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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,461
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:21am Jan 16, 2008 10:21am
Quoting unlv_tj
My goodness. My be Mike_DG, the EURUSD is forming what might be the largest 4H bar I have ever seen.
now you will see analysts saying reason is carry trade unwinding, well carry trade unwinding has been going on since begining of the year and at the same time eur was making new highs, it was just 70 pips away from 1.5000 yesterday
  • #10,462
  • Edited 12:38pm Jan 16, 2008 10:33am | Edited 12:38pm
I did not take the EurUsd trade even that it made a triangle with a flat bottom indicating a possible downmove. I liked the Morning star on the Usdjpy and set my stoploss to max 47pips(only what I am prepared to risk max).

Enter long at 106.52
Stoploss 106.05
TP depending on the move as it might be huge. A lot of emotion is built into the EurUsd so I expect a nice move on Usdjpy as well. 100pips+. Will go to BE after 30pips

Edit 1
Set to BE after 30pips.

Edit 2
Took 50% after 50pips and set remainder stoploss to 106.70

Edit 3
Set remander stoploss to 106.90

Edit 4
Set remainder TP at 107.40

Edit 5
Tp on remainder close at 107.40
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,463
  • Jan 16, 2008 11:04am Jan 16, 2008 11:04am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I did not take the EurUsd trade even that it made a triangle with a flat bottom indicating a possible downmove. I liked the Morning star on the Usdjpy and set my stoploss to max 47pips(only what I am prepared to risk max).

Enter long at 106.52
Stoploss 106.05
TP depending on the move as it might be huge. A lot of emotion is built into the EurUsd so I expect a nice move on Usdjpy as well. 100pips+. Will go to BE after 30pips

Edit 1
Set to BE after 30pips.

Edit 2
Took 50% after 50pips and set remainder stoploss to 106.70

Edit 3
Set remander stoploss to 106.90

Edit 4
Set remainder TP at 107.40
You have reached the TP. Good to hear it. Congrats
  • #10,464
  • Jan 16, 2008 11:04am Jan 16, 2008 11:04am
Quoting mike_dg
what happened to our beloved euro
looks like euro longs have to wait again 300 pips for the magical break of 1.5000
why this thread is always quite when the euro gets hit hard
Hi Mike,
read this and you will understand http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=65430

everything looked good. based on the 4h rhythm the price had pulled back to the 21ema and was moving away again. i was watching the 1h to go short early. it was less than half an hour to go until the confirmation candle close. and then it exploded..
  • #10,465
  • Jan 16, 2008 11:30am Jan 16, 2008 11:30am
Quoting Bag Lady
Pleased to oblige. I've copied out my notes for cable from this morning. Just done a daily sheet so you get an idea, and the daily trading strategy. Bear in mind that these are my own observations and they may differ from yours, so don't get too side-tracked by my thoughts. It's just to show you how I do it.

I didn't do a trading plan cos I haven't traded today, kept out so far. But I think the trade plan template is self explanatory anyway?

Hope it helps,
Rebecca,x.
Great templates you got there, Rebecca!
I also look for traditional signals (e.g. head and shoulders) and candlestick formations (e.g. shooting star) on various tfs.
Before I enter a trade, I try to anticipate various different scenarios, and what I'd do in each case. This is actually a generalization of the plain "if it moves in my direction I exit at x.x (target); if it moves against me I close the trade at xx.xx (stop)." Finally, I also play devil's advocate and find reasons not to enter this trade. Sometimes it just shows me the risks may be too high. When I don't enter, usually I regret it - but I often get a [better?] chance to enter at a pullback. That somewhat decreases my risk by shortening the distance to sl [but it might also increase the risk of hitting it (?)].
Thanks again for these awesome templates!
  • #10,466
  • Jan 16, 2008 11:54am Jan 16, 2008 11:54am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I did not take the EurUsd trade even that it made a triangle with a flat bottom indicating a possible downmove. I liked the Morning star on the Usdjpy and set my stoploss to max 47pips(only what I am prepared to risk max).

