Let's say that this is a demo account, OK?
Double top bouncing off the weekly low.
UJ looking good so far!
Hi DX,
What theory or indication do you use to tell you the cycle has ended? I noticed on your fib the bottom line says "end of cycle".
Thanks
Indicator Free Trading - Skunny
- #2,162
- Jan 17, 2008 10:22am Jan 17, 2008 10:22am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,076 Posts
Hey Webby,
Elliot Waves, although somewhat similar in idea's thrown around here, are an analytical nightmare for me. Even the best EW traders disagree where they are in a wave(abcd 12345 etc). To get good at EW takes most a very long time/many, many hours. These trades are usually many pips that are accumulated in a roller coaster ride. What I'm trying to get to, is a way to trade consistently and for modest pip totals.
This is an excellent point, but isn't that also a description of what's happening here with Fibs too?
Even the best Fib traders on this thread disagree/are confused about where to pull the fibs. To get good at Fibs takes most a very long time/many, many hours (as it is doing with many here). I shudder to think how many percentage points vHands will subtract from GDP in 2008.
I'm not picking on EW or Fibs. The same could be said for any indicator that requires discretion to place it "correctly" on the chart. Trendlines, S/R, chart patterns, etc. all suffer from this subjectivity problem. Get 10 traders in a room with the same chart and you've got yourself 11 different trendlines, 14 different Fib pulls, 32 different EW counts and 45 different chart patterns.
That being said, this is one of the best threads I've seen.
It's great because it's not another spoon-fed system, but a genuine quest for knowledge and real insight into how the market behaves. My only 2 pips at this point is that while pure research is great, eventually the quest must lead somewhere. It must lead to some kind of trading method (or more likely a set of similar methods) with rules that we can test objectively. Otherwise, we'll always be confronting the problem that Skunny pointed out above.
On with the quest for the moldy pail!
- #2,164
- Jan 17, 2008 11:01am Jan 17, 2008 11:01am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
No, we are not confused at all.
many are confused actually..... but that is not skunnys fault at all..... some take longer for it to sink in including me...but thats ok.... i like to be spoon fed as much as anyone..... but am willing to put the work in till i get it.... but i understand the desire to have more objective hard and fast rules too..... sometimes its necessary in order to progress.... seems to me that skuuny has method to his madness.... he just gave us some more pointers didn't he? methinks so!
If someone does have hard and fast rules please feel free to share though
like any system a bit of success in the beginning can be dangerous too... overconfidence is something the market is sure to punish....the market has always been that way....
glad to see some are getting it though ... this is hope for the rest of us still grappling and trying to define the skunny supadupa fibomasticator system (which has no squuigglys and is not an indicator) even though someone is sure to make a skunny indicator soon i would bet
my 2 1/2 cents on that
- #2,165
- Jan 17, 2008 11:20am Jan 17, 2008 11:20am
- | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Sedonapipper | 550 Posts
If someone does have hard and fast rules please feel free to share though
One of skunny's previous post was about not having hard and fast rules. The focus was on market flow and from what I am understanding anticipating where price has a high probability of going so one can be ready for a trade when price gets there. Skunny has taken several short trades during this thread for a few pips because short term price action within the larger context of weekly price action gave him a high probability trade so he can maintain his focuss on being a 100% trader - which in my mind is having every trade be a positive trade even if its for a few pips. One of his first guidelines was to see if the trade had the potential of 3 times the spread. One of the few guidelines he has given for an actual trade that I remember. Of course my mind forgets 80% of what it learns in a day or two so I know I have forgotten several of his other guidelines.
One of skunny's previous post was about not having hard and fast rules. The focus was on market flow and from what I am understanding anticipating where price has a high probability of going so one can be ready for a trade when price gets there. Skunny has taken several short trades during this thread for a few pips because short term price action within the larger context of weekly price action gave him a high probability trade so he can maintain his focuss on being a 100% trader - which in my mind is having every trade be a positive trade even if its for a few pips. One of his first guidelines was to see if the trade had the potential of 3 times the spread. One of the few guidelines he has given for an actual trade that I remember. Of course my mind forgets 80% of what it learns in a day or two so I know I have forgotten several of his other guidelines.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
- #2,166
- Jan 17, 2008 12:00pm Jan 17, 2008 12:00pm
This is an excellent point, but isn't that also a description of what's happening here with Fibs too?
Even the best Fib traders on this thread disagree/are confused about where to pull the fibs. To get good at Fibs takes most a very long time/many, many hours (as it is doing with many here). I shudder to think how many percentage points vHands will subtract from GDP in 2008.
I'm not picking on EW or Fibs. The same could be said for any indicator that requires discretion to place it "correctly" on the chart. Trendlines, S/R, chart patterns, etc. all suffer from this subjectivity problem. Get 10 traders in a room with the same chart and you've got yourself 11 different trendlines, 14 different Fib pulls, 32 different EW counts and 45 different chart patterns.
