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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,101
  • Jan 15, 2008 11:51pm Jan 15, 2008 11:51pm
Quoting Bobokus
...................More a stop and reverse than a stoploss.
To me a stoploss is used to protect profit once in a trade.
I guess the way I look at it is I will decide my own demise not a set stoploss
understood on the stop and reverse
along the line of profit protection - can you elaborate?
  • #2,102
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:01am Jan 16, 2008 12:01am
Quoting PiPr Pro
understood on the stop and reverse
along the line of profit protection - can you elaborate?
Sure, If i place a stoploss to protect profit it is usually to break even once the high or low of the range Im trading is broken, once broken i will move it to just below the high or above the low and let it run to the target or I see it isnt going to make it and ill close them manually.
  • #2,103
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:02am Jan 16, 2008 12:02am
Quoting Bobokus
To me I would not have taken a long position there,It just completed the take profit point from the bounce it had just made from the previous days fib levels.

I agree, i wouldn't have taken the long position because the candle did not close on the other side of that fib level.

Now one could say that in a smaller time frame like 5 minutes or so that a candle would of closed beyond the fib level...do you take the long position then?

I wouldn't because the 1 hour candle didn't close. And thats the time frame I'm working in.

I think were all learning that ultimately the price will reach the take profit level...the question is when?...and with how much draw down.?

Charlie
  • #2,104
  • Edited 12:17am Jan 16, 2008 12:12am | Edited 12:17am
Quoting PiPr Pro
understood on the stop and reverse
along the line of profit protection - can you elaborate?
Look at cable right now, I missed it but,I was looking to enter short at 1.9630/1.9640 and so far I would not have a stoploss in place until 1.9566 gets broken, if it does get broken im at break even and letting in run until 1.9540.Now to watch to see if I need to close it or let it continue i would pull a swing to the low of the previous Low candle (2200) and what i see is the levels are holding tellling me its too early to get out with what ive got at 1.9625 or so. And look to reverse
  • #2,105
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:15am Jan 16, 2008 12:15am
Quoting Charlie
I agree, i wouldn't have taken the long position because the candle did not close on the other side of that fib level.

Now one could say that in a smaller time frame like 5 minutes or so that a candle would of closed beyond the fib level...do you take the long position then?

I wouldn't because the 1 hour candle didn't close. And thats the time frame I'm working in.

I think were all learning that ultimately the price will reach the take profit level...the question is when?...and with how much draw down.?

Charlie
Nope I wouldnt touch anything less than a 1 hour chart. Im a gambler but not a dumb one.
  • #2,106
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:17am Jan 16, 2008 12:17am
i wanted to short at 110.80 area last night when the pair was well kept below the privous day's low at NY session but did not take the trade.As the pair already breach privous days' low at London session so the target shall be 108.85 area. For current movement from 10950-10780,not sure what's the cycle it's in now

Quoting DXTrade
LOL, no idea.
Here is how I fibed the new move, but won't use it for trading as it didn't retrace to 38.2 yet. Although it might work out fine going short from here I'm just not too comfortable with it due to the lack of retracement... and its on the 162 extension of the weekly fib. So this might be a big support.
  • #2,107
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:20am Jan 16, 2008 12:20am
Quoting moneybookers
i wanted to short at 110.80 area last night when the pair was well kept below the privous day's low at NY session but did not take the trade.As the pair already breach privous days' low at London session so the target shall be 108.85 area. For current movement from 10950-10780,not sure what's the cycle it's in now
yep dont jump on one if its too late, let it go and wait for the next one it will come around
  • #2,108
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:23am Jan 16, 2008 12:23am
Quoting bronxterp
Very nice hitman! UJ is usually quite orderly. I like it a lot!

Daily chart edging closer to its target price
Whew-eee!! Hard to catch up on this thread when you finally find it over 1000 posts deep!! My eyes are bleeding, as I've read and re-read and tested things along the way, but I looks like I will be post 21XX. As I told Skunny in an email, I gave up my last indicator about 5 months ago and have been focused soley on SR and PA for about 6-8 months, and it's the only way to fly!!

I took the attached H1 trade this evening on the UJ. Incredible how you can find a beautiful trade in a smaller range within the move towards the daily's 138....

