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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,001
  • Jan 15, 2008 3:01am Jan 15, 2008 3:01am
Well,

my guess is:
with this PB and after hitting the 162 it will retrace to at least 212.00
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,002
  • Jan 15, 2008 3:28am Jan 15, 2008 3:28am
Quoting Islander
Before I catch up on the overnight posts, here's a just completed move in GJ - the "hypothetical trade" was worth around 160 pips and hit the 132 target close to a time tgt too.

As UJ has an active 132 target down at 107.09, I'm thinking GJ will drop further.
price and time eh...sounds like u bagged the moley quail and busted gann.......... care to share?
  • #2,003
  • Jan 15, 2008 5:06am Jan 15, 2008 5:06am
Quoting dagoods
hey sizzz.... green bars look very nice....does your color scheme have anything to do with your placement of fibs? or someone pointed out the "u" shape? i'd like to know what i am looking at/for? thanks pal

Dude me too. I had like a testing frenzy yesterday and like I was telling you was going bombs.. but right now just waking up I am confused. Good thing I wrote the stuff down. hehe Know thy enemy...in this case my enemy is well myself! isn;t it always though?

Good eye. Baby blue is the native color of fibs (Gann is steel grey) IF you use baby blue you can see the fib marks as bright green.

KIDDING! hehe no color is nothing. I did it so I could have contrast without losing anymore more my eyesight. Start at a stark white chart for so long I started to feel like I was in scanners!

as far as looking for something that was just for that dude. The only things cool on those charts are a 132 bounce to hit a polar 132 and the ej is a simple 0 pierce chart.

My Dragon completed last night though. I will have to go to my tradestation and see how UY, GY, and Gooey did since my charts aren't here and my brain is too numb to think.

SIzz
  • #2,004
  • Jan 15, 2008 5:27am Jan 15, 2008 5:27am
ok guys and gals,

Will someone care to explain how you view fib clusters. Sorry to be a simpleton here. I know what fib clusters are..."an area where there are fib levels clustered together...ha...but how do you trade that??? I guess I am asking are we focusing on the 0 and 100 clusters or 138 clusters? What is the relevance other than a strong s/r area which price s/r could tell you anyway or are we looking at potential targets for high probabilities of it getting there? I have traded fib "convergences" for a long time and I guess you could view that as a cluster, like where a 38 aligns a 62 etc.

?????

thanks,
Daniel
  • #2,005
  • Jan 15, 2008 5:58am Jan 15, 2008 5:58am
Final update on trade that I took on GU trade from yesterday. I added a second position to the long side overnight for 25 pips. My original long is now in the black for about 30 pips and I'm about 20-25 pips away from reaching my target on that trade. I have a trailing stop set at BE+5 so profit on the original is guaranteed. Unfortunately I don't think I'll be able to follow the market anymore this week so this trade will close one way or the other, either for +5 or +50 pips on the original. Final tally goes like this. Original long will either be +5 or +50 pip profit. I took two short hedges yesterday for +16 and +30 and added to my long for +25 a few hours ago for +71 on the hedges. So for a trade that originally was looking for about 50 pips, its turned out to be a series of trades for at least 76 pips to possibly 121.

No more live trading posts for me in this thread. Maybe we can dedicate another thread to live trades?

Most valuable lessons learned from this trade: 1) Even though I was stuck in a cycle didn't mean that I still couldn't trade other ongoing cycles as they occurred. This is a great tool to use if you're stubborn and want to hold a trade until you are "right" about it. Even if I was going to be wrong about the original trade, I had decreased the original risk by about 1/3.
2) Skunny is the man! At first it was very tempting for me to try and figure out every step he takes to trade, but I've come to realize that we all view the market differently and have to weigh our own personal factors into each position we take. Thats what a market is anyway, just a tug of war between millions of opinions. Even people deciding to sit out the market are having an effect on price. Anyway, I love Skunny's approach to this thread. He sort of showed us a different way to use a very commonly used tool, but we needed to figure out for ourselves just how to use it for our own needs. I hope he has more to "sort of" show us!!!
  • #2,006
  • Jan 15, 2008 6:01am Jan 15, 2008 6:01am
Just as I clicked submit on that last post my BE + 5 got stopped out. Total net of 76 pips on that series of trades. Now I can do my 12-14 work day with a smile!! I will try to post a chart or two of the series of trades that I took, but it may not be till later this week. I hope that everyone continues to post their charts and opinions. I'm learning so much from everybody!
  • #2,007
  • Jan 15, 2008 8:17am Jan 15, 2008 8:17am
Hi all,
Please view the chart and offer your opinions. Of course we have had a break and should achieve the 138 which in my opinion offers a possible short trade. I have noticed that when the 138 is hit, especially at another fib retraement or extension level and previous s/r we get a nice little bounce or retracement. The 9754 area offers a good possibility of a short trade given it was a daily low on Dec. 24th and rallied for a good little pull back of around 345 pips in the following days. Let's me know this area of the market is very sensative. Given we have achieved almost 200 pips as of this writing, I would say this trade may offer some pipabilities.

