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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,541
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:26am Jan 18, 2008 8:26am
Additional info for weekly bull:
price being held by 89 MA which is bearish resistance, zoom in and price is also being held @4HR support channel.
my 2 cents. These are only my thoughts.
  • #10,542
  • Edited 8:50am Jan 18, 2008 8:30am | Edited 8:50am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
11024.5 is my entry yeh my stop is at BE but I am still up watching it, i think there is a report coming out in the us soon.

have entered? there was a heap of buying off the 21 ema
1.1020 is strong resistance now.hope ur be stoploss will not hitt.i want to sell around ur entry if us news comming bad.my h4 closing about 30minutes

pipsi cola: thx for answer
  • #10,543
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:34am Jan 18, 2008 8:34am
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 18 Jan2008.zip   800 KB | 825 downloads
  • #10,544
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:52am Jan 18, 2008 8:52am
Quoting bshadroo
1.1020 is strong resistance now.hope ur be stoploss will not hitt.i want to sell around ur entry if us news comming bad.my h4 closing about 30minutes
I closed it down at plus 4, I think a lot of chaps could be betting pro usd on the news hence the sudden thrust!

that's it for the week....
  • #10,545
  • Jan 18, 2008 9:06am Jan 18, 2008 9:06am
Uncertainty is right on. I was right, but then I was wrong....Encouraging thing you can make money either was, just way too risky for me..... I agree, stick to the TC's and clear signals.... KISS (Keep it simple stupid)....

Have a great weekend all.

Eric

Quoting Bag Lady
I'm still looking at that long on the U/J as a CT to the 89. I'm sitting on my hands because it's a CT and I vowed to stick to TC's only, but it is sooo tempting! I shall wait & see what happens, maybe take a TC down from the 89 if it does get there. There's a resistance point here & at 107.90-ish. I shall be patient, I shall be patient...

Looking at it again, EricThePip is right, it is weak around the 21 and there is still loads of uncertainty. I shall stay away; CT = career trashing, CT = career trashing...
  • #10,546
  • Jan 18, 2008 9:07am Jan 18, 2008 9:07am
Long CAD at 1.0260

- SL 1.0211
- TP 1.0299 (will take 100% profit due to slow trend market)
- Will half SL risk when price reaches 1.0277
- Will give trade time to play out

Early entry on 1H showing good support with tail at 4H 21EMA.
  • #10,547
  • Jan 18, 2008 9:14am Jan 18, 2008 9:14am
When you put more emphasis on the Tc trades you start to recognize or understand the significance of price action around the 21. At least that's what I see, or have picked up on. I rarely trade the Rt's or Rb's any more. This leads to being able to see more on the 1hr and then picking up price action on that time frame also. In my opinion, the 21 is the most important moving average with the Market Rhythm 4 Hour Strategy....short the EU from 4679...

4hr came close to the 21 for a Tc.
1hr was hitting resistance with the 365 and nearby pivot, stalled there at previous resistance on the 1hr price highs...

Back down to the 4650 area that has been a major sticking point for this pair lately. Dumped two for about 60 pips, still holding one at b/e. Friday trade so this is it for the day..
Attached Image
  • #10,548
  • Jan 18, 2008 9:53am Jan 18, 2008 9:53am
Thank you Philip for your wise words in the daily wrap up, and thanks to all on the thread for your wisdom and for sharing your knowledge.

Happy Weekend to you all. I hope you get some time to spend on the car Palmer, saw your website - it's a beauty!

Rebecca,x.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #10,549
  • Jan 18, 2008 10:10am Jan 18, 2008 10:10am
Thanks Bag Lady...The Z has a ways to go, paint, rear suspension and brake upgrades, not to mention trying to track down a 83' ZX Turbo engine to put in there...That site needs an upgrade also big time....

Covered the short at 4624...Done for the day. I know I said "Sitting this pair out until we leave this box" but, pertaining to the 1hr...When you see the 4hr and know how to read the 1hr, there are more opportunities. But, they are aggressive trades.
  • #10,550
  • Jan 18, 2008 10:30am Jan 18, 2008 10:30am
Quoting Palmer
Thanks Bag Lady...The Z has a ways to go, paint, rear suspension and brake upgrades, not to mention trying to track down a 83' ZX Turbo engine to put in there...That site needs an upgrade also big time....

Covered the short at 4624...Done for the day. I know I said "Sitting this pair out until we leave this box" but, pertaining to the 1hr...When you see the 4hr and know how to read the 1hr, there are more opportunities. But, they are aggressive trades.

Agreed I have set aside on 4 agressive trades in the last few days and all would have been good. All were 1Hr trades based on the 4H signals.

Todays would have been similiar to yours, short at 4653 with target 4606. I saw the possible 4H TC forming and the 1H finding resistance at 365 in 1H also psych point 4700 also 21 on 4H. The 4H macd was looking to go red and give the TC and the 1H showed a red on the close of the hour.

I would have not even tried to close half trade and let the rest run because the target was right next to a trend line the psych level 4600 and of course the 200 and finally its Friday afternoon and I wouldnt have let it run through the weekend.
  • #10,551
  • Jan 18, 2008 10:54am Jan 18, 2008 10:54am
brett:

It's also a good idea to draw the trendlines, s/r levels, and channels on the 1hr as well...not too many though. It can get to the point where you can't 'see' any more. Less is better but if you have these on the 1hr it helps to define profit targets. This is even more important when the 4hr is 'stuck'.