Happy Trading,
Jim
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,109
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:31am Jan 16, 2008 12:31am
hey bo while u r here thought i'd pick your brain if thats ok.... skunny wrote once to llok at weekly then daily and then you can trade of of hourly.... can you elaborate on that for us? would you fib the latest weekly and daily candle and then get an idea of where price may go? is this the idea? and how exactly should we go about this? IS there an example for toights session that you are looking at?

just trying to make rules for myself and keep confusing myself fibbing everyting... thanks in advance

d
  • #2,110
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:43am Jan 16, 2008 12:43am
Quoting dagoods
hey bo while u r here thought i'd pick your brain if thats ok.... skunny wrote once to llok at weekly then daily and then you can trade of of hourly.... can you elaborate on that for us? would you fib the latest weekly and daily candle and then get an idea of where price may go? is this the idea? and how exactly should we go about this? IS there an example for toights session that you are looking at?

just trying to make rules for myself and keep confusing myself fibbing everyting... thanks in advance

d
Yes, in that repect we are exactly the same.Basically what your doing when applying a fib on the Monthly and Weekly single candles your tagging the fib to measure a set period of time then changing your chart to a 1 hour timeframe to trade within those fib levels. The daily high and low is in the same respect as the fib measuring a set period of time. Placing the fib tool on swings are freehanding them to measure an amount of price movement free from any set period of time, tagged to price only. Your looking at how price reacts to those levels as price encounters them, (Price action),the extensions of the fib tool tell you that once its high or low is broken price has the potential to move this far...138.2 of its range.
Does that help any ?
  • #2,111
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:45am Jan 16, 2008 12:45am
Past my bedtime I gotta go...later
  • #2,112
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:52am Jan 16, 2008 12:52am
Quoting Bobokus
Yes, in that repect we are exactly the same.Basically what your doing when applying a fib on the Monthly and Weekly single candles your tagging the fib to measure a set period of time then changing your chart to a 1 hour timeframe to trade within those fib levels. The daily high and low is in the same respect as the fib measuring a set period of time. Placing the fib tool on swings are freehanding them to measure an amount of price movement free from any set period of time, tagged to price only. Your looking at how price reacts to those levels as price encounters them, (Price action),the extensions of the fib tool tell you that once its high or low is broken price has the potential to move this far...138.2 of its range.
Does that help any ?
yes it does thanks bo... so if price breaks a daily ext then u can just let it run to the daily 138? and weekly and like that and if not...you trade the swings in betwen off of hourly i gather..... ok, so lately on gj we had to move to wekly daily and monthly, is that how u see it? and then is there anyway to know ehen how much it will retrace? i mean when u are looking at gj for example it has monthly targets weekly targets daily targets hourly targets 138's blown through all over the place etc..... better to just wait for a retrace then on something like that? or is there rules for retarcing... in other words, trading from 100 to 138 is great, dont get me wong, but can we make high probability trades besides this one? how would we do that? thanks bo, truly appreciate what you and skunny are doing here
  • #2,113
  • Jan 16, 2008 1:00am Jan 16, 2008 1:00am
Quoting Bobokus
Yes, in that repect we are exactly the same.Basically what your doing when applying a fib on the Monthly and Weekly single candles your tagging the fib to measure a set period of time then changing your chart to a 1 hour timeframe to trade within those fib levels. The daily high and low is in the same respect as the fib measuring a set period of time. Placing the fib tool on swings are freehanding them to measure an amount of price movement free from any set period of time, tagged to price only. Your looking at how price reacts to those levels as price encounters them, (Price action),the extensions of the fib tool tell you that once its high or low is broken price has the potential to move this far...138.2 of its range.
Does that help any ?
Thanks Bo
trading naked.......
  • #2,114
  • Jan 16, 2008 1:00am Jan 16, 2008 1:00am
Quoting DXTrade
LOL, no idea.
Here is how I fibed the new move, but won't use it for trading as it didn't retrace to 38.2 yet. Although it might work out fine going short from here I'm just not too comfortable with it due to the lack of retracement... and its on the 162 extension of the weekly fib. So this might be a big support.
As explained in the quote I didn't took this one.
But it worked out fine anyway in beauty!

