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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,141
  • Jan 16, 2008 8:01pm Jan 16, 2008 8:01pm
Hey All,


There is good reason why one needs to understand market flow and it is very hard to teach by pictures. I've been working on a video presentation from the ground up and it's a lot more work than I thought it would be. I haven't opened a chart for trading since last week.....I take that back, I opened a chart early this morning for a 5mn trade (20 pips) and went back to work...lol.

There is no way for me to completely catch up on the mayhem that has ensued on this place in my absence. It's all good, this is what happens when you get ahead of yourselves though. Most of you are getting comfortable with s/r areas but I see some need more work in that area.

I love the fact that all of you are trying different things, because as you learn more you will say AH HA! Instead of saying ....what? I realize everyone is anxious to get more info, but remember I said back test back test back test? You need to try and trade a month with the correct fib placements, it may only be 5 good fibs or if your really spot on 30-100 fibs.

Maybe trying to get the main fibs in place and correct first. Then retrade the same month and add fibs based on the info you have stored in your brain. You will start to see set ups before they happen.

I miss chatting with all of you, but I can't multi task like my wife and many women can do. The market is the same way, if I'm not focused and in the flow I don't trade.

Figure out what the main trade cycle is doing and fib to it's strong points. (back testing)

I never told anyone to trade live, I know how the mind will screw with you when you have real dollars at risk. You might become more frustrated and mad because you made an error. Worse you may just hang it up and say "I'll never get this stuff". It's the people that fight through that last quote that make it and real money may put some over the edge.

I'm going back to work now. Take care and keep up the good positive banter.
Robonacci com
  • #2,142
  • Jan 16, 2008 8:14pm Jan 16, 2008 8:14pm
Quoting Skunny
Figure out what the main trade cycle is doing and fib to it's strong points. (back testing)
For those keeping a log of Skunnisms, this is one to make note of. Within a main cycle look at STRONG points within it. That had some sort of impact on me when I read it. I'm always trying to figure out where to pull the next fib within some bigger move as it flows around. I don't need to squeeze it in as tight as I can with each high and low, just look for something that seems to make sense with noise after it waiting for something to emerge.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #2,143
  • Jan 16, 2008 8:29pm Jan 16, 2008 8:29pm
Quoting learningtheropes
Hey Bronx,

Are you still planning on posting some charts on this? I'm curious how you went about your series of trades in this situation.

Also, to anyone w/ an opinion: I was walking the FiBS on the UJ here (after the fact, no chance to trade this morning) and was wondering if I was picking the Low a few candles too early (since you can see it broke the 100 line then fully reversed right after), or would you say it was already overextended since the extensions of the longer TF's were already blown out?

Here you go. Its a bit messy, sorry about that. Original long was at 1.9637 (first break above the green line). Even though it wasted a few hours doing essentially nothing up there, I stuck with it. I set up a fib for a potential hedge on a break below 1.9598 with a target of 1.9579 (pink fibs). You might want to consult a neater chart to see why I set up that fib off those 2 candles. So off to work I went and that hedge executed for 16 pips. I followed as much as I could from work with a web based charting program and set up the fibs in blue with a sell at 1.9560 and a target of 1.9529. I know the numbers were different on the other charting program, but it still had the same # of pips in the extension. So I called my broker and set up that order and grabbed another 30 pips on the hedge. There was potential for an add on to the long (not pictured here) for close to another 30 pips, but I wasn't available for that one. Ok, now we see price going back above my original buy. Yay! Things were looking great as it got within 15 pips of my original target marked in green. But price was exhausted from the sharp move up and decided to hit my trailing stop at breakeven +5. The only reason I set up this trailing stop was because I knew I had a busy day at work ahead of me and wasn't sure if I'd be able to watch the market anymore this week. Otherwise I may have grabbed the +50 on the original. But thats fine. Overall I was very satisfied with my patience and trade management. Of course there are quite a few imperfections here as well and I will be studying those when I have time...if that ever happens! I know Skunny is probably not happy for me posting a live trade and I do apologize for that. I've been trading for a long time now and used to be one of those hyperactive daytraders so my ego tells me that I can try out new strategies in live trading...and I'm ok with that (especially because I'm trading in micro lots here), but it may be a bad influence on newbies so I won't post the live ones anymore!

Just a side note before I wrap this one up. Notice my 2nd hedge here (in blue) and how the 1.9673 target on the upside became a temporary resistance when price shot back up
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  • #2,144
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:08pm Jan 16, 2008 9:08pm
Here's my top-down view of the Dollar/Yen pair. Looks like the purple "DAILY" fib range has already broken (daily candle closure below 107.20) to the short side with a projected target of 104.35.

