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  • #401
  • Jan 12, 2008 2:29am Jan 12, 2008 2:29am
Quoting haniam
Welcome Oromis to the Thread!

Consistently losing is the common of 90-95% of traders. It is a normal stage of the learning curve I guess. The most important thing to take into consideration is Money Management for the moment.

My advice: Don't risk more than you are ready to lose in one trade, else your emotions will take over and you will make, most probably, wrong decisions.

A demo account is the biggest trap that BD offer to beginner traders and they always fell inside. So it is a good step from you to go live, but go slowly in as much low amount as you can until you are comfortable with your emotions, and that is the most difficult part of the 'game'.
Well, let me say that after reading your posts and grinding this head of mine against a wheel I came to the same conclusion as your above advice and I am afraid to say that you have hit the nail exactly on its head...my emotions are killing me.

Yesterday I took 4 trades on E/J on it's way down with micro lots and all four were winners...maybe just got lucky...but my emotions were calm and collective. I will continue this for next week to try to settle the emotions down and was thinking to as my they strengthen to gradually increase my lot size to where my goals have been set. I figure this is easy to monitor as my emotions will tell me exactly when the lot sizes are getting too big

Let's see how next week goes.

Thanks for the advice.
  • #402
  • Jan 12, 2008 2:33am Jan 12, 2008 2:33am
Quoting haniam
I bet they are! They had the ideal conditions to strike again, moving the market in the opposite way first, creating some false breakouts so they can trigger as much Stop orders and Stop losses as they can, by using trader emotions, then going in the opposite way and doing this again, then in the opposite way again. A nice example for GU pair below:

Attachment
Let me just say, that after my four trades yesterday, I decided to step back and simply observe for the remainder of the day and I now look at the market totally different and it was as if I could see how at certain levels the bIG dOGS were working their magic. Made me chuckle a little.

Now the test is going to be to stay out of their traps as much as possible.

Have a good weekend and see you on Monday again.

Oromis
  • #403
  • Jan 14, 2008 12:54am Jan 14, 2008 12:54am
Quoting haniam
While EU is under 1.5, I see two scenarios in the coming weeks. A break of 1.5 will void both scenarios and will open the way to 1.53. I give it a 20% chance.

Scenario1: (In green on the chart)
EU will be maintained under the up trendline and main resistance now @1.4810 and will go down testing 1.4580, if it bounces then retest 1.4650-1.4700. A break will lead to a retest of 1.43 with enough power to break it then going down targeting 1.385 and lower area.

Scenario2: (In yellow on the chart)
A break of 1.4810 will open a retest of the YTDH and give more power to go down but this time to test lower levels @1.3650

In all cases this will not harm the main uptrend and these lows should be considered as a great opportunity to go massively long and the bounce will signal a resume of the uptrend with enough power to break 1.5000

Look at the pattern inside the red circle for a mini illustration of what may happen now.

Only a break of 1.36 may harm the uptrend and reverse to a new downtrend

Attachment
The Break of 1.4810-20 resistance level triggered many Stop orders that took the EU directly to 1.4875-85 resitance.

I expect some consolidation here in the coming 24-48 hours. EU to come back and restest the support now @1.4825, and while it holds, the bounce will open the way to try breaking 1.4885 for a test of 1.4933 and the all times high 1.4966 this week.

The previous mentioned scenario 2 is still in play

An aggressive trade can be to sell another bounce of the resistance adding on a break of 1.4852 for a quick 25-50 pips profit with 20 pips SL.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080114-EU-D1-AM.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #404
  • Jan 14, 2008 2:24am Jan 14, 2008 2:24am
Scalping is going into a trade for few minutes targeting 5-20 pips

Most brokers do not like scalping, but if you put your target >7 pips, they should not be able to object this kind of trading.

We have some nice setups on EU right now for a 10-20 pips easy targets with very small risks.

As you see in the attachement, we can trade the range selling on the top side and buying on the down side targeting the other side with 5 pips SL on the other side of the channel borders and preparing to stop and reverse on channel break.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080114-EU-M1-AM.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #405
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:01am Jan 14, 2008 3:01am
Hello haniam,

Scalp preferably to the upside?
  • #406
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:07am Jan 14, 2008 3:07am
Quoting Oromis
Hello haniam,

Scalp preferably to the upside?
Hi Oromis,

When I am scalping, I do not really care if for up or down. The risk is very limited to 5 to 10 pips max. Don't forget the SL. I just trade the range and get my 10-20 pips. I try to take the maximum trades possible until the range breaks.

