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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #1,921
  • Jan 14, 2008 7:56am Jan 14, 2008 7:56am
Quoting Islander
Hi Sizz - thanks for your earlier post too. I'm interested in continuing work on Gann lines, but dont think we should do so here at present as we may be getting out of step with Skunny's teachings and program - and it is his thread!

If you and others are interested we could - say - post our Gann thoughts / charts in the old GBPJPY Analysis thread that is currently dormant.

What do you guys think?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16691&page=951

posted
  • #1,922
  • Jan 14, 2008 8:25am Jan 14, 2008 8:25am
Absolutely Brunite,
takes longer with me to sink in

Anyway... just to finish my GJ chart of today here the 4th edition:
Blue fib reached 162 - cycle finished
Black Fib reached 162 - cycle finished
Yellow Fib reached my TP at 138 - to follow

So now I will remove the blue Fib and walk the black one further.

Cool stuff... love it!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 21 KB
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #1,923
  • Jan 14, 2008 8:34am Jan 14, 2008 8:34am
Quoting Brunite
DX,

Welcome to the land of the "aha" moment.


I said something similar quite a while back:

Nuff said........
The problem I see is that what may appear to be a "BREAK" (full candle closure) on one TF, may only be a "PENETRATION" (wick only) on a higher TF. So, what do we do in a case like this?? Go Short? or Go Long? Both?

Here is a pic of the GU H1 and another pic of the same fib pull from the M15:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu fibo h1.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu fibo m15.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #1,924
  • Jan 14, 2008 8:43am Jan 14, 2008 8:43am
Quoting PiPr Pro
I started a vHands Tester on a arbitrary start date with what I consider aggressive $ management to test the draw down and time to double an account. To my surprise the account doubled in 10 trading days. I skipped a couple of trading days due to being unsure of the fib placement. Attached is the tester report in pdf file and the screen image of the trades.

I normally draw M15 fibs on GJ, but I stuck with H1 and it was much more simple.

Skunny - this is only a sample but if this keeps up after several hundred other tests I'll really be impressed. And, there were lots of other small swings to be traded during this time, but I kept things simple.
Very nice, Pipr Pro!
  • #1,925
  • Jan 14, 2008 8:57am Jan 14, 2008 8:57am
Quoting sizzler
....Thanks Pipskateer for kicking my duff and setting me straight...

Sizz.
Dude, I am more than happy to kick YOUR butt or anyone else's if it helps!
  • #1,926
  • Edited 9:47am Jan 14, 2008 9:04am | Edited 9:47am
Quoting Pipskateer
The problem I see is that what may appear to be a "BREAK" (full candle closure) on one TF, may only be a "PENETRATION" (wick only) on a higher TF. So, what do we do in a case like this?? Go Short? or Go Long? Both?

Here is a pic of the GU H1 and another pic of the same fib pull from the M15:

My 2 pips: Penetration is penetration...........a valid trigger on any TF unless it is bad data (conflicting data from several platforms).

These charts you've posted, (Post # 1923) illustrate the main problem I have run into while testing fibs. Some fibs have penetration of both the 0 and 100 lines. Which to me says they were drawn in the wrong place. Why? I don't think the swing you put the fib on is valid.............yet!

When to draw a new fib?

I have a working theory that states:

"In order for a swing on any TF to be fibbable, one must wait for at least a 38.2 retrace of the previous move for the swing to be valid (fibbable)".

So far, this seems to be the case. Also, somewhere Skunny stated that after a fib is completed and there are no more uncompleted fibs on his chart that he waits for "price to talk to him" before drawing the new fib. I personally think he is waiting for the retrace to a certain point before he re-fibs. I can't be positive what that point is for him, but for me (so far) it is a penetration of the old 61.8 (which is a 38.2 retrace) inner fib. I am anxious to here see more vhands testing on this. Could be a retrace to 50 line also.........once I am certain of this retrace point, I think I will have a concrete, tradeable system!

