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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,201
  • Edited Jan 18, 2008 12:31am Jan 17, 2008 10:55pm | Edited Jan 18, 2008 12:31am
I know Skunny said to fib out weekly and monthly....does that mean just the last week or month or possibly zooming out to place fibs over a range of swing hi/lo's over several weeks or months to show entry points?[/quote]


Piphitman,

I am super interested in this.
It stands that you fib one thing like you fib everything else otherwise this is discretionary me thinks. I am working on tfs... and pa..

I have a suggestion... TRY... drawing you fib on a different tf and scaling 1 tf to trade it. ... but use the rules you normally do to draw. Let me know what you come up with this just came to me while I was posting about something else... It may solve MY fib placement questions. Maybe yours too..

I am interested to see your results. check it out and i will too. could be wrong.. am a lot. Looked good on UY.really good.

Sizz.

wait check that... Fib the higher tf and look at the lower tf for confirmation.that would fit with what Skunny said...so I like that more..thinking on the fly..

edit alright I ahve a live set up running.. I am allowing for .5-1 pip for "pip perfect' I am doing it on a super small tf. If it works I am going to sleep andtesting tomorrow if not I am tweaking and testing all through london. and ny like a maniac. thena gain I need my beauty sleep.hmm

I have a pierce... does it complete or rocket the other way... I feel like I am live trade calling..with all the nerve jangling "fun" well lets see..could be the 4 cherry coke zeros..

alright it has come within 2 pips of my tp I am going to wait for it to either complete or break polar opposite. it failed;(
  • #2,202
  • Jan 17, 2008 11:33pm Jan 17, 2008 11:33pm
Quoting sizzler
I know Skunny said to fib out weekly and monthly....does that mean just the last week or month or possibly zooming out to place fibs over a range of swing hi/lo's over several weeks or months to show entry points?
Here's what I do. Skunny or Bo may spank me.

I'm drawing the fibs of the previous week high/low and leave it for the current week as a guide, S/R help and to even trade the 0/100 breakout.
And then I use a second fib which I walk through the week from swing to swing...
Works for me and makes it KISS
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,203
  • Edited 12:50am Jan 18, 2008 12:37am | Edited 12:50am
I think you are right, this is a simple breakout system (based on Skunnys guidance sofar, but remember, he has only revealed 2%...). It works pretty well on trending markets, but not on ranging markets. It is not very efficient even on trending markets as you are able to grab only 61% of the previous move max.

This system is similar to K.Harvell's Peaks and Valleys approach, but that just works much more effiently during trending. It is extremely KISS.

One more common issue. This thread has pretty ambitious goal. To make that goal more credible, i think

  1. a training plan or outline would be nice, how are we going to proceed to that goal, what we still need to learn
  2. we need much more support from the teachers than they currently give: explain the "theory" first, and then move to practical excercises, not just throw in something on ad-hoc basis like Gann lines
  3. more critical attitude from thread followers, if you are not happy with some issue, say it loud, don't just noob there - constructive criticism is badly needed in these forums

BR,
R



Quoting DXTrade
Here's what I do. Skunny or Bo may spank me.

I'm drawing the fibs of the previous week high/low and leave it for the current week as a guide, S/R help and to even trade the 0/100 breakout.
And then I use a second fib which I walk through the week from swing to swing...
Works for me and makes it KISS
  • #2,204
  • Jan 18, 2008 1:47am Jan 18, 2008 1:47am
Quoting Rocroy
I think you are right, this is a simple breakout system (based on Skunny's guidance so far, but remember, he has only revealed 2%...). It works pretty well on trending markets, but not on ranging markets. It is not very efficient even on trending markets as you are able to grab only 61% of the previous move max.

This system is similar to K.Harvell's Peaks and Valleys approach, but that just works much more efficiently during trending. It is extremely KISS.