Enter long at 106.52
Stoploss 106.05
TP depending on the move as it might be huge. A lot of emotion is built into the EurUsd so I expect a nice move on Usdjpy as well. 100pips+. Will go to BE after 30pips

Edit 1
Set to BE after 30pips.

Edit 2
Took 50% after 50pips and set remainder stoploss to 106.70

Edit 3
Set remander stoploss to 106.90

Edit 4
Set remainder TP at 107.40
hi
u didnt set ur stoploss below the previous H4 ,so why u didnt enter after some retracement? that was a big H4 candle and u could wait for retrace and the retracement seems possible after that H1 candle wich i show on chart.how did u know u should not wait for a retracement?
thx
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  • #10,467
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:08pm Jan 16, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting bshadroo
hi
u didnt set ur stoploss below the previous H4 ,so why u didnt enter after some retracement? that was a big H4 candle and u could wait for retrace and the retracement seems possible after that H1 candle wich i show on chart.how did u know u should not wait for a retracement?
thx
He didn't like the risk to be higher than 47 pips
PHILIP:
I liked the Morning star on the Usdjpy and set my stoploss to max 47pips(only what I am prepared to risk max).
  • #10,468
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:31pm Jan 16, 2008 12:31pm
Quoting hijackxx@hotmai
He didn't like the risk to be higher than 47 pips
PHILIP:
I liked the Morning star on the Usdjpy and set my stoploss to max 47pips(only what I am prepared to risk max).
i know ,but there was alot of possibility for a retracement.after a retracement he could enter and set hist stoploss below the prevois H4 with the same 47pips . i want to know how he understood he should not wait for a retrace. actually this question because i wait for a retrace and missed the trade.
  • #10,469
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:57pm Jan 16, 2008 12:57pm
Quoting bshadroo
i know ,but there was alot of possibility for a retracement.after a retracement he could enter and set hist stoploss below the prevois H4 with the same 47pips . i want to know how he understood he should not wait for a retrace. actually this question because i wait for a retrace and missed the trade.
UsdJpy trade today. (See post 10463 for the trade)
The morning star from bottom TL support was my confirmation(MACD agressive turnaround) and the news for the day as well as the emtional triangle on EurUsd made me believe that a nice move was on the cards. If the EurUsd broke that triangle it is going to send the UsdJpy up and I did not expect a retrace with the pull away therefore my decision to enter on candle close. I also could not watch it live therefore my decision. Only got home now and saw my 2nd TP closed. Average gain of +69.
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  • #10,470
  • Jan 16, 2008 1:51pm Jan 16, 2008 1:51pm
Phillip,
That was a nice trade on the USDJPY I was watching it last night thinking a reversal was going to happen but the news got in the way for me and by the time I got back into the office it was too late
  • #10,471
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:01pm Jan 16, 2008 2:01pm
Capture this trade on yen off the 8am range breakout I like the idea of using the MAs as profit taking zones and using macd as well for signaling potential reversals, will keep you guys posted on my future results bagged +90 pips this morning it just moved another 90 or so pips on a TL break around 2:30 EST.

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  • #10,472
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:08pm Jan 16, 2008 2:08pm
Hey guys heres the 4hr chart if this move is for real im eyeing the upper MAs as potential target zones. however im flat at the moment is there any provision for re-entry with this system? IE maybe getting back in on a pullback either off the 4hr or lower timeframe after an up close ? Thanks
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  • #10,473
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:48pm Jan 16, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
UsdJpy trade today. (See post 10463 for the trade)
The morning star from bottom TL support was my confirmation(MACD agressive turnaround) and the news for the day as well as the emtional triangle on EurUsd made me believe that a nice move was on the cards. If the EurUsd broke that triangle it is going to send the UsdJpy up and I did not expect a retrace with the pull away therefore my decision to enter on candle close. I also could not watch it live therefore my decision. Only got home now and saw my 2nd TP closed. Average gain of +69.

Phillip,

Could you please explain the connection between the EurUsd and the UsdJpy?

Thanks
  • #10,474
  • Jan 16, 2008 3:07pm Jan 16, 2008 3:07pm
Quoting smnitro1
Phillip,

Could you please explain the connection between the EurUsd and the UsdJpy?