Any one care to comment????

Daniel
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  • #2,008
  • Edited 8:44am Jan 15, 2008 8:25am | Edited 8:44am
Quoting 4X4EVER
ok guys and gals,

Will someone care to explain how you view fib clusters. Sorry to be a simpleton here. I know what fib clusters are..."an area where there are fib levels clustered together...ha...but how do you trade that??? I guess I am asking are we focusing on the 0 and 100 clusters or 138 clusters? What is the relevance other than a strong s/r area which price s/r could tell you anyway or are we looking at potential targets for high probabilities of it getting there? I have traded fib "convergences" for a long time and I guess you could view that as a cluster, like where a 38 aligns a 62 etc.

?????

thanks,
Daniel

Hey Daniel!

they are a big deal.

I am posting a chart to show what I mean.

I might( and did for second) take the blue a short call. I fibbed it right or wrong that way originally


if I had gone short I would be eaten alive. Now I see a potential upside of 2.0275 that is like an 800 pip potential difference !! then I scaled out...

So I fib my charts and look for it so I don't end up with a short blue fib in a long market basically so to speak hehe pay attention to them see how they react for you in testing.

Sizz

when I was all zoomed up my blue fib had a 0 level 2 to 3 bars to left of that spike making the spike a pierce and making the fib short IMO>

also that blue fib did not work out pip perfect so it was still wrong OR the cluster gave it static being such a strong sr threw it out of wack and caused slop by a few pips hmm
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  • #2,009
  • Jan 15, 2008 8:46am Jan 15, 2008 8:46am
Quoting bronxterp
I must admit that I fell asleep at the computer and missed this one! I was waiting for the brown fibs to break at 1.4823 since the shorter cycle in yellow was being a little more picky! Please notice that even though the brown cycle had completed to the downside a few days ago, I still kept it on my chart since it failed to complete another cycle below this point. Now it has completed its upside destiny.

Right now I feel like Luke Skywalker in Star Wars Ep IV. I realize that I am a Jedi who has the potential for great power, but I'm still a whiny amateur who has a ton more to learn before I defeat the dark side of trading. Thanks again to the Jedi trading master Obi Wan Skunnobi!
Hello,
I have been wondering about this for awhile and now see it on your chart. After your (brown fib) had completed it's cycle you left it in place and it did eventually hit your high side target. Have you found this to work best? I would have moved my fib to the next swing after the cycle completed. Has it been determined which is best (right) or are both ok?
Any comments would be appreciated.
Thanks for your help!
Mark
  • #2,010
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:31am Jan 15, 2008 9:31am
Skunny, ( and all the contributors)

This forum has taken off in a fashion unlike most other threads at FF. I would like to extend congratulations to skunny for starting this thread in the first place. Oh, sure most of us have a long way to go but this thread is only a month old...and 5 stars already....soon I am sure, this will be the standard by which other threads are judged...IMO anyway. I cannot thank all of you enough for the contributions to this thread and look forward to much more info as we are ready to recieve it from moneyskunny. I am sure the workshop will be worth the trip wherever it is. Let the laughs be plenty and the pips be many. Cheers...and...

Congrats to all!!!!!

Daniel
  • #2,011
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:35am Jan 15, 2008 9:35am
Quoting sizzler
Hey Daniel!

they are a big deal.

I am posting a chart to show what I mean.

I might( and did for second) take the blue a short call. I fibbed it right or wrong that way originally


if I had gone short I would be eaten alive. Now I see a potential upside of 2.0275 that is like an 800 pip potential difference !! then I scaled out...

So I fib my charts and look for it so I don't end up with a short blue fib in a long market basically so to speak hehe pay attention to them see how they react for you in testing.

