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  • #621
  • Edited 5:54pm Jan 9, 2008 5:52pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting mike w
Talk all you want to in here guys, that's how we learn together. This isn't a set thread just for me. It has my name in it, but that doesn't make it mine. I intended for this to be an educational experience for myself and others.
some of the senior members are picky bout that kind of stuff. i just added those two emas to cadjpy and price is siting right on top of both of them and trying to break through as i type this. just wondering, is the h&s still valid now that it has basically an extra mini right shoulder?
  • #622
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:01pm Jan 9, 2008 6:01pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
some of the senior members are picky bout that kind of stuff. i just added those two emas to cadjpy and price is siting right on top of both of them and trying to break through as i type this. just wondering, is the h&s still valid now that it has basically an extra mini right shoulder?
Yes sir, move to the higher timeframe and you'll see this. We have a downwards trendline on the higher timeframes. It is the same thing we saw earlier, just with a little more emphasis. I plan on trading it because this move upwards, to me, was just a retracement. I'll see on an hourly, 2 hour, or 4 hour close where a good price to get in at would be.
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I dream, therefore I become.
  • #623
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:04pm Jan 9, 2008 6:04pm
On another note, we're at the top of the range on the eur/jpy.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #624
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:13pm Jan 9, 2008 6:13pm
I've shorted the Cad/Jpy again. It's a high reward, low risk trade. We've gotten the retracement to the 61.8 fib level and so now I think we will have enough push, if you will, to move lower again.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #625
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:17pm Jan 9, 2008 6:17pm
Quoting mike w
Yes sir, move to the higher timeframe and you'll see this. We have a downwards trendline on the higher timeframes. It is the same thing we saw earlier, just with a little more emphasis. I plan on trading it because this move upwards, to me, was just a retracement. I'll see on an hourly, 2 hour, or 4 hour close where a good price to get in at would be.
couldnt this also be a decending triangle? i forgot....is that a trend continuation or trend reversal price pattern? im guessing its continuation
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  • #626
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:25pm Jan 9, 2008 6:25pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
couldnt this also be a decending triangle? i forgot....is that a trend continuation or trend reversal price pattern? im guessing its continuation
Yeah, it could definitely be looked at that way. In most cases, they break in the direction of the trend. Thanks for that DWB
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #627
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:40pm Jan 9, 2008 6:40pm
Here is another perspective on CadYen 1h. ADX is showing there is some downside now, although it does look kinda small moves right now, ( under the 50 line)
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  • #628
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:55pm Jan 9, 2008 6:55pm
Fxpip, your chart looks insane. If you were tripping out, it would be beautiful. Otherwise, I think you are complexing it wayyyy too much. I don't know what all that stuff is, but maybe your using too much unless you understand it entirely and you aren't getting contradicting signals.

The small moves are because your on a 1 hour timeframe. You don't get huge moves that often when your looking at the 1 hour and lower, whereas if your looking higher you see them a lot more often.

You know what, I'm going to be blunt. I don't feel that you need all that. If you were to take it off and, instead of a billion indicators, learn price action, fibs, support & resistance, and trendlines then I think your trading would be a lot more effective.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #629
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:17pm Jan 9, 2008 7:17pm
Thanks Mike for your comments. I take your advice to heart. I use another at least 12 indicators that I didnt show you :-)

I am a ESFP personality type (on Myers & Briggs) and one of our very typical things are people like me, we like to gather a lot of information before we can make a desicion. It very clearly comes out in my trading !

I have never had any interest in candle formations, or price patterns or trading with Fibs. I like indicators and I like a whole lot of them :-)

I begin to look for a possible trade by looking at where we are now.. O bought or O sold ? When I dont see any of that, then I determine the trend and then a few things must line up and then I pull the trigger.

What is your possible target for your CadYen sell trade?
  • #630
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:31pm Jan 9, 2008 7:31pm
Quoting FxPip
Thanks Mike for your comments. I take your advice to heart. I use another at least 12 indicators that I didnt show you :-)

I am a ESFP personality type (on Myers & Briggs) and one of our very typical things are people like me, we like to gather a lot of information before we can make a desicion. It very clearly comes out in my trading !

I have never had any interest in candle formations, or price patterns or trading with Fibs. I like indicators and I like a whole lot of them :-)

I begin to look for a possible trade by looking at where we are now.. O bought or O sold ? When I dont see any of that, then I determine the trend and then a few things must line up and then I pull the trigger.

What is your possible target for your CadYen sell trade?
I dont have a target just yet. I like to keep winners running as long as possible until I see signs of a reversal. There's a chance of that again at 108 but if that breaks, then I am in for a while.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #631
  • Jan 9, 2008 8:19pm Jan 9, 2008 8:19pm
Thanks Mike I like your way of thinking I too dont have a target, I will take whatever the market will give me.

