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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #58,861
  • Jan 12, 2008 10:14am Jan 12, 2008 10:14am
Quoting ovaforty
i am clueless to harmonics. I rely on the other posters to update me on that. That is why this thread is still so relevent and helpful, even though some have quit posting. Others have taken up the slack.


I got my zigzag indicator from the custom indicators list on the navigator. It should be in your navigator.
Great..thanks! Here is the weekly g/j chart which has formed a bullish bat..
Im going to have to check my settings on this zigzag thing because my weekly shows a wave 5 complete. (I could be totally wrong becasue I am by no means an elliotician! lol)
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  • #58,862
  • Jan 12, 2008 10:40am Jan 12, 2008 10:40am
Quoting PipChick
Great..thanks! Here is the weekly g/j chart which has formed a bullish bat..
Im going to have to check my settings on this zigzag thing because my weekly shows a wave 5 complete. (I could be totally wrong becasue I am by no means an elliotician! lol)
Your zigzag has included the sideways movement as #3 and #4, whereas mine smoothed it out #3 down includes your # and #4
  • #58,863
  • Jan 12, 2008 10:45am Jan 12, 2008 10:45am
Quoting ovaforty
Your zigzag has included the sideways movement as #3 and #4, whereas mine smoothed it out #3 down includes your # and #4
ahhhhhhhh ok thanks!
  • #58,864
  • Jan 12, 2008 10:49am Jan 12, 2008 10:49am
Quoting PipChick
Great..thanks! Here is the weekly g/j chart which has formed a bullish bat..
Im going to have to check my settings on this zigzag thing because my weekly shows a wave 5 complete. (I could be totally wrong becasue I am by no means an elliotician! lol)
On weekly we are in the most powerful C3 wave, first objective 210-ish
  • #58,865
  • Jan 12, 2008 10:51am Jan 12, 2008 10:51am
Quoting FXStarShip
My thinking is that you can anal-yze this chart 1000 different ways but the real deal is that it moves in a high correlation with the equity markets, Period.

Just my 2 cents~

Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner. If you trade long-term, like I do, it is all about the global stock market, and economic conditions within the important countries. GJ is going to go way down, because england is heading for a real economic disaster.
  • #58,866
  • Jan 12, 2008 10:59am Jan 12, 2008 10:59am
Quoting markam
Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner. If you trade long-term, like I do, it is all about the global stock market, and economic conditions within the important countries. GJ is going to go way down, because england is heading for a real economic disaster.
but it will go down in waves....
  • #58,867
  • Jan 12, 2008 11:05am Jan 12, 2008 11:05am
Japan is also on the verge of a recession again. What happens if they go down? They cut rates to .25% again? Or 0% again? There will still be a positive carry interest rate for GBP/JPY for a long time. Sooner or later that will overcome negative market sentiment. Think about it.

GBP = lower rate coming, also jpy?
  • #58,868
  • Jan 12, 2008 11:06am Jan 12, 2008 11:06am
Quoting ovaforty
but it will go down in waves....
And being that there are bullish bat formations on every time frame from the 15 min to the weekly, we may be in for a retrace especially since the price bounced off of the historical 38.2 from the monthly chart on fri. Time will tell, but we have to be ready to go which ever way the mkt decides to go.
  • #58,869
  • Jan 12, 2008 11:06am Jan 12, 2008 11:06am
Quoting ovaforty
Japan is also on the verge of a recession again. What happens if they go down? They cut rates to .25% again? Or 0% again? There will still be a positive carry interest rate for GBP/JPY for a long time. Sooner or later that will overcome negative market sentiment. Think about it.

GBP = lower rate coming, also jpy?
hmmmmmmmm you have a point.
  • #58,870
  • Jan 12, 2008 11:08am Jan 12, 2008 11:08am
Quoting PipChick
hmmmmmmmm you have a point.
Also, after this big drop, the carry traders may be ready to get back into the mkt. They seem to take their positions after a few thousand pip drop.
  • #58,871
  • Jan 12, 2008 11:10am Jan 12, 2008 11:10am
Seems like anymore that Sunday evenings before the brokers even open, the market sets the tone.
  • #58,872
  • Jan 12, 2008 11:12am Jan 12, 2008 11:12am
Quoting ovaforty
Japan is also on the verge of a recession again. What happens if they go down? They cut rates to .25% again? Or 0% again? There will still be a positive carry interest rate for GBP/JPY for a long time. Sooner or later that will overcome negative market sentiment. Think about it.

GBP = lower rate coming, also jpy?
The carry trade only works when people have an expectation of being able to invest the borrowed money and make sufficient profit to minimize the risk of currency swings. With global stock markets going down, and with a much higher risk of yen strengthening, you would be a fool to make big bets anytime in the near (or long) term.
  • #58,873
  • Jan 12, 2008 11:12am Jan 12, 2008 11:12am
I am fully aware that we are in the Latter days. Ezekial's War is coming with Russia and the radical sect of Islamic states.
But until the Rapture occurs, and until the Tribulation period actually begins, It will business as usual, and that means carry trade will always be available until it is no longer available. What I do is look for the least risky carry pairs.
  • #58,874
  • Jan 12, 2008 11:18am Jan 12, 2008 11:18am
My preparation for the hard times coming is to acquire gold on dips, and learning hydroponic techniques to feed my family in contaminated conditions, and to use as barter.
  • #58,875
  • Jan 12, 2008 11:23am Jan 12, 2008 11:23am
CPL charts to ponder maybe, month chart count prolly incorrect But volumes hold some answers.
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #58,876
  • Jan 12, 2008 11:28am Jan 12, 2008 11:28am
Quoting OrionsWay
CPL charts to ponder maybe, month chart count prolly incorrect But volumes hold some answers.
Please explain
  • #58,877
  • Edited 1:06pm Jan 12, 2008 11:43am | Edited 1:06pm
Flight to safety has historically been to swiss franc...... This may be different or not in the future. What we need to find by studying the patterns of currency pairs, is where do the big boys put their money?



Watch the money flow. Go where it goes.
  • #58,878
  • Edited 12:15pm Jan 12, 2008 11:44am | Edited 12:15pm
Quoting markam
Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner. If you trade long-term, like I do, it is all about the global stock market, and economic conditions within the important countries. GJ is going to go way down, because england is heading for a real economic disaster.
Aggree with you, markam.

At the moment I try to figure out in terms of FA perspective why oh why Enland is having glooming economic condition.

And by looking at both weekly n monthly charts, I cant see GBP has a chance to stand the Japanese Bull from taking control of the battle, well at least for upcoming 3 to 6 months I guess.

Nevertheless, one thing that look soo sure is that 1 GBP wont be equal to 1 Yen, rite?

PS: One post GJ that I opened, and still let it run, on 20.12.2007 reads more +1000 pips in profit.
  • #58,879
  • Jan 12, 2008 11:46am Jan 12, 2008 11:46am
I was confused as to why usd/jpy did not tank last week with the dow.
  • #58,880
  • Jan 12, 2008 11:48am Jan 12, 2008 11:48am
Quoting PipChick
Please explain

Not sure what u want explained, Volume is the gas pedal to the car as it tries to climb a hill the graeter the slope the greater energy required to climb it, to me we price is being supported or showing resistance it requires ALOT of gas pedal to slow it or stop it cold, for reversals. Another clue is how much gas pedal does it need and how far has it traveled for that amount of gas pedal applied (bar spread). Not saying it cant wont go down or up but alot of gas pedal being applied daily and price hasnt moved much. Weekly showing dbl gas pedal with spread comparision favouring a strong decrease is spread, One could assume price is becoming supported near term. But who knows.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
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