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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #3,041
  • Jan 17, 2008 2:50am Jan 17, 2008 2:50am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
This is some crazy shizznit, CHF unloading , Euro gaining here losing there, Dollar going every direction, yen is losing. WTF??? Absolutely no correlation.

"Trying to forecast the major currencies is like trying to forecast the outcome of a coin toss"- Alan Greenspan


Where is Bullrock when we need him?
LOL

Euro is continuing yesterday, on its own problems. There is a big time support at 1.4458, the 100 EMA in the daily. I think this is the target if 4589 goes. I got in 4639, but already locked the SL at BE.

The rest is all about carry trades redemption. I think Europe is not wasting time as to get to Bernanke with a fat cushion below. You never know what he is going to say or do. Or how the market is going to hear and do
  • #3,042
  • Jan 17, 2008 2:53am Jan 17, 2008 2:53am
Quoting cesarnc
LOL

Euro is continuing yesterday, on its own problems. There is a big time support at 1.4458, the 100 EMA in the daily. I think this is the target if 4589 goes. I got in 4639, but already locked the SL at BE.

The rest is all about carry trades redemption. I think Europe is not wasting time as to get to Bernanke with a fat cushion below. You never know what he is going to say or do. Or how the market is going to hear and do
Yep they want to lock in profit before Bernanke starts to fuck it all up
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #3,043
  • Jan 17, 2008 2:56am Jan 17, 2008 2:56am
Some crazy shit going on with cable.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #3,044
  • Jan 17, 2008 2:56am Jan 17, 2008 2:56am
geppy heading for 50% retracement around 217.50 IMO.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #3,045
  • Jan 17, 2008 2:59am Jan 17, 2008 2:59am
Quoting cgldsmth
geppy heading for 50% retracement around 217.50 IMO.
Agreed
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #3,046
  • Jan 17, 2008 2:59am Jan 17, 2008 2:59am
Quoting DutchTrader
Yep they want to lock in profit before Bernanke starts to fuck it all up
My sentiments exactly........

HOLLA
  • #3,047
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:06am Jan 17, 2008 3:06am
Quoting DutchTrader
Agreed
aGREED

Just hope UJ farts a TOMAHAWK at 108
  • #3,048
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:06am Jan 17, 2008 3:06am
My analysis
Attached Image
Just Trade It
  • #3,049
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:21am Jan 17, 2008 3:21am
Previous session overview

On Wednesday, the dollar strengthened considerably against the euro and the yen as investors reduced risk positions amidst a decline in global oil prices and signs that euro zone economic growth is slowing.

The euro is little changed against the dollar Thursday, after giving up earlier gains amid fresh rumors of selling of the pair by an Asian central bank.

European Central Bank council member Yves Mersch said the ECB may revise down its 2% growth forecast for this year.

The dollar also showed little reaction from data of the Treasury Department.

USD/JPY rises as hedge funds, Japan institutional investors buy reacting to rising Japan stock prices.

British pound ended the US trading session flat against the US dollar. UK jobless claims dropped more than expected in December while earnings including bonuses held steady.

The December consumer price index revealed buoyant inflation conditions, at 0.3% m/m and 4.1% y/y. The excluding food and energy figure was unchanged at 2.4% y/y.

The Australian dollar weakened as oil prices dwindled below $90 a barrel and gold prices came off their recent highs slightly.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #3,050
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:26am Jan 17, 2008 3:26am
Today, we are expecting the ECB's monthly report and the Eurozone Trade Balance. None of these numbers should be particularly market moving.

Trade Balance data as well as comments from Trichet and Almunia in Cyprus will prove key to the Euro in Thursday's session of trading.

A heavy data day is expected from the US tonight as Housing Starts, Philly Fed and Fed reserve Bernanke, Fischer and Lockhart are scheduled to discuss the economic outlook.

Also important events today: Housing Starts, Building Permits & Jobless Claims, USD.

Housing Starts Dec (Expected 1150K Previous 1187K) and Building Permits (Expected1140K Previous 1162K).

The AUD looks set to fall now Australian consumer confidence is declining, global growth expectations are being slashed and even Japanese interest in Aussie assets is on the wane.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #3,051
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:47am Jan 17, 2008 3:47am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Man you missed alot of pips. ALOT of pips, I was scaling in every 5 min. I dont need to trade for the rest of the month. But I'm a greedy bastard, see you tomorrow.


I was just going to say the same - yesterday was VERY good to me!
I reached my goal for the month... gosh, what should I do now?
Oh, I know... raise my monthly goal?
Cable is my sugardaddy
  • #3,052
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:56am Jan 17, 2008 3:56am
Quoting bohogirl


I was just going to say the same - yesterday was VERY good to me!
I reached my goal for the month... gosh, what should I do now?
Oh, I know... raise my monthly goal?

