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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #58,881
  • Jan 12, 2008 12:17pm Jan 12, 2008 12:17pm
Quoting ovaforty
I was confused as to why usd/jpy did not tank last week with the dow.
Yeah the yen carry ditatched from the DOW months ago.
  • #58,882
  • Jan 12, 2008 12:24pm Jan 12, 2008 12:24pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Yeah the yen carry ditatched from the DOW months ago.
Old correlations have been broken and new ones are forming. We need to find out what future correlations will be in order to make a living from whatever happens.
  • #58,883
  • Jan 12, 2008 12:26pm Jan 12, 2008 12:26pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Not sure what u want explained, Volume is the gas pedal to the car as it tries to climb a hill the graeter the slope the greater energy required to climb it, to me we price is being supported or showing resistance it requires ALOT of gas pedal to slow it or stop it cold, for reversals. Another clue is how much gas pedal does it need and how far has it traveled for that amount of gas pedal applied (bar spread). Not saying it cant wont go down or up but alot of gas pedal being applied daily and price hasnt moved much. Weekly showing dbl gas pedal with spread comparision favouring a strong decrease is spread, One could assume price is becoming supported near term. But who knows.
Thank you for trying to clarify your rather cryptic messages for us who are not as enlightened as you are in this arena. It would greatly help me to understand what you are trying to say to us.
  • #58,884
  • Jan 12, 2008 12:37pm Jan 12, 2008 12:37pm
Quoting ovaforty
Old correlations have been broken and new ones are forming. We need to find out what future correlations will be in order to make a living from whatever happens.
Oil
  • #58,885
  • Jan 12, 2008 12:38pm Jan 12, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting ovaforty
Thank you for trying to clarify your rather cryptic messages for us who are not as enlightened as you are in this arena. It would greatly help me to understand what you are trying to say to us.
I second that. Traders do not have a lot of time to "de-crypt" messages.lol
  • #58,886
  • Jan 12, 2008 12:57pm Jan 12, 2008 12:57pm
One more thing to take into consideration:

Who owns the majority of Forex reserves in this present world?

What are they doing with their reserves?

We are hearing about sovereign funds in the financial news lately.


The oil money (opec and middle east), the asian money, the russian money? Where is it going? Some of it is going towards to owning the U.S.


Look at the political situation. Europe is transforming from leftist (France, German elections), to a more conservative leaning govt. Blair will soon be new president of the E.U. The U.S. has lost its dominance economically. Things are changing rapidly and a new World Order is forming.

Radical Sects of "christians" have been suppressed here in the U.S. (Arian nation, neo-nazi) but they are armed and militant. They have hatred for other races and beliefs as their motto, just as the radical sect of the Islamic faith has done.

I do not want war.

But it is better to prepare for a global war and a global recession/depression and be wrong about it, than to bury my head in the sand and ignore what is happening.

I study to keep informed on events in order to make a living from whatever I can.

Market Sentiment will sometimes trump technicals for a while, until the technicals again take control.

What ever happens, will happen. Follow where the money is going and go where it goes.

How does this relate to GBP/JPY?
For now SELL rallies to capitalize on the fast, sudden plunges in this pair. Keep a short position IF you get a strong entry like we had at 251 or 241.
Study your charts. We wont see those levels again, most likely.

But we may see 217, 219, 220, or a little bit higher, possibly.

My survival strategy is to hold a short position (paying the swap) with a b/e stop loss from as high a level as I can.
Then I will hedge the retraces up until it dies out, then take profit with swap.
I have chosen the 200 sma on the weekly as one of my hedge areas. This is logical.
  • #58,887
  • Jan 12, 2008 12:58pm Jan 12, 2008 12:58pm
Quoting PipChick
I second that. Traders do not have a lot of time to "de-crypt" messages.lol

Sorry guys/gals not a man of many words, Will try to explain my thinking lil better

Yen could be in trouble closing below 108.42 on month chart.

Not sure professional money will allow such a decline for dollars.
My guess around summer Yen is bought and hard until we all die of old age LOL
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #58,888
  • Jan 12, 2008 1:00pm Jan 12, 2008 1:00pm
Quoting PipChick
I use to think that FX starship but the last month has proved me quite wrong. It does have some coorelation but it also becomes disconnected at times. The last few days the g/j moved tic for tic with the dow but as mentioned above, the last month was disconnected.

dow connect back for the time being... has anyone charted the dow???

i read on a post somewhere that a double bottom had fomred or was forming that could signal bullish but if broken would be a neckline break??? dont have dow on my software but would love to see that hint hint
  • #58,889
  • Jan 12, 2008 1:01pm Jan 12, 2008 1:01pm
Quoting ovaforty
One more thing to take into consideration:

Who owns the majority of Forex reserves in this present world?