This is my way. You choose your way depending on your risk tolerance. Don't forget it's you money you are risking.

Safe trading.

Hani
  • #407
  • Jan 14, 2008 3:26am Jan 14, 2008 3:26am
Quoting haniam
Hi Oromis,

When I am scalping, I do not really care if for up or down. The risk is very limited to 5 to 10 pips max. Don't forget the SL. I just trade the range and get my 10-20 pips. I try to take the maximum trades possible until the range breaks.

This is my way. You choose your way depending on your risk tolerance. Don't forget it's you money you are risking.

Safe trading.

Hani
Oops.Seems we have a break up.
The range scalp trading is over for now.
Scalp position is closed and reversed for a loss of -5 pips and the reverse has already covered the losses.
  • #408
  • Jan 14, 2008 5:27am Jan 14, 2008 5:27am
Quoting haniam
Hi Oromis,

When I am scalping, I do not really care if for up or down. The risk is very limited to 5 to 10 pips max. Don't forget the SL. I just trade the range and get my 10-20 pips. I try to take the maximum trades possible until the range breaks.

This is my way. You choose your way depending on your risk tolerance. Don't forget it's you money you are risking.

Safe trading.

Hani
Ok thanks for the reply...
Would you mind giving me your thoughts on EUR/JPY?
  • #409
  • Jan 14, 2008 6:44am Jan 14, 2008 6:44am
Quoting Oromis
Ok thanks for the reply...
Would you mind giving me your thoughts on EUR/JPY?
EJ is in a down move and today is a sell day for this pair.
But we are far away from the Daily Pivot @160.9, and we can expect a retrace as it is overbought.

We can attempt some small longs now @160.4 adding on a possible retest of 160.15 with 160.7 and 160.9 as target and SL around 159.85

Watch the action price around the targets to determine if you should continue to second target, or close and reverse.
  • #410
  • Jan 14, 2008 8:51am Jan 14, 2008 8:51am
Thanks haniam, appreciate your reply.

EDIT: The 160.90 pivot level you are referring to, is that the pivot based off GMT +10?
  • #411
  • Jan 14, 2008 9:20am Jan 14, 2008 9:20am
Quoting haniam
You can try forexmentor.com
They mainly base their trading on pivot levels and mid levels.
I think you may have to pay a fee to access the important areas of this method.

Hi Bakuli,

Returning to your request about a site that can help in understanding more how to trade with pivot levels, fxnation site posts every day around 6 GMT a daily video about the four main currencies and possible good entry points using pivot levels.

It's free to become a member and access these market previous.

Can teach you a lot.

Wish you a great learning experience,

Hani
  • #412
  • Jan 14, 2008 12:19pm Jan 14, 2008 12:19pm
Quote
Hi Bakuli,

Returning to your request about a site that can help in understanding more how to trade with pivot levels, fxnation site posts every day around 6 GMT a daily video about the four main currencies and possible good entry points using pivot levels.

It's free to become a member and access these market previous.

Can teach you a lot.

Wish you a great learning experience,

Hani

Hi Hani,

Thank you so much. for the link. Very much appreciated .

Bakuli
  • #413
  • Jan 15, 2008 4:01am Jan 15, 2008 4:01am
Dear Hani,

I have learned a lot of theoretical information about currency trading from official classes about forex, I have than started a real account I have steadily grown the account by 40% profit in two months and than like a lot of people in forex suffered from "Emotional Controlling Myself" & blown the account to 40%. While I was away from forex for about 3~4 months, I started to think about what I did and how I could do better. 4 main questions happened in my mind that I would be pleased if you help me with your ideas:

  1. My first problem was: I didn't know what was the market's idea (as a whole) -was it bull or bear. To explain it more, How could we have an up to date idea of where the market is heading? I used the news in " forexfactory.com" BUT a lot of times it wasn't acting for the news, sometimes good & bad news came out together and made a complex situation. I used technical indicators BUT they were giving a view of only previous data. I hadn't any tool to help me find out that: "Right now there is rally with Bulls or Bears?" or "Is the rally over or not" Than I came out with the idea that for example if there is a rally than it would be more than x pips & to filter anything under it BUT I couldn't identify the x pips for a currency pair like eur/usd. I think if by some how we could understand what is going in the market than we could know which one are stronger BULLS or BEARS. Could you inform me how this is possible? OR at most am I thinking right or not?
  2. Could you inform me on how are the BIG winners thinking in this market (mostly Forex)? You know, I have a problem about when to enter & when to exit the market !!!! To me it is really NOT obvious. Could you help me.
  3. Also could I have your thought about the central bank powers in intervention in their currency? Is it by straight or by changing economic parameters (that would take time)?
  4. Once more, is there any tools that could help us find out that there is a rally starting or NOT?

