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5Min Intraday System

  • #2,921
  • Edited 7:10am Jan 10, 2008 5:51am | Edited 7:10am
Quoting MJurban
hi willem,
thanks again for your help. Its good to see that i'm not the only one with simular problems.
So i seariusly go into the stuff again, study the rules , backtesting .....
Hi Mj

My pleasure.

Please do forward testing as well -with a demo account or micro-lots on a live account.

If you do back testing, go back as far as possible with the chart and use the F12 key on your keyboard (to move the chart forward candle by candle). After some time, you will get used to the price pattern of your favourite pair (mine is the EY at this stage).
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,922
  • Edited 11:29am Jan 10, 2008 9:46am | Edited 11:29am
Right let's look at this @#*&% trade of mine. I think it is necessary to post negative trades so that we can learn from it. Also to show MJ how to read the market and consider all the issues before entering the trade.

This setup looks like the Reverse church formation but the bell tower its way too thin (because of the two big candles - another no-no I ignored). I also entered in no-man's land. This was gambling, MJ! Do you agree? I saw the issues/factors that were against me and I still ignore them. And this is not the first time.

Another issue you should consider (and I've seen this several times) is that market tends to reverse around round the opening of NY/American session. Be very careful and wait for the opening and the News release before entering a trade (if there is a setup). Look at the second chart and you'll see what I mean.

What do I need to do now is to make a printout of this chart and write my notes on it. That is why I do have all the appendixes on page 156. It is reading material that I should read every evening before you go to bed. You should do the same with your rules. Make notes every day (meaning keep a diary) not only of the trades but also of the price actions and movements.

Trading was never easy - you need to work hard at it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20080110 5min trade 1 jep.JPG Size: 86 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008011o eur now.gif Size: 24 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,923
  • Edited 9:25am Jan 11, 2008 9:11am | Edited 9:25am
Just to show you how to evaluate the development of a setup, taking a trade, set a profit target, taaking the 10pips of offer and then starting to evaluate the next setup (because there is already a clear support line - won't get it better that this).

This is more like how Phillip would like us to trade. This is not gambling but reading the charts and the setups.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008011 5min trade 1 jep.JPG Size: 115 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,924
  • Jan 11, 2008 9:22am Jan 11, 2008 9:22am
Just an interesting head and shoulder formation. Ii it was just below the 50MA with 21 coming out of non-trade zone to the downside; then it was a go.

Be on the lookout for price formation like this when you see a possible setup. Making it a more of a high probability setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008011 shs jeg.JPG Size: 95 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,925
  • Jan 11, 2008 10:00am Jan 11, 2008 10:00am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I am using this 5Min intraday strategy with great success on the EurUsd and Gpb/Usd. Three deals max. per day. Open position when the angle of the 50 Simple moving average are greater than 20Degrees and the price retrace back into the zone of the 21 Exponential moving average and the 10 Exponential moving average. Set stoploss at 6 pips plus spread and profit taking at 8-10 pips. Move stoploss to breakeven as soon as 6 pips gain is obtained. Using this strategy is at your own risk. Hope someone will benefit from it.
Phillip,
Is your strategy still effective? FX trading is very new for me and I joined this forum today and find your threads to be informative. Can you advise.
Thanks in advance,
Carnic
  • #2,926
  • Jan 13, 2008 3:50am Jan 13, 2008 3:50am
Just to answer Newtrader's question but also to show people what can happen if one doesn't follow the rules.

Look at the last two days of trading in December 2007 where I did follow My Rules. Not all the trades went to the 10pips profit but I exit the trade when I didn't feel comfortable with the way it develops. The result is a profit at the end of the time (your ultimate goal).

Then in Jan 2008 I tend to ignore some of the rules to test other setups with disasterous results. That was the main reason for the losses.

The second main reasons for the losses was:

I was ignorant. When I had a losser trade, I thought "Well, I do have a SL in place, lets see of the trade can reverse." This is a killer thought - get out AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE with the minimum numer of pips loss. Don't let your lossers run. Get out when the 21MA or SMall resistance/support line is broken.

Just to show you what can happen if you:
1. Don't have written trading plan & rules for this or any trading system
2. If you want to trade almost every setup without proper analises.
3. If you don't understand the system and price movements and just want to trade the setups.
4. If you don't study your favourite pair/s and you jump around between 10pairs (just a possibility - not the reasons for my Jan 2008 results).