That being said, this is one of the best threads I've seen.
My only 2 pips at this point is that while pure research is great, eventually the quest must lead somewhere. It must lead to some kind of trading method (or more likely a set of similar methods) with rules that we can test objectively. Otherwise, we'll always be confronting the problem that Skunny pointed out above.
On with the quest for the moldy pail!
The quest is to find a way to trade that an entire group can trade from without much discretion. It can happen and will happen if I have any say in the matter.
All this feeling around - learning fibs and pulling from the wrong place is ok in my book. It needs to happen. It happened to me and will happen to anyone else that is on a similar quest. But to just lay out all the information at once is a recipe for disaster IMO. There are many here that are very new and many that have great experience. If we just give the information with out building the foundation most won't make it out of the house before the collapse. So, I realize there is frustration for more info and I also realize there are some trying to catch up.
I also realize from reading many threads over the years that they become way off base from the original intent of the thread. This is a discussion thread with the intent to adjust the way most have been trained to look at the market. Not sure if it's working for everyone, but I know a few it has helped anyway...lol.
Thanks for your post and sorry I used it to talk to the masses.
Robonacci com
- #2,167
- Jan 17, 2008 12:05pm Jan 17, 2008 12:05pm
many are confused actually..... early success can be bad.
I am posting these as an affirmation for me and maybe to help someone else.
as always these are IMO and don;t apply to you, unless they do. IMO these might be GREAT fundamentals to make you successful with anything.
Discipline:
1.) test your face off before you go live with repeatable, explainable results 500-1000 backtests should give you a GREAT understanding of how well you will do
2.) solid MM above all no matter what. Prepare for the worst. BUild wealth slow or go broke fast your choice.
3.) test more
4.) trade the trend
5 .) know the major trends you are trading in not just your tf's trend.
6.) Every failure,mistake is a gift to learn from.
7.) keep it as simple as possible, but don't oversimplify.
8.) Do what works for you, no comprende no trade
9.) less trades, better trades = more profit long term
10.) larger time frames, better behaved = "easier" to trade not "better" to trade
11.) always backtest your questions. and answers if you are given them
12.) Garbage in garbage out, you get out what you put in trading can be simple but it takes hard work to get there.
13.) never give up, determination/focus/work is the currency of success
14.) never stop learning and working no matter what.
15.) plan your trade trade your plan. Stick to it. Timing is key. not right don;t trade another will come around. Honest.
16.) keep what works throw away what doesn't.
17.) beer before liquor , never sicker.
Sizz
- #2,169
- Jan 17, 2008 12:22pm Jan 17, 2008 12:22pm
The quest is to find a way to trade that an entire group can trade from without much discretion. It can happen and will happen if I have any say in the matter.
All this feeling around - learning fibs and pulling from the wrong place is ok in my book. It needs to happen. It happened to me and will happen to anyone else that is on a similar quest. But to just lay out all the information at once is a recipe for disaster IMO. There are many here that are very new and many that have great experience. If we just give the information with out building the foundation most won't make it out of the house before the collapse.
Thanks also for recognizing the frustration of some and reassuring that things will continue to progress.
For that, most of us thank you!
- #2,170
- Jan 17, 2008 12:24pm Jan 17, 2008 12:24pm
Some good points to be sure.
The quest is to find a way to trade that an entire group can trade from without much discretion. It can happen and will happen if I have any say in the matter.
All this feeling around - learning fibs and pulling from the wrong place is ok in my book. It needs to happen. It happened to me and will happen to anyone else that is on a similar quest. But to just lay out all the information at once is a recipe for disaster IMO. There are many here that are very new and many that have great experience. If we just give the information with out building the foundation most won't make it out of the house before the collapse. So, I realize there is frustration for more info and I also realize there are some trying to catch up.
I also realize from reading many threads over the years that they become way off base from the original intent of the thread. This is a discussion thread with the intent to adjust the way most have been trained to look at the market. Not sure if it's working for everyone, but I know a few it has helped anyway...lol.
Thanks for your post and sorry I used it to talk to the masses.
My first post here, this is a great thread, I appreciate everything you are trying to achieve for everyone. I believe this is the best way to learn and this thread has helped me a great deal. That said, I'll go on to show you I know nothing!
It seems from your earlier thread (today) , that we should be looking for a break on a higher TF such as monthly or weekly for eg, then move to a lower TF, ie, daily, find a Hi/lo range on that which is breaking at the same level (approx), then move to perhaps the hourly TF and do the same, in effect drilling down to a TF where the expected profit target is less, along with any loss should the trade fail, but with a much higher probablity of success. The entry would be a few pips beyond the main TF break point as you would enter on the break of the smallest TF hi/lo range. Trading only in the same direction as the main TF. Is this what you are suggesting ? It seems to make sense to me, but thats not saying much!
