today doesn't make the stock market and u/j all wacky.
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  • #8,807
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:04am Jan 18, 2008 7:04am
hi, i have read through till 397 pages~

Saw this on AUD/USD monthly.
Is this a good pb?

i put my stoploss at the "nose"
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  • #8,808
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:08am Jan 18, 2008 7:08am
sorry *enlarge*
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  • #8,809
  • Jan 18, 2008 9:43am Jan 18, 2008 9:43am
raczek did you stopped out on GY or still in that trade?

i am -300 pips
  • #8,810
  • Jan 18, 2008 11:43am Jan 18, 2008 11:43am
Results of U/J pin.....cha-ching! I closed out after 1:1 R:R target was hit because I don't want to hold this over the weekend (I really hate the negative swap). Lets see if this is a break out of triangle or a bounce. If it's a break down I'm selling again on retrace.
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  • #8,811
  • Jan 18, 2008 12:56pm Jan 18, 2008 12:56pm
Quoting honeyclover
sorry *enlarge*
Yup this is a pinbar although the nose is quite small on your feed. However the location of pin is not so great. We had a counter PB the month before and as you can see the pin is in traffic. If you combine the forth and third last bars however you can get a pretty nice 2 months PB that looks quite nice.

Chris
  • #8,812
  • Jan 18, 2008 2:14pm Jan 18, 2008 2:14pm
Bearish overbar on EU/USD weekly. Couldn't break 1.4967, are we going back to 1.43?
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  • #8,813
  • Jan 18, 2008 3:53pm Jan 18, 2008 3:53pm
Quoting giraia_br
raczek did you stopped out on GY or still in that trade?

i am -300 pips
That pair can bite you hard.

What's more important, though, is what does 300 pips mean to your account?

It's exactly the same as any other pair. If you set your trade so that -300 pips is %1 of your account, then it becomes "just another trade" . Some don't work out.

I feel for you though.
I undid about two weeks hard work once by making a sizing mistake on GBP/JPY! Rushed in head first to catch the move.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #8,814
  • Jan 18, 2008 6:12pm Jan 18, 2008 6:12pm
Quoting giraia_br
raczek did you stopped out on GY or still in that trade?

i am -300 pips
I gave away 213.. if that helps..
  • #8,815
  • Jan 18, 2008 10:49pm Jan 18, 2008 10:49pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Just couldn't resist posting a followup on my dream charts.

I just love taking stabs at "guessing" markets ahead of time and trying to "see" the picture before it's drawn on the chart. I think only if you can imagine it, then you can trade it well
Not true of course and utter bollocks, but I need to have SOME fantasies left in my adult life!

Also as wiz said, it's nice to see followups on old stuff.

These charts are from:

August 2007 (this is actually the last / 3rd chart visible for some reason)
dji_futures_160807_dreaming_update.gif (that bounce I was pondering was sliiiiightly higher! lol )

November 2007(first chart visible)
dji_futures_271107_update_creative.gif (this was quite a good drawing, wasn't it)

Today(middle / 2nd chart)
dji_futures_080117_followup_to_dji_futures_271107_creative.gif (a replica of my crystal ball is for sale on ebay, starting bid is $100k )
I put the red vertical bar in where the last chart's drawing started


NostraSeekus strikes again! (well, at least from the November to today chart, the first one had the right idea - bounce and re-sell - but KIND OF underestimated the bounce lol)

Not sure about the bounce I drew in in November anymore though

Again - there is only so much the market can do...I was just making an educated pattern prediction guess..

Can anyone see why I am not touching any bullish carry trade setup with a 100 foot pole?

I also just realized what this type of thing means to most investors..it's frickin' huge moves on the chart..the dimensions are wowza..no wonder a lot of systems got thrown.



Now where's the competition's crystal ball producer's representative....raczekfx! Show your wares! I know you had some, too!
A lot of confluence in blue box, waiting for PA
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  • #8,816
  • Jan 18, 2008 11:05pm Jan 18, 2008 11:05pm
After looking at chart I found 2 interesting set up to trade next week.

GBP-CAD:
PB on weekly TF, confluence trend line and FB.
But there is support around 1.9736 on february 2006 low.
So I don't know if that worth to trade or not.

USD-CHF
In Daily chart we can see PB and BUOB.
But on 17 Jan, there is PB bounce a line on April 2005.
So it is safer to take entry above this line, beside there is PB on weekly
chart.
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  • #8,817
  • Jan 19, 2008 12:35am Jan 19, 2008 12:35am
Quoting honeyclover
hi, i have read through till 397 pages~

Saw this on AUD/USD monthly.
Is this a good pb?

i put my stoploss at the "nose"

i will add my perspective to that..
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  • #8,818
  • Jan 19, 2008 3:57am Jan 19, 2008 3:57am
phew thanks, guess i'll have to read more in e pf.
  • #8,819
  • Edited 1:42am Jan 21, 2008 1:24am | Edited 1:42am
Just a reminder as to why there is NOTHING WRONG WITH HIGH TIMEFRAMES.

I know wizard loves the 1h and Swami just hinted at 15m and Bundy chimed in, BUT, especially if you are beginning, you want to give yourself the time to actually lose errrr build your account SLOWLY(but seriously, it IS about delaying losing real live money until you know what you are doing) until you really understand what you're looking for.

CADJPY was just such a terrific example of

-hold on to your winners
-don't mix timeframes(daily PBs that had no meaning galore)
-don't trade against the weekly PB
-good risk/reward
-pin bar was after a "smooth" BUB, not in sideway traffic, eyes level, open/close at the low

that I just have to post and emphasize this, BIG.

250 stop, over 1100 pips moved already -> well over 1:4 risk/reward.

This is the trade we're all looking for.
I think it helps to to not only have the setup in your head, but the potential(target), too, eventually.

Sell 115 while thinking about 100. Why not?

And to repeat myself over and again - find that ONE trade a week that could do this and even at 1% you can get 4%.

If each week you only take one trade and that one were to be one like this and you managed to make just 2% on average per week(some may lose, some might not go up to 1:4 risk/reward, etc) - you will double your account in a year.

Just some sobering compounding figures on controlled shots vs overtrading.

Why compromise on "could or could not be a semi-decent pin, sorta", forcefully looking for setups every day, is what I'm saying if this kind of stuff also exists

Don't force it, find it
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #8,820
  • Jan 21, 2008 2:45am Jan 21, 2008 2:45am
hi all,

how about this beovb ?

http://i222.photobucket.com/albums/d...p_weekly-1.gif
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