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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,241
  • Jan 18, 2008 6:39am Jan 18, 2008 6:39am
Quoting Pip Hunter
In answer to your question Skunny...I come up with the same fib placement as Thexter did, be it right or wrong. But I think it's correct until told otherwise
I was starting to like that last chart from Dagoods
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #2,242
  • Jan 18, 2008 6:42am Jan 18, 2008 6:42am
Quoting Thexder
I was starting to like that last chart from Dagoods
I'm starting to think price may never return that high on this pair but..... if it did....
i betcha many fibs including that one would be workable if managed... hmmmmmmmmmmm
  • #2,243
  • Jan 18, 2008 6:48am Jan 18, 2008 6:48am
Quoting dagoods
i betcha many would be workable if managed... hmmmmmmmmmmm
What if we came up with an unconventional method - who says where lines have to be drawn? What if we draw a fib across a "high" located somewhere near the 50% level of a bigger move, and a "low" located at the HIGH of the next swing peak/valley after the first 61.8% retracement of that big up move, the 38.2% extension of that must be met at some point....
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #2,244
  • Edited 7:00am Jan 18, 2008 6:49am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting Skunny
Does this look like a place someone might draw a fib from which to trade? If so answer yes if not tell me why.
That's how I would place the fib cause the way the fib levels interact as S/R with price.
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  • #2,245
  • Jan 18, 2008 6:52am Jan 18, 2008 6:52am
Maybe instead of a training course, Skunny should work on an educational toy like one of those infant toys where they have to fit the proper shape and size blocks into the same shape of holes...

There could be this big play field with interchangeable chart overlays and you have to pick up the right fib from the pile and place it on the chart, pull the lever and see what you've won?

Up to 4 players, last one to blow an account wins.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #2,246
  • Jan 18, 2008 6:52am Jan 18, 2008 6:52am
Quoting Thexder
What if we came up with an unconventional method - who says where lines have to be drawn? What if we draw a fib across a "high" located somewhere near the 50% level of a bigger move, and a "low" located at the HIGH of the next swing peak/valley after the first 61.8% retracement of that big up move, the 38.2% extension of that must be met at some point....

I think we are about to get the answer! (US session) lol if my spidey senses are correct

lets watch the chart!

I could be wrong....but i might be right
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  • #2,247
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:12am Jan 18, 2008 7:12am
Skunny,

jumping into this debate, I would not pull a fib there. Looking at the weekly chart, the down move has hit the 138 profit target to the pip and has pulled back, headed north. Moving to the daily chart, we have a 2 day range which is pointing north. As price has reached its weekly TP, then I'm under the impression that a reverse move is expected. So from these two TF's it looks like we expect price to go long.
So, moving to the hourly TF, the fib you have pulled is contra to the expected move as also indicated by the daily range. The hi at 212.42 is the hi of the daily range and I would be looking for that to be broken, giving some direction for price. At the moment we have no strong direction. (Correct me if I'm wrong please)
I would place my fib here but the price reverses and takes out the low, but because that is contra to the daily direction I would not trade it. Price then makes another Hi and so I would redraw my fib to that from the previous low.
I would now be waiting for that to be broken long, giving direction. I'd then go down several TF's and look for smaller ranges to trade in the same direction.
I've got a problem with my charts so cant show this properly, but holla if you want something and I'll see what I can do.

I'm having a weird feeling here! This somehow seems to make sense to me! Thats a first!!
Cheers Skunny
  • #2,248
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:21am Jan 18, 2008 7:21am
Quoting Pipo
That's how I would place the fib cause the way the fib levels interact as S/R with price.

Did you just place this fib here or did you walk it from a previous move?
Robonacci com
  • #2,249
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:23am Jan 18, 2008 7:23am
Quoting seb123
Skunny,

jumping into this debate, I would not pull a fib there. Looking at the weekly chart, the down move has hit the 138 profit target to the pip and has pulled back, headed north. Moving to the daily chart, we have a 2 day range which is pointing north. As price has reached its weekly TP, then I'm under the impression that a reverse move is expected. So from these two TF's it looks like we expect price to go long.
So, moving to the hourly TF, the fib you have pulled is contra to the expected move as also indicated by the daily range. The hi at 212.42 is the hi of the daily range and I would be looking for that to be broken, giving some direction for price. At the moment we have no strong direction. (Correct me if I'm wrong please)
I would place my fib here but the price reverses and takes out the low, but because that is contra to the daily direction I would not trade it. Price then makes another Hi and so I would redraw my fib to that from the previous low.
I would now be waiting for that to be broken long, giving direction. I'd then go down several TF's and look for smaller ranges to trade in the same direction.
I've got a problem with my charts so cant show this properly, but holla if you want something and I'll see what I can do.

