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My Daily Fozzy Trades

  • #81
  • Jan 8, 2007 2:26pm Jan 8, 2007 2:26pm
Quoting coolshades
eurgbp is shaping to meet both conditions.. lets see.
I just entered the EURBGP, short @ 0.6718. TP1=0.6692 TP2=0.6671 S/L=0.6740.

Like the trade:
= sell in big downtrend
= solarwind about to cross down
= R/R >1

Poek
  • #82
  • Jan 8, 2007 2:29pm Jan 8, 2007 2:29pm
Quoting poekmeister
Hi Willf, you seem to have nailed this one spot on! I took the EURCAD and am currently in for a los of 64 pips/lot. Similar with GBPCAD, loss of 159pip/lot. These 2 loss trades wipe out almost my entire pipprofit of last week....

You seem to talk from experience. Did you find any special tendencies with trades on big move-Fridays? e.g. never take a counter-trend trade as result of long counter-trend bar after News?

Poekmeister
EURCAD TRADE ATTACHED
I try not to let news affect my trading but it's sometimes difficult to ignore.

To be honest I probably wouldn't have taken the EURCAD & AUDCAD trades with or without the NFP news. Because they are both in a serious uptrend and in the past couple of months have not made it much past the tunnel. They keep getting near and bouncing back up.

Assuming they both keep heading North I will look to go long when they meet my criteria.
  • #83
  • Jan 8, 2007 2:31pm Jan 8, 2007 2:31pm
Quoting coolshades
...eurgbp is shaping to meet both conditions.. lets see.
Yes. Looks good so far. I will be on this one
  • #84
  • Jan 8, 2007 7:32pm Jan 8, 2007 7:32pm
Quoting poekmeister
Here is my GBPCAD trade that is currently in 160p/lot loss. I have been keeping a record of my trades last week and I have noticed that the S/L set on High/Low of the signal day in combination with fib TPs creates a rather low Reward-Risk ratio. This GBPCAD is a clear example...

Some ideas:
a) I have been tracking 70%ATR or nearest fib level as alternative stops which significantly increase the R-R ratio. Assuming that you risk 1% of equity per trade, you significantly increase the returns.
b) should we discard any trade with a R/R <1 ?

Anyone any thoughts?
Poek
I don't take trades with a reward:risk ratio less than one - you're putting a lot of pressure on the method to be right.

Like I said, I'm using 80%(atr) for my stops BUT if this means being inside a significant high/low, I like to wait for a retrace to get a better price - look at yesterday's USDCAD trade, my stop was foolishly under the previous day's high so you either increase your stop or enter at a better price if possible.

p.s. still in that trade - raised my stop to 1.1786+spread when noticed my mistake. have now moved down to 1.1782 (yesterday's high), same tp.

Watching GBPCHF for potential cross tmr
  • #85
  • Jan 9, 2007 9:09am Jan 9, 2007 9:09am
stopped out out USDCAD for 59 pips, 2 lots so -118 in total.

Have to look at the validity of taking two lots against an established trend - live and learn. That's why I'm doing this journal.

I'm sure other fozziers are doing better, usd/chf worked out well for example.

Tomorrow will likely see crosses for gbp/chf, usd/cad and even usd/jpy.

Michael
  • #86
  • Jan 9, 2007 12:18pm Jan 9, 2007 12:18pm
Just returned to see your excellent efforts in this thread, it encourages and helps everyone. Keep up the good work, I'll be following along!
  • #87
  • Jan 9, 2007 1:08pm Jan 9, 2007 1:08pm
I see two candidate trades (Wilff fozzy)....May I have your votes please?

GBPCHF - buy
= clear uptrend, just broke previous highs
= solarwind just turned green
=> looks solid

EURAUD - sell
= 100SMA>200SMA, 50SMA just crossed down 100SMA, no clear trend
= price is in congestion zone
= solarwind has been coming down for a long period with no price movement, now turned red
=> skeptical, so I am not trading

Poek
  • #88
  • Jan 9, 2007 2:44pm Jan 9, 2007 2:44pm
Quoting poekmeister
I see two candidate trades (Wilff fozzy)....May I have your votes please?

