Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

Not really. All they are saying is later today. Would you guess it to be before or after the brunch?

Just blew another guy's stak at the poker table and doubled mine... That was one beautiful move, I must say...
Another one not seeing colors for a week. http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...miley_rock.gif

When news are as awful, they usually release afterhours. But as this one is circulating already, I can't tell.

06:31 AMCitigroup Posts Q4 Loss Per Share Of $1.99

Citigroup Falls To Loss In Q4 - Quick Facts [C]

1/15/2008 6:33:48 AM Citigroup Inc. (C) reported a net loss for the 2007 fourth quarter of $9.83 billion, or $1.99 per share, compared to a profit of $5.13 billion or $1.03 per share in the same quarter last year. On average, 18 analysts polled by First Call/Thomson Financial expected a loss of $1 per share for the current fourth quarter.

The current quarter results include $18.1 billion in pre-ax write-downs and credit costs on sub-prime related direct exposures in fixed income markets, and a $4.1 billion increase in credit costs in U.S. consumer primarily related to higher current and estimated losses on consumer loans.

Revenues were $7.2 billion, down 70% from $23.83 billion, driven by significant write-downs on sub-prime related direct exposures in fixed income markets. Five Wall Street analysts' consensus revenue estimate came in at $10.64 billion.

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co., the U.S. brokerage battered by losses from subprime mortgages, raised $6.6 billion by selling preferred shares to outside investors.

This is usually good news for the markets, as it shows that there is $ somewhere to rescue them. Citi is said to be after the same kind of deal, possibly with Saudis.

Carry trades just JUMPED.

Expected $1.00

Dow just spiked down LOL.. Gonna be one of those days...

Citi's write down was "only" $18 billion.

It was good news due to the rumored $24 billion. No words on the layoffs yet

Dow spiked back up to -24 from -64.

Those guys were smart. They managed to pop in with the whole package. Citi "said it will receive $14.5 billion from outside investors to shore up depleted capital."

Long story short, it will be seen more as a hiccup

Today sucks, watching some of my profits slowly slip away. Waiting for the correction to finish then add some more. Mo Lots, Mo pips, Mo money

Today's going to be an interesting day, the USD index is at another 2008 low and being supported by the 200ma

here comes the n.y. boys. we have big news comming out the u.s.

B.T.W. i took have my profit at 9680, gonna let the other half run thru u.s. news and see if we can get to 9770 for the other half, let's ride it out, man it feel good to be back home trading.

at this point in the game news don't matter now you can eather breakeven or make more pips, this should be a bumpy ride thru u.s. news, hold on to your seats boys and girls, i suggest if your not in a trade don't jump in till you get a clear signal. good luck to my fellow traders and let get these pips.

where's my long lost brother cesarnc, where you at bro?

Gone to get my car that had a problem with the injection. Damn guy always scares the crap out of me and then comes "oh, I didn't have to replace the part. Just cleaned it up and now it's ok". $150 potential blast down to $20 wheeeeewww...

Now let's see what this MF market's gonna give us. Euro is back flerting with 1.49 and hoping for a lousy retail sales so we can French kiss Ms. 1.5 today

Rumours of an emergency rate cut over coming days by the US Federal Reserve have swept the global markets, setting off a fresh plunge in the dollar.

Gold surged to an all-time high of $914 an ounce in New York on bets that the authorities will flood the global system with further liquidity to stave off a mounting debt crisis.

Ashraf Laidi, a currency expert at CMC Markets, said futures contracts were starting to price in a serious likelihood of a half point cut before the next scheduled meeting at the end of January.

"With US equity indices testing their August lows and current macro-economic dynamics knocking at the door of recession, we place the probability of a 50 basis point inter-meeting rate cut as high as 70pc to occur as early as next week."

Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi, a member of the European Central Bank's executive council, warned that the tumbling dollar may now start to foreclose the option of US rate cuts and force the Fed to keep monetary policy tighter than it would like.

"I would not be so sure about the movements of the Fed. There is a serious problem with the dollar in America. We will see what margins they have for further rate cuts," he told Italy's La Repubblica newspaper.

It is the first time that a top central banker has openly aired concerns that dollar weakness could constrain US economic policy.
Until now Washington has largely been able to ignore the currency, treating the slide as a headache for the rest of the world.
The euro briefly touched $1.49 today, just shy of its all-time high.
A leaked client note by HSBC added fresh fuel to the rate excitement, suggesting that Fed may now have to slash a full percentage point by month's end to fend off a serious downturn.

The bank's highly-rated New York economist, Ian Morris, said a new tone of urgency had been struck by top US officials over recent days, raising the possibility of two sets of cuts this month.

Fed chair Ben Bernanke prepared the way for drastic cuts with a speech on Thursday saying the authorities were "exceptionally alert" to the risks as the housing slump triggers the first wave of jobs losses. US unemployment jumped from 4.7pc to 5pc in December, the sharpest jump in a quarter century.

US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said the administration is rushing to craft a fiscal stimulus package to boost spending. "Time is of the essence," he said.

HSBC said the Fed had now raised expectations so far that it risks setting off fresh "financial stresses" if it fails to deliver a serious shot in the arm.

"If the Fed were to cut inter-meeting, we think it would by 50 basis points, followed by another 50 basis points on the 30th," it said. The bank said this is a possibility, not a hard forecast.

Overnight News
=============
TRICHET
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WE HAVE NEVER CAMPAIGNED FOR INTERNATIONAL USE OF EURO HAVE PROVED WE ARE CREDIBLE AND THE EURO IS STABLE ECB, ALL GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKERS HAVE SAID THERE WAS AN UNDERESTIMATION OF RISKS OF FIN MARKETS LIQUIDITY INJECTIONS AIMED TO KEEP SHORT-TERM RATES NEAR ECB'S KEY INTEREST RATES
RISKS TO PRICE STABILITY ARE VERY IMPORTANT AT THE MOMENT ECB'S MANDATE IS CLEAR AND PUBLIC SUPPORTS IT NO-ONE THINKS NOW IS THE MOMENT TO BE "LAXIST" ON INFLATION MUST NOT ENTER INTO A SPIRAL OF RISING PRICES, SALARIES ALL ECB DECISIONS TAKEN IN COLLEGIATE MANNER

TOP EU MARKET REGULATOR

In this case, would he cut before or after he speaks on Thursday (in Congress, isn't it?)

What would be the best play? Cut before and justify later or prepare the ground further and cut on Friday?

Seen Fed, Paulson and Bush like to come with big deals on Friday. I guess is to give the market 2 days shut down for people to chew the news

Hey Ash, just read that you're trading the 5/8 crossover. Liked the strategy, too.

Are you doing fine with this strategy?

Seems both are about to cross in the daily...

I like simple shit like that.

Today US retail sales report will determine whether the dollar falls to a new record low.

If consumer spending actually falls in the month of December, then not only is a 50bp rate cut from the Federal Reserve guaranteed, but so would a rally up to 1.50 in the EUR/USD.

Today are the December PPI figures, both headline and core seen falling to 0.2% m/m. Traders will closely look at the rest of this week's data - consisting of industrial production, CPI, housing starts, building permits, Fed Beige Book, Philadelphia Fed index, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Traders continue to focus on deteriorating economic conditions and the UK and the increasing possibility for further policy easing from the Bank of England.

From Eurozone, focus will be on ZEW economic sentiments in Jan. Germany is expected to deteriorate further from -37.2 to -38.

Japanese economy is expected to slow for some time due to uncertainty over global economic conditions.