Greed. It's a b*tch. I am only trading very "tiny" small positions as I have learned it's hard to make your goals and it's even harder to keep them.
So many times I made my goals early then gave them away as I went for more.

So, where would you like to have the wedding? I was thinking we could get married by Elvis in Vegas, but I dont know if your that kind of girl, So another option would be in Reno by Johnny Cash?
What would you like?
Just Trade It
  • #3,053
  • Jan 17, 2008 4:04am Jan 17, 2008 4:04am
The New York Times: Bernanke Is Said to Support Stimulus Measures

By EDMUND L. ANDREWS and DAVID M. HERSZENHORN
WASHINGTON — Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has told lawmakers that he can support tax cuts or spending measures to stimulate the economy, even if they increase the budget deficit, provided the measures are quick and temporary.

Mr. Bernanke is to testify before the House Budget Committee Thursday. Democratic lawmakers said he had told them that he would not comment on proposals to link a stimulus package with a permanent extension of President Bush’s tax cuts. That is expected to disappoint Republicans who favor such a link.

Faced with growing evidence that the economy is slipping into a recession, Congressional Democrats and President Bush are trying to come up with a package that would put more money in Americans’ hands within the next few months.

The Fed’s willingness to give a nod to fiscal stimulus is important. Many lawmakers will not support action without the chairman’s blessing, and the double dose of stimulus that the Fed and Congress are considering must be carefully calibrated.
I
f Mr. Bernanke opposed Congressional action on the ground that spending increases and tax cuts would increase the budget deficit, the Fed might restrain its own effort to stimulate the economy with lower interest rates.

Mr. Bernanke wants to keep the Fed out of political jockeying, but he is also wary of endorsing measures that could aggravate the government’s long-term fiscal problems. Unlike his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, Mr. Bernanke has generally refused to insert himself into the particulars of partisan battles over specific tax and spending proposals. Mr. Greenspan was often criticized for endorsing Mr. Bush’s tax cuts of 2001, which contributed to ballooning deficits for several years.

Democratic lawmakers who have spoken with Mr. Bernanke said he would not endorse any specific plan but supported the general idea of propping up consumer spending and investment with temporary tax or spending measures.

Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York and chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, said Mr. Bernanke was “generally supportive” of a stimulus package as long as it was well conceived. “He said that while he wasn’t going to endorse a specific plan, if an economic stimulus package was properly designed and enacted so that it enters the economy quickly, it could have a very positive effect,” Mr. Schumer said.

Mr. Bernanke acknowledged last week that economic conditions had worsened and strongly suggested that the Federal Reserve would reduce the benchmark interest rate at the meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee on Jan. 30. On Wall Street, investors are betting that the central bank will reduce overnight lending rates to 3.75 percent from 4.25 percent.
On Wednesday, the central bank released its so-called beige book, a compilation of anecdotal reports from the Fed’s 12 regional banks, and it stated that economic growth slowed noticeably in November and December.

The report said that holiday-season retail sales were “generally disappointing.” Seven of the 12 Fed districts reported a “slight increase in economic activity,” two described conditions as “mixed” and three reported slowdowns.

The Fed chairman met privately on Monday with the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi of California. In that meeting, according to Congressional officials, Mr. Bernanke neither urged Congress to enact an emergency measure nor signaled any opposition.

While declining to discuss details, Ms. Pelosi said, “I am encouraged by my conversations with the administration and the Fed, which is separate and independent, that there is a sense of urgency, that there is a need for a stimulus package and we should find our common ground as soon as possible.”

The Fed chairman was said by others to have echoed the concept if not the precise words of economists like Lawrence H. Summers, Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, who have called for any plan to be “timely, targeted and temporary.”

Democratic lawmakers generally favor measures aimed at low- and middle-income families, arguing they need the extra money most acutely and are most likely to spend it immediately. Though Democrats are weighing a variety of measures, a consensus appears to be building that the package should cost about $100 billion.

Among the proposals circulating among Democrats are one-time tax rebates to almost all workers; temporary increases in unemployment benefits, food stamps and Medicaid payments; and federal grants to state and local governments. Some Democrats are pushing for increased spending on public infrastructure like highways and bridges, but aides to Ms. Pelosi said that issue might be dealt with separately to avoid slowing down any stimulus package.

Administration officials and many Republican lawmakers were open to tax rebates, but many want to include temporary business tax breaks, like an investment tax credit or permanent reductions in the corporate rate.
The House Democratic and Republican leaders met Wednesday and emerged promising to work together on a stimulus plan. Congressional leaders are to meet with Mr. Bush next Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Michael O. Leavitt, the secretary of health and human services, rejected a proposal favored by many Democrats to have the federal government pay a larger share of the cost of Medicaid, the health program for low-income people that is financed jointly with the states.
He said that increasing the federal share of Medicaid could be a means of increasing federal control over health care, a change opposed by the White House.

