Hey mbqb11!
Don't you think this is a sign that the flag formation is about to break down?
Fabian.
good eye and this is how I go about putting all the pieces together. Now it is up to the trader if they want to trade this to trade based on the pinbar, or wait for the channel to break with/without a confirmation.
shorting gold. Made an all time high today and came down sharply after that. There is no resistance near the bottom of the pinbar and there is a DBHLC on EURUSD which could make this setup more valid. Personally I am hesitant taking these but the silver pinbar looks VERY nice. Difficult decisions.
Chris
Why?
) leading into a solid resistance on the 1hr (see chart) and when that extends for a period of time you get more pressure. 
I still feel that long term we're going down (weekly), short term (1hr and of course daily) we're going up.
I'd say first target area is around 111.50.
Biggest reason it will go up though is that I took a long term view and went short (with no real corresponding PA setup) and the market is going to spank me for it.
You see if if doesn't
*points to signature*
Ah now that sounds a bit different than "one way ticket up" doesn't it? ;p
Indeed
To me that's retracing, not going up
Obviously nothing will be decided until either that 107-108 area monthly TL goes or 114 passed again to the upside..I'm trying to be a bit less "crystal bally" lately
And it shows . Your charts have been 100% clearer of late . Crystal clear even.
you have the wierding way
The speed at which we meet in these clear waters of understanding has a profound effect on our bottom lines. Keep it up all year and alls well brothers and sisters.
Caution is the better part of valour at these levels.
KISS
seeking, what wld the success % of trading pa without regard to anything compare to succes % of trading pa with regard to s/r levels etc.
my back tests, have shown from 62% in the former to 75% in the latter, though my back tests are quite crude.
Don't try to bend the trend with a single hand..
The same trigger-and-fakeout happened to me on Gold before..I had my own reason to believe there was at least a chance that Gold might get another push, temporary or not, and therefore kept my long stop below the last few bars/IB windup at 852$.
As I just wrote elseplace I find it infinitely more profitable taking reversal setups back INTO trends rather than trying to make THIS one the one that will end it...more times than not - it won't end it / won't go as far as one with the trend would.
GBPUSD lately was about the only exception and that was weekly and accompanied with a lot of loud fanfare(and went hand in hand with a EURGBP breakout higher)
Wrote a phrasing over in 1kT similiar to:
Do you want to be wrong about the trend ending every day(on every "reversal" setup that fails) or wrong about it continuing once?
Just writing it because I, too, need to remind myself of this every so often
Are you saying that you don't trade PB as indicator of trend reversal?
Are you trading PB that only in direction with trend?
Cos I saw there are quite a lot of PB that play as true trend reversal.
Some example:
1. EUR-USD Daily TF, 2007-11-23
2. GBP-USD Weekly TF, 2007-11-04
3. USD-CHF Daily TF, 2007-11-23
4. Gold Daily TF 2007-11-26 (you will have a decent pips if your exit around support)
Well I already mentioned the GBPUSD exception because I feel that one may have the chance of actually TURNING the trend.
The others may or not have worked for a WHILE(and for really decent profit, sure), but I don't believe they "turned the trend".
The whole idea of trading with the trend is not to let go / not HAVING to let go that soon.
I want to illustrate what I mean with a quickly slopped together USDCAD chart. Obviously this is just a 10 minute piece of work and leaves out tons and tons of addons, reversal setups and tricky bits with counter-setups that "could" have kicked you out(plus it's all hindsight curve fitting etc pp).
This is all part of me trying to change my thinking into a more coherent "trend" idea, because as it turns out, during the main trend phase most "oh no a reversal!" setups end up simply being crushed a few bars or a retrace fib later, one way or another.
Other charts tell a similiar story. Of course pairs aren't always IN the trending phase, but the whole point is to constantly pretend they are, so that when they DO go there, you're riding the waves, literally
Well I already mentioned the GBPUSD exception because I feel that one may have the chance of actually TURNING the trend.
..
?
and what about this..
Racze you been selling yen again??
I knew i should have booked that 150 pips. Mark would have. now back to b/e. again......
I'll get one to take off eventually..
)
