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Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus

  • #1,521
  • Jan 16, 2008 7:27pm Jan 16, 2008 7:27pm
Quoting Bobokus
Correct if it had breached the long fib level of the swing, just like with the larger fibs is a sign of reversal even though small it would be a sign to take profit or loss whichever the case is and start shopping for the next bargain or next opportunity,
As far as percentage of successful times it follows the plan and reaches the target, If so i dont really keep stats or anything but i would guess 60% of the time moreso during trending less so when ranging, (the average of the 2) you just have to learn to switch gears so to speak when the market changes conditions.
When you see price break the low or high and it fails to reach the T1 level its the same sign of a slowdown in momentum and possible reversal. The extentions are the same as the levels inside the 0 and 100 levels they are just the levels projected above and below the the swings measured high and low.Price is just moving from one plane to another.

Thanks!
PipHunter
  • #1,522
  • Jan 16, 2008 7:58pm Jan 16, 2008 7:58pm
One other thing, your using the swing fib to try and gauge whether price will l make it's way the back entirely to the high or low. If it does not, then price would have failed to make a new high or low which would be one the first signs of a larger PB and possible major retracement right? So is there anything more you would stress when someone is trading in this situation?
PipHunter
  • #1,523
  • Jan 16, 2008 8:31pm Jan 16, 2008 8:31pm
Quoting Pip Hunter
One other thing, your using the swing fib to try and gauge whether price will l make it's way the back entirely to the high or low. If it does not, then price would have failed to make a new high or low which would be one the first signs of a larger PB and possible major retracement right? So is there anything more you would stress when someone is trading in this situation?
In a sense yes, I use the swing as a counterpart to the Intraday fib.
In the trade example we used earlier once price broke the short level of the swing the trade is almost golden, If price would have rally'd up through the long fib level of the swing my trade would have been in trouble and its not worth it to find out its correct, its better to take the minimal few pips and live to trade another day.I also use the targets of the swing to give me and idea of where or how far price can travel in referrence to the swings measured area, and if those target levels match up to what I am targeting wether it be the levels of another fib or past the high and low of the Intraday as an indication once the high or low break the Intraday its targets become available. I can go on but it can get pretty deep.
There are just so many different situations to try and explaign that it can become very confusing at first.
The swing is basically a use anywhere on any swing to measure any amount of price, move at any time fib. Then look at its targets to see where that puts price in referrence to the other fib levels and targets.
LOL..............
  • #1,524
  • Jan 16, 2008 8:45pm Jan 16, 2008 8:45pm
Quoting Bobokus
In a sense yes, I use the swing as a counterpart to the Intraday fib.
In the trade example we used earlier once price broke the short level of the swing the trade is almost golden, If price would have rally'd up through the long fib level of the swing my trade would have been in trouble and its not worth it to find out its correct, its better to take the minimal few pips and live to trade another day.I also use the targets of the swing to give me and idea of where or how far price can travel in referrence to the swings measured area, and if those target levels match up to what I am targeting wether it be the levels of another fib or past the high and low of the Intraday as an indication once the high or low break the Intraday its targets become available. I can go on but it can get pretty deep.
There are just so many different situations to try and explaign that it can become very confusing at first.
The swing is basically a use anywhere on any swing to measure any amount of price, move at any time fib. Then look at its targets to see where that puts price in referrence to the other fib levels and targets.
LOL..............
I think I get it Bo!
PipHunter
  • #1,525
  • Jan 16, 2008 8:47pm Jan 16, 2008 8:47pm
Quoting Pip Hunter
I think I get it Bo!

LOL
  • #1,526
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:00pm Jan 16, 2008 9:00pm
Quoting Pip Hunter
I think I get it Bo!
Sorry Ive already had a few drinks and ive got, system of a down blasting in my headset.
  • #1,527
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:08pm Jan 16, 2008 9:08pm
Quoting PiPr Pro
IF this holds I will take the short for a breakout from 9640 scalp to 1.9539. The breakout from the internal fibs has to hold first. I'll be curious to see how Bo plays this one (if at all)
possible trendline break
P.S. markets are too slow tonight so I'm posting boring stuff to stay awake - haha
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu fibs 1_16_08_3.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #1,528
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:23pm Jan 16, 2008 9:23pm
Quoting PiPr Pro
possible trendline break
I wouldnt trust a short term trendline on asian session candles even though the volitility has been good here lately...usually too much sideways movement
  • #1,529
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:36pm Jan 16, 2008 9:36pm
Quoting PiPr Pro
possible trendline break
P.S. markets are too slow tonight so I'm posting boring stuff to stay awake - haha
Is that crickets i hear
  • #1,530
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:46pm Jan 16, 2008 9:46pm
Here is a template with all the fibs in place if anyone wants it setup for the london session 011608.Zoom outable for the other fibs on it. LOL, outable
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp0116b.gif Size: 27 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl gbp011608.tpl   11 KB | 503 downloads
  • #1,531
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:18pm Jan 16, 2008 10:18pm
Bo thanks for you charts...can you do me a favor that would really help me out...would you mind telling me what particular candle and aproximate price when you entered on your charts...or in the case of the trade you missed where you would have entered on the first trade missed...I would really help me out to understand exactly where you entered the trades...or would have entered the trade..I just want to make sure

