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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #1,401
  • Jan 9, 2008 3:44pm Jan 9, 2008 3:44pm
Sizzler, I think I know where you drew your fibs. At first I did as well but then I ended up using the low of 107.88 and the high of 109.72. This is based off of the 4 hour chart. It gives a clearer picture on this cluster.


I'm guessing you used 108.23 as the low, the problem is there wasn't ever a strong resistance point until after the next low.

I could be off but I've been long with tp 110.41 <--- I just changed that to .41, I was looking at smaller fibs on the projection
  • #1,402
  • Jan 9, 2008 3:56pm Jan 9, 2008 3:56pm
The bill Williams ind. made my life a lot easier today. I've been following this tread in the background for a while now. I've been having a lot of fun with this whole method on the demos. I have only one thing to contribute here. It's not much but here we go. I know I don't need every pip out of the market and if I try I'm just a greedy jerk. Also I feel better about not being in a trade for a really long time. I like to go to the .250 fib level. I notice that the market often goes there first and then pulls back. Put that level on your fibs boys and see how the market reacts to it.
Thank you Skunny for sharing this with all of us. I saw somewhere on here you are in Minnesota. Ever hear of the Mischke Broadcast on AM1500 in the cities? Its a great show and I think you should tune in sometime. 12-2PM Monday-Friday.
Also to all the other late night traders, surf the am dial and find Coast to Coast AM. It will entertain you all night. It's a real blast to listen to.
  • #1,403
  • Jan 9, 2008 3:56pm Jan 9, 2008 3:56pm
Autopsy of a bad Fib/Trade
What went wrong.

1.) I didn't scale out
2.) lost perspective
3.) took an on the fly trade after being purty shures not lay it on the line sure
4.) I am not a smart man.

Alright here is the chart I have AFTER zooming out.

All speculative but talking it out helps. Mistakes are the best.

Master fib k check walked it down the candles as I know it to be done ( not the right way per say)

Now looking at price action I see now FIB demand line there but people bought at that price look at the PA price is coiled up so after that we are looking for Bull fib going from bottom to top I think... so I walked it up and look at this... take a peek. I don;t know if it was revisionist history or what.

i THINK my fib failed because I was counter trend.

I THINK you could have fibs this to perfection on lower tfs.

there is an obvious uptrend look and the buyers..

back to the lab.. I have some that are perfect and these. so it is trial and error and a process of elimination can anyone put their two cents in as to what I MIGHT pursue here?

My thinking is if I can't about trust them absolutely I am wrong. HUman error aside. Now I have to go back and question everything all over again;')

This effs up my EJ analysis now too. because with that much yen weakness it will get killed.

Very disapointing yet interesting. I thought I had it for a second. Hmm.

My new question is... should I just stick to little 15 minute pippahs. I will get this if it kills me

I will take any help on this I can get.

Sizz
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  • #1,404
  • Jan 9, 2008 3:57pm Jan 9, 2008 3:57pm
Quoting sizzler
4 days? it won. sorry. long? why? may god have mercy on your soul that trade should be good middle of 08 .... you better be a legend to take that trade into proft..that is ballsy..Good on ya!

Sizz
Finally pulled the pin this morning with and 11% profit after closing out my last two units with a small loss (I was up 14%! on my book!).

I owe the last couple of days 'good' trading to Skunny for providing some food for thought and a different approach to fib's, thanks again.

Cheers,
Mick.
  • #1,405
  • Jan 9, 2008 3:59pm Jan 9, 2008 3:59pm
Quoting Brunite
Daniel: ......I think I'm just starting to get what Skunny is talking about....trading perfect. I'll probably screw up tomorrow but that is part of learning!

I now see the problem in trading with indicators (for me). Trading an indi-system ties your hands in regard to creativity.....there is little latitude short of trying to optimize.....but because of the lag, there will always be times when things don't work the way they are supposed to. Trading with just PA/SR has just opened up all sorts of new ideas on how to approach a trade. The idea that I could have 2 trades in opposite directions and they both end up in profit blows me away. My mind is racing with things to look at in the context of what I have been doing with this stuff....scaling in for MM purposes.....looking at confluence to ID major turning points....working backwards from congestion points....lots to think about....

.....Which, was what I think Skunny's whole point was here. Not to give us a system....but throw out some concepts for us to run with.

What I have been doing is still a lot of work-in-progress. As I've tried to emphasize before, it may be nothing to do with where Skunny will ultimately take this thread.....but I've found some stuff that looks to be working (for me...for now). Of course; I'm certainly open to learning more!! (those Gann lines SCARE me....lol)

I guess my point in all this rambling is to say:

- I feel like I can now trade with no indicators
- I feel like I can manage my risk better than ever
- I'm not following anyone's specific system
- Watching just PA (and not indicators) is really giving me a "feel" for the flow of the market's moves
- I feel like I can make money doing this
- I feel like I just might be able to find my own Moley Quail

As always.....IMHO.....

