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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,481
  • Jan 17, 2008 5:49am Jan 17, 2008 5:49am
Another thing I am looking at is a pullback to the 8 then a move back to retest the 200. MACD and candle formations would have to back this up though, and at the moments it looks like we are some hours away of getting close.
  • #10,482
  • Jan 17, 2008 5:51am Jan 17, 2008 5:51am
E/U went down to the 200, and it looks like it found support there, I have also 50 Fib there. So two possible scenarios here, RB or it will go through 200, retrace to it (probably on shorter timeframe) and then to the 365.
While I'm writting, it forming more like VA, I will wait, still 2 hours for the close of my candle.
  • #10,483
  • Jan 17, 2008 6:26am Jan 17, 2008 6:26am
I considered a long on the close of the last 1H bar, as we got a morning star on the 1H, but the target would be the 8 on the 4H and Im not sure about the R/R and where to place stop. Seems to be a bit too risky to me so I am waiting for move to 8 and possible bounce south from there.
  • #10,484
  • Jan 17, 2008 6:47am Jan 17, 2008 6:47am
My trade today:
I took a long U/J, which was a perfect set-up to me.
Entered in the green arrow pointing in the 1HR chart.

PS: Should've posted this chart few hours ago. Electricity went down and fortunately i had set TP. That was it for the day. Happy pippin'
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj 4HR.jpg Size: 256 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hr UJ.jpg Size: 237 KB
  • #10,485
  • Jan 17, 2008 6:56am Jan 17, 2008 6:56am
I chose to stay out today. Seen a few possibilitys but R:R not so good. Some good trades on the yen pairs this week. Hope everyone earned some pips.
  • #10,486
  • Jan 17, 2008 7:17am Jan 17, 2008 7:17am
Tough charts right now..EU has the 89 in the middle of the 8/21. Yen looks like it's trying to go south.

Red flag on the Bernanke news this morning. I stole some from the Yen last night on the long bear candle down from the 21. Nothing open right now.

Sitting back.
  • #10,487
  • Jan 17, 2008 9:02am Jan 17, 2008 9:02am
Quoting Palmer
Tough charts right now..EU has the 89 in the middle of the 8/21. Yen looks like it's trying to go south.

Red flag on the Bernanke news this morning. I stole some from the Yen last night on the long bear candle down from the 21. Nothing open right now.

Sitting back.
Absolutely agree, staying out too, don't feel the rhythm.
  • #10,488
  • Jan 17, 2008 9:32am Jan 17, 2008 9:32am
Quoting ira
Absolutely agree, staying out too, don't feel the rhythm.
Maybe I can help abit. My short order entry got triggered. I took it because it's on the support. Took a bit of risk because no signal yet formed on the macd, however I saw the candle signal on 30Minutes. This is somehow out of philip's strategy.

Red Brush Line = SL
Blue Brush Line = Entry Point
Green Brush Line = TP which is the 200 MA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: short triggered.jpg Size: 345 KB
  • #10,489
  • Jan 17, 2008 9:47am Jan 17, 2008 9:47am
The EU is indecisive right now...nice little range on the 5min though...but that's another story...Don't say it Ryan...

Back to work, I'll take a peak at things later..
  • #10,490
  • Jan 17, 2008 10:06am Jan 17, 2008 10:06am
Quoting Palmer
The EU is indecisive right now...nice little range on the 5min though...but that's another story...Don't say it Ryan...

Back to work, I'll take a peak at things later..
yeah, doesn't look really good. These tails are unpredictable. I'm setting a BEP in case anything impossible could come and attacked my trade.
  • #10,491
  • Jan 17, 2008 10:07am Jan 17, 2008 10:07am
Palmer or anyone that could be so kind as to answer this, on the 4hr us/cad I am getting a TC signal appearing on the mac but as the price continues to move up the signal disappears, should the signal not stay there as this is a continuation of the trend
Thanks
  • #10,492
  • Jan 17, 2008 10:50am Jan 17, 2008 10:50am
Quoting Palmer
The EU is indecisive right now...nice little range on the 5min though...but that's another story...Don't say it Ryan...

Back to work, I'll take a peak at things later..

Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,493
  • Jan 17, 2008 11:03am Jan 17, 2008 11:03am
my username has been changed to hijackxx instead of hijackxx@hotmai
oh yeah.. thanks merlin.
  • #10,494
  • Jan 17, 2008 11:22am Jan 17, 2008 11:22am
Quoting pipaholic
Palmer or anyone that could be so kind as to answer this, on the 4hr us/cad I am getting a TC signal appearing on the mac but as the price continues to move up the signal disappears, should the signal not stay there as this is a continuation of the trend
Thanks
Macd is a lagging indicator, so before the bar closes, it might show false signal and then soon it disappears when the price turns around. In this case, it was a breakout to the upside and bar closed above the trendline. It would be nice if you enter on 1HR chart earlier.
Maybe Philip would add more explainations?
  • #10,495
  • Jan 17, 2008 11:26am Jan 17, 2008 11:26am
Decided to do some study practice today due to the high number of speeches & general news items. Been looking at E/U, U/J and E/G to expand my horizons a little.

Noticing some divergences on the weekly & daily charts. Strong bearish divergence on E/U weekly, bullish divergence on G/U daily, and strong bullish divergence on the U/J daily & 4hr. I know divergence cannot say for sure when a reversal may happen, & certainly doesn't say that it absolutely will, but how much notice do you take of it?

On the U/J, for example, price is holding in an 8 & 21 sandwich (and is actually continuing down as I write this). But, could the divergence on the 4hr & daily be saying not much further to go down, let's go back up & say hi to the 89 & 200 again, cos we rattled past them before & didn't stop!

We know it's in the rules for price to go back to the 21 after breaking the 89, which it did, but it never revisited the 200. Price would need to retrace beyond the 89 to get back to the 200, which would be a 75% retracement of the total move from the top on 27th Dec. Is this too far, or is the divergence saying it's a strong possibility? What do you pay more attention to - the tails off the 21 suggesting a push back down, or the divergence suggesting a move back up?

Am I making things more complicated for myself by trying to think too far ahead? Am I thinking too much?

Rebecca.
Attached Image
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #10,496
  • Jan 17, 2008 11:27am Jan 17, 2008 11:27am
Quoting pipaholic
Palmer or anyone that could be so kind as to answer this, on the 4hr us/cad I am getting a TC signal appearing on the mac but as the price continues to move up the signal disappears, should the signal not stay there as this is a continuation of the trend
Thanks
The Macd bar you are looking at is the last bar......it is in the process of being drawn ...it will continue to change until that candle closes.....the bar before last bar is the signal bar ....unless you are looking at the Macd exactly when your candle is closing.....then the last bar is the signal but in a minute when the new candle starts you will have the birth of a new last bar and then the next to last bar is the signal that you base your trigger pulling buy/sell decision....but only if the price action/rythym on the chart says its time to do so.............
Here is the cad 4hr and daily...notice the nice signal on the next to last bar. But also i look at the daily.......it also has given a tc and has broken its 200sma......this signal was given when yesterdays candle closed ...so indeed it was time to start looking for a signal on the 4hr.....and you found it.. congratulations!
But to address you question ...the last macd bar in this 4 hr that now says it is 44 pips green....will continue to change for the next 2hours and 40 minutes ....then it will stay as it is.........Pipip.........Jimdandy
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad-daily.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #10,497
  • Jan 17, 2008 11:50am Jan 17, 2008 11:50am
Quoting pipaholic
Palmer or anyone that could be so kind as to answer this, on the 4hr us/cad I am getting a TC signal appearing on the mac but as the price continues to move up the signal disappears, should the signal not stay there as this is a continuation of the trend
Thanks
I've ever got the same problem. Are you using MACD colored V104?
To solve this, I just open the indicator properties and then I click ok without changing any parameter. It should fix the problem.
  • #10,498
  • Jan 17, 2008 12:05pm Jan 17, 2008 12:05pm
I've only used the MACD v102....Thanks Jim
  • #10,499
  • Jan 17, 2008 12:15pm Jan 17, 2008 12:15pm
In response to BagLady (on the USD/JPY)

At this point, in my opinion, price hasn't closed strongly (or even once above) the 21. Price came above the 21 (closed near it), then went back to the 8. Then retested (and broke, but didn't close) above the 21 and now is back around the 8.... Market motion is a little confused, but it could break for it (the 89) or continue the down trend. The 89 is possible, but if and only if it closes strongly above the 21, backed up with emotions (candles). In any case this would be counter trend, (risky). Phil was able to catch the RB off the lower trendline, but at this point (w/o the support of the trendline), I wouldn't touch it...
  • #10,500
  • Jan 17, 2008 12:20pm Jan 17, 2008 12:20pm
To all that replyed, Thanks. I am running v 103 macd, any sujestions?
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