One more common issue. This thread has pretty ambitious goal. To make that goal more credible, i think

  1. a training plan or outline would be nice, how are we going to proceed to that goal, what we still need to learn
  2. we need much more support from the teachers than they currently give: explain the "theory" first, and then move to practical exercises, not just throw in something on ad-hoc basis like Gann lines
  3. more critical attitude from thread followers, if you are not happy with some issue, say it loud, don't just noob there - constructive criticism is badly needed in these forums

BR,
R

Rocroy..

Thank you for your insight.

1) I believe the goal of the thread was stated in post number 1. "I've opened this thread for quality conversations and debate about learning HOW to trade."

2) I don't think this is a simple breakout system because Skunny isn't teaching a system.
"Disclaimer: I will do my best to answer all the questions I can. However, it won't be possible to answer all of them, I'm sure. Keep your questions related to the philosophies of trading itself. I won't have time to answer questions about platforms and systems or anything else unrelated to our main discussion."

3) The teachers have realized that there is more to teach than they could ever do in this thread...that why they are trying to set up a workshop as stated in this thread:

Trading Workshop Possibility - Skunny & Bobokus


4)The whole basis of the thread was to keep it positive...without overly critical comments, or negative comments. Constructive criticism is good.


I'm sure you've read through all the posts, and i am happy to see you on board. Anything that you have found in your experience with fibs and their applications to successful trading would be greatly appreciated by all!



Charlie
"Finally Indicator Free"

  • #2,205
  • Jan 18, 2008 2:17am Jan 18, 2008 2:17am
Quoting Rocroy
It works pretty well on trending markets, but not on ranging markets. It is not very efficient even on trending markets as you are able to grab only 61% of the previous move max.

R
I'm pretty sure that if you take a currency that you think is in a trading range and play around with different timeframes, you'll see a trend. Or if you see a trend in one timeframe, you may see a range in another. A range is just another cycle in the overall movement. Each cycle has other cycles built into it.

IMHO, there is no such thing as a trading range or a trend, just price action. Most traders think of a trend and start drooling. They think that trends are easy money...but if thats so, then why do most fail at trading? I mean all you gotta do is enter and just ride the dang thing, right?

As far as the 61% max thing (or 38% in my case), so what? If I were almost guaranteed to reach a certain % each time out (if I'm plotting the dang things correctly), then I'm pretty dang happy. When I traded Google a few years ago, it had average daily ranges of anywhere between 5-10 points per day. I made a killing on that thing, not by making 5-10 points each trade, but by taking 1 to 1.50 points (thats a small move in GOOG terms) 2-3 times per day, just picking out the higher percentage plays
  • #2,206
  • Jan 18, 2008 2:44am Jan 18, 2008 2:44am
"I know Skunny said to fib out weekly and monthly....does that mean just the last week or month or possibly zooming out to place fibs over a range of swing hi/lo's over several weeks or months to show entry points?[/quote]"


Sizz,

I was wondering the same thing so I quizzed Bo in his thread. He said to do the previous monthly and weekly candles, and then daily and hourly were dependent on what you are looking for.

"2. The weekly fib is drawn on the high and low points of the previous week.

3. The swing can be used to measure basically 1 single movement to many movements ,it all depends on what you want is to show you."

Hope that helps.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,207
  • Edited 3:02am Jan 18, 2008 2:51am | Edited 3:02am
Quoting Rocroy
........................
One more common issue. This thread has pretty ambitious goal. To make that goal more credible, i think

  1. a training plan or outline would be nice, how are we going to proceed to that goal, what we still need to learn
  2. we need much more support from the teachers than they currently give: explain the "theory" first, and then move to practical excercises, not just throw in something on ad-hoc basis like Gann lines
  3. more critical attitude from thread followers, if you are not happy with some issue, say it loud, don't just noob there - constructive criticism is badly needed in these forums

BR,
R

Hi Rocroy, I noticed you have made some positive comments previously, so maybe I can offer another viewpoint on your statements above. The training plan outlined was for us to study price action, not for Skunny / Bo to teach a system. So I do agree with your first bullet point but it is too premature at this point. I have been studying the markets for 20 years (professionally since 1993) and just tonight completed the first round of tests on an addition to my professional fib trading. This addition came to me in a "AHA" moment after several days of vHands accelerated trading. This is what Skunny had hoped for.