“I don’t think that Medicare and Medicaid were intended as jobs programs,” Mr. Leavitt said. “They were intended to help those with serious economic disadvantages.”

One precedent for this proposal was the 2003 tax cut law, which provided $20 billion in “temporary fiscal relief” to states. Half of the money was to avert cuts in Medicaid programs.

Mr. Bush and his advisers have been pushing for years to make his 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent. Many economists argue that making the tax cuts permanent would have no immediate effect on the economy, because they are not scheduled to expire until the end of 2010. But supporters say the move could provide a short-term lift because investors would have greater certainty about tax policy in the future.

Mr. Bernanke, who was a Fed governor and then chairman of Mr. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers before becoming Fed chairman, is expected to rebuff efforts by Republicans or Democrats to draw him into that battle. Since becoming Fed chairman in February 2006, Mr. Bernanke has generally refused to comment on specific tax and spending proposals unless they had a direct bearing on the overall economy.

“If he gets peppered on these issues, my guess is that he will duck,” said Brian A. Bethune, an economist at Global Insight, an economic forecasting firm.

Mr. Bernanke is expected to warn lawmakers Thursday that the nation faces severe budget problems in the decades ahead as more than 70 million baby boomers reach retirement age.

He has long made it clear that there are times when it makes sense for the federal government to run higher deficits to head off an economic downturn.

“In the short run, fiscal policy makers may have important and legitimate reasons to depart from budget balance, sometimes even substantially,” Mr. Bernanke said in a speech in 2003, when he was a Fed governor. Those reasons, he continued, could include a national emergency or “a stimulus package to assist economic recovery.”
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #3,054
  • Jan 17, 2008 4:06am Jan 17, 2008 4:06am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Greed. It's a b*tch. I am only trading very "tiny" small positions as I have learned it's hard to make your goals and it's even harder to keep them.
So many times I made my goals early then gave them away as I went for more.

So, where would you like to have the wedding? I was thinking we could get married by Elvis in Vegas, but I dont know if your that kind of girl, So another option would be in Reno by Johnny Cash?
What would you like?
I think Vegas is better - already done Reno twice

On that note... I don't think we'll ever argue about trading 'styles' - I, too, am only trading very 'tiny' small positions, as I've learned the same thing by giving away my profits to the bi*ch!!! And I tighten my money management as well

That said...

The Maid asked for a raise.



The lady of the house was very upset about this and asked: "Now Maria, why do you want an increase?"



Maria: "Well Madam, there are three reasons why I want an increase. The first is that I iron better than you."



Lady of the house: "Who said you iron better than me?"



Maria: "The Master said so."



Lady of the house: "Oh."



Maria: "The second reason is that I am a better cook than you."



Lady of the house: "Nonsense, who said you were a better cook than I am?"



Maria: "The Master did."



Lady of the house: "Oh."



Maria: "My third reason is that I am a better lover than you."



Lady of the house (very upset now): "Did the Master say so as well?"



Maria: "No Madam, the gardener did."
Cable is my sugardaddy
  • #3,055
  • Jan 17, 2008 4:08am Jan 17, 2008 4:08am
@boho girl

BTW Risk aversion's upon us, Merrillys coming out with earnings. Batten the hatches!!
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #3,056
  • Jan 17, 2008 4:12am Jan 17, 2008 4:12am
Quoting DutchTrader
@boho girl

BTW Risk aversion's upon us, Merrillys coming out with earnings. Batten the hatches!!
I don't know why they call it "earnings" yet
  • #3,057
  • Jan 17, 2008 4:14am Jan 17, 2008 4:14am
Quoting cesarnc
I don't know why they call it "earnings" yet
They should say "releases losses", or "releases anticipated losses" or better yet "Ladies, Gentleman, we have no fucking clue how much we've lost"
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #3,058
  • Jan 17, 2008 4:16am Jan 17, 2008 4:16am
Quoting DutchTrader
They should say "releases losses", or "releases anticipated losses" or better yet "Ladies, Gentleman, we have no fucking clue how much we've lost"
I suggest "screwup sizing"
  • #3,059
  • Jan 17, 2008 4:17am Jan 17, 2008 4:17am
Quoting bohogirl

The Maid asked for a raise.


Tell her its raising right now, and meet me in the gym room. We're about to have a workout session.
Just Trade It
  • #3,060
  • Jan 17, 2008 4:23am Jan 17, 2008 4:23am
Merrill Lynch's subprime-related writedown could be as high as $12 billion to $15 billion when the investment bank reports earnings before the bell** Thursday, according to people familiar with the situation.

If that happens, Merrill's collateralized debt obligations (CDOs)/subprime exposures should decline by 50 percent to 70 percent in total with this writedown.


In addition, the company company has already started laying off scores of executives, mostly in its fixed-income business, CNBC has learned.

*We're having a nervous DING DING DING today.
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