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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,521
  • Jan 18, 2008 1:20am Jan 18, 2008 1:20am
Yes the swissie gives a tc on its way to the 89......any takers? The swissie moving up is making me expect the eurusd going down....they both cant go up long.....pipip........Jimdandy.
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  • #10,522
  • Edited 5:52am Jan 18, 2008 2:19am | Edited 5:52am
Hi,

I shorted gbp/usd and eur/usd

gbp/usd short 1.9693
sl 1.9740 (2x - 47) 89sma
tp1 1.9657 (+36) 21ema
tp2 1.9620 (+73)
94:109

edit:
tp1:+36
tp2 moved to 1.9538 (+110)

edit:
tp2: +110

total +146 pips

assuming resistance at 89 price should go down at least to 21.
there I will set my sl at 1.9713 (- 20) to give the price some room to go
further down to tp2

eur/usd short 1.4628
sl 1.4690 (-62)
tp1 1.4560 (+68) 365ema
62:68

eur usd shows also a short setup, although macd doesn't give indication.
price has gone through 89 and came back to almost 21. in fact to 89.
then the price moved down again finding support on the 200. the 200 has been
crossed already 5 times while the 8 has been crossed just 2 times.
there is sort of an descending triangle inbetween 8 and 200, so I'd favour a downmove
tp 365ema

edit:
morning star on 1H closing trade +/- 0


Regards
  • #10,523
  • Edited 7:20am Jan 18, 2008 3:39am | Edited 7:20am
hmmmm

I had a different view to nearly all of u!

I am bullish on the eur/usd.

on the 6pm new candle gave a slight TC, now I know it's under the 89 but it has found support on the 50% fib range of the current trend from the start of the month.

the eur/usd is in a range right now, a strong line of support at 14611. from looking at the pa i think its struggling to go lower.

I am also looking at the swissy for a lower hight short at next 10pm candle, that is still under 89 and in a down move. the rally made by the swissy is a reflection of the dumping in the share market. less risk tatics!

Good trading!

update: i can see the dump that just happened! see if it hits my stop!

update2: It's going to be a fun night! : )
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  • #10,524
  • Jan 18, 2008 4:01am Jan 18, 2008 4:01am
Quoting Abz
MACD signalling a TC not very strong! but I can see a evening starish at the 16:00 candle, also I have some trend lines joining
... because it wasn't formed after an uptrend. As far as 4hr candles are concerned, EUR/USD is moving sideways. I don't see any trend there right now.
  • #10,525
  • Jan 18, 2008 4:03am Jan 18, 2008 4:03am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
hmmmm

I had a different view to nearly all of u!

I am bullish on the eur/usd.

on the 6pm new candle gave a slight TC, now I know it's under the 89 but it has found support on the 50% fib range of the current trend from the start of the month.

the eur/usd is in a range right now, a strong line of support at 14611. from looking at the pa i think its struggling to go lower.

I am also looking at the swissy for a lower hight short at next 10pm candle, that is still under 89 and in a down move. the rally made by the swissy is a reflection of the dumping in the share market. less risk tatics!

Good trading!

update: i can see the dump that just happened! see if it hits my stop!

update2: It's going to be a fun night! : )

Theres a huge GBP dump taking place on the retail sales figures which were terrible. This is giving some strength to USD but not much, so far EUR/USD is holding although slightly down. The 4H 200 break is something Im looking at as a sign of weakness, currently its holding below but we still have 2 hours to go on that candle.
  • #10,526
  • Jan 18, 2008 4:10am Jan 18, 2008 4:10am
Going through my charts nothing stands out to me. I'm just gonna sit back and wait for now. I dont like to trade unless something yells out "trade me". But thats just me I'm a bit conservative. The yen pairs seem they may go down more. Well see
  • #10,527
  • Edited 5:13am Jan 18, 2008 5:01am | Edited 5:13am
Quoting brettboz
Theres a huge GBP dump taking place on the retail sales figures which were terrible. This is giving some strength to USD but not much, so far EUR/USD is holding although slightly down. The 4H 200 break is something Im looking at as a sign of weakness, currently its holding below but we still have 2 hours to go on that candle.
cheers for the reply,

I did not know about the report. she is sure under pressure if that support point breaks then it will throw me right off. i am still in there by a finger nail!

anyone trading the eur/chf? It seems to trend very smoothly on the 4 hour.

again that price serves as support (for now) I am liking what i am seeing.
  • #10,528
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:38am Jan 18, 2008 5:38am
Dear Vererans, I need some clarification about the trade that I would have taken if I was in front of the computer.

