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  • #641
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:35pm Jan 10, 2008 3:35pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
could you go into a little detail regarding the type of price action you would look for to determine a reversal? i hear people say that alot but its confusing to me because i thought price action was all price patterns (double tops, h&s, pinbars, etc.) but is that what you are refering to in this case? are you just looking for these patterns on much smaller tfs?
The price action that I normally look for are pin bars, piercing patterns and engulfment patterns. Once price is at resistance, I like to see a solid indication through a pin bar or bearish/bullish engulfment that price is truly rejecting the price above resistance. Do you understand or no? If not, I could post a few pics.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #642
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:53pm Jan 10, 2008 3:53pm
is that where a candlestick forms through a support or resistance line?


btw, i have been watching your thread for a while now. thanks for recording your astute observations. they have been a real blessing!

KissFan
  • #643
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:54pm Jan 10, 2008 3:54pm
Quoting mike w
The price action that I normally look for are pin bars, piercing patterns and engulfment patterns. Once price is at resistance, I like to see a solid indication through a pin bar or bearish/bullish engulfment that price is truly rejecting the price above resistance. Do you understand or no? If not, I could post a few pics.
but you are looking for these patterns on the higher tfs right? for instance, you said gbp/chf has a pin bar against the trend but you wont trade it until you see solid price action indicating its reversal.....i assumed that meant you would be scaling in to smaller tfs and looking for price action there to confirm that the pin bar is infact valid.
  • #644
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:58pm Jan 10, 2008 3:58pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
but you are looking for these patterns on the higher tfs right? for instance, you said gbp/chf has a pin bar against the trend but you wont trade it until you see solid price action indicating its reversal.....i assumed that meant you would be scaling in to smaller tfs and looking for price action there to confirm that the pin bar is infact valid.
No, I meant that, although there is a pin bar, I wouldn't trade it because it is against the main trend. Instead, I would wait for price to move upwards if it does and then sell once price action dictates to do so from that higher level. I would look to the 4 hour timeframe as that is the one in which we saw the initial pin and then I would look lower once it is close to resistance. I will not trade against the main trend. If you do that, you are limiting your success because you are limiting yourself to only be gaining a small retracement, whereas if you were trading with the trend, you are giving yourself a lot of room for profit.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #645
  • Jan 10, 2008 4:01pm Jan 10, 2008 4:01pm
Quoting KissFan
is that where a candlestick forms through a support or resistance line?


btw, i have been watching your thread for a while now. thanks for recording your astute observations. they have been a real blessing!

KissFan
Hi Kissfan, thanks for the compliments!

As for piercing patterns, they are just patterns where price reverts at least halfway through the previous bar.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #646
  • Jan 10, 2008 5:52pm Jan 10, 2008 5:52pm
mike,

been messing around with the trendlines on eurchf and cadjpy. i have both trendlines basically running in line with the 24&28 emas as well as the 4hr gann. although cadjpy violated that initial wedge, the new tl created a bigger wedge with lots of resistance up top so hopefully that will break out downwards.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy4hrresistance.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf4hrresistance.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #647
  • Jan 10, 2008 5:56pm Jan 10, 2008 5:56pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
mike,

been messing around with the trendlines on eurchf and cadjpy. i have both trendlines basically running in line with the 24&28 emas as well as the 4hr gann. although cadjpy violated that initial wedge, the new tl created a bigger wedge with lots of resistance up top so hopefully that will break out downwards.
Nice stuff DWB! That's pretty much exactly what I'm looking at as well. Thanks for the input!

Once my 4 hour closes at 7, I will post trade possibilities afterwards.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #648
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:30pm Jan 10, 2008 6:30pm
All the JPY crosses triangles are getting smaller.... and something will have to give soon... only exception might be USD/JPY... now that Bernanke opened his mouth today... there maybe a chance USD/JPY will work its way up... USD/JPY following trend line UP for the time being...

Quoting DaddyWarbuck
mike,

been messing around with the trendlines on eurchf and cadjpy. i have both trendlines basically running in line with the 24&28 emas as well as the 4hr gann. although cadjpy violated that initial wedge, the new tl created a bigger wedge with lots of resistance up top so hopefully that will break out downwards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #649
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:32pm Jan 10, 2008 6:32pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
All the JPY crosses triangles are getting smaller.... and something will have to give soon... only exception might be USD/JPY... now that Bernanke opened his mouth today... there maybe a chance USD/JPY will work its way up... USD/JPY following trend line UP for the time being...
I noticed that too and I agree. On the longer term though, do you think that could actually be a bearish sign? At the moment, it is definitely bullish but I think it creates a flag pattern for the longer term. What do you think? I still have my long term trades in on it, but other than that, I am not trading it.

I think it could easily get to 111 with that kind of buying pressure right underneath it at all times.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #650
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:36pm Jan 10, 2008 6:36pm
It will take another day perhaps... but maybe we are beginning to see the Price action on CAD...

As far as I am concerned any real price action should be looked at on the daily charts and not below...

We had a doji today for CAD.... means buyers and sellers are pushing equally both ways... Again... now that bernanke has openly said he will do whatever needed... meaning open for more rate cuts... which translate into weaker dollar.... maybe now we will begin to see the USD/CAD start it's much talked about but never seeming to happen downturn...

Look what happened the last time there was a doji... that is Price Action... If we see a down day tomorrow or a red inside bar... that will be another clue...

Quoting DaddyWarbuck
could you go into a little detail regarding the type of price action you would look for to determine a reversal? i hear people say that alot but its confusing to me because i thought price action was all price patterns (double tops, h&s, pinbars, etc.) but is that what you are refering to in this case? are you just looking for these patterns on much smaller tfs?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #651
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:39pm Jan 10, 2008 6:39pm
I am concerned about a flag pattern too.... I have a long here, which I got into too late... so I really just want to get it into positive... and then perhaps close it out...