GBPCHF - buy
= clear uptrend, just broke previous highs
= solarwind just turned green
=> looks solid

EURAUD - sell
= 100SMA>200SMA, 50SMA just crossed down 100SMA, no clear trend
= price is in congestion zone
= solarwind has been coming down for a long period with no price movement, now turned red
=> skeptical, so I am not trading

Poek
GBPCHF Looks good. But is riding high on the vegas fibs.

EURAUD Has been kinda stuck in a narrow range for sometime. May make it to the next fib but will give this a miss.
  • #89
  • Jan 9, 2007 6:50pm Jan 9, 2007 6:50pm
First of all thanks bhoy for this thread i think it works nicely in conjunction with the fozzy thread. Secondly Willf and Beachbum, do you have your own fozzy threads or journals at all. I hope to start my own fozzy journal once I am experienced enough.
Taking Life One Pip At A Time I officially have my own opinion.
  • #90
  • Jan 9, 2007 8:03pm Jan 9, 2007 8:03pm
Trade 6

GBPCHF one lot
entry order@ 2.4040
s/l: 2.3952
t/p: 2.4150

not happy at taking opening price on this as 80%atr stop would be above yesterday's high.

Trade 7

USDCAD one lot
price: 1.1763
s/l: 1.1712
t/p: 1.1828

rejoining the strong uptrend and stop is under recent lows.

not taking the USDJPY cross today as it's looking quite choppy and near historic resistance.

So only one trade today, potentially two
  • #91
  • Jan 10, 2007 2:37am Jan 10, 2007 2:37am
since i came down with the flu.

however i wld only have taken the euraud with an initial t/p of 20 pips.. and then move to be..

wldnt have taken the usdchf since it was too close too the historical high.. steering clear of the yen for some time since we seem to have a love/hate relationship

usdcad was not a valid cross on my charts..rsi touched the ma but did not cross

eurgbp is doing well with over 34 pips profit..

my only problem is i am using oanda micro account and that doesnt translate to any real money.. will's comment that pips dont pay the mortgage resonates



Quoting the bhoy
Trade 6

GBPCHF one lot
entry order@ 2.4040
s/l: 2.3952
t/p: 2.4150

not happy at taking opening price on this as 80%atr stop would be above yesterday's high.

Trade 7

USDCAD one lot
price: 1.1763
s/l: 1.1712
t/p: 1.1828

rejoining the strong uptrend and stop is under recent lows.

not taking the USDJPY cross today as it's looking quite choppy and near historic resistance.

So only one trade today, potentially two
  • #92
  • Jan 10, 2007 8:04am Jan 10, 2007 8:04am
Mike...............I do not currently have a journal. If you have followed my postings in the Daily Fozzy Method thread, you know I posted weekly results for about 10 weeks last Fall. I have been out of the US for three weeks and will be gone again for five weeks beginning later this month. I don't have time to post, barely enough time to keep up with trading. When I return March 1, I may start a journal. In the meantime, there is more than enough info on this thread and the Daily Fozzy thread to get started and be successful. Take your time, develop your own Fozzy system and stick to it. You'll do very well! HTH



Quoting MikeC
First of all thanks bhoy for this thread i think it works nicely in conjunction with the fozzy thread. Secondly Willf and Beachbum, do you have your own fozzy threads or journals at all. I hope to start my own fozzy journal once I am experienced enough.
  • #93
  • Jan 10, 2007 8:18am Jan 10, 2007 8:18am
welcome back sensei you seem to be having an unusually warm winter..



Quoting BeachBum
Mike...............I do not currently have a journal. If you have followed my postings in the Daily Fozzy Method thread, you know I posted weekly results for about 10 weeks last Fall. I have been out of the US for three weeks and will be gone again for five weeks beginning later this month. I don't have time to post, barely enough time to keep up with trading. When I return March 1, I may start a journal. In the meantime, there is more than enough info on this thread and the Daily Fozzy thread to get started and be successful. Take your time, develop your own Fozzy system and stick to it. You'll do very well! HTH
  • #94
  • Edited 2:09pm Jan 10, 2007 1:57pm | Edited 2:09pm
Hi all, I see no good candidates for entering a trade today. So I stand aside.
It seems quiet all week, maybe we see some breakouts tomorrow...

Poekmeister
  • #95
  • Jan 10, 2007 6:41pm Jan 10, 2007 6:41pm
no signals today.