Good luck to all.....I'm liking this journey that we are on!
Brunite...this post says it SPOT ON dude... I am sooooo right there with ya
on this!!
  • #1,406
  • Jan 9, 2008 3:59pm Jan 9, 2008 3:59pm
Quoting Espere
I'm testing my bud off to try and find these cycles. Finding some clues though. Different pairs have different habbits it seems to me.

Rbing, maybe fractals can give some idea, will try it but keep it silent. Don't want to get a penalty from the "non indicator comission". I remember Skunny posting a Nonlag zigzag indicator. Maybe there is a clue there. The relavance of this indicator was never really disclosed or i must have mist it.
Could somebody please shine some light on it ?

Thanks,

LL
Skunny posted it for me and anyone else that might have problems identifing R/S. He posted it because I mentioned it was a problem for me. BUT....he said shortly after posting the indicator that you definately should not use it to trade with
PipHunter
  • #1,407
  • Jan 9, 2008 4:08pm Jan 9, 2008 4:08pm
Quoting Scotty B
The bill Williams ind. made my life a lot easier today. I've been following this tread in the background for a while now. I've been having a lot of fun with this whole method on the demos. I have only one thing to contribute here. It's not much but here we go. I know I don't need every pip out of the market and if I try I'm just a greedy jerk. Also I feel better about not being in a trade for a really long time. I like to go to the .250 fib level. I notice that the market often goes there first and then pulls back. Put that level on your fibs boys and see how the market reacts to it.
Thank you Skunny for sharing this with all of us. I saw somewhere on here you are in Minnesota. Ever hear of the Mischke Broadcast on AM1500 in the cities? Its a great show and I think you should tune in sometime. 12-2PM Monday-Friday.
Also to all the other late night traders, surf the am dial and find Coast to Coast AM. It will entertain you all night. It's a real blast to listen to.
The .250 level? Sounds interesting. Though are you sure it's not just reacting due to the .236 level?
  • #1,408
  • Jan 9, 2008 4:22pm Jan 9, 2008 4:22pm
Quoting Pip Hunter
Skunny posted it for me and anyone else that might have problems identifing R/S. He posted it because I mentioned it was a problem for me. BUT....he said shortly after posting the indicator that you definately should not use it to trade with

Thanks for the light PH. Was just trying something on the GU. I'm fibbing 2 consecutive candles on the hourly, one with a higher low than the other and vica versa to see if this is to short to do. See if i can be in and out of the market with some pips in the bag.

Vhands rules.

LL
  • #1,409
  • Edited 4:50pm Jan 9, 2008 4:36pm | Edited 4:50pm
hmm thought about it was open to it but it doesn't sit .

however you are obviously right and i am wrong. Am I wrong completely? if so then how did my other fibs complete perfectly? hmm. that doesn't fit. leading me to think I am overall in the ball park but I can;t hit certain pitches..


my low was ACTUALLY 109.5 . I have used this method primarily after testing etc.. all of my analysis is based off this method of fibbing SO

hm


I just meditated after taking a quick break and the answer came to me . Sometimes you have to be still and ponder the problem and let it get solved hopefully whatever gave me that answer is right hehehe

just tried it and it worked. I submit my109.5 low SEEMS correct( I spent about a tad bit of time on them trying to figure out how to draw them STILL I could be wrong). at that point in time I have to start mini fibbing. it works perfect.

this put my new tp at 110.25 ( the 110.51 was from a fib low swing walk) and my mind to rest. it works perfect.. this might be a breakthrough for me. time to load up the cart... KIDDING!


now I would play the mini range ad infintum until it met the completion of the main in which case new game. and mini fib becomes controller. to spawn the cycle all over again.. hmm.


the 109.5 is a confluence part of many descending ranges I think which we could see movement through but never higher then the 100 and our goal is the -132 ... and we will will be boxed in by the descending range giving us a truer top not so scary.

Those are our dominant ranges.

someone tear me a new one on this, but I FEEL like this is the answer. Lords know how I will be able to apply this real time BUT I will get to testing joy joy screen time NEVER ends Time and money well invested though still have a blast.


I am pretty excited. here is what I see now. On my crappy charts sorry about rambling..forgive me. hopefully someone see this or it helps them or they can help me;0

Sizz


EDIT I confused myself...my brain is all scrambled here is the right chart my target is 110.26 we would have been short from the demand of the 107.8 wahtever level buying on dips. possibly. confirmation came at 2008/1/8/10:00 H1 candle.

this sets up a mini range with the swing low being bottom and STILL 107.56 our main target. I would dance with price until she she hit that.