If the currently forming WEEKLY candle also closes below 107.20, then I see a downside target of 100.74, a low not seen since late 2004.

104.35 seems fairly certain considering the direction the yen has been headed since June 07 from the 124.00 area.

What do you guys think?
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  • #2,145
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:20pm Jan 16, 2008 9:20pm
  •  itguy
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: 110..220....Whatever it takes | 39 Posts
Quoting Pipskateer
Here's one for the WISHBOOK....

+1200 pipstaaaaasss worth of Skunniness...


I don't drink so I will blame those two trades on my nasty cold and lack of sleep....yeah, THAT's the ticket!)
Maybe you should put down the "peace" pipe..........
  • #2,146
  • Edited 9:42pm Jan 16, 2008 9:30pm | Edited 9:42pm
Quoting Pipskateer
Here's my top-down view of the Dollar/Yen pair. Looks like the purple "DAILY" fib range has already broken (daily candle closure below 107.20) to the short side with a projected target of 104.35.

If the currently forming WEEKLY candle also closes below 107.20, then I see a downside target of 100.74, a low not seen since late 2004.

104.35 seems fairly certain considering the direction the yen has been headed since June 07 from the 124.00 area.

What do you guys think?
Love it..not confirmed on that 104 but am on 100../ it is the unwind of the carry trade so that make sense to me 100-90 are super strong numbers for UY

All fibs aside I would agree with you based on trend and gasp fundamentals once the UY gets around 100 it is magic time BOJ style though. Or mebbe not.


my charts.. I have on my weekly a confirmed DS of about 100.76 100.8 just like you NICE!!!!!! you can put the boot down! MAYBE wait you are working on close? I am working on pierce it might retrace like a beast but its fate is sealed.

and here is my working trade chart for quick lil moves. I agree with you you agree with me?

Sizz

edit I figured I would also get your opinon on my EU Fib trade chart while I was replying. Let me know what you think and how I messed up hehe

Over all I think the name of the game is "corrective bounces"though
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  • #2,147
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:56pm Jan 16, 2008 9:56pm
Quoting bronxterp
Here you go. Its a bit messy, sorry about that. Original long was at 1.9637 (first break above the green line). Even though it wasted a few hours doing essentially nothing up there, I stuck with it. I set up a fib for a potential hedge on a break below 1.9598 with a target of 1.9579 (pink fibs). You might want to consult a neater chart to see why I set up that fib off those 2 candles. So off to work I went and that hedge executed for 16 pips. I followed as much as I could from work with a web based charting program and set up the fibs in blue with a sell at 1.9560 and a target of 1.9529. I know the numbers were different on the other charting program, but it still had the same # of pips in the extension. So I called my broker and set up that order and grabbed another 30 pips on the hedge. There was potential for an add on to the long (not pictured here) for close to another 30 pips, but I wasn't available for that one. Ok, now we see price going back above my original buy. Yay! Things were looking great as it got within 15 pips of my original target marked in green. But price was exhausted from the sharp move up and decided to hit my trailing stop at breakeven +5. The only reason I set up this trailing stop was because I knew I had a busy day at work ahead of me and wasn't sure if I'd be able to watch the market anymore this week. Otherwise I may have grabbed the +50 on the original. But thats fine. Overall I was very satisfied with my patience and trade management. Of course there are quite a few imperfections here as well and I will be studying those when I have time...if that ever happens! I know Skunny is probably not happy for me posting a live trade and I do apologize for that. I've been trading for a long time now and used to be one of those hyperactive daytraders so my ego tells me that I can try out new strategies in live trading...and I'm ok with that (especially because I'm trading in micro lots here), but it may be a bad influence on newbies so I won't post the live ones anymore!

Just a side note before I wrap this one up. Notice my 2nd hedge here (in blue) and how the 1.9673 target on the upside became a temporary resistance when price shot back up
Hey thanks for the peak into the trade inside the trade......I was able to follow the chart and the notes. Great job

As far as the live trading screen shots, maybe Skunny won't whup up on ya too bad if we just pretend you are demoing LOL!!!!!!!

I know we are like a bunch of kids in front of the candy store window, salivating over what awaits inside. Trying to stick to the basics, but it's hard to completely sit on your hands when the gears in your head keep turning round and round. Guess that's what Vhands is for?!

