Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus

Quoting Bobokus

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................ I felt like we would see 1.9540 once price fell back below its opening price but so far has stalled some and may consolidate. ..................

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Quoting PiPr Pro

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nice research - your 1st thought reagarding lower panned out

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Quoting PiPr Pro

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nice research - your 1st thought reagarding lower panned out

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Quoting PiPr Pro

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The ellipse contained a small trade also.

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Quoting Bobokus

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Within the basis of my strategy, the 1700 or 1800 are both legitimate short entry's but with it being the time of day I let it go, all it needed was for the low of the 1300 candle to break and its a stright shot to the 138.2. (T1).Its no big deal though it resets everytime and it's priming for the next one now. Looking for the direction around the 0500/0600 candles.

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Quoting PiPr Pro

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I'm looking forward to a potential workshop - I have the feeling your fib analysis / trade plan expertise has passed me up. My fibs have always been so simple from my index trading profession (not necessarily a good thing in forex) that I have had to be reliant on channels here as well. I have had some periods where I could depend fully on fib analysis alone, but not always. You & Skunny have indicated you can trade total fibs so I'm looking forward to the teaching. What's the old quote...."turn about is fair play". Thanks for the thread.

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Quoting Bobokus

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Mild update over last post, the weakness has shown through. I’ve adjusted my Intraday fib now and it looks to set up for a sell of a rally during the London session, maybe even a sell the break of the low if it cant retrace any before then. There is also a swing that can be pulled from the high of the 1600 candle that might be worth watching.

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Quoting eegle

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Hi Bo...fairly new here but been trading a while...what a great thread and im in the process of combining my style with your wonderful fib technique...I first want to thank you from the bottom of my heart for your teaching...You are helping me and Im sure many people developing a tremendous strategy...Im grabbing this pretty well, Im just used to the the "regular" fib useage....

Listen here is where I am a little shaky...

1. Is there a post where the BASIC rules for entry are layed out?

2. Is there a post of basic rules when you put another Intraday fib up? When do you put a new fib calculation up..I see you dont do it every day? Is it when and only when you reach T1 or T2? i see you put a new one up for tonight (tomorrow) but we never hit our targets for yesterdays Intraday fibs...

3. Your new fib calculations looked reversed...I need to get my head around this new one...I see the Intraday is calculated upon todays hi--lo....the Swing is based upon yesterdays lo and todays hi...I hope I made myself understandable...Can you please try and explain this and I think I can really grab this...Im missing some minor understanding here although I surely understand your system...in fact im using it successfully combined with my system for good entries...

My main problems are whe to draw the Intraday fibs and then also the Swing Fibs consistently...especially when I think I understand and then I get buffaloes..

Again a fairly detailed explanation of this last one for tonight will really go a long way in clearing up this dilema..

Thanks so much for your generosity

Greg D

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Quoting eegle

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Hi Bo...fairly new here but been trading a while...what a great thread and im in the process of combining my style with your wonderful fib technique...I first want to thank you from the bottom of my heart for your teaching...You are helping me and Im sure many people developing a tremendous strategy...Im grabbing this pretty well, Im just used to the the "regular" fib useage....

Listen here is where I am a little shaky...

1. Is there a post where the BASIC rules for entry are layed out?

2. Is there a post of basic rules when you put another Intraday fib up? When do you put a new fib calculation up..I see you dont do it every day? Is it when and only when you reach T1 or T2? i see you put a new one up for tonight (tomorrow) but we never hit our targets for yesterdays Intraday fibs...

3. Your new fib calculations looked reversed...I need to get my head around this new one...I see the Intraday is calculated upon todays hi--lo....the Swing is based upon yesterdays lo and todays hi...I hope I made myself understandable...Can you please try and explain this and I think I can really grab this...Im missing some minor understanding here although I surely understand your system...in fact im using it successfully combined with my system for good entries...

My main problems are whe to draw the Intraday fibs and then also the Swing Fibs consistently...especially when I think I understand and then I get buffaloes..

Again a fairly detailed explanation of this last one for tonight will really go a long way in clearing up this dilema..

Thanks so much for your generosity

Greg D

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Quoting Jared

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Does anybody have any thoughts on which part of the fibonacci cycle has the abosolute highest probability? For example, I have been practicing with vHands constantly testing strategies and learning price action (woulda been nice today if it was real money, I doubled my acount!) and it seems that if the market is in an established trend, say an uptrend for example, that if the swing high is broken it almost always continues in that direction.

The highest probability area therefore seems to be between the swing high and T1. If price is moving through the swing high then you can be almost certain it will continue that direction.

The reason I bring this up is I have been expeirimenting with different money management scalping. If after a retracement to at least the short fib a candle opens between the short fib and swing high I enter long and watch closely. If price starts to move more rapidly long I will open another position. If price breaks the swing high and continues with a decent amount of speed in that direction I open one position after another until I have 5 or 10 open. At T1 I either exit all or if price is still shooting up exit when it looses speed.

It turns out to not be the best risk:reward ratio (sometimes 5-10% of the account) but the idea is if it has a very high probability then more risk is warranted. I have been risking very little on trades that I am not so sure about and risking much more on the ones that look like perfect setups.

Any thoughts on this, or perhaps a way to improve the setup so the "trigger" can be pulled with greater confidence?