Daily we are still in the down trend we had the last 10 days or so..although I see some signs of a possible reversal on the daily things does look a bit O sold.

4h chart I see signs of it wanting to go up... move looks small at the moment ADX is low

1h : up is also now currently the flavour of the day (11: 17 East time) Again I see small sideways moves.

Just my observation now I might be very wrong. We have a solid barrier at 108.
  • #632
  • Jan 10, 2008 8:56am Jan 10, 2008 8:56am
So far so good on those two trades, the usd/chf and the cad/jpy. I am closing out the cad/jpy again if it shows signs of a reversal at this support area.

The usd/chf will most likely retrace about 50 pips up to 1.1120, then we should see a fall again. this should happen over the next 8 hours.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #633
  • Jan 10, 2008 9:58am Jan 10, 2008 9:58am
Quoting mike w
So far so good on those two trades, the usd/chf and the cad/jpy. I am closing out the cad/jpy again if it shows signs of a reversal at this support area.

The usd/chf will most likely retrace about 50 pips up to 1.1120, then we should see a fall again. this should happen over the next 8 hours.
when cad/jpy closed above the trendline, did you close out your positions and then re-entered at a later point?
  • #634
  • Jan 10, 2008 10:02am Jan 10, 2008 10:02am
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
when cad/jpy closed above the trendline, did you close out your positions and then re-entered at a later point?
No sir, To me, it's allowed to have a close above. It's the close of the next bar that matters. It closed below and so I knew I was still in the position.
In addition, that was a point where my methodology took place and I didn't think price could break through resistance. With that, there were a few reasons why I thought it would keep moving lower even after the break. I'll post more when I get back from lunch.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #635
  • Jan 10, 2008 10:04am Jan 10, 2008 10:04am
I think we'll get a retrace to the 40's on the usd/jpy and then another drop.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #636
  • Jan 10, 2008 10:17am Jan 10, 2008 10:17am
Quoting mike w
No sir, To me, it's allowed to have a close above. It's the close of the next bar that matters. It closed below and so I knew I was still in the position.
In addition, that was a point where my methodology took place and I didn't think price could break through resistance. With that, there were a few reasons why I thought it would keep moving lower even after the break. I'll post more when I get back from lunch.
gotcha. is the resistance you're referring to the 24&28 emas? because i see how it bounced right off that area.

and what sort of move would it have had to make at the 24/28emas for you to believe that it had broken that resistance? would you have waited for the close of the next bar or the initial close above?
  • #637
  • Jan 10, 2008 12:36pm Jan 10, 2008 12:36pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
gotcha. is the resistance you're referring to the 24&28 emas? because i see how it bounced right off that area.

and what sort of move would it have had to make at the 24/28emas for you to believe that it had broken that resistance? would you have waited for the close of the next bar or the initial close above?
Yep, I am talking about the EMAs. I would normally scale down on my position if I saw a break above on the first bar and exit entirely on the second IF it closes above.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #638
  • Jan 10, 2008 12:47pm Jan 10, 2008 12:47pm
I was checking out the 4 hour charts and saw the gbp/jpy moving up to resistance for another fall IMO, along with the cad/jpy finishing it's retracement before another fall, and the gbp/chf with a pin against the trend. Would I trade any of these at the moment? No. I would instead wait for solid price action to tell me that they will reverse back downwards.

On another note, I am looking out for the eur/chf and the usd/chf as I think they are finishing up their retracements. If we get an hourly close as a pin then I would look to sell again. These are just short term trades at the moment, but could turn into long term trades to go along with my other older usd/chf shorts.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #639
  • Jan 10, 2008 12:55pm Jan 10, 2008 12:55pm
Right now, we're seeing the eur/chf at resistance and potentially closing with a pin bar. Let's see how this pans out. It could turn into a pretty good trade if the close is right. If not, I won't trade it.
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I dream, therefore I become.
  • #640
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:32pm Jan 10, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting mike w
I was checking out the 4 hour charts and saw the gbp/jpy moving up to resistance for another fall IMO, along with the cad/jpy finishing it's retracement before another fall, and the gbp/chf with a pin against the trend. Would I trade any of these at the moment? No. I would instead wait for solid price action to tell me that they will reverse back downwards.
could you go into a little detail regarding the type of price action you would look for to determine a reversal? i hear people say that alot but its confusing to me because i thought price action was all price patterns (double tops, h&s, pinbars, etc.) but is that what you are refering to in this case? are you just looking for these patterns on much smaller tfs?
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