Chart:
Attached Image
  • #10,552
  • Jan 18, 2008 11:31am Jan 18, 2008 11:31am
Quoting maxster
Long CAD at 1.0260

- SL 1.0211
- TP 1.0299 (will take 100% profit due to slow trend market)
- Will half SL risk when price reaches 1.0277
- Will give trade time to play out

Early entry on 1H showing good support with tail at 4H 21EMA.
Came back after lunch position closed automatically at +39pips.

I am taking Ryan's advice and no longer staring at my trades.
  • #10,553
  • Jan 18, 2008 12:40pm Jan 18, 2008 12:40pm
Hello here is the written copy of todays wrap up, MP3 is post #10545. thanks.
Nadia.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Daily wrap up Jan 18th 2008.doc   7 KB | 509 downloads
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,554
  • Jan 18, 2008 12:51pm Jan 18, 2008 12:51pm
Here is a picture of euro finding support on 200 SMA which is also 50 fib from the last move up. just another reason why it is finding support at this level, if it breaks it can go to the 365 which is close to the 61.8 fib as well as 89 MA on the daily. Lets see which direction it decides to take. No trades for me so far. Tails = stingers = ouch !!! everywhere. Hope fully a clear direction next week. Sit tight. and have a great weekend.
Nadia.

Palmer: sorry for late reply i ve been in the Forex FOG. i did not take the
eur-gbp down to the 89 just watched it through my foggy eyes. have a good one.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro 50 fib.jpg Size: 221 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro 61.8 fib.jpg Size: 208 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,555
  • Jan 18, 2008 12:52pm Jan 18, 2008 12:52pm
Thank you to everyone for sharing your trades.

I didn't see anything set-up on the 4 hour, everything looked out of rythem, and I am not comfortable enough to jump in on the 1 hour alone. But thanks to you posting your trades, I can learn the 1 hour without getting burned.

Palmer, you entered the EURUSD based on the near touch of the 21 EMA on the 4 hour chart, but you entered on the movement on the 1 hour.

I can see where you entered, did you enter EXACTLY after the 1 hour EURUSD with the long tail to almost the 21 4 hour EMA (1 hour 365 there as well), or did you wait 15/30 minutes for the next bar to go bearish before entering?

I see this in hindsight as a great trade, but I think I would have hesitated at the close of the 1 hour with the long bullish tail, just because the 1 hour looked bullish at that point.
  • #10,556
  • Jan 18, 2008 4:11pm Jan 18, 2008 4:11pm
unlv:

I pretty much entered right after that bullish 1hr candle closed. When that candle was forming and the high of the candle (which formed the bullish tail area of that candle) was starting to come back down from the resistance area. That really got my attention. My exact entry time was about one minute after that candle closed. I guess you can call it 'a trade based on the past'. The 4hr was still within that box, price hit that res. area again and didn't make it through. Started to retreat (albeit only 1 minute went by) and then it was a matter of trusting what happened in the past to predict what will happen again.

If that 1hr candle would have closed at the high of that candle, no tail, then I would have waited. This would have made the close a lot closer to the 21 on the 4hr and would cause me to start thinking that price may breach the 21 and close above it. That would have painted a whole different picture...waiting another 4 hours.

This was a risky move I agree. But again, the reasoning behind it was the resistance that has been there for a while on the 4hr and 1hr and the 4hr at the 21 area. When I draw trendlines I do use the tails. For support and resistance areas, I use the 'area' as support and resistance; I do draw the lines through the tails and at the tops or bottoms of the candles. Same thing with the 21, I refer to it as the 21 area; plus or minus a few pips.

Hope some of this helps...

4hr resistance 'area'...
Attached Image
  • #10,557
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:06pm Jan 18, 2008 5:06pm
That is EXCELLENT help, Palmer.

Thank you!
  • #10,558
  • Jan 19, 2008 3:30am Jan 19, 2008 3:30am
could it be that eur/usd continue downwards from here? as you see on the 4h chart the support level @ 4600 has been attacked 8 times while the resistance level @ 4700 just 3 times. there is also a descending triangle pattern which is normally supposed to break to the downside. be ready!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #10,559
  • Jan 19, 2008 6:32am Jan 19, 2008 6:32am
Quoting JimDandy
Yes its a Tc but not interesting when its on the 200.....note this is a gmt+2 chart I do believe the 200 will be pierced but i'll wait just the same and maybe enter on 1hr in a pull back....but either way I'm going to let the market show its hand first....pipip...Jimdandy

HI jimdandy , i saw in ur charts , there is xxx min left to the next bar and there appear GMT TIME ,LONDON TIME ,NEW YOUR TIME ,etc , how to setup in the MT softwear . and

where download the v104 u used?

thanks and pips for ur kindness..
  • #10,560
  • Jan 19, 2008 9:00am Jan 19, 2008 9:00am
Quoting Palmer
unlv:


Hope some of this helps...

4hr resistance 'area'...
Wonderful insight, thanks for the help Palmer!

With the help of so many looking out for each others best interests, how can one go wrong in this forum? I just might be a half decent trader some day..
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