Thanks
Have a look at this correlation table. http://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tradin...elation/table/
  • #10,475
  • Jan 16, 2008 5:29pm Jan 16, 2008 5:29pm
Quoting juang
mr.palmer ,i want ask u about TC on H1 ,do you mean you wait for price ation
after candle 1 h close.example price action,candle pattern,resis/support,price level,and i ithink more safe tc on 21 ema better than 8 ema on h1,thanks





"Together More Better Than Alone"
juang:

When I said I wait for price action, what I mean is when the 4hr is at the 21 (give or take a few pips) I look for the 1hr to close in the direction of the 4hr trend. I the 4hr is in a bull trend and has come back to the 21, I'll look for the 1hr candle to close up. Then the next 1 hr candle to close up and above that previous candle. That's what I meant by price action = to move in the direction of the 4hr. Also, if there is a resistance area on the 1hr and the 1hr closes above that area, that's a good indication that price may return to the 4hr trend direction. One thing though, I trade the 1hr very aggressively both on an entry and exit standpoint. I may already be in and out of a Tc before that 4hr candle closes if the pips are there.


I think I said Monday that there was some talk about some extra news coming out after the CPI. I'm not sure what exactly happened, I was about to put my fist through the computer at work trying to format Excel charts into Word so I was a little distracted, anyway I hope either people were on the correct side of that or had stops in. I haven't had time to see what caused the move but....either way.

Nadia: did ya take that ride down on the EG??? Hope so...
  • #10,476
  • Jan 16, 2008 6:12pm Jan 16, 2008 6:12pm
Not sure what the significance of the 4650 level is on the EU but look how price settled right at it again...
Attached Image
  • #10,477
  • Jan 16, 2008 7:41pm Jan 16, 2008 7:41pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
UsdJpy trade today. (See post 10463 for the trade)
The morning star from bottom TL support was my confirmation(MACD agressive turnaround) and the news for the day as well as the emtional triangle on EurUsd made me believe that a nice move was on the cards. If the EurUsd broke that triangle it is going to send the UsdJpy up and I did not expect a retrace with the pull away therefore my decision to enter on candle close. I also could not watch it live therefore my decision. Only got home now and saw my 2nd TP closed. Average gain of +69.
Nice run, Phillip!
I also entered the USDJPY when MACD signal confirmed and saw the morning star. But exited too early with +30. Need to learn how to stay in the run as long as possible. I like your way of taking partial profit and let the other for a free run.
Cheers,
Jeremy
NEVER enter a trade JUST because you want to trade.
  • #10,478
  • Edited 2:03am Jan 17, 2008 1:59am | Edited 2:03am
Ok, here is my view of the current situation:
E/U - went through 89 and found support on 200, I'm waiting for RB to form as the rule says - price went through 89, take to the 21. But just be aware of 89 ahead.
G/U - no rhythm, 21 and 8 interlaced - waiting, waiting!
U/J - went to the 21 and bounced of it. I'm waiting for BOZ to go short with the trend. The only thing that bothers me is that price went through 21 and closed above, then came back and now going up to the 21 again (ref. chart). So, there is a chance it can go up. Will wait for price to show it's motion and emotion.
Attached Image
  • #10,479
  • Edited 2:41am Jan 17, 2008 2:22am | Edited 2:41am
The RB forming on the EUR is tricky one. I am waiting for the 1H to close and if it closes below the 200 sma of 1.4631 I might go short - still undecided on this one.

Price broke the 89 and rules say back to 21 but it also broke a trendline support - rules also say pullback to trendline then continue ...

Edit1: Too late it fell.
  • #10,480
  • Jan 17, 2008 5:12am Jan 17, 2008 5:12am
I shorted the E/U yesterday but today I have so far failed to see a trade. First thing this morning I thought it might find support on the 200 and rebound back to the 89 and there was a hammer and doji but then no other signs and apart from that the 1H didnt look so good for the trade. So I held off and now the 200 is being tested as I write.
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