I'm having a weird feeling here! This somehow seems to make sense to me! Thats a first!!
Cheers Skunny

HEY! Nice analysis.
Robonacci com
  • #2,250
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:28am Jan 18, 2008 7:28am
Quoting Skunny
Did you just place this fib here or did you walk it from a previous move?
How about this? A small retracement after where I put the big fib's high allowed me to put that first high there, it was broken, then maybe(?) reached 1.382 and from there I made a new one. My fib levels aren't correct so I'm guessing it made it to 1.382

Edit: It fell just short of reaching 1.382. Oh well...I haven't slept.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #2,251
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:33am Jan 18, 2008 7:33am
Quoting Skunny
Did you just place this fib here or did you walk it from a previous move?
yes I walked it from previous moves.
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  • #2,252
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:39am Jan 18, 2008 7:39am
Quoting Pipo
yes I walked it from previous moves.
I kinda thought so
Robonacci com
  • #2,253
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:42am Jan 18, 2008 7:42am
Skunny, I don't have enough time to think this through before work and I don't want to miss out on being wrong! LOL. Plus I'm trying to offer a view that I don't think many others will share. Just want you to see my impression of this

If we're going strictly on one hour charts and from the information in the dates given, this is how I see it.

The magenta fibs represent what could end up being the last mini cycle in larger overall downward trend. It tried to break to the downside, but failed to reach the target. It went thru the buy signal and hit the target there. I'm leaving the magenta fibs on the chart for now just because the old buy line has been a support level 5 times now. Anyway, the yellow fib setup represents the move up that completed in the magenta cycle. The yellow has achieved its target to the upside now, well within a pip or two anyway, but that counts!!! The gray fibs represent the mini cycle of the just completed new high.

I normally don't clutter up my charts like this, but I just wanted to show you the progession of my warped thoughts. I didn't have more than 3 minutes to look this up and type it out so this is my raw gut feeling on this and I'm sure its wrong and you're ready to butcher it and I certainly welcome that!!!
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  • #2,254
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:04am Jan 18, 2008 8:04am
Quoting Skunny
The more examples the better from whomever........

I need to know where people are at, thanks!
Hi Skunny,
This is where I had mine drawn from a couple of days ago.
Does not seem to have completed the cycle yet IMO.
Cheers,
Chris
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I just wanna have some fun (and maybe make a few green pips along the way).
  • #2,255
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:21am Jan 18, 2008 8:21am
Quoting Thexder
My thought is no because the up move before the fib was the master fib to watch for before that one was drawn, and the master's high was broken so I'd be watching for the completion of that bigger fib, OR if price was consolidating within the big up move in the meantime, I'd draw a fib within there perhaps to monitor while waiting for the big up move to get back in gear...but right now the small down fib and the big up fib are siamese fibs and I'd give priority to the bigger one.
Hello Thexder,
You took the words right out of my mouth (well almost, you said it much better than I would have).
Mark
  • #2,256
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:24am Jan 18, 2008 8:24am
I have seen a few charts exactly like Skunny's and mine is too. I got to work and looked at my chart and my fib was in exactly the same place and I will point out, based on my history observing p/a that the broken support has not been retested as resistance and it lines up perfectly with WHAT????? Yeppy,
the 138. If I/we are wrong Skunny...please show us why, and can I request a direct answer.....pretty please... the riddles are getting me loopy
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  • #2,257
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:28am Jan 18, 2008 8:28am
No email as yet, I checked my junk mail as well, but more importantly.....are we going to be lucky enough to get a weekend practice assignment
PipHunter
  • #2,258
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:34am Jan 18, 2008 8:34am
Quoting Pip Hunter
No email as yet, I checked my junk mail as well, but more importantly.....are we going to be lucky enough to get a weekend practice assignment
sorry Mr. Hunter you should have it now
Robonacci com
  • #2,259
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:40am Jan 18, 2008 8:40am
Quoting 4X4EVER
I have seen a few charts exactly like Skunny's and mine is too. I got to work and looked at my chart and my fib was in exactly the same place and I will point out, based on my history observing p/a that the broken support has not been retested as resistance and it lines up perfectly with WHAT????? Yeppy,
the 138. If I/we are wrong Skunny...please show us why, and can I request a direct answer.....pretty please... the riddles are getting me loopy
Hey there Forever,

You might be getting loopy because you think I'm giving riddles.

I am just trying to give focus so you don't get off track.

The answer has already been given grasshopper, you must clear your mind of the riddles you see, for you have entered a forest that doesn't exist.
Robonacci com
  • #2,260
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:41am Jan 18, 2008 8:41am
Skunn, I was watching that trade set up live and I'll tell you why I didn't take it based on the fib(no I don't think it's a valid place to draw the fib). The area of support were you have your fibs drawn is almost equal to the support level of the previous fib cycle going long(I was in on that and it hit the extension plus some). My thinking was that since it couldn't establish a new low or higher low, then we weren't seeing a true place to draw them. Hopefully I made sense in what I said.
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