Attached is the snapshot. We have a TC Short signal on EURCHF, with a stacking of the MAs. The price is also bouncing off the 21 MA.

As you can see, using reasonable Stop losses you would get stopped out. Is there anyting in the charts that would prevent you from taking this trade?

Thank you,
Alex
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  • #10,529
  • Jan 18, 2008 6:49am Jan 18, 2008 6:49am
Quoting yofatmamma
Dear Vererans, I need some clarification about the trade that I would have taken if I was in front of the computer.

Attached is the snapshot. We have a TC Short signal on EURCHF, with a stacking of the MAs. The price is also bouncing off the 21 MA.

As you can see, using reasonable Stop losses you would get stopped out. Is there anyting in the charts that would prevent you from taking this trade?

Thank you,
Alex

yes ,signal from macd TC(bounce 21 ema) but u must draw channel ,i thing the signal TC near the bottom channel or support ,don't open trade short near support .so the R:R not good cause stoploss above 21 ema and tp in previous low.please mr.philip helpme or other trader with macd h4,if my explanation wrong.thanks


"Together More Better Than Alone"
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  • #10,530
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:02am Jan 18, 2008 7:02am
A few thoughts on things:

I've been hearing that the Fed may step in at any time to lower interest rates. If this is so, then the big boys are all on the sidelines waiting to see how much. In a small nutshell, that may be the reason why we are still in this box.......
  • #10,531
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:05am Jan 18, 2008 7:05am
Quoting yofatmamma
Dear Vererans, I need some clarification about the trade that I would have taken if I was in front of the computer.

Attached is the snapshot. We have a TC Short signal on EURCHF, with a stacking of the MAs. The price is also bouncing off the 21 MA.

As you can see, using reasonable Stop losses you would get stopped out. Is there anyting in the charts that would prevent you from taking this trade?

Thank you,
Alex
Hi Alex,

I'm no veteran but I just took a quick look at the chart. I think that on the face of it, it would have looked a reasonable trade. But, there is recent heavy support at the level of the 200 on the monthly chart. The 2 bear candles show less aggression than the single bull candle that preceded them, and there is a feeling of uncertainty in that sideways movement. The volume appeared to be picking up, but the 2 bear candles that gave you your entry seem a bit weak, and I don't know how good your R:R would have been. So, with the aggression seeming to just slightly favour the bulls, coupled with a bullish divergence on the lows, and a general feeling of uncertainty in the side channel, the game possibly needed to play out a little longer. It may have mean't missing a move, but these can be picked up on retracements when the direction and intention is a lot clearer.

Just my thoughts, hope they help?
Rebecca.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #10,532
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:21am Jan 18, 2008 7:21am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
hmmmm

I had a different view to nearly all of u!

I am bullish on the eur/usd.

on the 6pm new candle gave a slight TC, now I know it's under the 89 but it has found support on the 50% fib range of the current trend from the start of the month.

the eur/usd is in a range right now, a strong line of support at 14611. from looking at the pa i think its struggling to go lower.

I am also looking at the swissy for a lower hight short at next 10pm candle, that is still under 89 and in a down move. the rally made by the swissy is a reflection of the dumping in the share market. less risk tatics!

Good trading!

update: i can see the dump that just happened! see if it hits my stop!

update2: It's going to be a fun night! : )
took profits +43

I have a swissy short which I will leave open. that has a 39 pip limit see if we reach it.

Have a good weekend every one
  • #10,533
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:21am Jan 18, 2008 7:21am
Let see if the CAD can find support on the 21. Looking for 1H support pattern .....

Lately trades need to be placed from the 1H as market speed is quite slow.

Maybe Eur will finally start moving again!
  • #10,534
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:29am Jan 18, 2008 7:29am
I'm still looking at that long on the U/J as a CT to the 89. I'm sitting on my hands because it's a CT and I vowed to stick to TC's only, but it is sooo tempting! I shall wait & see what happens, maybe take a TC down from the 89 if it does get there. There's a resistance point here & at 107.90-ish. I shall be patient, I shall be patient...

