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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #2,881
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:04am Jan 16, 2008 2:04am
Quoting DutchTrader
cesar,

199 is the next GJ bear target. Your thoughts? that's on the monthly though
Very likely... It's the 50% fib from 2000 low -2007high.

Might be a price to start buying
  • #2,882
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:15am Jan 16, 2008 2:15am
Quoting cesarnc
Very likely... It's the 50% fib from 2000 low -2007high.

Might be a price to start buying
I thought the same thing.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,883
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:19am Jan 16, 2008 2:19am
Quoting cesarnc
Very likely... It's the 50% fib from 2000 low -2007high.

Might be a price to start buying
Yeah, I was thinking about that but I would have to wait and see what the overall market sentiment is when we reach there.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #2,884
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:19am Jan 16, 2008 2:19am
Quoting cesarnc
Very likely... It's the 50% fib from 2000 low -2007high.

Might be a price to start buying
Dont forget its also the target price from the weekly H&S..
  • #2,885
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:28am Jan 16, 2008 2:28am
Yes Ash, yes dd33.

My strategies are good for trending periods, so I'll let them take me, not gonna think too much over this.

Anything in this 210-200 area may hold the bottom, maybe for the year. As we are talking weekly here, this beast can just close at the 38% again (212ish) and up we go from there.

Soon Fed will act, as this is what they are doing. And if they really changed focus to the recession instead of the inflation (as people say), then their action will please the market for the middle term (months)
  • #2,886
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:29am Jan 16, 2008 2:29am
I think dd33 is right, for the moment the market's seems to be taking a break from these unwinding moves.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,887
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:32am Jan 16, 2008 2:32am
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- ABN Amro Bank NV cut its forecast for European Central Bank interest rates, the third bank to do so since last week's threat by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to raise borrowing costs.

ABN Amro said yesterday the Frankfurt-based ECB will keep the benchmark rate at 4 percent this year. Previously, ABN Amro had predicted two increases. Last week, after Trichet promised to act ``preemptively'' to tame inflation, Societe Generale said the key rate would remain unchanged after previously predicting an increase. Dresdner Kleinwort said it now expects a rate cut.


Trichet's speaking this pm.
  • #2,888
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:34am Jan 16, 2008 2:34am
Quoting cesarnc
Morning all...

Ohayo Mr. Nikkei. One of my GJs went in 4:04GMT, +100 pips 05:45 GMT, arigato gozaymasu.

Now where are we going?
Yep these last few days were easy to trade for some bizarre reason. Cable, GJ and GBPCHF (which you really really should try by the way) were pretty neat, Euro wasn't too bad on either side of the trading, and UJ was not too hard to read for those looking to short. I made a mistake a few days back and recovered pretty quick, so we can't complain about volatility OR price action at the moment.

I don't know how your system works, this is for discretionary trades only I guess.

For now I would stay out of any UJ derived pair (news in the NY session).
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #2,889
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:37am Jan 16, 2008 2:37am
Quoting cesarnc
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- ABN Amro Bank NV cut its forecast for European Central Bank interest rates, the third bank to do so since last week's threat by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to raise borrowing costs.

ABN Amro said yesterday the Frankfurt-based ECB will keep the benchmark rate at 4 percent this year. Previously, ABN Amro had predicted two increases. Last week, after Trichet promised to act ``preemptively'' to tame inflation, Societe Generale said the key rate would remain unchanged after previously predicting an increase. Dresdner Kleinwort said it now expects a rate cut.


Trichet's speaking this pm.
He is speaking for the next 3 days so maybe we will get a better idea...

Seems to be more talk going around lately of a cut/hold for the euro.....

HOLLA
  • #2,890
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:41am Jan 16, 2008 2:41am
Quoting Plutonite
Yep these last few days were easy to trade for some bizarre reason. Cable, GJ and GBPCHF (which you really really should try by the way)
I'll test the nicotina's strategy in GBPCHF, good idea. Then I'll report.

It's just a hi-low strategy, that's all. The key will be finding the time range to declare the hi-low.

I'll run some backtesting here. I'm sick and tired of seeing you guys partying $ out of this pair and I'm outside the house with my nose glued to the window
  • #2,891
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:48am Jan 16, 2008 2:48am
Quoting cesarnc
I'll test the nicotina's strategy in GBPCHF, good idea. Then I'll report.

It's just a hi-low strategy, that's all. The key will be finding the time range to declare the hi-low.