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Quoting Bobokus

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Here are some clips from the book im writing this may help some

1.
I must add that the settings I use in my fibs are the ones that work for me and may not necessarily work for everyone the same way,I don’t use all the fib levels since I see no use for them in my style. The only levels that make a difference to me and what I look for are the 38.2, 50, and the 61.8. Of coarse the 0 and 100 levels. In my experience this is where the decisions to enter are made. During the development of my fib strategy I found that it was a pain to have to keep drawing them from top to bottom when the move was up and bottom to top when the move was down. It didn’t make any sense and I saw that a lot of traders would say look their fib is upside down, I thought to myself it doesn’t matter they are the same in either direction. From that I relabeled my fib and always draw it from top to bottom. The re-labeling is as follows the 0 and the 100 become the Low and the High, the 38.2 level becomes the Short Fib level…as long as the price remains below or breaks though from above it the market is considered short. The 50 fib level becomes the pivot point between a long and short condition. The 61.8 level becomes the Long fib level…as long as the price is above it or breaks though it from below the market is considered long. The break of a fib level is meant as a candle opening above or below the level
The extensions I use are the 138.2 the 161.8/ -38.2and the -61.8. These will have your targets set above and below the 0(Low) and the 100 (High) of the fib tool and this is where you will exit your trades at. As a general rule I will take profit at the 138.2 level unless the price action dictates holding it or price simply blows though it. To ease the difficulty some I also re-labeled the 138.2 and the -38.2 extensions to display Target 1 or T1, The 161.8 and the -61.8 levels I have re-labeled Target 2 or T2.
0 level Low
100 level High
38.2 level Short
50 level Pivot
61.8 level Long
-38.2 level Target 1
-61.8 level Target 2
138.2 Target 1
161.8 Target 2

Levels are as follows:

These levels are the basis behind the strategy if you will. I use more than 1 fib tool at a time and I’ve had to name each one to the purpose it serves. This saves a lot of trouble later when you have more than one fib on the chart and trying to figure out which Short fib level price is testing. But for the most part these are the basic settings. The basic rules as stated above are
Ø 1.Fib is always drawn from high to low (top to bottom)
Ø 2. As long as the price is above the 61.8 fib level (Long fib level) or breaks the Long fib level from below the market is considered in a long condition. Also the bounce off of, price action determines entry. (Long entry triggers.)
Ø 3. The 50 fib level (Pivot) is the balance point between the long and short conditions, from there the break of the Long or Short fib level is the entry. It’s the ideal retracement I look for price to return too.
4. As long as price is below the 38.2 fib level (Short fib level) or breaks the Short fib level from above the market is considered in a short condition. Also the rejection of price from, price action determines entry.(Short entry triggers.)

2.Alot of it depends on what the market is doing at the time, but the Intraday is used to measure the movement over basically a 24 hour period, sometimes you have to fudge on this since it will move directional more than 24 hours before retraceing with a significant amout to justify stop pulling of it.As a general rule a fib is good until the 0 or 100 level of it are broken, the only reason you hold it after that are to hold for its extensions.

3.I understand where that can be confusing.Since we have been in this down trend anytime we start to rally in price of any significance i will begin to pull what I call my retracement fib in the event that price does continue to rally or its failure to continue i will have the short targets of where price is headed.As well as the long targets if the levels of it hold and in this case they did not hold so I would look to the short targets of it if we get the continuation down.So its not necessarily a swing fib its my retracement fib. The intraday is still measuring just todays movement
Think of the Intraday fib as measuring the movement of the day and the swing measuring the retracement of that movement.

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Quoting eegle

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Thanks Bo for the detailed response...Believe it or not I understand most all of it!! Now a question that might clear up this last fib...You quote: "Think of the Intraday fib as measuring the movement of the day and the swing measuring the retracement of that movement." That really helps me get my head around it...now the question I have is this...if the Swing Fib is the retracement of that movement of the day (Intraday) why was it measured from yesterdays lo (1.9482) to todays high (1.9646)? .What is that a retracement of? Thats what I cant understand...What is that particular Swing Fib a retracement of? It cant be a retracement of todays Intraday Hi and Low can it? Thats what I cant grasp
Thats whats puzzling me..the Swing lo you measured from for this last one...

Thanks again

Greg D

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Quoting eegle

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Thanks Bo for the detailed response...Believe it or not I understand most all of it!! Now a question that might clear up this last fib...You quote: "Think of the Intraday fib as measuring the movement of the day and the swing measuring the retracement of that movement." That really helps me get my head around it...now the question I have is this...if the Swing Fib is the retracement of that movement of the day (Intraday) why was it measured from yesterdays lo (1.9482) to todays high (1.9646)? .What is that a retracement of? Thats what I cant understand...What is that particular Swing Fib a retracement of? It cant be a retracement of todays Intraday Hi and Low can it? Thats what I cant grasp
Thats whats puzzling me..the Swing lo you measured from for this last one...

Thanks again

Greg D

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Quoting Bobokus

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Me personally I look to enter from the fib levels themselves since price has a tendancy to be rejected at the high or low sometimes giving me an early exit. During trending conditions its easy money to the 138.2 until the trend runs out of steam.Never traded by waiting on the high or low break so i cant tell you the success rate of that.Sometimes conditions will dictate thats the only trade youll get is the break of the high or low but i dont see that much, if im waiting on the high or or low to give its usually because ive missed my entry previously, and im in scalping mode.

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Quoting Bobokus

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There is more about the retracement fib and its purpose on pages 74-75 posts 1101-1119...you'll see.

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Quoting Bobokus

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Here are some clips from the book im writing this may help some

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Quoting Jared

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What are you looking for specifically when the fib levels are hit that give you confidence to enter the trade then? Can you please share what kind of price action patterns or formations you are looking for?

You mentioned earlier in the thread that a new candle opening above the long or below the short was the best entry. Sometimes candles blast through, or just hesitate not showing which direction they will go around a fib level. Also, on the larger time frames the candle opening rule might not work as good, because the fibs are much larger. You mentioned you look for price action. Can you explain this please?

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