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  • #1,401
  • Jan 13, 2008 6:28pm Jan 13, 2008 6:28pm
can anyone tell me what they think of the usd/cad pair? Just look at that setup
  • #1,402
  • Jan 13, 2008 6:51pm Jan 13, 2008 6:51pm
Quoting doughboi
can anyone tell me what they think of the usd/cad pair? Just look at that setup

I dont trade this pair but from the looks of the Daily chart it has made a bounce, and If you pull a retracement fib from this downtrend its been in you can see it has found support off this retracement fib and is at a key resistance point to try and break from the downtrend.The answer to its next direction is in the Intraday of Friday and if its levels support price. If they fail the resistance is too much at this point and you could see it begin to trickle back down to the retracement levels. If they hold then pressure will continue on the high of the retracement fib.
Keep an eye on the price of oil for USD/CAD.
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  • #1,403
  • Jan 13, 2008 7:19pm Jan 13, 2008 7:19pm
sold at 1.0200,....there is HEAVY resistence here, my tp for this is at 1.0120

at that level we would be around the 61.8 from recent swing upwards.....then i expect a retest from that point to the resistence.

according to my analysis......

take profit should be reached by mid london session. then from new york upwards back at resistance level or maybe even higher.
  • #1,404
  • Jan 13, 2008 7:19pm Jan 13, 2008 7:19pm
Quoting Bobokus
I dont trade this pair but from the looks of the Daily chart it has made a bounce, and If you pull a retracement fib from this downtrend its been in you can see it has found support off this retracement fib and is at a key resistance point to try and break from the downtrend.The answer to its next direction is in the Intraday of Friday and if its levels support price. If they fail the resistance is too much at this point and you could see it begin to trickle back down to the retracement levels. If they hold then pressure will continue on the high of the retracement fib.
Keep an eye on the price of oil for USD/CAD.
thank you
  • #1,405
  • Jan 13, 2008 8:07pm Jan 13, 2008 8:07pm
Hey Bo,

I was wondering if you could take a look at the EUR/USD pair. Last Thu was a huge day for the pair with about a 176 pip range from low to high. That makes a huge set of intraday fibs for Friday. Friday it moved slightly above the high moving the intraday fib high up to the new level.

My question is would you still leave those huge intraday fibs in place since no target has been reached, or would you tone them down a bit based on the trading Friday and this week? I know the normal thing to do would be to leave them as-is, but it seems that huge spike was probably caused by news or something out of the ordinary. Just wondering your view.

Bruce
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  • #1,406
  • Jan 13, 2008 8:25pm Jan 13, 2008 8:25pm
Quoting brucehvn
Hey Bo,

I was wondering if you could take a look at the EUR/USD pair. Last Thu was a huge day for the pair with about a 176 pip range from low to high. That makes a huge set of intraday fibs for Friday. Friday it moved slightly above the high moving the intraday fib high up to the new level.

My question is would you still leave those huge intraday fibs in place since no target has been reached, or would you tone them down a bit based on the trading Friday and this week? I know the normal thing to do would be to leave them as-is, but it seems that huge spike was probably caused by news or something out of the ordinary. Just wondering your view.

Bruce
For today i would be apt to look at just the movement of friday as an Intraday fib and if the levels get broken through just pull the low back to the low of thursday because most likely you will be looking for a bounce if the Intraday of fridays fib levels break and indicate short from there I would follow it to the levels of the fib pulled from the high of friday to the low of thursday and take the bounce off those levels.
Another option is to leave you Intraday across both thursday and friday then pull a swing on the movement of just friday by itself.
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  • #1,407
  • Jan 13, 2008 11:00pm Jan 13, 2008 11:00pm
Ok, Ive got Vtrades up and running and I'm doing some backtesting. The tip about not moving the fibs until a TP is hit is golden, but I have one concern that eats up any profits I manage to accumulate. Position entry and exit. I find that I keep entering on the wrong bounce, or at the end of a move after a retrace that gets exhausted. Then I have a rather difficult drawdown. My direction choosing is mostly correct. Maybe 50.5% : But the drawdown scares me out and I exit because I think I've seen enough for it to go the other way, I bail. Then..... It moves. Is that a time issue or am I missing something?!

By the way. Thanks Bobo. I've never seen this much consistency in my trading, I'm really siked about it.
  • #1,408
  • Jan 13, 2008 11:13pm Jan 13, 2008 11:13pm
Quoting jarcrocker
Ok, Ive got Vtrades up and running and I'm doing some backtesting. The tip about not moving the fibs until a TP is hit is golden, but I have one concern that eats up any profits I manage to accumulate. Position entry and exit. I find that I keep entering on the wrong bounce, or at the end of a move after a retrace that gets exhausted. Then I have a rather difficult drawdown. My direction choosing is mostly correct. Maybe 50.5% : But the drawdown scares me out and I exit because I think I've seen enough for it to go the other way, I bail. Then..... It moves. Is that a time issue or am I missing something?!

