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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,261
  • Jan 10, 2008 8:10am Jan 10, 2008 8:10am
Quoting brettboz
On the 4H its now got a big tail and red macd is on the verge of being green. We still have 2 hours to close. Needs to come down some from here and then it probably makes it too big a stop to take on close (am I right???), so looking for retrace before shorting?????
Yeh has a while to go yet - just keep watching to see what happens. The market will tell you where it wants to go next. After rate decisions a lot of people set their longer term positions out. Use the 1 hour as a better indicator.
  • #10,262
  • Jan 10, 2008 8:42am Jan 10, 2008 8:42am
Looks like thats the end of that idea....
  • #10,263
  • Jan 10, 2008 8:44am Jan 10, 2008 8:44am
This wasn't the best set-up, but that's why this whole game is called speculating....

The 1 hour was finding support at the 365 which was hit price-wise a few times. Got in at the close of the bullish one hour bar with three lots. 4 hour still bullish so I jumped in. Floating 200 right now...will close out one right about now...
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  • #10,264
  • Jan 10, 2008 8:46am Jan 10, 2008 8:46am
You mentioned in your 4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy.PDF that you "only trade the trades that gives signals at these time 17:00, 21:00 and 01:00 (GMT +2)".

I also trade GMT +2, this is why I'm asking.

What I can't understand though is that it is 15:00, 19:00 and 23:00 GMT and the 4 hour candles do not open at these times, or am I mistaken, or is there a setting in MT4 that one can change that?
  • #10,265
  • Jan 10, 2008 8:53am Jan 10, 2008 8:53am
Quoting Palmer
This wasn't the best set-up, but that's why this whole game is called speculating....

The 1 hour was finding support at the 365 which was hit price-wise a few times. Got in at the close of the bullish one hour bar with three lots. 4 hour still bullish so I jumped in. Floating 200 right now...will close out one right about now...
Palmer, now you have really thrown me...

Good long but what were the factors behind taking this? I dont see 365 being hit on the 1H I see it almost hit but not quite. 4H looked to be setting up for TC move at one point during this bar on the south side so how did you determine we were still in bullish market (especially after shorting yesterday)? Couldn't the hourly bar you longed on just have been a pull back after which shorts could have been possible (if it had moved down)?

As you can see Im now completly confused.
  • #10,266
  • Jan 10, 2008 9:06am Jan 10, 2008 9:06am
Quoting brettboz
Palmer, now you have really thrown me...

Good long but what were the factors behind taking this? I dont see 365 being hit on the 1H I see it almost hit but not quite. 4H looked to be setting up for TC move at one point during this bar on the south side so how did you determine we were still in bullish market (especially after shorting yesterday)? Couldn't the hourly bar you longed on just have been a pull back after which shorts could have been possible (if it had moved down)?

As you can see Im now completly confused.
brett:

I see/use the term hit as being 'in the area'. A few pips here or there to me is a 'slop factor'. Fib #'s, trendlines, etc. aren't always exact. I give price action room to breathe around these areas. The 1 hr 'hit' the 365 a few times, 3 times on the above chart. On the 4 hour. were still above the 89 and the 200 was 'hit' 4 times and returned to the upside. I saw all of this as support, plain and simple. Price just happened to take off to the upside. Now look at the 1hr, and the price spike has hit resistance. Even though each top is a few pips away from the resistance line, this is a resistance 'area'. We'll see what happens here but I will not go short because of the 4 hour direction. If price hits a certain 'area' in the past and reacts a certain way again, the chances are that if it return to the same area the probability of that reaction happening again is good...