Thanks for your valuable time,
Best Regards,
Mohammad Bidabadi

Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #414
  • Jan 15, 2008 5:25am Jan 15, 2008 5:25am
Quoting haniam
The principle of 'Cut you losses and let your profit ride' apply when the market is trending.

We are now in a ranging market, at least for EU, where the prices are trying to push up, but the bears are being able to easily gain the losses.

This principle will not work well in such conditions, and you will often get stopped for a loss. You would better take progressive partial profit then reenter at a better price in the same direction of the first trade until you get out by hitting your target or your (trailed) stop loss.

This will suppose that you are aware of the Support and Resistance levels, and that you are able to follow the market from close and frequently, else you may be out of the trade too soon.
Just re-read this and as with Bakuli, I have been battling with the same thing. We trade in a constantly changing market and we need to teach ourselves to adjust our strategy with the market and not hope that it will adjust to our strategy. Thanks for this Hani...
  • #415
  • Jan 15, 2008 11:11am Jan 15, 2008 11:11am
Quoting khanderoo
Dear Hani,

I have learned a lot of theoretical information about currency trading from official classes about forex, I have then started a real account I have steadily grown the account by 40% profit in two months and than like a lot of people in forex suffered from "Emotional Controlling Myself" & blown the account to 40%. While I was away from forex for about 3~4 months, I started to think about what I did and how I could do better. 4 main questions happened in my mind that I would be pleased if you help me with your ideas:

  1. My first problem was: I didn't know what was the market's idea (as a whole) -was it bull or bear. To explain it more, How could we have an up to date idea of where the market is heading? I used the news in " forexfactory.com" BUT a lot of times it wasn't acting for the news, sometimes good & bad news came out together and made a complex situation. I used technical indicators BUT they were giving a view of only previous data. I hadn't any tool to help me find out that: "Right now there is rally with Bulls or Bears?" or "Is the rally over or not" Than I came out with the idea that for example if there is a rally than it would be more than x pips & to filter anything under it BUT I couldn't identify the x pips for a currency pair like eur/usd. I think if by some how we could understand what is going in the market than we could know which one are stronger BULLS or BEARS. Could you inform me how this is possible? OR at most am I thinking right or not?
  2. Could you inform me on how are the BIG winners thinking in this market (mostly Forex)? You know, I have a problem about when to enter & when to exit the market !!!! To me it is really NOT obvious. Could you help me.
  3. Also could I have your thought about the central bank powers in intervention in their currency? Is it by straight or by changing economic parameters (that would take time)?
  4. Once more, is there any tools that could help us find out that there is a rally starting or NOT?

Thanks for your valuable time,
Best Regards,
Mohammad Bidabadi

Welcome khanderoo to the thread,

While this thread is not intended to teach trading techniques and forex 'principles', I will try to give you some matters so you can search more about it and continue your learning curve. And getting a big return on your balance then losing it and more is part of it.

Technical indicators
As you say, technical indicators give a view of previous data. But the use of them relies on the fact that this data is the result of human behavior, which tend to repeat itself in a similar way in the future. This how these technical indicators may help you to take trade decision. It will depend on your personal way of reading it and interpreting it that will make it useful or useless.
The same one that will be useful to a trader will be useless to others.

Bulls and Bears
Well in few words, bull market is a market that is trending up and a bear market is the opposite.
EU market is a bull one since a long time, in the general view, so the best way of trading it is to only buy, but not to buy in a random way. You can read about this in many previous posts on this thread.

BUT, if you are a day trader, you will often see the market turning from bull to bear, depending on many factors including trader’s sentiment upon a news release for example, and this is why it is more dangerous and difficult to be a day trader when a trader has no important experience yet.

There's lot of mini trends inside the big main trend, and in the general view, they are called retracement.

BIG winners thinking
They do not day trade all the time.
They sit and watch the market.
They make trading plan.
They wait for the market to come to them, and then they execute their plan.
They trade with discipline and patience.