Which leads to your point # 2: the theory has to be determined by you, not the "teacher". When you study PA it will be your system that is developed. So, your point 3, the critical attitude should be back testing, taking notes, bettering your system, correct, back test, study, rules, back test, etc. Why should I offer constructive criticism to anyone but myself. Skunny was very clear he was not here to teach a system.

Please don't see these comments as confrontational, just another viewpoint.

P.S. - I gotta go back to testing - I am stoked about my "AHA" idea. I haven't slept in 2 days, but Saturday is coming and I can sleep then.
  • #2,208
  • Edited 3:44am Jan 18, 2008 3:12am | Edited 3:44am
Charlie, thanks for your post. See my comments below.

R

PS. To all who replied my posting: thanks for your comments, some of them have been very good, but i just don't want to start a debate here, i simply haven't got time for that.


Quoting Charlie
Rocroy..

Thank you for your insight.

1) I believe the goal of the thread was stated in post number 1. "I've opened this thread for quality conversations and debate about learning HOW to trade."

From recent Skunny's post "The quest is to find a way to trade that an entire group can trade from without much discretion. It can happen and will happen if I have any say in the matter."

So the original goal has slightly evolved... imo the previous is pretty close to trading systematically according to the same plan / similar approach.
2) I don't think this is a simple breakout system because Skunny isn't teaching a system.
"Disclaimer: I will do my best to answer all the questions I can. However, it won't be possible to answer all of them, I'm sure. Keep your questions related to the philosophies of trading itself. I won't have time to answer questions about platforms and systems or anything else unrelated to our main discussion."

You are right, there is no system yet. But that's how teachings sofar are interpreted and used, as a breakout system. See also question 1.

3) The teachers have realized that there is more to teach than they could ever do in this thread...that why they are trying to set up a workshop as stated in this thread:

Trading Workshop Possibility - Skunny & Bobokus


That is great but very few of us can or want attend the workshop. So i'm putting my hopes on this thread.

And even if I could attend, i would surely like to know little bit more about the workshop (like any other workshop to attend to). Checked the workshop thread and there is practically nothing about the contents. Well, perhaps it is more like a social event, who knows? If you have the time and money, then why not?

4)The whole basis of the thread was to keep it positive...without overly critical comments, or negative comments.

Ok, only positive comments from now on ...

I'm sure you've read through all the posts, and i am happy to see you on board. Anything that you have found in your experience with fibs and their applications to successful trading would be greatly appreciated by all!



Charlie
"Finally Indicator Free"

  • #2,209
  • Edited 4:29am Jan 18, 2008 4:24am | Edited 4:29am
Quoting Rocroy
I think you are right, this is a simple breakout system (based on Skunnys guidance sofar, but remember, he has only revealed 2%...). It works pretty well on trending markets, but not on ranging markets. It is not very efficient even on trending markets as you are able to grab only 61% of the previous move max.

This system is similar to K.Harvell's Peaks and Valleys approach, but that just works much more effiently during trending. It is extremely KISS.

One more common issue. This thread has pretty ambitious goal. To make that goal more credible, i think

  1. a training plan or outline would be nice, how are we going to proceed to that goal, what we still need to learn
  2. we need much more support from the teachers than they currently give: explain the "theory" first, and then move to practical excercises, not just throw in something on ad-hoc basis like Gann lines
  3. more critical attitude from thread followers, if you are not happy with some issue, say it loud, don't just noob there - constructive criticism is badly needed in these forums

BR,
R

IMO it would be a good idea if you took one of Karmostaji's world famous "Patience Pills" and then looked back thru' a few of Skunnys posts so that you are up to date with what Skunny's doing.