This trade was all about support on the 4hr and 1hr.
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  • #10,267
  • Jan 10, 2008 9:43am Jan 10, 2008 9:43am
I agree that the support on the 1.4640 area is very strong, also being helped by the 50% Fib retracement (1.4960 to 1.4395) and the 21ma on the daily chart.
  • #10,268
  • Jan 10, 2008 9:56am Jan 10, 2008 9:56am
Quoting Palmer
brett:

I see/use the term hit as being 'in the area'. A few pips here or there to me is a 'slop factor'. Fib #'s, trendlines, etc. aren't always exact. I give price action room to breathe around these areas. The 1 hr 'hit' the 365 a few times, 3 times on the above chart. On the 4 hour. were still above the 89 and the 200 was 'hit' 4 times and returned to the upside. I saw all of this as support, plain and simple. Price just happened to take off to the upside. Now look at the 1hr, and the price spike has hit resistance. Even though each top is a few pips away from the resistance line, this is a resistance 'area'. We'll see what happens here but I will not go short because of the 4 hour direction. If price hits a certain 'area' in the past and reacts a certain way again, the chances are that if it return to the same area the probability of that reaction happening again is good...

This trade was all about support on the 4hr and 1hr.
well done, but a question: u sold after that h1 close while trichet (ecb president) was speaking .i'm not a fundamentalyst, even i coulnt understand english speaking perfectly(always read the written files of phillip) but i'm looking at his speaches for about 2 years to find out somthing. what i recognize is :ususally after he finishes his speach, price suddenly moves up or down very fast and shows alot of flactuation like today, today also price breaks up when he finished and traders become sure about the results.
so .. do u listen to his speachs or just take the trade by technical?because if he had spoken against the eur, may eur/usd now be at 1.4570.
  • #10,269
  • Jan 10, 2008 10:33am Jan 10, 2008 10:33am
Quoting brettboz
Palmer, now you have really thrown me...

Good long but what were the factors behind taking this? I dont see 365 being hit on the 1H I see it almost hit but not quite. 4H looked to be setting up for TC move at one point during this bar on the south side so how did you determine we were still in bullish market (especially after shorting yesterday)? Couldn't the hourly bar you longed on just have been a pull back after which shorts could have been possible (if it had moved down)?

As you can see Im now completly confused.
I think the this is where the 1H comes into play - its important to zoom into what its going on - as the 4H didnt identify this support aswell as the 1H - however i do believe a TC was setting up.
  • #10,270
  • Jan 10, 2008 10:36am Jan 10, 2008 10:36am
Quoting maxster
I have a question - especially for Palmer as I mainly trade TC after a trend is clearly defined by price action - such as Cable right now.

I have gone through about a year of 4H & 1H TC entries I have noticed that when price is fast on the 4H 8EMA, 1H pullback entries are reliable from the 8 21 area. And entry with 4H TC will usually miss the move when speed is 8EMA.

However many times the 1H pullback will give a false signal as the market speed changes to the 4H 21EMA & therefore the correct entry is on the 4H TC near the 21.

I have at best a gut feeling of price action if I should take the 1H entry or switch speed and wait for a TC on the 4H MACD. With your work on bladerunner can you help me be more objective on my 1H entry. I am not sure if you understand my question but basically when the market is fast (8EMA) I take TC entries on the 1H, when market is slower with speed on the 4H 21EMA I take TC entries on the 4H MACD. After endless hours of reviewing the charts I have a gut feeling what is playing out but was hoping to make it more objective. My trading style is focused on catching the large moves and riding till the end.

Thanks.

Hi
Your observation is absolutely correct. By doing just that you will develope a sense when to trade off the 8ema and when off the 21ema when candle emotion shows you. The candle approach differs to each of them.
  • #10,271
  • Edited 10:58am Jan 10, 2008 10:55am | Edited 10:58am
Quoting bshadroo
well done, but a question: u sold after that h1 close while trichet (ecb president) was speaking .i'm not a fundamentalyst, even i coulnt understand english speaking perfectly(always read the written files of phillip) but i'm looking at his speaches for about 2 years to find out somthing. what i recognize is :ususally after he finishes his speach, price suddenly moves up or down very fast and shows alot of flactuation like today, today also price breaks up when he finished and traders become sure about the results.
so .. do u listen to his speachs or just take the trade by technical?because if he had spoken against the eur, may eur/usd now be at 1.4570.

Hmmm...I never sold, the EU...still long one lot. I didn't listen to the speech. This was all chart based.

maxster: "What Phillip said"...The 4 hour rhythm, even the 4 hour rhythm on the 8, all come into play. If you can see this, that's a big part of it.
  • #10,272
  • Jan 10, 2008 10:57am Jan 10, 2008 10:57am
Quoting fxfreedom
You mentioned in your 4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy.PDF that you "only trade the trades that gives signals at these time 17:00, 21:00 and 01:00 (GMT +2)".