thanks

Greg D


Quoting Bobokus
I would more have been looking to sell a rally and it happened just a little early and i was pre-occupied and missed it.I was looking to sell off the last swing of the yesterday if it failed before reaching the the long fib, it ralley'd to the pivot and failed there that was the short entry for me, which is pretty aggressive kinda.. like what i mentioned in Skunny's thread last night I posted this as I was seeing it late. The next step is to start trailing with a swing fib and make sure price does not breach its long level and go against you... if it had i would have closed it. It didnt so I would have held it. the target would have been a few pips shy of the swings T1 and also previous support around 1.9540. Woulda been a good one if I had been paying attention.Another opportunity arrises after the news event this morning when the high of the swing posted was broken, I wouldnt have entered off the levels since the news event scambeling was still going on But I did take the high break on the next candle opening and ride it to the T1 of that.
  • #1,532
  • Jan 17, 2008 1:52am Jan 17, 2008 1:52am
Hi Bo,

the reason why your fib missed the target with some pips is that you have started your fib from the previous fib cycle (the last bar of it). So the measure is actually a combination of two fib cycles, which produces slightly false output. If you start the fib from next bar, the target will be met to the pip.

Studied fibs a couple of days now and came to conclusion that it is important to identify fib cycles. If you are able to do that it gives you very accurate results.

Thanks for a nice thread.

R

Quoting Bobokus
3rd chart
  • #1,533
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:08am Jan 17, 2008 3:08am
Anyone else in this scary long? I was very reluctant to trade all that volatility I saw forming even in early London, and I see all kinds of red news for later today but my chosen swing was outside where the chaos was forming so I took the trade. Ah now it's starting to collapse on me....let's see what happens.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,534
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:19am Jan 17, 2008 3:19am
Quoting Thexder
Anyone else in this scary long? I was very reluctant to trade all that volatility I saw forming even in early London, and I see all kinds of red news for later today but my chosen swing was outside where the chaos was forming so I took the trade. Ah now it's starting to collapse on me....let's see what happens.
I took the long trade, but only in my demo account,
entry at 1.9655, close 50% at 1.9671 and set the other 50% to breakeven,
then i was stopped at 1.9655.

I did not have confidence in how to trade with swing fibs yet,
do you trade with swing fibs?
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #1,535
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:23am Jan 17, 2008 3:23am
Quoting dhalsim
do you trade with swing fibs?

See my journal http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=59968 to see lately what I've been trading like, pages 3 to 5 I think encompass it.

I went long at 1.653 and am still in.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,536
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:35am Jan 17, 2008 3:35am
Quoting Thexder
See my journal http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=59968 to see lately what I've been trading like, pages 3 to 5 I think encompass it.

I went long at 1.653 and am still in.
Great!
my spread for GBPUSD is 5,
I think it is too large.

you really did a great job,
I will read through your thread and then maybe i'll ask some questions.
Thanks.
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #1,537
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:39am Jan 17, 2008 3:39am
My spread is 5 too. I've been with 2 brokers and both had the same spread on everything.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,538
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:39am Jan 17, 2008 3:39am
Quoting Thexder
See my journal http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=59968 to see lately what I've been trading like, pages 3 to 5 I think encompass it.

I went long at 1.653 and am still in.
I didn't take this trade personally because of the close of the 17:00 candle of yesterday below the short fib but it looks to be working out for you!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: break.JPG Size: 50 KB
Shootist - Have Pip Shooters Will Travel
  • #1,539
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:43am Jan 17, 2008 3:43am
Quoting Thexder
My spread is 5 too. I've been with 2 brokers and both had the same spread on everything.
Take a look at I B
  • #1,540
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:49am Jan 17, 2008 3:49am
Quoting Shootist
I didn't take this trade personally because of the close of the 17:00 candle of yesterday below the short fib but it looks to be working out for you!!
Based on the candles leaning mostly to the intraday short side as you pointed out, Bo would call this one a scalp swing long, which is how I got myself into this one and now I'm just seeing what happens. I thought I was going to be knocked out for break even at first.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
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