I uld also draw another fib from the swing low and walk it as well to try to pin point price I think...I am pretty sure..I am burnt I smell fermented grapes...
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  • #1,410
  • Jan 9, 2008 4:38pm Jan 9, 2008 4:38pm
Quoting Pip Hunter
Skunny posted it for me and anyone else that might have problems identifing R/S. He posted it because I mentioned it was a problem for me. BUT....he said shortly after posting the indicator that you definately should not use it to trade with
Guys,
The reason Skunny says not to trade with it, is that it repaints itself. So it is always correct in hindsight, but like all indicators it can't predict the future. However it can help you identify peaks/troughs of over a specified size, so it can be good to practice on.
  • #1,411
  • Jan 9, 2008 4:52pm Jan 9, 2008 4:52pm
Quoting dagoods
many of us have been trying very hard to develop a reliable system...and trying to perfect this stuff.... but for a simpleton like me....maybe its better to keep it simple

seems to me skunny has already given us a pretty dang reliable atm! IF you use good MM and are patient for certain set up(s) and have good sl that is...(in case you are wrong like I was on cable last night)

anyway Thanks Skunny!

personally i like consolidations and love to try to trade breakouts....

this chart is a thing of beauty IMO..... good luck all!
EUR/USD was a perfect consolidation trade last night, I messed around a little with USD/JPY before London, but I kept watching EUR/USD, then London opened and I waited, and waited, and waited, (almost fell asleep) and them BAMM!!! it finally broke to below 1.4699 and it was I nice ride down from there.......Skunny style.

Didn't get much sleep but made some pips.
trading naked.......
  • #1,412
  • Jan 9, 2008 5:08pm Jan 9, 2008 5:08pm
I have just run tests on a bunch of charts using that drivel I was spewing... it is everywhere... it is pip perfect I THINK so far

it is scary.if this is right .. I was so wrong..I was close but I was wrong..I was getting lucky..

..if I still am then doubly so. wrong that is.. here is what EJ might REALLY look like...which makes sense...

why didn't someone tell me about this?? maybe if i would shut my fat hole for one second eh??? lets see how she dance on a DEMO

yellow fib is the one I have never seen before. I am ging to do work with having two snaking fibs together maybe.. hmm my fib in london looked good but didn;t complete yet... Because it was counter fib move??

.. I was mixing moves in... like setting m15 fib for d1's target.. I was doomed. maybe,... hmm...hmm... maybe still am. I will get it.




Sizz.
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  • #1,413
  • Jan 9, 2008 5:31pm Jan 9, 2008 5:31pm
Quoting 24HourTrader
Here is some recent action on the Geppy. The arrows and check marks are what I consider as complete cycles. They are color coded by each cycle. The question is which of my currently running fibs on right side of screen is the current move following, that is to say which 138% to use for immediate future. All three have had their 0 or 100 level broken through, so we'll know which one soon (relatively speaking of course, with NY only right now I'm not getting too excited).
Hello and thank you all. I am learning so much from all of you. I have a question regarding the chart showing completed cycles. I am wondering if the big move down after the first completed cycle was actually the beginning of a new cycle? Is there a reason to disregard that move? Thanks again for all your help!
Mark
  • #1,414
  • Jan 9, 2008 5:36pm Jan 9, 2008 5:36pm
Sizz, it's hard for me to see your chart but I think your yellow fib is drawn wrong. The low is correct but once that low was reached you should have been waiting for the best resistance for it which should have been the bar with a high of 161.67. I believe on a 1hr chart it was the 6th bar after the low.

Please correct me if I'm wrong everyone, just trying to help.
  • #1,415
  • Jan 9, 2008 5:40pm Jan 9, 2008 5:40pm
Quoting MarkDabid
Hello and thank you all. I am learning so much from all of you. I have a question regarding the chart showing completed cycles. I am wondering if the big move down after the first completed cycle was actually the beginning of a new cycle? Is there a reason to disregard that move? Thanks again for all your help!
Mark

this is what i see on gj daily...hmmmmmm stradle?

hey sizzles............ lets demo this one on gj! should help us all... maybe we should look at weekly and monthly also....to see if we are going to run into any big trouble spots?

still learning

d
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  • #1,416
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:01pm Jan 9, 2008 6:01pm
d[/quote]

Alright Mr Dagoods

here is what I see tp 212.03 now based on price action is a go enter lets get small!!! ( I blew the chart up for you!!!) it is because I care


it is a good aread of confluence. Lets crush out some short pound yen.