By the way. Thanks Bobo. I've never seen this much consistency in my trading, I'm really siked about it.
Your missing link may be price action at the point it tests support or resistance,and what you want to focus on and remember if your at the novice level and trying to learn it, in an uptrend buy the dips only, in a down trend only sell the rally's.Dont worry about counter trend trades or retracements Intraday just let those go for now.
Start at a point that the currency goes into either an uptrend or downtrend and just watch with Vhands for it to test the levels of the previous days Intraday levels and only go (with the trend trades.) Look for a level to be tested and go with the candle that opens outside the Intraday levels after a test or the action from the candles lower highs and lows or higher highs and lows of each candle.
Trust what you see not what you think.
  • #1,409
  • Jan 14, 2008 12:17am Jan 14, 2008 12:17am
Quoting Bobokus
For today i would be apt to look at just the movement of friday as an Intraday fib and if the levels get broken through just pull the low back to the low of thursday because most likely you will be looking for a bounce if the Intraday of fridays fib levels break and indicate short from there I would follow it to the levels of the fib pulled from the high of friday to the low of thursday and take the bounce off those levels.
Another option is to leave you Intraday across both thursday and friday then pull a swing on the movement of just friday by itself.
Well, sure enough, leaving the EUR/USD intraday fibs as they were, in this hour alone the price has almost hit the long T1.
  • #1,410
  • Jan 14, 2008 12:38am Jan 14, 2008 12:38am
Quoting brucehvn
Well, sure enough, leaving the EUR/USD intraday fibs as they were, in this hour alone the price has almost hit the long T1.
lol..when you asked about eur/usd , i took a look and was like, this is looking like a nice buy!!!!, momentum was up, it had nice support on daily 5 sma high, my custom indicator was signaling a buy, retracement looked about finished as it found good support....DANG!!!!!!!!!!!!!should of tooken it!!!!!

anyway, i think im going to hold on to my usd/cad short for a while for a big drop....i will set a 100 pip stop loss, the set up looks to good to take profit for only 80 pips.

GOOD PIPPIN MATE
  • #1,411
  • Jan 14, 2008 2:18am Jan 14, 2008 2:18am
Quoting Bobokus
Start at a point that the currency goes into either an uptrend or downtrend and just watch with Vhands for it to test the levels of the previous days Intraday levels and only go (with the trend trades.)
So did you go long at all?
  • #1,412
  • Jan 14, 2008 2:43am Jan 14, 2008 2:43am
I just exited long Cable with +30
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,413
  • Edited 3:21am Jan 14, 2008 2:56am | Edited 3:21am
Hi Bobokus,

thanks for a great thread. I must say this is probably the most "professional" here in ff.

I've been reading your thread a couple of days now, and even though the basic principle is simple, some questions were left open, like this next one.

Why did you decide to go short on top of grey area, which is supposed to be "non-trading" area?

Ok, found the answer in your later posts. In addition to fibs you obviously use a lot of your cable experience in trading, those trades were a good example of that.

Thanks,
R

Quoting Bobokus
Here is an example of me watching the swing extentions to get me out...hoping for 297 but may have to settle if we stall out here.
  • #1,414
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:05am Jan 14, 2008 3:05am
Quoting Thexder
I just exited long Cable with +30
Thats a great scalp man, were you tempted at all to go short then when it bounced? You could've doubled that...

Does anybody here read/trade Bill Williams?
  • #1,415
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:18am Jan 14, 2008 3:18am
Quoting jicjoc
Thats a great scalp man, were you tempted at all to go short then when it bounced? You could've doubled that...
Lately I've been thinking about a stop and reverse on these M1 exits, and I've monitored the action tonight after I got out - it would have worked out. For now I'm demoing the concept in my head and forward testing visually.

For a while there at the beginning of the trade I thought I was going to have to take a hit, there was no room to move to break even for a while and it was ranging without much structure on the low time frame.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,416
  • Jan 14, 2008 6:43am Jan 14, 2008 6:43am
Quoting jicjoc
So did you go long at all?
That was for the testing he was doing on Vhands
  • #1,417
  • Jan 14, 2008 6:45am Jan 14, 2008 6:45am
Quoting Rocroy
Hi Bobokus,

thanks for a great thread. I must say this is probably the most "professional" here in ff.

I've been reading your thread a couple of days now, and even though the basic principle is simple, some questions were left open, like this next one.

Why did you decide to go short on top of grey area, which is supposed to be "non-trading" area?

Ok, found the answer in your later posts. In addition to fibs you obviously use a lot of your cable experience in trading, those trades were a good example of that.

Thanks,
R
Ill use price action alot if I dont like what I see and exit a trade early sometimes.
  • #1,418
  • Jan 14, 2008 6:58am Jan 14, 2008 6:58am
Price was stuck in a 50 pip range all morning 650-600, just now it looks to have made a short break.
  • #1,419
  • Jan 14, 2008 7:02am Jan 14, 2008 7:02am
And on a certain smaller time frame there was a distinct head & shoulders leading to a break from that consolidation.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,420
  • Jan 14, 2008 7:16am Jan 14, 2008 7:16am
tell me more?
I was up 20pips, now im at break even. Maybe i should exited when it hit T1.

On M1 its still making lower highs. If the next low isnt lower than last low 1.9581 which was T1 also, i'll be exiting
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