Also there is a saying about "biting the hand that feeds you" - are we in an expensive paid for thread with a professional teacher, or a thread that is taking a lot of freely give time and effort by its instigator?

Just my thoughts http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,210
  • Jan 18, 2008 4:39am Jan 18, 2008 4:39am
Things have suddenly got a lot clearer for me in the last few days, putting all the comments together has helped me to make sense of it all. Thanks to everyone for your input.

Before I go into it, Skunny said a few posts back, that we cant just pull a fib we have to let PA determine where it will be. In his more recent posts, 2141,2149,2156 and 2157 he make some very interesting comments which I feel should be borne in mind.

I want to share my thoughts on how I think we can use the different TF's. I have posted my charts below to hopefully make it easier to understand my ramblings. Let me know if it comes out gibberish. I like to use EJ, hope you dont mind, the last few days have been very interesting and show up some very valid points, IMHO. Ok here goes.

Chart1 shows a weekly range made up of 2 weekly bars, with blue fib. The range was pierced this week and the 138 profit target reached, the 162 was almost reached but price has pulled back.

The way I see it is that once the break is made, "Skunny's law" states that all things being ok we should reach a profit target at the 138 level. Ok then, this means that if the range breaks short then that is the ultimate direction price will go, via the winding road of retracements. If we move to a lower time frame of say 15m or even 5m we can then follow retracements and wait for a range or ranges to develop in the direction of the profit target and trade those with a high probability of success. See chart 2.


For example, in chart 2 I have shown the breakdown of a 4H range in the 5m TF. The blue fib is the weekly TF from chart 1, the gold fib is from the H4 range which was pierced at 156.50. The range was pierced and then price retraced substantially before eventually reaching the profit target at the 138 ext. Using the 5m TF it is possible to identify around 10 (maybe more) ranges which could be traded short during this period of retracement, all with high probability of success as the main 4H TF is headed south (Skunny's law). Ultimately the 4H break reached the TP and this TF would have been traded from the break as well. This all agrees with Skunny's view that we should have more than one fib being traded at one time.

I know that the profits on the 5m ranges would be small, but as Skunny says, he only wants 3x spread and he's happy. The main thing here is the probability of success is very high, I think all the 5m ranges traded up to the 4H TP level would have been successful in this example!

There is one flaw in my example although the fundamental principle is ok, the 4H TF is pierced after the weekly TP level is reached. My view is that this is the end of the weekly cycle and therefore every TF below that also. This makes the probability of success of the 4H range reduced. However, this was such a good example (and current) that I thought it ok to use.

I hope this helps, I've personally learned a great deal from Skunny and all of the other contributors, so thnx.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,211
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:24am Jan 18, 2008 5:24am
seb123,....an excellent post. I am experiencing the same, over the past week or so, skunny and bo's threads have lifted a support/resistance veil, which until now has been limiting my results with PA trading....thanks to them (and a few others), a whole new trading experience lies ahead....and what's more, we're only scratching the surface of the arsenal of knowledge both skunny and Bo use, day in & out.
  • #2,212
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:33am Jan 18, 2008 5:33am
way to go seb! great job! way to keep it postive and back on track! Many thanks for sharing what you think you have learned! may u grow green grass and be blessed with a thousand camels!

PS Fletch will be airing on TV tongiht at 10 pm est on USA network!
  • #2,213
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:34am Jan 18, 2008 5:34am
Ok,
I have read this thread from the very start. Been back to view some posts again and I have to ask this of our fearless thread starter...master Skunny.
Skunny, in this post I am seeing that everytime there is a break of the 0 or 100 "IF" the fibs are drawn correctly that it will make it to the 138. Now, I have not really read anywhere where someone says.."oh well, it didn't go to the 138 so the market just did what it wanted to this time and didn't hold to the fib levels" but what I am seeing is..." ah, I just had my fib in the wrong place". Not from everyone mind you, but from a good many I will say. Now I don't have a problem with this, but I have yet to really hear it from you that if it breaks a high or low of a range, then it will go to the 138....not 7 out of 10 , or 5 out of 10 but 9.? out of ten???? Skunny, you have to agree that this has become pretty much an absolute in the charts being posted here so just wanting to confirm.