Sizz

when I was all zoomed up my blue fib had a 0 level 2 to 3 bars to left of that spike making the spike a pierce and making the fib short IMO>

also that blue fib did not work out pip perfect so it was still wrong OR the cluster gave it static being such a strong sr threw it out of wack and caused slop by a few pips hmm
Thanks sizz!

Kind of looks like my e/u a few weeks ago(that skunny commented on) huh? Do you THINK the g/u may be lagging a tad...." A tad Lloyd...we drove a fifth of the way across the country in the wrong direction and ...."...oh sorry, had a dumb and dumber moment there...
anyway....I see exactly what you mean. Thanks much....

I might add that the g/u filled a 138 short extension DURING ASIA and then hit the preverbial trampoline off to a 200 pip rally. Do you think time of day MAY have something to do with the moley quail..just a thought!

Daniel
  • #2,012
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:58am Jan 15, 2008 9:58am
Quoting MarkDabid
Hello,
I have been wondering about this for awhile and now see it on your chart. After your (brown fib) had completed it's cycle you left it in place and it did eventually hit your high side target. Have you found this to work best? I would have moved my fib to the next swing after the cycle completed. Has it been determined which is best (right) or are both ok?
Any comments would be appreciated.
Thanks for your help!
Mark
Mark,

Can't give you a "for-sure-positive" answer yet.....but....my experience so far (admittedly a few weeks with this) has shown what you are seeing. How I have been playing it is to fib the next swing but I keep old ones plotted as well. More often than not, those old levels will later come into play. I am on a similar course as you seem to be .
  • #2,013
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:00am Jan 15, 2008 10:00am
Quoting DXTrade
Well,

my guess is:
with this PB and after hitting the 162 it will retrace to at least 212.00
Just to complete this chart:
My blue short hit Target 1 and 2 with around 200 pips.
The black sell ended with break even +1

And sometimes that is better then s.. When the price does what you think it will do!
I went long at the high of the PB as I posted post #2001 and it hit 212.00 sharp with 140 pips before falling again.

That is definitely one of the rare moments of joy, making this whole thing worthwhile!

See ya tomorrow guys
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,014
  • Edited 10:19am Jan 15, 2008 10:09am | Edited 10:19am
Quoting 4X4EVER
Thanks sizz!

Kind of looks like my e/u a few weeks ago(that skunny commented on) huh? Do you THINK the g/u may be lagging a tad...." A tad Lloyd...we drove a fifth of the way across the country in the wrong direction and ...."...oh sorry, had a dumb and dumber moment there...
anyway....I see exactly what you mean. Thanks much....

I might add that the g/u filled a 138 short extension DURING ASIA and then hit the preverbial trampoline off to a 200 pip rally. Do you think time of day MAY have something to do with the moley quail..just a thought!

Daniel


Hehehehe OUR PETS HEADS ARE FALLING OFF!!! pretty birdy

yeah so I would use it like a super resistance play trade. a stop that is so small it isn't there. great trade op.

I think that TOD time of day is moot. Price is going somewhere and whatever session moves is there finally is fine with me. even if it is frankfort or sydney. IMO IMO IMWO

Sizz

edit Edit Nice work DX those days are superb plus if you time it right you only have to work for a few hours that day HECK if your set up is nice that could be your week if you can stay away that long
  • #2,015
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:20am Jan 15, 2008 10:20am
I said I would take a look at (my) yesterday's result compared to last week. Lowell's idea about retracement level was good and something I am still looking at. But, I think my problem (as dumb as this sounds) is that I forgot exactly what I did that worked so well (weekend away from trading and all...). I was testing a lot of concepts.

Today....much better..... 10 trades.....no losses......9 wins & 1 BE......67 pips on the EJ in 4 hours this A.M. Better yet is the worst that price retraced against me in any of these positions was 7 pips!

I would love to keep going but this is good enough for today.....my business has issues that need attending to. I'll be gone for most of the day.

I am going to run more tests on what I am doing. While quantifiable....there is a lot of PA "feel" going on.....I have logged over 600 hrs of "real" screen time over the last year seeing how price moves. Once I am more "sure" that this "keeps" working, I will throw it out for consideration. I don't want to send anyone on wild goose chases yet. I love the way that the "group" is all looking at things in slightly different ways and from different angles. I think this will really help us all come up with something of value to share with each other.
  • #2,016
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:31am Jan 15, 2008 10:31am
Quoting sizzler
Hehehehe OUR PETS HEADS ARE FALLING OFF!!! pretty birdy

yeah so I would use it like a super resistance play trade. a stop that is so small it isn't there. great trade op.