Looking at it again, EricThePip is right, it is weak around the 21 and there is still loads of uncertainty. I shall stay away; CT = career trashing, CT = career trashing...
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #10,535
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:36am Jan 18, 2008 7:36am
my h4 candle is going to close about 1:30 hours ,if it closes well, i'd planning to short around 1.1020 level
any idea?
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  • #10,536
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:47am Jan 18, 2008 7:47am
Quoting bshadroo
my h4 candle is going to close about 1:30 hours ,if it closes well, i'd planning to short around 1.1020 level
any idea?
i am in there already brother. she is finding some 21 love but with the news coming out in save the us economy, the usd may not be so popular again for a little while! (i mean little). IMO

i entered due to lower high Macd still under 89 it's in a down move, I treated this as a retracment rally in the trend.

follow the system rules, they will tell u what's right to do.

hope that helps
  • #10,537
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:16am Jan 18, 2008 8:16am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
i am in there already brother. she is finding some 21 love but with the news coming out in save the us economy, the usd may not be so popular again for a little while! (i mean little). IMO

i entered due to lower high Macd still under 89 it's in a down move, I treated this as a retracment rally in the trend.

follow the system rules, they will tell u what's right to do.

hope that helps
thx
where is your entry?is it below the 1.1020? do u move ur stoploss to BE?did u enter on h1 or h4 chart?whould u please post ur h4 chart?
  • #10,538
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:17am Jan 18, 2008 8:17am
Quoting Palmer
A few thoughts on things:

I've been hearing that the Fed may step in at any time to lower interest rates. If this is so, then the big boys are all on the sidelines waiting to see how much. In a small nutshell, that may be the reason why we are still in this box.......
If Fed is going to lower rates, then it is going to be a good bull sign for GU, creating another shoulder for weekly chart, maybe? Candlestick at weekly is currently forming a reversal sign, though it is not yet closed.
My 2 cents.
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  • #10,539
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:18am Jan 18, 2008 8:18am
Quoting bshadroo
i want to show u 2 possible trades which seems nobody take them.let's speak about why we didnt take thease 2 signals?lets dont say:"i didnt take them,so.. doesnt matter,let it go." maybe next time u take the trades which looks perfect but doenst work.if we learn why we should not take thease 2 trades in eu ,maybe next time we doest do mistake.

well,we all know 200ma in eu has showed to be a very strong support/resistance in recent weeks ,
so ..why we should not take the first trade? a hammer of the 200ma with a long tail and with supporting by macd signal (u see by #1 in picture) its looks good but stoploss will be hitted after
... why we shouldnt take the second trade ?a close below 200ma with supporting by macd signal(TC) (u see by #2 in picture) its looks good but SL will be hitted after
i know u guys have alot of reasons about, so please share them ,and please dont just speak about succesfull trades,i think we need to show some possible trades which doesnt work.
thx
hi bshadroo,
i just want to share my thoughts regarding the two 4h signals you were wondering about. first of all the 4h macd hasn't been very friendly in the recent past. the price movements have been way too sharp for the 4h macd. you had to be very, very careful to dare to trade something. fundamentally both currencies eur and usd are questionable at the present and that's exactly what the chart represents. as you can see all moving averages have come together. i'd say it's about time to take a break from the e/u.

back to the charts now..
your signal nr.1
round bottom, candles and rhythm - everything was OK, BUT at that point I wasn't even considering a CT trade due to the huge downmove three candles before. instead i noticed a rectangle shaped consolidation on 1h. then it was either a breakout trade to the downside or positioning for a downmove off the top resistance. the picture shows where the early entry could have been made using the 1h graph to position oneself for the possible TC downwards. after that 4h gave a TC signal and that brings us to the 2nd part of your question.

your signal nr.2
the main reason I wasn't too eager to enter immediately in the heat of the moment was the missed opportunity to position myself off the 1h like I just explained above. but there were also other warning signs to this signal. the signal candle was almost 100 pips in range. it had reached +/- the previous low and retraced with a tail. perhaps the best thing to do was to look for a pullback to the broken support of the same rectangle on the 1h and wait for the move away confirmation. as you see that never happened - after a spinner and a hanging man the price turned completely around.

i hope some of it makes sense.
have a good weekend!
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  • #10,540
  • Edited 8:34am Jan 18, 2008 8:21am | Edited 8:34am
Quoting bshadroo
thx
where is your entry?is it below the 1.1020? do u move ur stoploss to BE?
11024.5 is my entry yeh my stop is at BE but I am still up watching it, i think there is a report coming out in the us soon.

have entered? there was a heap of buying off the 21 ema

closed out my swissy short. +4
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