This is also to show people a realistic picture of trading. Usually one only see positive results because that is what the sellers of systems want to see. I just want to bring reality into forex trading - welcome to the real world of forex trading. Without proper money management, after a month like Jan 2008, I would have been out of this game by now. But I am still in the game and alive to face another two weeks of trading and learning (you cannot learn this job within a year or two).

Lets see what is going to happen the next two weeks - only trading according My Rules and high probalility setup as explained in My Rules and appendixes on page 156.

I hope it answer a part of Newtrader's question. I know Phillip is very busy with his 4h MACD system (and working very hard at it and assisting other traders in it) and doesn't really have time to trade this system. But he still trade it when he has time.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls 5min trade outcome 200712 ff copy.xls   25 KB | 809 downloads
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,927
  • Jan 14, 2008 12:14pm Jan 14, 2008 12:14pm
Quoting Newtrader
Phillip,
Is your strategy still effective? FX trading is very new for me and I joined this forum today and find your threads to be informative. Can you advise.
Thanks in advance,
Carnic
Hi
Although not many people are participating here it does not mean that the strategy is not effective anymore. It takes a lot of discipline and patience. Some days no trades on certain pairs so it really takes patience. If you can master this 5min you will do well at other strategies as well. People are pulling the trigger to easily.
Phillip
  • #2,928
  • Jan 14, 2008 1:02pm Jan 14, 2008 1:02pm
And the 3 little sisters did it again - just below the 50MA acting as a very nice resistance. It is one of my favourite high probability trade setups.

Entry short and exit levels as indicated.

Conclusion: Wait for the high probability setups as explained and you'll have a much better overall outcome.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008014 3little.gif Size: 27 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,929
  • Edited 2:35pm Jan 14, 2008 1:56pm | Edited 2:35pm
My trade on the 3little sisters on Cable late in the afternoon session - something I don't like to do. And my entry was too early - should have waited for pullback towards 21MA. Daily pivot acted as strong support - reason for early exit. Another reason is the previous two weeks (bad weeks) and the lack of confidence.

And just to show how powerful the 3little sisters on Cable is, there she goes through the pivot line (second chart). If you've entered at the close of the candle where I've entered, the results would have been 9pips profit.

Edit 1: The price went down to 1.9555. So strong is that 3 little sisters price pattern. I didn't want to believe it. Missed out on a nice profit but do you see the anger in my eyes. No, just waiting for the next high probability setup.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008014 5min trade 1a.JPG Size: 87 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008014 5min trade 1c.gif Size: 24 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,930
  • Jan 14, 2008 2:15pm Jan 14, 2008 2:15pm
Quoting Golfer
My trade on the 3little sisters on Cable late in the afternoon session - something I don't like to do. And my entry was too early - should have waited for pullback towards 21MA. Daily pivot acted as strong support - reason for early exit. Another reason is the previous two weeks (bad weeks) and the lack of confidence.

And just to show how powerful the 3little sisters on Cable is, there she goes through the pivot line (second chart). I you've entered at the close of the candle where I've entered, the results would have been 9pips profit.
Well done. I was watching that setup as well but was allready in a 4Hour deal so could not get involved.
  • #2,931
  • Jan 14, 2008 11:25pm Jan 14, 2008 11:25pm
Phillip,

This is a really great trading method. Thank you for showing a way to win in forex trading. Now I understand the concept of "trading pullback in a trend" after reading your first few posts. You've been truely helpful.
Never Trade without a defined risk, never, never, never.
  • #2,932
  • Jan 15, 2008 1:09am Jan 15, 2008 1:09am
Quoting FxGladiator
Phillip,

This is a really great trading method. Thank you for showing a way to win in forex trading. Now I understand the concept of "trading pullback in a trend" after reading your first few posts. You've been truely helpful.
Hi FxG

Just a warm welcome from my side. I hope you will enjoy this system.

Just a few words of advice from my side (sorry to be so arrogant but I just love the system and I don't want you to make the same mistakes I made in the past) (onces you do understand the mechanism of the system you will see what I'm talking about) - just have the necessary patience and discipline. Don't try and trade every single pullback. Only trade the high probability setups and study your favourite pair/s (definitely not 10 of them).

Enjoy the trading.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,933
  • Jan 15, 2008 2:30am Jan 15, 2008 2:30am
Hi Phil, nice system, thanks!

Golfer, thank you for sharing your thoughts.... I have a question to you. I see that you are using the Parabolic indicator in some graphs. Do you use it as confirmation for your trading?
  • #2,934
  • Jan 15, 2008 3:27am Jan 15, 2008 3:27am
Quoting lutitus
Hi Phil, nice system, thanks!