What are they doing with their reserves?

We are hearing about sovereign funds in the financial news lately.


The oil money (opec and middle east), the asian money, the russian money? Where is it going? Some of it is going towards to owning the U.S.


Look at the political situation. Europe is transforming from leftist (France, German elections), to a more conservative leaning govt. Blair will soon be new president of the E.U. The U.S. has lost its dominance economically. Things are changing rapidly and a new World Order is forming.

Radical Sects of "christians" have been suppressed here in the U.S. (Arian nation, neo-nazi) but they are armed and militant. They have hatred for other races and beliefs as their motto, just as the radical sect of the Islamic faith has done.

I do not want war.

But it is better to prepare for a global war and a global recession/depression and be wrong about it, than to bury my head in the sand and ignore what is happening.

I study to keep informed on events in order to make a living from whatever I can.

Market Sentiment will sometimes trump technicals for a while, until the technicals again take control.

What ever happens, will happen. Follow where the money is going and go where it goes.

How does this relate to GBP/JPY?
For now SELL rallies to capitalize on the fast, sudden plunges in this pair. Keep a short position IF you get a strong entry like we had at 251 or 241.
Study your charts. We wont see those levels again, most likely.

But we may see 217, 219, 220, or a little bit higher, possibly.

My survival strategy is to hold a short position (paying the swap) with a b/e stop loss from as high a level as I can.
Then I will hedge the retraces up until it dies out, then take profit with swap.
I have chosen the 200 sma on the weekly as one of my hedge areas. This is logical.
And.............if the g/j decides to follow the equities mkts then take a look at the dow daily chart.There is a daily H/S on the dow. I agree ovaforty..SELL rallies..lol
  • #58,890
  • Jan 12, 2008 1:04pm Jan 12, 2008 1:04pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Sorry guys/gals not a man of many words, Will try to explain my thinking lil better

Yen could be in trouble closing below 108.42 on month chart.

Not sure professional money will allow such a decline for dollars.
My guess around summer Yen is bought and hard until we all die of old age LOL
Thank you for that explanation.....Keep us informed on your insights.
  • #58,891
  • Jan 12, 2008 1:07pm Jan 12, 2008 1:07pm
Dagoods,
this is Dow back to 1900, unfortunately it ends Nov 30 07

monthly bars

A glimpse of a maybe on the distant future
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_7.gif Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_8.gif Size: 52 KB
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #58,892
  • Jan 12, 2008 1:12pm Jan 12, 2008 1:12pm
Quoting dagoods
dow connect back for the time being... has anyone charted the dow???

i read on a post somewhere that a double bottom had fomred or was forming that could signal bullish but if broken would be a neckline break??? dont have dow on my software but would love to see that hint hint
Download North Finance mt4 platform to get the dow chart.
  • #58,893
  • Jan 12, 2008 1:14pm Jan 12, 2008 1:14pm
thanks but a historical view is tough to trade off of...was lloking for something that could give a clue where gj headed for this week this month....ie need to zoom in lol but ty its good to remember that the dow historically always goes up...

(for what its worth markam) there was some concern around 1929 october though.... lol
  • #58,894
  • Jan 12, 2008 1:22pm Jan 12, 2008 1:22pm
Here is the daily dow. If you need more info, let me know and I will do more screen shots.


Quoting dagoods
thanks but a historical view is tough to trade off of...was lloking for something that could give a clue where gj headed for this week this month....ie need to zoom in lol but ty its good to remember that the dow historically always goes up...

(for what its worth markam) there was some concern around 1929 october though.... lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW DAILY.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #58,895
  • Jan 12, 2008 1:28pm Jan 12, 2008 1:28pm
dagoods

here is a few swings worth of setups
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_10.gif Size: 76 KB
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #58,896
  • Jan 12, 2008 1:31pm Jan 12, 2008 1:31pm
This may help and give a more clear picture.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hr dow.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #58,897
  • Edited 5:13pm Jan 12, 2008 3:22pm | Edited 5:13pm
Quoting dagoods
thanks but a historical view is tough to trade off of...was lloking for something that could give a clue where gj headed for this week this month....ie need to zoom in lol but ty its good to remember that the dow historically always goes up...

(for what its worth markam) there was some concern around 1929 october though.... lol
Here's is what my flawed thinking is showing me after looking at GJ's chart in the most simplistic manner I could with a naked 1hr chart, call it my Que senses, ROTFLMAO!

Looks like we are looking at a perfect 1234 pattern or as some would call it ABCD pattern. Therefore this is what I am expecting starting next week. . .

Looking at the swing low and high from the end of the fall, let's call that (A) (212.05) and (B) (214.09) and (C) 212.76 in an ABCD/1234 pattern price should retrace at least 61.8% (C) before heading up to the (D) extension, which could be 1.618, 2.000 or 2.618.