On the other hand... just have that pending sell order under the trend line...

Quoting mike w
I noticed that too and I agree. On the longer term though, do you think that could actually be a bearish sign? At the moment, it is definitely bullish but I think it creates a flag pattern for the longer term. What do you think? I still have my long term trades in on it, but other than that, I am not trading it.

I think it could easily get to 111 with that kind of buying pressure right underneath it at all times.
  • #652
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:42pm Jan 10, 2008 6:42pm
I WANT all the way to the 61 fib line !!! That's all the way to 112 or so...But lets see if we can make it... learntocount was saying 61 fib for USD/JPY the other night... but I haven't asked him anymore about it since he shooed me off the other day... I'll just leave him alone... only took him two days to get tired of me...

We need to be prepared on this pair...

Quoting mike w
I noticed that too and I agree. On the longer term though, do you think that could actually be a bearish sign? At the moment, it is definitely bullish but I think it creates a flag pattern for the longer term. What do you think? I still have my long term trades in on it, but other than that, I am not trading it.

I think it could easily get to 111 with that kind of buying pressure right underneath it at all times.
  • #653
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:48pm Jan 10, 2008 6:48pm
Nice to see you drop in tonight Tiki !

Do you have any views on the CadYen to share with us please. Mike what do you think ? Or anyone else please. Somehow I like that pair a lot.
  • #654
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:49pm Jan 10, 2008 6:49pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I WANT all the way to the 61 fib line !!! That's all the way to 112 or so...But lets see if we can make it... learntocount was saying 61 fib for USD/JPY the other night... but I haven't asked him anymore about it since he shooed me off the other day... I'll just leave him alone... only took him two days to get tired of me...

We need to be prepared on this pair...
I agree. I think it will get there, but then again who knows...I thought the usd/cad would fall days ago lol Anyways, you need to keep in mind that along with price your sell order should rise as well. As long as that trendline keeps moving upwards, then your order should as well to get in at the best price when the time comes.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #655
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:51pm Jan 10, 2008 6:51pm
Quoting FxPip
Nice to see you drop in tonight Tiki !

Do you have any views on the CadYen to share with us please. Mike what do you think ? Or anyone else please. Somehow I like that pair a lot.

Check right above on DWB's post. That's exactly what I am looking at as well.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #656
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:52pm Jan 10, 2008 6:52pm
YES got to be moving it daily... !!!

Quoting mike w
I agree. I think it will get there, but then again who knows...I thought the usd/cad would fall days ago lol Anyways, you need to keep in mind that along with price your sell order should rise as well. As long as that trendline keeps moving upwards, then your order should as well to get in at the best price when the time comes.
  • #657
  • Jan 10, 2008 7:07pm Jan 10, 2008 7:07pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
It will take another day perhaps... but maybe we are beginning to see the Price action on CAD...

As far as I am concerned any real price action should be looked at on the daily charts and not below...

We had a doji today for CAD.... means buyers and sellers are pushing equally both ways... Again... now that bernanke has openly said he will do whatever needed... meaning open for more rate cuts... which translate into weaker dollar.... maybe now we will begin to see the USD/CAD start it's much talked about but never seeming to happen downturn...

Look what happened the last time there was a doji... that is Price Action... If we see a down day tomorrow or a red inside bar... that will be another clue...
If it pans out correctly, I'll show you my weekly chart at the end of the week. It should indicate more downside again as well.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #658
  • Jan 10, 2008 7:39pm Jan 10, 2008 7:39pm
Thanks Mike are you guys saying CadYen is going down from here and staying with the trend we had the last 10 days or so? I can see the triangle the charts are showing but what does it mean? Where to from here :-)

Its like you looking at my chart you have no idea how to read it too same I have with your charts :-) Thanks for your help.
  • #659
  • Jan 10, 2008 7:42pm Jan 10, 2008 7:42pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
It will take another day perhaps... but maybe we are beginning to see the Price action on CAD...

As far as I am concerned any real price action should be looked at on the daily charts and not below...

We had a doji today for CAD.... means buyers and sellers are pushing equally both ways... Again... now that bernanke has openly said he will do whatever needed... meaning open for more rate cuts... which translate into weaker dollar.... maybe now we will begin to see the USD/CAD start it's much talked about but never seeming to happen downturn...

Look what happened the last time there was a doji... that is Price Action... If we see a down day tomorrow or a red inside bar... that will be another clue...
well put tiki.... thanks! IMO we will know very soon if that is a tradeable price action pin bar or not..... good stuff
  • #660
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:11am Jan 11, 2008 2:11am
Firstly Mike can I say my experience of forums is I have none. I am going to tell you what has happened as briefly as I can since my last post but am really looking for your guidance on what the protocol is, I know it’s your trading journal but feel unless I tell you what is happening I can not learn from you .Maybe I should pm ?
I did drop my lower time frames as promised on Tuesday and had a bit of disastrous day on Wed. Trouble was I had changed my time frames but not my trading style of scalping .Started looking at my RSI and Stoch too much with less going on. For instance a bullish divergence on a gbp-usd 15 min plays out quite quickly but on the daily well its still there now and definitely not kicked in yet might never the way things are going.
I have read the first couple of pages here and did go to the Vegas Wealth Builder as instructed. The 4hr plan has greatly interested me and I now have 2 small windows for reference on my desktop. The thing that really stands out on the weekly V -W –B is the momentum down and I now realise I need to be looking for good selling opportunities only.
I have set up a profile with your system and so I can study it separately and laid out the chart exactly as you have. That’s it for mo let me know what you think.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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