Central bank powers
They are the guaranty of the currency, so they have an 'absolute' power over it. They can print (Directly or indirectly) as much money as they find needed and so devaluate the currency. They can play on interest rate and move the currency a lot. They can just say some word as 'vigilance' in a meeting and market will go crazy. They can be 'dovish' or 'hawkish'. But all this will not affect BIG winners, as you can expect.

Tools that could help us find out that there is a rally starting or NOT
Many of these tools are used in this thread by me for the trades that I post live in this thread with many explanations.

Hope this helps,

Hani
  • #416
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:50pm Jan 16, 2008 12:50pm
Quoting haniam
While EU is under 1.5, I see two scenarios in the coming weeks. A break of 1.5 will void both scenarios and will open the way to 1.53. I give it a 20% chance.

Scenario1: (In green on the chart)
EU will be maintained under the up trendline and main resistance now @1.4810 and will go down testing 1.4580, if it bounces then retest 1.4650-1.4700. A break will lead to a retest of 1.43 with enough power to break it then going down targeting 1.385 and lower area.

Scenario2: (In yellow on the chart)
A break of 1.4810 will open a retest of the YTDH and give more power to go down but this time to test lower levels @1.3650

In all cases this will not harm the main uptrend and these lows should be considered as a great opportunity to go massively long and the bounce will signal a resume of the uptrend with enough power to break 1.5000

Look at the pattern inside the red circle for a mini illustration of what may happen now.

Only a break of 1.36 may harm the uptrend and reverse to a new downtrend

Attachment
The upper ascending trendline has contained the bull move as expected.

The BD strike again, getting the EU down more than 200 pips in less than 2 hours.

More moves like this are to be expected, and the only real thing that is still maintaining the USD as these high levels is the speculation about a possible 75 pts rate cut.

The rate decision announcement will give a decisive turning for the dollar, and unless it manages to break 1.5, the USD may go to low levels very fast.

Can you see how the 'M' pattern under construction looks like the one on the left side of the chart, but in a much bigger size? We may have a double top confirmation in the coming weeks. A final decisive retest of 1.49xx levels is still expected in the coming 2 weeks.

Scenario 2 is still in play.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080116-EU-D1-PM.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #417
  • Jan 16, 2008 5:18pm Jan 16, 2008 5:18pm
Ha, indeed they strike again.
Just woke up to see my long order taken out with force. Yes indeed, they built up the expectation to go long to 1.5000 and then surprise surprise...
  • #418
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:49pm Jan 16, 2008 10:49pm
Indeed the BD strikes again!

Hani, thanks for your assessment of the EURUSD always much appreciated (do you have a crystal ball? LOL! )
I had a buy order yesterday at 1.4750 which was filled and I lost my 50 pips stop loss in a matter of minutes (all this madness happened when I dozed off) ! I will wait to buy again at a better price taking heed of your assessments.
  • #419
  • Jan 17, 2008 12:21am Jan 17, 2008 12:21am
Hi Hani,

Let me say that even if I know you from close, I did not expect to read all about this here.

I finished reading all the thread and I want to thank you for the valubale info and technique you posted over the months. I find them very educative and as Bakuli says in the previous post, do you have a crystal ball or what?

I will be following this thread and the different other ones you mentioned closely.

I rate this thread 5 stars!
  • #420
  • Edited 4:26am Jan 18, 2008 1:39am | Edited 4:26am
PLEASE DO NOT FOLLOW THIS TRADE PLAN AS I AM ONLY POSTING THIS FOR HANI TO COMMENT ON , I AM STILL IN THE LEARNING PROCESS!

Hi Hani

I am posting the following trade plan for EURUSD for your comments to see if its viable.

My daily pivot is 1.4648, S1 is 1.4582 and R1 is 1.4708

Current price is below PL.

Plan A
Sell on bounce off PL at 1.4648, targeting 1.4615 (50 % from PL to S1)
Stop Loss set at 1.4635 (do you think 20 pips stop loss is OK above PL?)
Take 75 % profit at 1.4615 and let the rest run with trailing stop

Plan B
If PL is breached, sell on bounce off 1.4708, targeting 1.4678 level (30 pips)
Stop Loss set at 1.4728and let the rest run with 20 pips trailing stop loss.
Take 75 % profit at 1.4678

Hani,
Please can you give your experienced comments on my trade plans above. I have re-read your thread again to re-learn what I have forgotten.

Thanks
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