USDCAD is down slightly, GBPCHF order was not hit so deleted. Ho-hum.
  • #96
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:10pm Jan 11, 2007 1:10pm
I have entered two trades today.

GBPCAD:
+ signal today
+ trend is up
+ solarwind turned positive
+ price bounced up from tunnel (on GBP rate news)
+ there is plenty room to recent highs
+ R/R is 1,3 and 3,3
- price retraced quite a bit from intraday high

AUDJPY:
+ signal today
+ trend is up
+ solarwind turned positive
+ price bounced up from tunnel
+ there is plenty room to recent highs
+ R/R is 2,2 and 4,7
Attached Image
  • #97
  • Jan 11, 2007 3:39pm Jan 11, 2007 3:39pm
poek, may i know how you are calculating your s/l.. and also where are you based? you seem to be getting a candle at gmt-5?

thks

Quoting poekmeister
I have entered two trades today.

GBPCAD:
+ signal today
+ trend is up
+ solarwind turned positive
+ price bounced up from tunnel (on GBP rate news)
+ there is plenty room to recent highs
+ R/R is 1,3 and 3,3
- price retraced quite a bit from intraday high

AUDJPY:
+ signal today
+ trend is up
+ solarwind turned positive
+ price bounced up from tunnel
+ there is plenty room to recent highs
+ R/R is 2,2 and 4,7
  • #98
  • Jan 11, 2007 4:01pm Jan 11, 2007 4:01pm
Cool,
I am based in the Netherlands. I should be getting my candle at 0:00 CET. I use Metatrader NorthFinance which uses CET+1 time.

I take my trades at 20:00-22:00 CET in my evening so 2-4 hours before end of my day. This is when I have time to trade. So yes I take my trades around GMT-5.

Below is my spreadsheet that I have been using in last 2 weeks to track my attempts to trade fozzy-Willf. I have tracked 4 S/L techniques:
1. high/low of signal bar,
2. close-/+70% ATR (BB Fozzy),
3. close -/+50% ATR and
4. AltFib- the nearest Vegasfib level under the entryprice.


I have noticed that no 4 on average gives best R/R and has not caused not more losses then the other 3....with same 1% equity applied to each trade you will understand that this really 'powers' the fozzy method. In the graphs you can see the effect of applying MM and focusing on highest R/R ratios.

When I trade I tend to discretionary switch between 3 and 4. I aim for best R/R ratio however when the tighest stop feels to tight or not tight enough, I take the other one.

For the trades I posted earlier today, I have applied either -50% or my AltFib level.

Poek
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip PaperTrading - MyFozzy v2.zip   21 KB | 351 downloads
  • #99
  • Jan 11, 2007 4:14pm Jan 11, 2007 4:14pm
Here is an update of my trades. I have noticed several times before that if the signal is already given at CET-4 to CET-2 when I enter my trades, the price seems to go a couple of pips against the entry. Did anyone noticed this as well and experimented with e.g. setting up limit-entries and if not filled enter e.g. at CET 00:00 anyway?


Quoting poekmeister
I have entered two trades today.

GBPCAD:
+ signal today
+ trend is up
+ solarwind turned positive
+ price bounced up from tunnel (on GBP rate news)
+ there is plenty room to recent highs
+ R/R is 1,3 and 3,3
- price retraced quite a bit from intraday high

AUDJPY:
+ signal today
+ trend is up
+ solarwind turned positive
+ price bounced up from tunnel
+ there is plenty room to recent highs
+ R/R is 2,2 and 4,7
Attached Image
  • #100
  • Jan 11, 2007 7:48pm Jan 11, 2007 7:48pm
poek,

Great spreadsheet and great results, thanks for sharing, it certainly tells a lot. It will be interesting to see the results over a few months using the different S/L methods.

I just wanted to add something on MM (and apologies if I'm telling you something here you already know) which you may want to track which I find very valuable. You are sort of doing it with your equity curves but calculating maximum drawdown as you go along is always worthwhile.

Your max drawdown to date on say the fib S/L method is 3.94%. You're going to want a much bigger dataset before you start playing with position size, but in time you can adjust position size up or down to a drawdown level you are comfortable with.

Now for my disclaimer....this is by no means advice, just an observation and something I like to do...everyone's risk tolerance is different!

Only too happy to help you include a Max Drawdown calc in your spreadsheet if you want, otherwise keep up the great work!

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