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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #8,721
  • Jan 11, 2008 11:39am Jan 11, 2008 11:39am
Quoting raczekfx
actually I was stopped out for a loss on yen crosses overnight...
this choppy market, we have for the last few days kills many trades unless you're scalping off 15min... (not a recommendation..)

agreed,
It is even harder to hold long term when i see my profits keep getting eroded.
I'm holding my gj short though as I see at least a retest of lows.
Lowered my position but increased the size of stop. to try a be in on a run low which i think is coming. could be wrong of course.
  • #8,722
  • Jan 11, 2008 11:46am Jan 11, 2008 11:46am
Quoting rustyjeff
agreed,
It is even harder to hold long term when i see my profits keep getting eroded.
I'm holding my gj short though as I see at least a retest of lows.
Lowered my position but increased the size of stop. to try a be in on a run low which i think is coming. could be wrong of course.
from my limited experience I can say that in sideways moving market you stay out unless you're good on short TF. When the trend picks up again, you can start scaling in when opportunities present themselves.. and as Mike had said, best probabilities exist on retests of broken ppz ( so grandma can get in as SL put it..)
  • #8,723
  • Jan 11, 2008 11:53am Jan 11, 2008 11:53am
Quoting raczekfx
from my limited experience I can say that in sideways moving market you stay out unless you're good on short TF. When the trend picks up again, you can start scaling in when opportunities present themselves.. and as Mike had said, best probabilities exist on retests of broken ppz ( so grandma can get in as SL put it..)

thanks Racze,
my inexperience showing through. At least i lowered my total risk to play. 0.5%..
  • #8,724
  • Jan 11, 2008 1:24pm Jan 11, 2008 1:24pm
Quoting raczekfx
now, wouldn't it be nice end a day like this....?
Dunno as long as EURGBP doesn't give up I'd rather stick to EUR for selling USD. And then in turn - if EURJPY is to fall more => USDJPY is even better yet.

And if GBPUSD is going up, who needs to outperform to make GJ go lower?

All signs point to....who?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #8,725
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:25pm Jan 11, 2008 2:25pm
just posting a couple of things i'm watching/find interesting.
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  • #8,726
  • Jan 11, 2008 11:28pm Jan 11, 2008 11:28pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Well I already mentioned the GBPUSD exception because I feel that one may have the chance of actually TURNING the trend.

The others may or not have worked for a WHILE(and for really decent profit, sure), but I don't believe they "turned the trend".
The whole idea of trading with the trend is not to let go / not HAVING to let go that soon.

I want to illustrate what I mean with a quickly slopped together USDCAD chart. Obviously this is just a 10 minute piece of work and leaves out tons and tons of addons, reversal setups and tricky bits with counter-setups that "could" have kicked you out(plus it's all hindsight curve fitting etc pp).

This is all part of me trying to change my thinking into a more coherent "trend" idea, because as it turns out, during the main trend phase most "oh no a reversal!" setups end up simply being crushed a few bars or a retrace fib later, one way or another.


Other charts tell a similiar story. Of course pairs aren't always IN the trending phase, but the whole point is to constantly pretend they are, so that when they DO go there, you're riding the waves, literally
Actually my exit method is only 1- 3 bars after Price broke PB.
So in my opinion it is OK if I trade PB that counter trend.
like USD-CAD weekly chart there is PB on 2007-11-04, if your exit on bar 3 you get around 500 pips.


Do you trade if your exit method is 1-3 bars like me?
example :
Let say that the trend is down and there is PB with very long nose and Sitting with a lot of confluence (fibonanci, support, pivot, etc).
Price broke upper PB. It can be said an 'A' Trade. the only problem is the trend is Down.
Do you trade this set up, let say your exit method is 1-3 bars. or you only trade set up that have same direction with trend? because you want to avoid fail PB just like Gold & Silver.
  • #8,727
  • Jan 12, 2008 6:50am Jan 12, 2008 6:50am
Quoting rustyjeff
just posting a couple of things i'm watching/find interesting.

I see my blue ribbon campaign is catching on
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #8,728
  • Jan 12, 2008 6:59am Jan 12, 2008 6:59am
Quoting jatis
Actually my exit method is only 1- 3 bars after Price broke PB.
So in my opinion it is OK if I trade PB that counter trend.
like USD-CAD weekly chart there is PB on 2007-11-04, if your exit on bar 3 you get around 500 pips.