Thank you
  • #2,214
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:40am Jan 18, 2008 5:40am
Quoting dagoods
way to go seb! great job! way to keep it postive and back on track! Many thanks for sharing what you think you have learned! may u grow green grass and be blessed with a thousand camels!

PS Fletch will be airing on TV tongiht at 10 pm est on USA network!
hey dagoods, thnx for that. Not sure if my neighbours would be too pleased if I parked 1000 camels on my drive? But then again I don't like my neighbours!
  • #2,215
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:46am Jan 18, 2008 5:46am
Does this look like a place someone might draw a fib from which to trade? If so answer yes if not tell me why.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gytest.gif Size: 18 KB
Robonacci com
  • #2,216
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:49am Jan 18, 2008 5:49am
Quoting bronxterp
I'm pretty sure that if you take a currency that you think is in a trading range and play around with different timeframes, you'll see a trend. Or if you see a trend in one timeframe, you may see a range in another. A range is just another cycle in the overall movement. Each cycle has other cycles built into it.

IMHO, there is no such thing as a trading range or a trend, just price action. Most traders think of a trend and start drooling. They think that trends are easy money...but if thats so, then why do most fail at trading? I mean all you gotta do is enter and just ride the dang thing, right?

As far as the 61% max thing (or 38% in my case), so what? If I were almost guaranteed to reach a certain % each time out (if I'm plotting the dang things correctly), then I'm pretty dang happy. When I traded Google a few years ago, it had average daily ranges of anywhere between 5-10 points per day. I made a killing on that thing, not by making 5-10 points each trade, but by taking 1 to 1.50 points (thats a small move in GOOG terms) 2-3 times per day, just picking out the higher percentage plays
Hi BT,
I would agree with you that ranges in one time frame are a trend in another. Usually the higher the time frame, the more likely it will be in a range. Trading the 5 minute, it trends most of the time...if you look at point A to point B but all the while it moves in and out of ranges or s/r so I would have to say that I think it ranges 80% of the time overall. I guess it goes back to the "tastes great, less feeling" argument. They are both true, just one more true than the other for certain individuals. Am I making sense???? I am just saying...even on a 1 minute charts the currency will stay in a range for a certain period of time. It can be a 10 pip range or 20 or 30 but it just doesn't take off in one direction unless there is news or a factor to move it like that...so, that's why patience is the key. We must "chop wood" through the R/S levels of other ranges which is why what we are learning now can be a foundation key or a key to the kingdom...whichever you prefer....again "tastes great or less feeling"? PS don't drink the stuff...just a point...too high on life already.


Daniel
  • #2,217
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:53am Jan 18, 2008 5:53am
Quoting Skunny
Does this look like a place someone might draw a fib from which to trade? If so answer yes if not tell me why.

can we answer in a couple of hours? just kidding.... ok since no body has guts enough to answer i'll be the guinea pig.... um eenie meenie mIIINY MOE

yes, but maybe better at the swing hig to right that is just a bit higher to be safe? (Dagoods anwered ina in a small squeeky extremely uncertain voice)

Hi SKUNNY!


  • #2,218
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:54am Jan 18, 2008 5:54am
Quoting dagoods
can we answer in a couple of hours? just kidding.... ok since no body has guts enough to answer i'll be the guinea pig.... um eenie meenie mIIINY MOE

yes, but maybe better at the swing hig to right that is just a bit higher to be safe? (Dagoods anwered ina in a small squeeky extremely uncertain voice)

Hi SKUNNY!