Anyone else see it this way???
  • #1,927
  • Jan 14, 2008 9:30am Jan 14, 2008 9:30am
Quoting Pipskateer
Dude, I am more than happy to kick YOUR butt or anyone else's if it helps!
Sheesh I am glad for it! you are going to need a big boot! I can be as blind as bat and stubborn as a mule smart as one most days too!

hehehe I am so used to trading a triangle, a few straight lines and a coupla candles that my "clever" brain got some new info and more lines and starts thinking it has it allllll figured out and grabs the wheel of the car because he is driving now!! he has been drinking.

meanwhile, my poor p and L is screaming in the back seat, white knuckled as the car swerves,crashes a guard rail and goes flying off a cliff!

all the while My "smart" brain is laughing manically looking at a chart, calculating angles and drawing a million fibs having No clue what is going on but pretty confidant because it seems pretty ingenious..

Mr. normal trading is just sitting in the passenger seat wild eyed, shouting at the brain

" hello?? memner me? I work you buffoon! I never didn't work what the heck are you doing??? Don';t scrap me modify me!!! eeediot ....AHHHhhhhhh"

so THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU.

My meditation is sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. hehehe aw man learning is fun.

Sizz
  • #1,928
  • Jan 14, 2008 9:36am Jan 14, 2008 9:36am
Quoting lowell
My 2 pips: Penetration is penetration...........a valid trigger on any TF unless it is bad data (conflicting data from several platforms).

These charts you've posted, (Post # 1923) illustrate the main problem I have run into while testing fibs. Some fibs have penetration of both the 0 and 100 lines. Which to me says they were drawn in the wrong place. Why? I don't think the swing is valid.............yet.

When to draw a new fib?

I have a working theory that states:

"In order for a swing on any TF to be fibbable, one must wait for at least a 38.2 retrace of the previous move for the swing to be valid (fibbable)".

So far, this seems to be the case. Also, somewhere Skunny stated that after a fib is completed and there are no more uncompleted fibs on his chart that he waits for "price to talk to him" before drawing the new fib. I personally think he is waiting for the retrace to a certain point before he re-fibs. I can't be positive what that point is for him, but for me (so far) it is a penetration of the old 38.2 inner fib. I am anxious to here see more vhands testing on this. Could be a retrace to 50 line also.........once I am certain of this retrace point, I think I will have a concrete, tradeable system!

Anyone else see it this way???
Absolutely!
Thats how I see it as well and handle it as well. Maybe Skunny can confirm this later. Or give me a penalty.
I traded the GJ and EJ today with heaps of pips... but now nearly all previous fibs are done.
So it's a patience game now to wait for a 38 retrace of the last swing(s) to refib the whole thing.
Fine for me as the week is pipwise pretty much done

anyway.. night all. Sleeping time in this part of the planet.
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #1,929
  • Jan 14, 2008 9:57am Jan 14, 2008 9:57am
Anyone else see it this way???[/quote]


I like that line of thinking.. I know we both have been running not walking in circles trying to figure it out and I have mis fibbed my share.. oh sweet lord have I ever

OK so Lowell test this out here is a "take it as it comes" GU chart as I would spot fib it

first chart no measuring just looking second one...doing some meddling

also the blue fib who knows about thoughts? I am trying to unlearn and simplify.

That poke on the red a pierce or just the swing low. I feel pipskateers boot already also I see a big boy over all of these.

Sizz
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gufibs#2.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,930
  • Jan 14, 2008 10:02am Jan 14, 2008 10:02am
Quoting sizzler
Anyone else see it this way???

I like that line of thinking.. I know we both have been running not walking in circles trying to figure it out and I have mis fibbed my share.. oh sweet lord have I ever

OK so Lowell test this out here is a "take it as it comes" GU chart as I would spot fib it

first chart no measuring just looking second one...doing some meddling

also the blue fib who knows about thoughts? I am trying to unlearn and simplify.

That poke on the red a pierce or just the swing low. I feel pipskateers boot already also I see a big boy over all of these.

Sizz[/quote]

Sadly, I cannot do any testing for at least another 10 days, when I am home at my computer. Don't think I better clutter up my father-in-laws computer with MT4, vhands and charts............lol. He thinks I'm nuts anyway.
  • #1,931
  • Jan 14, 2008 10:14am Jan 14, 2008 10:14am
Quoting Islander
Nice chart and I agree totally about watching GU and UJ - they are the pairs that create the GJ cross and by seeing which is causing GJs move we can use that pairs S & R to anticipate GJs reaction...
Hi Islander. Glad to see I'm not the only one doing this. Another thought is avoiding negative swap. If Cable is saying go short, we could look for a confirmed UJ break for a trade to go long.