I am so confused now. that UJ trade crushed my head.

i am learning too I am in front of the screen all day everyday fiddling with things. I feel like I am sooo close... then UJ happens.
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  • #1,417
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:30pm Jan 9, 2008 6:30pm
Quoting RBing
Sizz, it's hard for me to see your chart but I think your yellow fib is drawn wrong. The low is correct but once that low was reached you should have been waiting for the best resistance for it which should have been the bar with a high of 161.67. I believe on a 1hr chart it was the 6th bar after the low.

Please correct me if I'm wrong everyone, just trying to help.
Wrong for EJ?

It is? hmm I am so open to that. I have been drawing them a little differently...here is what i do


say on that UJ chart... say you agreed with the 109.5 right? well price banged into that...BOINNNNG now

I will fib the candle i am on when it stopped top to bottom and then depending on waht happens ( what way it goes) I will move the new zero or 100 to the HIT neg 132 or pos 132 candle close wick it isn't always pip perfect but you can scale down tfs and it starts to look good. a 0 or 100 remains good until breached setting a range.

I don;t look at 16 whatever if a 132 is pounded and price action tells me...

aka moves the opposite way my tp might be the other 132 or whatever... that is how I draw my fibs. It is not right because I am not 100%.

I may talk a big game but I am pretty unsure at this point(see that UJ chart) I am at the mercy of vhands and screen time. The one thing I do know is that I will work at it until I figure it out no matter what. It is worth it IMO. I am not going to quit.

does the swing low swing high work 100% IYO?

Sizz.
  • #1,418
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:33pm Jan 9, 2008 6:33pm
Quoting sizzler
d
Alright Mr Dagoods

here is what I see tp 212.03 now based on price action is a go enter lets get small!!! ( I blew the chart up for you!!!) it is because I care


it is a good aread of confluence. Lets crush out some short pound yen.

I am so confused now. that UJ trade crushed my head.

i am learning too I am in front of the screen all day everyday fiddling with things. I feel like I am sooo close... then UJ happens.[/quote]


my plan.... is not to care which way she breaks just going to DEMO a straddle above/below 0 and 100..... ON MY CHART as i drew the fibs.... with a tp just below 138 ext as tp area also a tight stop in case of penetration no break.... we'll see.... stay tuned for the next episode!
  • #1,419
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:28pm Jan 9, 2008 7:28pm
Quoting dagoods
my plan.... is not to care which way she breaks
That IS the key IMO. Caring about which way it breaks means guessing and hoping.

Every time I let the chart tell me which direction price is going with a defined target range it works out far better than when I used to try to make trades in the direction I thought it was going.

It really hit me yesterday that what you're describing and many others here are trading is precisely a straddle (as you said)... just waiting out a pre-defined range until a breakout occurs and playing the break.
  • #1,420
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:40pm Jan 9, 2008 7:40pm
[he next episode![/quote]


Good plan. Whatever works for you sah!

What if it retraces 1000 pips? Yowza... what if your fib is wrong and you get smizzled? Are you going to use sls if so? where I am scared and so is your demo money


here how it looks for me.

bad. Really bad.

hehehe

actually here is how I will play this:

I am short 3 bundles of 2 lots at 215.14

Sloppy entry. I took the entry off of my own chart but I could have scaled into 5 min to see whats up.

Optimal entry if I had looks would have been taken around the 61.8 I think at 215.44 short to 214 on down... yeah that was an exact 138 target hehehahaha my fibs say "138-ish"

now I fibbed the 5 minute with my terribly bad fibs and we are confirmed for a down break.. but hey.. my fibs? I expect to see an unprecedented rally back to 1980 que the brothers gibb

I should pull a costanza with my fibbing... fib it..then... do the exact opposite hehehe sheesh.

SHT 3x2 at 215.15
SL 215.7 if that is wrong I fear my analysis is wrong) by the books as I them Sl 217.6+

TP 212.03 ftp 212.10 will gauge trade and back out one bundle at logical # if it looks fishy. i would rather be happy then right any day. Except Monday. On Monday I am right.

Potential play would be to watch price action and look to add lots at down ward breakouts or after bounces or on logical numbers. discretionary.

Thoughts on this trade even though I am apparently so off my fib game this trade IMO is sound I would think about taking this if I were trading tonight.

I generally find though after I do any kind of Good.. I have a terrible trading session... oddly the same after having a terrible trading session..just worse


what a life..( there used to be a smiley face here but I maxed my quota on questionable emoticons.. so.. just imagine one. hehe. thanks. )

lets see so far so good... anyone else playing? if so how are you doing it ?

better then me? of course sigh hehehe

Sizz.
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