Sadly, I cannot do any testing for at least another 10 days, when I am home at my computer. Don't think I better clutter up my father-in-laws computer with MT4, vhands and charts............lol. He thinks I'm nuts anyway.
Sheesh I am glad for it! you are going to need a big boot! I can be as blind as bat and stubborn as a mule
hehehe I am so used to trading a triangle, a few straight lines and a coupla candles that my "clever" brain got some new info and more lines and starts thinking it has it allllll figured out and grabs the wheel of the car because he is driving now!! he has been drinking.
meanwhile, my poor p and L is screaming in the back seat, white knuckled as the car swerves,crashes a guard rail and goes flying off a cliff!
all the while My "smart" brain is laughing manically looking at a chart, calculating angles and drawing a million fibs having No clue what is going on but pretty confidant because it seems pretty ingenious..
Mr. normal trading is just sitting in the passenger seat wild eyed, shouting at the brain
" hello?? memner me? I work you buffoon! I never didn't work what the heck are you doing??? Don';t scrap me modify me!!! eeediot ....AHHHhhhhhh"
so THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU.
My meditation is sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
Sizz
Ok sizz,
Slow down! hehe
I just saw your 4th chart..........IMO the way this fib is drawn is wrong also......there is no retrace.......so i think technically it could have failed the way you drew it.
I agree with the first GU chart.
EDIT: I just noticed that according to my theory, your EU chart 0 line should be at the low made appx 4 bars later, instead of where it is. I've seen fibs drawn like this and the last GU chart fail.
my logic was first bar to nail support solid then bingo that little pierce or hint clue bar and then boom we KNOW we are short..
heheMy 2 pips: Penetration is penetration...........a valid trigger on any TF unless it is bad data (conflicting data from several platforms).
These charts you've posted, (Post # 1923) illustrate the main problem I have run into while testing fibs. Some fibs have penetration of both the 0 and 100 lines. Which to me says they were drawn in the wrong place. Why? I don't think the swing you put the fib on is valid.............yet!
When to draw a new fib?
I have a working theory that states:
"In order for a swing on any TF to be fibbable, one must wait for at least a 38.2 retrace of the previous move for the swing to be valid (fibbable)".
So far, this seems to be the case. Also, somewhere Skunny stated that after a fib is completed and there are no more uncompleted fibs on his chart that he waits for "price to talk to him" before drawing the new fib. I personally think he is waiting for the retrace to a certain point before he re-fibs. I can't be positive what that point is for him, but for me (so far) it is a penetration of the old 61.8 (which is a 38.2 retrace) inner fib. I am anxious to here see more vhands testing on this. Could be a retrace to 50 line also.........once I am certain of this retrace point, I think I will have a concrete, tradeable system!
Anyone else see it this way???
You make an interesting point about the 38.2 fib pullback before validating a swing. I personally wouldn't use that rule of thumb, but I see what you are saying. I think you might finf there are times when that may work, others when it would not hold true. Aside from that, my original point is still true. When we apply our own particular internal "rules" to a particular setup on one TF, it may appear different or "invalid" on another. Especially where we use the candle close versus price penetration of a particular level.
I will watch to see if perhaps BOTH these levels may meet their respective targets from this pull. It will be interesting to know how it turns out. Thanks again for your input!
once I am certain of this retrace point, I think I will have a concrete, tradeable system!
Anyone else see it this way???
To address some previous pm's
Only Systems - Are Discretionary
What is - Isn't
This is my first chart posting, so please be honest, but kind! This is UJ H1.
All my previous fibs had been completed , except for the green,
price retraced, broke the 38 and there appeared to be new support there,
watched to see if the green would be completed and price came within 7 pips of the T1
I watched to see if resistance formed, which it did IMO, and considered the green complete and drew the Yellow fib.
Now, patience being the key/Skunny, I watched for support to form and and drew the red fib.
All targets have been hit, and now I will wait for new resistance to advance my next fib.
Comments, please.
Thanks
Kathy
Remember this Skunny post, page 100, post #1497:
Some folks were sort of puzzled by what this meant, but the "IS" part relates to his earlier statements where he talked about the fact that what he is showing us represents only about 1% of what "IS"...
Apparently when we lock ourselves into solid, inflexible rules and "concrete" systems, then price will break those rules and leave us lying helplessly in our "systems". We must trade PRICE and allow it to speak to us and tell us where it is going. We are all searching for absolutes here...me included. But the more I go through this, the more I find that the most concrete of all rules is....be flexible. The old saying about the trees that are flexible and bend in the wind are the ones that survive the storm is very true.
Thanks again for your insights, Lowell. Hopefully we will all get through this journey and help each other along in the process!
Biggest thing I notice on your charts and some others on here is that you've pulled your fibs from the bodies of candles rather then wicks. This may work to an extent also, but I am drawing my from the wicks as per Skunny. If I am trying to see what he sees in the market, I think my charts should be drawn the same way, IMO.
Thanks Pipskateer,
I think you misunderstand me a bit. I shouldn't call it a system perhaps.
I am testing under the premise that there are absolutes that Skunny follows......instead of discretion.
Otherwise I don't see how it could be a 100% method of trading.....am I making any sense?
Thanks Pipskateer,
I think you misunderstand me a bit. I shouldn't call it a system perhaps.
I am testing under the premise that there are absolutes that Skunny follows......instead of discretion.
Skunny has convinced me that his method is the exact opposite of discretionary!
Otherwise I don't see how it could be a 100% method of trading.....am I making any sense?
Biggest thing I notice on your charts and some others on here is that you've pulled your fibs from the bodies of candles rather then wicks. This may work to an extent also, but I am drawing my from the wicks as per Skunny. If I am trying to see what he sees in the market, I think my charts should be drawn the same way, IMO.