Keep up the good work!
- #2,172
- Jan 17, 2008 12:37pm Jan 17, 2008 12:37pm
Yikes......I knew all those other ones. This new one now explains all the problems I have had in life!
Seriously.....nice list!
liquor before beer, in the clear
also
19.) Grapes before grain you will be in pain.
Sizz
- #2,173
- Jan 17, 2008 12:44pm Jan 17, 2008 12:44pm
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,076 Posts
Thanks for your post and sorry I used it to talk to the masses.
I follow this thread every day and really enjoy your method of promoting self discovery in traders. I'm glad to see that your goal is to reduce the discretionary aspect to a minimum, so I'm glad I asked the question.
- #2,175
- Jan 17, 2008 1:01pm Jan 17, 2008 1:01pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
[quote=seb123;1807646]Skunny,
That said, I'll go on to show you I know nothing!
who really does anyway?
It seems from your earlier thread (today) , that we should be looking for a break on a higher TF such as monthly or weekly for eg, then move to a lower TF, ie, daily, find a Hi/lo range on that which is breaking at the same level (approx), then move to perhaps the hourly TF and do the same, in effect drilling down to a TF where the expected profit target is less, along with any loss should the trade fail, but with a much higher probablity of success. The entry would be a few pips beyond the main TF break point as you would enter on the break of the smallest TF hi/lo range. Trading only in the same direction as the main TF. Is this what you are suggesting ? It seems to make sense to me, but thats not saying much!
Top down anaysis is great...We all try to do this...OK, but here is the challenge, how often is thee such agreement on all timeframes? am i missing something or is it not always the case, excepting super strong trends, that timeframes disagree? This seems to be the riddle, i mean how many of these perfect skunnys (TM) lol can you point out right now? I'm sure Skunny could find a trade anywhere he wanted, but I cannot yet..... I wait for hours on end.... and still to get 10-20 pips... there must be something missing... this is not the whole picture just saying do top down analysis..
otherwise y even bother with fibs just wait for a big monster trend and jump in and take 5 or 10 pips... am i crazy? (don't answer that lol) matter of fact I have 200 indicators that can do that! lol just kidding Skunny! indicators stink of course but i am just trying to make the point.... for what it is worth.... that general vague ideas like look at higher timeframes first is NOT a moley quail..... unless it is more specific..... UNLESS I AM WRONG and deserve a misconduct penalty?? HMMMMMMMMM lol but I agree with the concept just dont see how it is so useful I guess?
Keep up the good work![/quote]
I agree and kudos to all of you.
Sorry if this sounds negative (its not intended to be) but discussion and progress requires us to inquire and question.... and I really dont mean to burst your bubble but.... methinks skunny has a masterplan that is more than just top down analysis then fib for 10 pips...
my 2.381 cents
That said, I'll go on to show you I know nothing!
who really does anyway?
It seems from your earlier thread (today) , that we should be looking for a break on a higher TF such as monthly or weekly for eg, then move to a lower TF, ie, daily, find a Hi/lo range on that which is breaking at the same level (approx), then move to perhaps the hourly TF and do the same, in effect drilling down to a TF where the expected profit target is less, along with any loss should the trade fail, but with a much higher probablity of success. The entry would be a few pips beyond the main TF break point as you would enter on the break of the smallest TF hi/lo range. Trading only in the same direction as the main TF. Is this what you are suggesting ? It seems to make sense to me, but thats not saying much!
Top down anaysis is great...We all try to do this...OK, but here is the challenge, how often is thee such agreement on all timeframes? am i missing something or is it not always the case, excepting super strong trends, that timeframes disagree? This seems to be the riddle, i mean how many of these perfect skunnys (TM) lol can you point out right now? I'm sure Skunny could find a trade anywhere he wanted, but I cannot yet..... I wait for hours on end.... and still to get 10-20 pips... there must be something missing... this is not the whole picture just saying do top down analysis..
otherwise y even bother with fibs just wait for a big monster trend and jump in and take 5 or 10 pips... am i crazy? (don't answer that lol) matter of fact I have 200 indicators that can do that! lol just kidding Skunny! indicators stink of course but i am just trying to make the point.... for what it is worth.... that general vague ideas like look at higher timeframes first is NOT a moley quail..... unless it is more specific..... UNLESS I AM WRONG and deserve a misconduct penalty?? HMMMMMMMMM lol but I agree with the concept just dont see how it is so useful I guess?
Keep up the good work![/quote]
I agree and kudos to all of you.
Sorry if this sounds negative (its not intended to be) but discussion and progress requires us to inquire and question.... and I really dont mean to burst your bubble but.... methinks skunny has a masterplan that is more than just top down analysis then fib for 10 pips...
my 2.381 cents
- #2,178
- Jan 17, 2008 2:34pm Jan 17, 2008 2:34pm
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,090 Posts
I dream, therefore I become.