Golfer, thank you for sharing your thoughts.... I have a question to you. I see that you are using the Parabolic indicator in some graphs. Do you use it as confirmation for your trading?
Hi Lut

The Parabolic indicator is used in my 1 minute scalping system (which I don't use very often). Currently I am just testing it and playing around with it on my 5 minute chart.

I don't want to make the system too complicated because it is really a simple system. This system is mainly based on the price movements and not really on indicators other than those on the charts.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,935
  • Jan 15, 2008 3:36am Jan 15, 2008 3:36am
A lot of winning trades in GBP/USD today.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1200389728
Attached Image
  • #2,936
  • Jan 15, 2008 7:43am Jan 15, 2008 7:43am
Quoting lutitus
A lot of winning trades in GBP/USD today.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1200389728
Hi Lut

Wel spotted but be careful. I would like to see that the 21MA acts as support (long trades) or resistance (short trades). Closes of candles on the wrong side of the 21MA is high risk trade setups for me.

I usually look for certain price patterns when price is entering the war zone such as 3 little sisters, ascending/descending triangle formation. You need to read the story (history) behind the setup.

Look at the My Rules and appendixes on page 156 to get an idea. Then develop your approach towards the setups. But look at Phillip's advice/warning regarding pulling the trigger on this page. I've been there and got burned. Like a week or two weeks ago (results posted on this page).

Sorry but I've just put some comments on your chart - take it of leave it. I just don't want you to make the same mistakes I made.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lutitus[1].JPG Size: 81 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,937
  • Jan 15, 2008 8:56am Jan 15, 2008 8:56am
Thanks for your advice, Golfer.

I'm testing this strategy with Laguerre indicator, and it has been good to me. I place a order in this case:

- Long: if Laguerre is at top or getting up and there is a buy signal from Phil
- Short: if Laguere is at bottom or getting down and there is a sell signal from Phil


I read all the 100 first pages of this thread, and now I'm trying to read until this one.
  • #2,938
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:11am Jan 15, 2008 9:11am
Quoting lutitus
Thanks for your advice, Golfer.

I'm testing this strategy with Laguerre indicator, and it has been good to me. I place a order in this case:

- Long: if Laguerre is at top or getting up and there is a buy signal from Phil
- Short: if Laguere is at bottom or getting down and there is a sell signal from Phil


I read all the 100 first pages of this thread, and now I'm trying to read until this one.
Hi Lut

Makes sense because I also played around with the Laguerre scalping on 1min chart on the Dollie system. But I tend to come back to price movements and patterns (and only a few indicators) rather than relying on too many indicators (lagging) making the system too complicated.

But luckily were are all different people and different systems will suite different people. Do what you feel comfortable with.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,939
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:28am Jan 15, 2008 9:28am
My cable chart with comments on price patterns and possible entry points. And which setups I would have ignored. Great chart to draw the small support lines (point 1-4 on chart).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008015 cable a.JPG Size: 107 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,940
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:55am Jan 15, 2008 9:55am
The two charts mentioned on the Skype chat:

[05:31:04 PM] Willem Kruger says: Cable - what looks like ascending candle being formed but 21MA is flat at this stage. Too long run already.

[05:32:41 PM] Willem Kruger says: EY - made a nice smooth ellipse pullback. Hope some of you got into the action. You won't get a better smooth pullback and bounce of the 21 like that

[05:33:47 PM] Willem Kruger says: EY - Daily S2 was just in the way - the reason why I didn't enter. You could have entered after it went through 159.16

[05:38:18 PM] Willem Kruger says: Cable - once again my price pattern didn't disappoint me. It gave 10pips and still going. But I didn't enter.

[05:40:05 PM] Willem Kruger says: Cable - what a beauty! Always nice to see that the high probability setups (setups with price patterns) do work out. Always easy to spot it afterwards.

[05:40:40 PM] Phillip Nel says: Hi. How did it go today

[05:42:23 PM] Willem Kruger says: No, too busy. No trades, only watching now as the high probability trades pass me by. Still struggling with confidence.

[05:43:23 PM] Willem Kruger says: Nice to see the price patterns being formed again. Now just to pull the trigger on the high probability setups. Like the ones posted on thread

[05:43:38 PM] Phillip Nel says: Yes.

Once you do see a smooth pullback like the one on EY, what for a slow turn-around and then move will continue downwards. Your entry is usually on the 10MA making it a bit risky.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008015 cable c.JPG Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008015 ey a.gif Size: 27 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
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