Well... Fibs are amazing!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 14 KB
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,115
  • Jan 16, 2008 3:36am Jan 16, 2008 3:36am
aud/usd i fibbed a wekly and daily first, notcied we wer near the 0 level.... lookin g for possible penetration zoomed down to 15 min..and there was a penetration the targets wer below the 1 hour 0 and the daily 0


you be the judge... however so far there is only penetration on daily.... but this is awesome when setups like this happen!

and hopefully my data feed from alpari is all good but..... aud/usd short as per chart.... may be beautiful thing... on the other hand... my feed may not be correct OR we may only get penetration here and not breach....

i post this for learning only..... for commentary and helping the forum devise a moley quail


so how would u all trade this? and what do u all do when we dont have perfect set-ups? stay out?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,116
  • Edited 7:35am Jan 16, 2008 6:15am | Edited 7:35am
I've been thinking overnight and I feel that I am wrong to continue - at this time - posting charts etc with Gann and other timing lines. Firstly, I am not certain that I am on the best track and secondly Skunny asked us to concentrate on the fibs - so that's what I'll do - not that I'm looking for brownie points, just dont want to go off at a tangent.

That - and Mahenwara's post prompted me to revisit my higher TF GJ charts

The 4 hr had a 138 extension at 206.93

The daily a 138 extn at 207.20 and the weekly a 61.8% retrace at 206.66.....mm 666....

Thats a range of 54 pips from data going back to October 2003! I guess you might say that GJ is at an important level!

Working off the 60m, 15m and 5m as Skunny has suggested, I think that we can now start to see the value of having 2 sets of fibs up on each chart and how the moves on the lower TFs fit into the larger picture on the higher TFs.

I've also found the work that Bobokus is doing in his thread very useful and I especially like the way he uses the 38, 50 and 62 levels - I can see how I may adapt that into my own (shush when I mention the word) trading.

We all have different ideas about how we personally wish to use the info that we are learning - and there is no best way - just the one that works for us, our own Moley Quail.

Thanks to Skunny and Bobokus for your time and hard work in sharing with us - and thanks for all who post here in such a positive manner - a refreshing change!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,117
  • Jan 16, 2008 7:33am Jan 16, 2008 7:33am
Yeah, islander, I certainly second that motion! My experience before discovering JohnW and Skunny has been very miserable--for many years--at least I didn't lose my family--but it came close. This new found hope is great.
  • #2,118
  • Jan 16, 2008 8:47am Jan 16, 2008 8:47am
Whilst many stay with the higher TFs, I dont apologise for showing these 1 min charts. Knowing that we had hit important support this morning, it was easy to look for the bounce, but what was so good was to see the retraces on this very short TF giving excellent entries - and a great move.

With GU and UJ rallying together, the move was going to be strong and I expected the 138 to be exceeded, so the 162 at the 210 level was the one to go for - then it blew thru and went for the 50 instead. What a move.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,119
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:21am Jan 16, 2008 9:21am
Quoting sizzler
OH man I didn;t bring my gloves!!!
Rodger that. I was just speaking on mechanics of the fib I never really have used atr are you saying if the atr is 140 and it has gone 250 in one direction it will likely go the other way? I always thought atr was the average sum pippage of a pairs daily movement ups and downs...

er wait I understand mebbe what you are saying now. if a pair traverses its atr or over its atr in one session with a definte directionality it is not likely to continue that move? sounds a lot like S?R and momentum price goes up and down supply and demand no?

if so that, does go well with the chicken

Sizz
Hey Sizz,
When I speak of ATR I am talking daily high to daily low. If at London close it has traveled beyond that range from high to low (based on 5 -10 day ATR or high to low) then it is very likely to retrace. That's all I am saying. Not trying to be difficult but think of it like a rubber band....it stretches and stretches all day and the gets weak at the end of the day and pulls back. Maybe breaks intraday 0/100 or a smaller one for some pips...although I like trading it at the extremes before it turns around. This can be tricky, but it's all based on hitting a key area at the end of the day with the ATR considered. It broke a pretty big range on the g/u yesterday and hit the 138 at about 10AM EST or so after travelling 200+ pips up. What happened? retreat...retreat.

Just my 2.....

Daniel
  • #2,120
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:23pm Jan 16, 2008 12:23pm
took my first ever GBP/JPY live trade last night (London session) only traded .1 lots because after all it is the "beast/dragon" but it worked out OK.

Weekly and Daily fibs were pretty much over extended to their 138 and 162 levels but the set up was there and I took it short from 207.51 to 207.13. I was dead tired so then I went to bed and yet once again, I wish I hadn't. Or at least I should have placed a buy stop order at 208.53.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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trading naked.......
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