Have a good night. From a native New Yorker living in Viking country......Go G-men!! Of Course, I got a lot of respect for that Favre fellow, and he just might have that last bit of magic in him to take down the Pats. Can you imagine that story? Grizzly Vet Favre leads a bunch of young'ns on a cinderella season and takes down the 1st ever team to go 16-0 in the reg season on Super Sunday!!! If the old man did not hang up the cleats after that, then I would go down to Mississippi and do it for him!!

Either way, I think NYG vs. The Pack will be a great one to watch!
  • #2,148
  • Jan 16, 2008 11:28pm Jan 16, 2008 11:28pm
Quoting itguy
Maybe you should put down the "peace" pipe..........
Hey wise guy...don't you have a server to reboot or something??
  • #2,149
  • Jan 17, 2008 6:23am Jan 17, 2008 6:23am
Quoting webfoot
ELLIOTT WAVE

BOO! Get outta here!

Wait a minute before you start throwing eggs.
I just finished a mini course on Elliott Wave. And
it's quite an eye opener.
Elliott waves and fibonacci go together like milk and cookies.
Elliot Waves are based on fibonacci numbers. When
you locate your hi lo to set your fib lines, your are actually
encompasing a completed elliott wave.Now the waves work
within the fib s/r. Except now there is a legitamate explanation why the price goes where it does and a hi
predictabilty where it is going besides just s/r.

It's a short 10 lesson course, but it gives you the base of how and why price moves and why it works with fib.

It took me about 3 days to go thru and get the idea.
I am nowhere near complete use of waves, but gave me
a real insight on where to place a fib.

the lessons are free you just have to sign in. Then look for 'free stuff' and click on 10 free wave lessons.
Think it will be of use.
http://www.elliottwave.com/

If fibs, mastered, are 70% accurate, and with waves,mastered, yu could have a very profitable system.
And where skunny is leading - 100%

End of story
Hey Webby,

Elliot Waves, although somewhat similar in idea's thrown around here, are an analytical nightmare for me. Even the best EW traders disagree where they are in a wave(abcd 12345 etc). To get good at EW takes most a very long time/many, many hours. These trades are usually many pips that are accumulated in a roller coaster ride. What I'm trying to get to, is a way to trade consistently and for modest pip totals.

If you could master a perfect trade set up in any given session for a measly 5 pips (sometimes more) that is all you need to trade for a living. This truly isn't about trading all the time. This is about having a life and making money while you live, not living to make money while you miss your life.

I won't tell you what you should learn, but you should know the can of worms you're about to open. You need a big brain and a lot of storage room for EW both of which I don't have.
Robonacci com
  • #2,150
  • Jan 17, 2008 6:27am Jan 17, 2008 6:27am
Quoting itguy
Maybe you should put down the "peace" pipe..........
Piece Pipe? Oh oh, I need to be more involved here if it's come to this Pipskateer.


It could explain a few things though.....
Robonacci com
  • #2,151
  • Jan 17, 2008 6:30am Jan 17, 2008 6:30am
Quoting Pipskateer
Here's one for the WISHBOOK....

+1200 pipstaaaaasss worth of Skunniness...


(also of interest...you'll note two very BAD (read: "STIMPY...you EEEEEEEEDIOT!!!!) losing short trades near the bottom of this run taken just before the nice bounce up off the WEEKLY 138.2 short target. This is why it pays to do a top/down analysis (BEFORE you enter) and use demo accounts (that part I got right, thank the Lord!!) when you are learning something. I don't drink so I will blame those two trades on my nasty cold and lack of sleep....yeah, THAT's the ticket!)

Shame on you, no weekly fib drawn on your chart? I know....piece pipe huh?
Robonacci com
  • #2,152
  • Jan 17, 2008 6:35am Jan 17, 2008 6:35am
Let's say that this is a demo account, OK?

Double top bouncing off the weekly low.
UJ looking good so far!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,153
  • Jan 17, 2008 6:51am Jan 17, 2008 6:51am
look'n good
Robonacci com
  • #2,154
  • Jan 17, 2008 6:59am Jan 17, 2008 6:59am
Quoting learningtheropes
Hey thanks for the peak into the trade inside the trade......I was able to follow the chart and the notes. Great job

As far as the live trading screen shots, maybe Skunny won't whup up on ya too bad if we just pretend you are demoing LOL!!!!!!!

I know we are like a bunch of kids in front of the candy store window, salivating over what awaits inside. Trying to stick to the basics, but it's hard to completely sit on your hands when the gears in your head keep turning round and round. Guess that's what Vhands is for?!