Jon
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #1,932
  • Jan 14, 2008 10:20am Jan 14, 2008 10:20am
Sizz[/quote]

Sadly, I cannot do any testing for at least another 10 days, when I am home at my computer. Don't think I better clutter up my father-in-laws computer with MT4, vhands and charts............lol. He thinks I'm nuts anyway. [/quote]

hehehe Crikey... well that being said do either of those charts I post illustrate anything?

I am trying to understand

so... go back look for last swing high/low then look for obvious retrace in there and use the resistance point as the 0 or 100 and go from there?
  • #1,933
  • Edited 10:24am Jan 14, 2008 10:21am | Edited 10:24am
Quoting Pipskateer
The problem I see is that what may appear to be a "BREAK" (full candle closure) on one TF, may only be a "PENETRATION" (wick only) on a higher TF. So, what do we do in a case like this?? Go Short? or Go Long? Both?

Here is a pic of the GU H1 and another pic of the same fib pull from the M15:

Pipskateer,

I'm inclined to go with Lowell on this:

Quote
My 2 pips: Penetration is penetration...........a valid trigger on any TF unless it is bad data (conflicting data from several platforms).

This line of thought has been working for me as well.
  • #1,934
  • Jan 14, 2008 10:29am Jan 14, 2008 10:29am
Quoting sizzler
Sizz
Sadly, I cannot do any testing for at least another 10 days, when I am home at my computer. Don't think I better clutter up my father-in-laws computer with MT4, vhands and charts............lol. He thinks I'm nuts anyway. [/quote]

hehehe Crikey... well that being said do either of those charts I post illustrate anything?

I am trying to understand

so... go back look for last swing high/low then look for obvious retrace in there and use the resistance point as the 0 or 100 and go from there?[/quote]


Ok, let me rephrase:

Doesn't matter if the swing you are fibbing is a retrace or not.........

For a swing to be fibbable we must make sure the particular hi/lo we want to fib, has a small retrace following it....at least 38.2 or maybe 50, BEFORE we can fib the swing. I'm almost positive that Skunny doesn't fib a move until there is a significant retrace of THAT move. Make sense?
  • #1,935
  • Jan 14, 2008 10:37am Jan 14, 2008 10:37am
Also something Skunny said waaaaay back after I posted a EurAud chart sticks in my mind.
I had posted a small TF fib BEFORE there was a 38 retrace and it worked. BUT.........Skunny said something to the effect that price was too close to my 0 line or something like that.
  • #1,936
  • Jan 14, 2008 10:40am Jan 14, 2008 10:40am
Quoting DXTrade
Absolutely!
Thats how I see it as well and handle it as well. Maybe Skunny can confirm this later. Or give me a penalty.
I traded the GJ and EJ today with heaps of pips... but now nearly all previous fibs are done.
So it's a patience game now to wait for a 38 retrace of the last swing(s) to refib the whole thing.
Fine for me as the week is pipwise pretty much done

anyway.. night all. Sleeping time in this part of the planet.
DXTrade & Lowell...

Thanks for sharing this idea. I had not been watching for any specific retrace.

To be honest....last week was great for me.....doubled my real-money practice account.

I was trading "in the zone".....I came close to trading "perfect" save for a few dumb moves on my part. I was walking fibs all over....seeing completed cycles.....heck.....at one point I was placing trades off 1 & 2 candle formations and nailing pips.

Today was weird.....took some losses....moves didn't flow the way I saw last week.....why??....

1) Psychology....moved from my real-money small account to my bigger account?

2) There is still some sort of PA flow pattern that is not yet clear? Skunny did say, " It is entirely possible to trade perfectly....There is a repeating pattern in all markets that only a few know about." Just wonder if this repeating pattern is more than the 138-move.....is there a bigger weekly or daily cycle that moves in waves?.....Last week I was catchin 'em....today I was going against...?

Is it like that optical illusion picture of the pretty lady and ugly lady and depending on how you look at it, you see one or the other??