HI DAGOODS

Thanks for keeping the thread lively
Robonacci com
  • #2,219
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:55am Jan 18, 2008 5:55am
Quoting Skunny
Does this look like a place someone might draw a fib from which to trade? If so answer yes if not tell me why.
I would say, based on what you have showed us, then yes it is because it is a cleary defined swing before it pierced the high and the low..so we let price tell us which direction because we really don't know yet...do we?. On the other hand, I think the high and low of the range ( the piercing candles) can also be drawn (maybe for a hint with some convergences at certain retracment levels as to which way it's gonna break) with a fib..but maybe after they are broken. I hope I made sense. All I know is this is a range that one way or the either is gonna be broke....we should just be ready and see it go to the 138. right???

Ok, my 2...
  • #2,220
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:55am Jan 18, 2008 5:55am
Quoting seb123
Things have suddenly got a lot clearer for me in the last few days, putting all the comments together has helped me to make sense of it all. Thanks to everyone for your input.

Before I go into it, Skunny said a few posts back, that we cant just pull a fib we have to let PA determine where it will be. In his more recent posts, 2141,2149,2156 and 2157 he make some very interesting comments which I feel should be borne in mind.

I want to share my thoughts on how I think we can use the different TF's. I have posted my charts below to hopefully make it easier to understand my ramblings. Let me know if it comes out gibberish. I like to use EJ, hope you dont mind, the last few days have been very interesting and show up some very valid points, IMHO. Ok here goes.

Chart1 shows a weekly range made up of 2 weekly bars, with blue fib. The range was pierced this week and the 138 profit target reached, the 162 was almost reached but price has pulled back.

The way I see it is that once the break is made, "Skunny's law" states that all things being ok we should reach a profit target at the 138 level. Ok then, this means that if the range breaks short then that is the ultimate direction price will go, via the winding road of retracements. If we move to a lower time frame of say 15m or even 5m we can then follow retracements and wait for a range or ranges to develop in the direction of the profit target and trade those with a high probability of success. See chart 2.


For example, in chart 2 I have shown the breakdown of a 4H range in the 5m TF. The blue fib is the weekly TF from chart 1, the gold fib is from the H4 range which was pierced at 156.50. The range was pierced and then price retraced substantially before eventually reaching the profit target at the 138 ext. Using the 5m TF it is possible to identify around 10 (maybe more) ranges which could be traded short during this period of retracement, all with high probability of success as the main 4H TF is headed south (Skunny's law). Ultimately the 4H break reached the TP and this TF would have been traded from the break as well. This all agrees with Skunny's view that we should have more than one fib being traded at one time.

I know that the profits on the 5m ranges would be small, but as Skunny says, he only wants 3x spread and he's happy. The main thing here is the probability of success is very high, I think all the 5m ranges traded up to the 4H TP level would have been successful in this example!

There is one flaw in my example although the fundamental principle is ok, the 4H TF is pierced after the weekly TP level is reached. My view is that this is the end of the weekly cycle and therefore every TF below that also. This makes the probability of success of the 4H range reduced. However, this was such a good example (and current) that I thought it ok to use.

I hope this helps, I've personally learned a great deal from Skunny and all of the other contributors, so thnx.

Hi seb123,

very good points you have there. Have the same feeling about the weeklies. Allthough not all pairs react the same to fibs one could use the previous weeks hi/lo but IMHO i feel the same way as you do and i think it is better to fib as short as possible like you did. If the cycle ends at the 138 extention of the weekly range i wouldn't have taken the trade on the 4H TF as it is a more risky trade. In many cases the price would retrace at the 138 and take out your trade on the 4H.
As you stated it worked out very good now. It was stated someware to allways keep an eye on the higher TF and never trade against then. There is just some confusion on where to fib the higher TF. According to Bo, as Mom said, it should be the hi/lo of the previous week. Hope Skunny could shed some light on the issue.

Good work Seb.

2c....
LL
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