I'll run some backtesting here. I'm sick and tired of seeing you guys partying $ out of this pair and I'm outside the house with my nose glued to the window
Dont tell me u are not satisfied with GJ's "service" now.. :
  • #2,892
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:55am Jan 16, 2008 2:55am
Quoting dd33
Dont tell me u are not satisfied with GJ's "service" now.. :
It's doing fine. But who knows? Maybe GBPCHF can do likewise...

I just don't like discretionary trades in the crosses. I prefer going with a tight rules EA. you know, get rid of the "cesarnc inda house" factor LOL...
  • #2,893
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:56am Jan 16, 2008 2:56am
Quoting cesarnc
It's doing fine. But who knows? Maybe GBPCHF can do likewise...

I just don't like discretionary trades in the crosses. I prefer going with a tight rules EA. you know, get rid of the "cesarnc inda house" factor LOL...
Cesar, whats EA?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,894
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:59am Jan 16, 2008 2:59am
Quoting cesarnc
I'll test the nicotina's strategy in GBPCHF, good idea. Then I'll report.

It's just a hi-low strategy, that's all. The key will be finding the time range to declare the hi-low.

I'll run some backtesting here. I'm sick and tired of seeing you guys partying $ out of this pair and I'm outside the house with my nose glued to the window
Yeah don't you just hate that. The guests at your party are having more fun than you?
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #2,895
  • Jan 16, 2008 3:02am Jan 16, 2008 3:02am
On a serious note, individuals shouldn't limit themselves. I used to do that until I saw the light. I am not going to disclose all of my positions but as of last week, I was over 10,000 pips combined.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #2,896
  • Jan 16, 2008 3:03am Jan 16, 2008 3:03am
Quoting DutchTrader
Cesar, whats EA?
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=51365

You will find it in the thread's attachement. Look for the lastest version.

Long story short, so you won't have to read the whole thread, the strategy for GJ is.

- get hi-low between 18gmt and 1:59GMT (close of 1gmt candle).
- Set buy stop above the high, sell stop below the low. In the EA you can set a "buffer", that is, a distance in pips from the marks. I use zero
- You can set the SL. I use 100 pips with no re-enter if breached. Some use -50 and the EA replaces the stop order oce again if SL hit
- TP 100 pips (you can change that).

Can use for any pair, as you can also change the time range.

For GBPCHF I'll have to figure out this time range, as the GJ's strategy gets part of Asian session range. I don't know if Asian session do much about CHF for the range to be reliable.
  • #2,897
  • Jan 16, 2008 3:03am Jan 16, 2008 3:03am
Quoting cesarnc
It's doing fine. But who knows? Maybe GBPCHF can do likewise...

I just don't like discretionary trades in the crosses. I prefer going with a tight rules EA. you know, get rid of the "cesarnc inda house" factor LOL...
Good point there.. btw cesar, do u have nico's source code? Im thinking of adding "only trade with the trend" rules and see how it performs.
  • #2,898
  • Jan 16, 2008 3:09am Jan 16, 2008 3:09am
Quoting dd33
Good point there.. btw cesar, do u have nico's source code? Im thinking of adding "only trade with the trend" rules and see how it performs.
I don't have it. The author didn't disclose that.

Some defend the thesis of adding a "trend" indicator of some sort, like EMAs or something, so to avoid ranging periods.

I noticed that the strategy can work even in ranging periods because 100 pips for GJ is a piece of cake.

However, the majority of the losses come from news spikes that gets you in the wrong way. Both economic data and stock market-related news that move the futures too much.

********
Talking about futures
Dow smashed at -100 (12.5K going down)

Euro stocks down 1%
  • #2,899
  • Jan 16, 2008 3:14am Jan 16, 2008 3:14am
Quoting cesarnc
I don't have it. The author didn't disclose that.

Some defend the thesis of adding a "trend" indicator of some sort, like EMAs or something, so to avoid ranging periods.

I noticed that the strategy can work even in ranging periods because 100 pips for GJ is a piece of cake.

However, the majority of the losses come from news spikes that gets you in the wrong way. Both economic data and stock market-related news that move the futures too much.
I see.. thanx for the info..
  • #2,900
  • Jan 16, 2008 4:17am Jan 16, 2008 4:17am
Quoting bohogirl
Awww.... here sweety, have a beer.

Now, get back to trading - we got work to do!

I'm in Love


Not only will she make me a sandwich but she'll bring me a beer as well,
And I get the maid and cook. Almost too good to be true

Wait.....Is this a "marriage" trap I should wait for a retest.
Just Trade It
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