Okay, lets test this theory out. . .

((B-A) x 61.8) - B = C
((214.05 - 212.09) x 61.8%) - 214.09 = 212.87, price went down to 212.76 before the end of Friday's close according to my charts, okay so far it's following this theory. . .

Now the D extension should either go to 1.618, 2.000 or 2.618 fib ext. before heading back down to complete this C wave. So lets take a look at where price could go. . .

((B-A) x 1.618) + C = D
((214.09-212.05) x 1.618) + 212.76 = 216.05
or
((B-A) x 1.618) + C = D
((214.09-212.05) x 2.000) + 212.76 = 216.84
or
((B-A) x 2.618 + C = D
((214.09-212.05) x 2.618) + 212.76 = 218.10

Anyone using fibs should be able to project price by clicking on the ABC price and get an estimate of where price could go if this is a true ABCD or 1234 pattern. . .

If anyone follows daily pivots, r1 =215.79, r2 = 217.12 and r3 = 218.27 which are very close to my ABCD pattern ext. Hmmmmmmm, If price goes up it has to go somewhere, Hmmmmmm. .

I guess we will see starting 2morrow. As always just another way of looking at things from a different perspective. I bought the (C) dip at the close seemed pretty low risk. I have a 50 pip stop loss but I think we won't see it that low. . .

Take a look at GU's monthly chart which looks similar to GJ's, Looking at GU's 4hr chart it looks like it has room to move up to at least 1.9647 before meeting trend line resistance if it has bottomed out for now. Also, looking at a 4hr UJ chart looks like UJ could move up and test 110.46 before meeting resistance (DOW was down over 260 points Friday and UJ stood pretty stern @ 108.83 at the close, hmmmmmmm)

Since both GU and UJ have been moving in the same direction lately we could easily calculate where price could go (110.46 x 1.9647 = 217.02), falls in line with all the numbers calculated above. . .Hmmmmmmmmm!

Not saying price couldn't go the other way but sure looks like it has all the signs of going back up before going back down.

Again this is my flawed thinking but just something else to ponder!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ABCD Pattern 1hr.JPG Size: 138 KB
  • #58,898
  • Jan 12, 2008 4:05pm Jan 12, 2008 4:05pm
Quoting PipChick
This may help and give a more clear picture.

looks very clear to me thanks you!
  • #58,899
  • Edited 5:19pm Jan 12, 2008 4:48pm | Edited 5:19pm
PC this bullish bat will come into play when price will touch bottom of the red rectangle so we will have to wait. By the way thanks for the detailed annalysis.
Quoting PipChick
Great..thanks! Here is the weekly g/j chart which has formed a bullish bat..
Im going to have to check my settings on this zigzag thing because my weekly shows a wave 5 complete. (I could be totally wrong becasue I am by no means an elliotician! lol)
  • #58,900
  • Jan 12, 2008 5:16pm Jan 12, 2008 5:16pm
Interesting commentary you have there, you might find this link interesting;

Inserted Video


A





Quoting ovaforty
One more thing to take into consideration:

Who owns the majority of Forex reserves in this present world?

What are they doing with their reserves?

We are hearing about sovereign funds in the financial news lately.


The oil money (opec and middle east), the asian money, the russian money? Where is it going? Some of it is going towards to owning the U.S.


Look at the political situation. Europe is transforming from leftist (France, German elections), to a more conservative leaning govt. Blair will soon be new president of the E.U. The U.S. has lost its dominance economically. Things are changing rapidly and a new World Order is forming.

Radical Sects of "christians" have been suppressed here in the U.S. (Arian nation, neo-nazi) but they are armed and militant. They have hatred for other races and beliefs as their motto, just as the radical sect of the Islamic faith has done.

I do not want war.

But it is better to prepare for a global war and a global recession/depression and be wrong about it, than to bury my head in the sand and ignore what is happening.

I study to keep informed on events in order to make a living from whatever I can.

Market Sentiment will sometimes trump technicals for a while, until the technicals again take control.

What ever happens, will happen. Follow where the money is going and go where it goes.

How does this relate to GBP/JPY?
For now SELL rallies to capitalize on the fast, sudden plunges in this pair. Keep a short position IF you get a strong entry like we had at 251 or 241.
Study your charts. We wont see those levels again, most likely.

But we may see 217, 219, 220, or a little bit higher, possibly.

My survival strategy is to hold a short position (paying the swap) with a b/e stop loss from as high a level as I can.
Then I will hedge the retraces up until it dies out, then take profit with swap.
I have chosen the 200 sma on the weekly as one of my hedge areas. This is logical.
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