I also trade GMT +2, this is why I'm asking.

What I can't understand though is that it is 15:00, 19:00 and 23:00 GMT and the 4 hour candles do not open at these times, or am I mistaken, or is there a setting in MT4 that one can change that?
Hi
I was still very new to different time zones when I wrote that document. That was actually my local time Gmt+2 and Gmt+1 at DST. At that time I could only trade those times due to working conditions. Since Oct2007 I can enter trades but not watch it live. My 16:00 candle closed 2 hours ago which were 17:00 my local time if it will help you
  • #10,273
  • Jan 10, 2008 11:26am Jan 10, 2008 11:26am
Quoting Palmer
Hmmm...I never sold, the EU...still long one lot. I didn't listen to the speech. This was all chart based.

maxster: "What Phillip said"...The 4 hour rhythm, even the 4 hour rhythm on the 8, all come into play. If you can see this, that's a big part of it.
sorry i told "sold" instead of "buy" my typing mistake.
anyway, i got the point , u tkaed ur position ignoring news.but i think it could be very risky if u r not listening to trichet's speak and take the position only by technical.but this time its worked for u i'm happy about that
  • #10,274
  • Jan 10, 2008 11:38am Jan 10, 2008 11:38am
Hi
I lost out today. We had a power save countrywide and our power was down during the interest announcements so no internet was available. i only saw the moves when I got home at 17:00 my local time Gmt+1. Good to those that got some.
  • #10,275
  • Edited 12:22pm Jan 10, 2008 11:41am | Edited 12:22pm
Aussie TC trade i took yesterday is shooting up! Got in at .8813, looks like we are breaking .89 resistance now (went up to .8946 [+133 pips!], moving stops to most recent swing low and letting it run. I'm just posting this because I think that it's very important that when taking TC's, please don't limit yourself profit-wise, they can go for 100's of pips!
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  • #10,276
  • Jan 10, 2008 11:52am Jan 10, 2008 11:52am
it sure is nice to see the markets getting back to that nice rythym for us and out of the junk!
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #10,277
  • Jan 10, 2008 12:19pm Jan 10, 2008 12:19pm
I didn't look at the calendar before getting in, forgot all about it. So I guess 'luck' never hurts. In any case, I don't usually enter a position before an announcement.
  • #10,278
  • Edited 12:46pm Jan 10, 2008 12:19pm | Edited 12:46pm
Can you people now see how important it is to wait for the right moment when the market is moving along known paths as we have learn it here on this thread. Anything out of rhythm is lions country. you are going to get eaten.

The 4H was still difficult today as real signals were not given except for the UsdChf with a zerobreak. That is the only one I would have taken. EurUsd has moved but not with 4H MACD confirmation. GbpUsd also very uncertain at this stage.

There were however oppertunities for those who has been with this thread for some time and has learn the rhythm of the 1H in conjunction and harmony with the 4H.

The EurUsd bounce off the 200sma making that tail down was an indication of a move away from 200sma. That would have been purely on market emotion and 200sma support which did work out. The prior support on 200sma a few candles back was a morning star also indication long. It was also from a bottom supportline.
Nice pipping
  • #10,279
  • Jan 10, 2008 12:56pm Jan 10, 2008 12:56pm
I cought the usdchf short and did good, I did go for the eurgbp long last night and got stopped out due to a tight stop. Yes there is not a lot going on, find something else to do while it's slow
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,280
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:05pm Jan 10, 2008 1:05pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
I cought the usdchf short and did good, I did go for the eurgbp long last night and got stopped out due to a tight stop. Yes there is not a lot going on, find something else to do while it's slow
I got 20 pips this morning, after the EUR announcement (which follow the GBP announcement) by going long on the EURGBP. Kept my stop too tight as well, due to the long 4 hour bar.

I stayed out of the market with the Bernake speaking. Glad to see the market is on the move again. I am excited!
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