I think that TOD time of day is moot. Price is going somewhere and whatever session moves is there finally is fine with me. even if it is frankfort or sydney. IMO IMO IMWO

Sizz

edit Edit Nice work DX those days are superb plus if you time it right you only have to work for a few hours that day HECK if your set up is nice that could be your week if you can stay away that long
Ok, Sizz...got my boxing gloves on...Ha

I do think time of day is important when it comes to this aspect...range, meaning Average true range. If the gbp/usd has traveled 250 pips and the average range is ...ah.... 140 then I highly doubt that it will achieve new highs during asia. If it does, great trading opp and maybe it did fill the 138 ext of the prev range but I am saying that this is an excellent opp to go the opposite (npi) direction. Last night was a great example. Of course you could have traded it down the the 138 at the break late in the day, but IMO the opposite trade was much better. All of us trade differently, that is GREAT I just am adding a little of what I have observed over the last 2 years and what a great institutional trader has shown me about ranges. With what skunny has shown me about the 138 itls like catching a tennis ball with velcro (splg???). Just food for thought, that's all!!!YUMMY

Daniel
  • #2,017
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:36am Jan 15, 2008 10:36am
I cant really post this in the other thread, so even though its got a number of gann lines and other things -like a time line that was only 1 bar out for the high - I think it is interest as I feel that we may see both yellow 132 levels hit.

Also, the confluence of lines at the high is really great.....now IF it can be reapeated.....mm, better work on some timing for that lower 132

Edit: lower yellow 132 is at 1.4807
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,018
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:56am Jan 15, 2008 10:56am
Quoting Islander
I cant really post this in the other thread, so even though its got a number of gann lines and other things -like a time line that was only 1 bar out for the high - I think it is interest as I feel that we may see both yellow 132 levels hit.

Also, the confluence of lines at the high is really great.....now IF it can be reapeated.....mm, better work on some timing for that lower 132

Edit: lower yellow 132 is at 1.4807
Hi Islander,
Are these Gann lines drawn beofre or after the 138 is hit. If before, that is great - but why did it start at the 23.6% ?

Thanks,
Ian
  • #2,019
  • Jan 15, 2008 11:12am Jan 15, 2008 11:12am
Quoting Brunite
Mark,

Can't give you a "for-sure-positive" answer yet.....but....my experience so far (admittedly a few weeks with this) has shown what you are seeing. How I have been playing it is to fib the next swing but I keep old ones plotted as well. More often than not, those old levels will later come into play. I am on a similar course as you seem to be .
Thanks Brunite.......One more question please for you and others.
At what point are you considering a cycle ended? At the 138 or 162 extension? Why?
Thanks again,
Mark
  • #2,020
  • Jan 15, 2008 11:13am Jan 15, 2008 11:13am
Quoting 4X4EVER
Ok, Sizz...got my boxing gloves on...Ha

I do think time of day is important when it comes to this aspect...range, meaning Average true range. If the gbp/usd has traveled 250 pips and the average range is ...ah.... 140 then I highly doubt that it will achieve new highs during asia. If it does, great trading opp and maybe it did fill the 138 ext of the prev range but I am saying that this is an excellent opp to go the opposite (npi) direction. Last night was a great example. Of course you could have traded it down the the 138 at the break late in the day, but IMO the opposite trade was much better. All of us trade differently, that is GREAT I just am adding a little of what I have observed over the last 2 years and what a great institutional trader has shown me about ranges. With what skunny has shown me about the 138 itls like catching a tennis ball with velcro (splg???). Just food for thought, that's all!!!YUMMY

Daniel
OH man I didn;t bring my gloves!!!
Rodger that. I was just speaking on mechanics of the fib I never really have used atr are you saying if the atr is 140 and it has gone 250 in one direction it will likely go the other way? I always thought atr was the average sum pippage of a pairs daily movement ups and downs...

er wait I understand mebbe what you are saying now. if a pair traverses its atr or over its atr in one session with a definte directionality it is not likely to continue that move? sounds a lot like S?R and momentum price goes up and down supply and demand no?

if so that, does go well with the chicken

Sizz
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