Do you trade if your exit method is 1-3 bars like me?
example :
Let say that the trend is down and there is PB with very long nose and Sitting with a lot of confluence (fibonanci, support, pivot, etc).
Price broke upper PB. It can be said an 'A' Trade. the only problem is the trend is Down.
Do you trade this set up, let say your exit method is 1-3 bars. or you only trade set up that have same direction with trend? because you want to avoid fail PB just like Gold & Silver.
Well I am trying to change a bit more over into avoiding setting too near targets / fixed close out points. Price should say when to exit, not me, etc pp.

As for the question I'm afraid there's no satisfying answer as with discretion based trading as I'd say: "depends".

In general I think you can't go very wrong avoiding counter-trend setups.
Obviously you can't have either wins or losses from a situation you don't utilize.
If you know from your own bottom line / backtesting that taking "both sides" works out / that counter-trend setups produce more net profit than loss, then obviously what works works.

I'm just saying, in order to keep it simple and perhaps for an added bonus if just starting to learn stuff, it'd be wise to only trade "one way" as you also only have to look at the chart one way, too, then.
It's just a different probability and target logic.

With the trend - how far can it go(*points at USDCAD chart*)
Against the trend - oh no, at which point is there going to be a sudden surge against me as the trend resumes

To each his own obviously, I'm just saying which side is increasingly feeling better to be on.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #8,729
  • Jan 13, 2008 4:41pm Jan 13, 2008 4:41pm
Quoting raczekfx
now, wouldn't it be nice end a day like this....?
what i understand is that you took a short in a weekly beob and close in this daily pb. Is this correct or i am wrong?

thanks in advance.
  • #8,730
  • Jan 13, 2008 5:34pm Jan 13, 2008 5:34pm
Quoting giraia_br
what i understand is that you took a short in a weekly beob and close in this daily pb. Is this correct or i am wrong?

thanks in advance.
yes, I no longer have short cable positions. We may see another attempt to test 1.94 area but my bias has changed after boe kept the rates..
  • #8,731
  • Jan 13, 2008 6:47pm Jan 13, 2008 6:47pm
Quoting raczekfx
yes, I no longer have short cable positions. We may see another attempt to test 1.94 area but my bias has changed after boe kept the rates..
and you take a long on broke of the pin or only closed the positions?

thanks
  • #8,732
  • Jan 13, 2008 7:23pm Jan 13, 2008 7:23pm
Quoting giraia_br
and you take a long on broke of the pin or only closed the positions?

thanks
I took tiny long on 1hr PB break after price bounced off 100ema on weekly.
  • #8,733
  • Jan 13, 2008 8:13pm Jan 13, 2008 8:13pm
FYI,

TBH could be a trigger here,

Regards

RBS
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  • #8,734
  • Jan 13, 2008 8:26pm Jan 13, 2008 8:26pm
Sorry,

This is S&P #EPH8

Regards

RBS
  • #8,735
  • Jan 13, 2008 11:00pm Jan 13, 2008 11:00pm
  •  w_z
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: hand over them pips | 61 Posts
Here are a few things i'm going to trade

Eurusd

Long if price breaks above the horizontal line

Gbpjpy

I'm going to trade the break. in this case, i'm expecting price to break lower

Cadjpy

I'm already in a short position here. If price breaks below the red line, i'm adding to position.
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  • #8,736
  • Jan 14, 2008 5:55am Jan 14, 2008 5:55am
Price broke consolidation zone and made a pullback and gave us some kind of pin bar at ppz, i shorted at break of pin and now i have stop at +4, free ride..will be closing soon anyway..lol

Matty
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  • #8,737
  • Jan 14, 2008 9:04am Jan 14, 2008 9:04am
Still not to late to go short UJ Wiz (-; end this month figure it will be around 103 ish
Kjellik74
  • #8,738
  • Jan 14, 2008 9:23am Jan 14, 2008 9:23am
Quoting Matiasfx
Price broke consolidation zone and made a pullback and gave us some kind of pin bar at ppz, i shorted at break of pin and now i have stop at +4, free ride..will be closing soon anyway..lol

Matty
Hey Mat, glad to see you're coming along after joining me on the light side of the pin bar force ;p

Don't charts look so much nicer without 12 stochastics on them?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #8,739
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:13pm Jan 14, 2008 3:13pm
i hope that means downwards..

i also think so

yes - now i am sure it will


anybody??
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  • #8,740
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:16pm Jan 14, 2008 3:16pm
Quoting kjellik74
Still not to late to go short UJ Wiz (-; end this month figure it will be around 103 ish
I WAS short but I got shaken out for a very small gain on a spike up late Friday.
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