3) Did I just have too much "Captain" in me from last night? (lol)

Anyway......I will test the specificity of Lowell & DXTrades ideas.....going to walk away (per my trade rules) and come back later with a clear head.
  • #1,937
  • Jan 14, 2008 10:49am Jan 14, 2008 10:49am
Quoting moneymagnet
i didnt take this, just learning but it looks perfect i think. any comments?

WELCOME TIM!!!!!!

On behalf of me and all others. I think we...I mean ole skunny is on to something here!!!!


Daniel
  • #1,938
  • Jan 14, 2008 10:51am Jan 14, 2008 10:51am
Quoting Brunite
DXTrade & Lowell...

Thanks for sharing this idea. I had not been watching for any specific retrace.

To be honest....last week was great for me.....doubled my real-money practice account.

I was trading "in the zone".....I came close to trading "perfect" save for a few dumb moves on my part. I was walking fibs all over....seeing completed cycles.....heck.....at one point I was placing trades off 1 & 2 candle formations and nailing pips.

Today was weird.....took some losses....moves didn't flow the way I saw last week.....why??....

1) Psychology....moved from my real-money small account to my bigger account?

2) There is still some sort of PA flow pattern that is not yet clear? Skunny did say, " It is entirely possible to trade perfectly....There is a repeating pattern in all markets that only a few know about." Just wonder if this repeating pattern is more than the 138-move.....is there a bigger weekly or daily cycle that moves in waves?.....Last week I was catchin 'em....today I was going against...?

Is it like that optical illusion picture of the pretty lady and ugly lady and depending on how you look at it, you see one or the other??

3) Did I just have too much "Captain" in me from last night? (lol)

Anyway......I will test the specificity of Lowell & DXTrades ideas.....going to walk away (per my trade rules) and come back later with a clear head.
I could be completely off base here but check this.......

Did the fibs that worked have at least a certain level of retrace..........say 38.2 or 50 and you subconsiously recognized it?

Did the fibs that didn't work, NOT have this level of retrace?

You should easily be able to go back and check this with the fibs you traded. REMEMBER THIS (I paraphrase)..........the fib tool IF applied properly will take away any element of discretion .
  • #1,939
  • Edited 11:09am Jan 14, 2008 10:55am | Edited 11:09am
Quoting lowell
Sadly, I cannot do any testing for at least another 10 days, when I am home at my computer. Don't think I better clutter up my father-in-laws computer with MT4, vhands and charts............lol. He thinks I'm nuts anyway.
hehehe Crikey... well that being said do either of those charts I post illustrate anything?

I am trying to understand

so... go back look for last swing high/low then look for obvious retrace in there and use the resistance point as the 0 or 100 and go from there?[/quote]


Ok, let me rephrase:

Doesn't matter if the swing you are fibbing is a retrace or not.........

For a swing to be fibbable we must make sure the particular hi/lo we want to fib, has a small retrace following it....at least 38.2 or maybe 50, BEFORE we can fib the swing. I'm almost positive that Skunny doesn't fib a move until there is a significant retrace of THAT move. Make sense?[/quote]


This is fun! ok I am going to post two charts one... my understand of what you are saying 3 actually two down on up both taking the swing then only completing the swing after a retrace I think.

I hate bottom to top. Fyi. lemme know joe

Sizz

edit i funked up GU motown style... I didn;t take the FIRST resistance of the move I took the purrty one. I will leave the chart up for reference now it look right


also look at how price reacts to breaking 0 .... that would be a confirmation... I would swing then wait and after a lower dip and a run uip feel pretty good about life as that is how price IME reacts to good s/r in the EU chart hits stops clusters for an attack pierces then runs away like something that runs away.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: uj382.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu382.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu382correction.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #1,940
  • Jan 14, 2008 10:57am Jan 14, 2008 10:57am
Quoting Forex It
Sorry not real sure which you mean GBP JPY is at 210 ish as your chart your price you ask about is 109 ish. Just not sure we are on same track.

Sorry for last post I meant GBP JPY

Well, just to inject my opinion ( or rear end) whichever you prefer, I know how it seeks the 138 target but can bleed through the standard fib retracment levels, so I am guessing the turnaround could very well occur at the 138 which is 109.70 area. Hope this clears it up. Just my observation of P/A over the past year

Daniel
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