Have a good night. From a native New Yorker living in Viking country......Go G-men!! Of Course, I got a lot of respect for that Favre fellow, and he just might have that last bit of magic in him to take down the Pats. Can you imagine that story? Grizzly Vet Favre leads a bunch of young'ns on a cinderella season and takes down the 1st ever team to go 16-0 in the reg season on Super Sunday!!! If the old man did not hang up the cleats after that, then I would go down to Mississippi and do it for him!!

Either way, I think NYG vs. The Pack will be a great one to watch!
You guys are hilarious.


Did I sound rude? I don't care if you guys trade live or post live shots ( I hope you know).

There are just some I think are trading live without the understanding. I don't want anyone to lose money. The whole point of this thread is getting people to make money. Some are starting to think they are falling behind, but they are not. They are right on track.

I think Bo's joking post might of set back a few. Nice going Bo
Robonacci com
  • #2,155
  • Jan 17, 2008 6:59am Jan 17, 2008 6:59am
Quoting Skunny
If you could master a perfect trade set up in any given session for a measly 5 pips (sometimes more) that is all you need to trade for a living. This truly isn't about trading all the time. This is about having a life and making money while you live, not living to make money while you miss your life.
Thats exactly what I need...
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,156
  • Jan 17, 2008 7:07am Jan 17, 2008 7:07am
Not every little swing is a trade on the time frame you are trading. Remember when I said get your higher time frames worked out correct and then trade the lower time frame in accordance with the higher fibs? I'm not sure I see proof of that going on here all the time. Getting the daily/hourly direction is crucial to know before you trade 15 mn. Weekly and monthly fibs are only less important because of frequency, but pack the most powerful punch to be sure. If you are just trading 15mn you will get burned, I guarantee it.

Just an FYI
Robonacci com
  • #2,157
  • Jan 17, 2008 7:34am Jan 17, 2008 7:34am
Quoting Skunny
Not every little swing is a trade on the time frame you are trading. Remember when I said get your higher time frames worked out correct and then trade the lower time frame in accordance with the higher fibs? I'm not sure I see proof of that going on here all the time. Getting the daily/hourly direction is crucial to know before you trade 15 mn. Weekly and monthly fibs are only less important because of frequency, but pack the most powerful punch to be sure. If you are just trading 15mn you will get burned, I guarantee it.

Just an FYI
This is just a quick example of what I'm trying to say.

The green is monthly sell signal. when moved down to the weekly you can see where you might enter for a good trade (black). Once you get a direction you need to try and utilize that information for a better entry or confirmation. Had the price broke long instead of short you could follow it and wait for the the short signal. You could trade this long (if it broke long) and make pips.....but why? If we went long on a break we would be going against the higher time frame and then we need to watch all the other lower time frames closer for the turn-a-round. You can trade both ways with great success but the less you need to watch the better.
Attached Image
Robonacci com
  • #2,158
  • Jan 17, 2008 8:34am Jan 17, 2008 8:34am
Now that I've remade all of my charts, I've been able to get down to some pacticing of updating fibs and walking them forward in real time.

First I updated my 15m and 5m charts - the 60m is still current from yesterday, and I carried over the smaller set of fibs onto the 15m I then put on the golden set - see the nice retrace into the 04:00 bar.

The golden 15m fibs were carried onto the 5m chart and a new set of yellow fibs put onto the golden retrace. Just look at the action around these yellow 61.8, 50 and 38.2 levels!

Now to give me plenty of practice (he he) in real time, I drilled down to the 1m. I've only put on some of the action as this morning has been rather active - not so much walking the fibs, more like the 100 meterd sprint!

I guess you'll get the idea of how important I believe the 50% level is - and its compatriates the 38 and 62 levels - what a revelation!
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,159
  • Edited 9:04am Jan 17, 2008 9:04am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting DXTrade
Let's say that this is a demo account, OK?

Double top bouncing off the weekly low.
UJ looking good so far!
I got the same trade (real account), but I'm stopped out. Of course I believe it was a valid setup.

IMO market is a little choppy these last days.



regards,
SHR
  • #2,160
  • Jan 17, 2008 10:10am Jan 17, 2008 10:10am
Quoting SHR
I got the same trade (real account), but I'm stopped out. Of course I believe it was a valid setup.

IMO market is a little choppy these last days.



regards,
SHR
Chickened out at break even +1 as well when I saw it was building a pin bar.
But as you say: I still think it was a valid and reasonable trade.
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
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