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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,221
  • Jan 9, 2008 12:41pm Jan 9, 2008 12:41pm
Quoting juang
mr.philip,i want ask you ,if price below 89 sma than close above 21 ema than pull back 21 ema but close below 21 ema,so chance for signal buy more better than sell ?sorry my bad english ,thanks





"Together More Better Than Alone"

If it indicates the end of the downmove yes, then position will be long
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  • #10,222
  • Jan 9, 2008 12:55pm Jan 9, 2008 12:55pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
Entered at 1.4683
Stoploss 1.4718
1st TP at 200sma
2nd TP at 89sma unless 200sma prove to be support

Edit 1
50% closed at 1.4647. (was filled at 1.4648) Remainder set at BE

Edit 2
Pullback missed my BE by 3pips on the remainder

Edit 3
Price is stalling around 1.4665
i post the H1 chart to find out where u exactly enter the trade.
u entered after that tails which are reversal signs(your H4 closed just after that tails).didnt u afraid of that H1 tails?because i wanted to enter again exactly where u entered but that tails made me be out.
thx
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  • #10,223
  • Jan 9, 2008 1:00pm Jan 9, 2008 1:00pm
Info
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  • #10,224
  • Edited 1:13pm Jan 9, 2008 1:03pm | Edited 1:13pm
Quoting bshadroo
i post the H1 chart to find out where u exactly enter the trade.
u entered after that tails which are reversal signs(your H4 closed just after that tails).didnt u afraid of that H1 tails?because i wanted to enter again exactly where u entered but that tails made me be out.
thx
On the 1H yes but on the 4H it was still within the rhythm and I know that the rhythm was true therefore I entered on 4H graph and not 1H. The 4H graph showed the move towards the 200sma. Even after the close the R:R was still OK to 200sma

The 1.4700 was a resistance level for almost 2 weeks and the break down was most certainly going to be something to be in it.
  • #10,225
  • Edited Jan 10, 2008 10:21am Jan 9, 2008 4:13pm | Edited Jan 10, 2008 10:21am
I took TC on Aussie/dollar after bounce off the 21ema. Bought at .8813 using 1 hour entry (entered after high from first hour was taken out). Sorry my chart has different colors than the one you guys normally use. May take partial profit at .8850 (if we get there) and let the rest run because it took out previous high. 365 ma is around .8875 so could be next target. Only thing I'm nervous about is trade balance report in 2 and a half hours.

Edit: Still in Aussie, currently at .8880 for 67 pips profit. Will let it run up to .8900 and take half profit, move stop up to .8810 under newest swing low. If TL at 89 gets taken out there will be a big move up, this is what letting profits run is all about.
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  • #10,226
  • Jan 9, 2008 4:16pm Jan 9, 2008 4:16pm
written copy with chart of Phil's mp3, The Heart of This System
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf The Heart of This System Written Copy.pdf   44 KB | 6,610 downloads
  • #10,227
  • Jan 9, 2008 5:18pm Jan 9, 2008 5:18pm
Possible HS pattern on the EU....
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  • #10,228
  • Jan 9, 2008 5:20pm Jan 9, 2008 5:20pm
Watch for a bounce off this trend line....
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  • #10,229
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:26pm Jan 9, 2008 6:26pm
I have a question - especially for Palmer as I mainly trade TC after a trend is clearly defined by price action - such as Cable right now.

I have gone through about a year of 4H & 1H TC entries I have noticed that when price is fast on the 4H 8EMA, 1H pullback entries are reliable from the 8 21 area. And entry with 4H TC will usually miss the move when speed is 8EMA.

However many times the 1H pullback will give a false signal as the market speed changes to the 4H 21EMA & therefore the correct entry is on the 4H TC near the 21.

I have at best a gut feeling of price action if I should take the 1H entry or switch speed and wait for a TC on the 4H MACD. With your work on bladerunner can you help me be more objective on my 1H entry. I am not sure if you understand my question but basically when the market is fast (8EMA) I take TC entries on the 1H, when market is slower with speed on the 4H 21EMA I take TC entries on the 4H MACD. After endless hours of reviewing the charts I have a gut feeling what is playing out but was hoping to make it more objective. My trading style is focused on catching the large moves and riding till the end.

Thanks.
  • #10,230
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:45pm Jan 9, 2008 7:45pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
Thank you, Phillip. And thanks for the daily wrapup.
NEVER enter a trade JUST because you want to trade.
  • #10,231
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:09pm Jan 9, 2008 10:09pm
We wary of the Cable. BOE rate decision at 7AM est....
  • #10,232
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:35pm Jan 9, 2008 10:35pm
I have taken a long on the start of the new bar which was 2pm EST+10 Melbourne time.

there is 3 touches of support on the 200 Ma, Pa is above 89 so looks bullish price is in a band now but from measuring the band depth into the trend it still remains in a bullish position. This could be a top or a band for a break out, time will tell. the MACD touched the -15 and moved off it showing a round bottom (not the best example).

I am in at 14682.5
Stop loss at 14652

Good trading

PS the 200$ on the aud trade is a demo trade sadly!
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  • #10,233
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:35pm Jan 9, 2008 10:35pm
Quoting EricthePip
We wary of the Cable. BOE rate decision at 7AM est....
Don't forget about ECB too and Trichet's statement.....


P.S. NOT that this will happen in the wildest of dreams....But wouldn't it be neato if BOE raised rates tomorrow (LOL!)....we could make an aweful lot of pips on the way back up.....AGAIN, I'M ONLY JOKING...THIS WILL NOT EVEN BE A REMOTE POSSIBLITY...IF ANYTHING IT WILL BE A SURPRISE CUT AGAIN (which I think has already gotten priced into the market).
  • #10,234
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:56pm Jan 9, 2008 10:56pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Don't forget about ECB too and Trichet's statement.....


P.S. NOT that this will happen in the wildest of dreams....But wouldn't it be neato if BOE raised rates tomorrow (LOL!)....we could make an aweful lot of pips on the way back up.....AGAIN, I'M ONLY JOKING...THIS WILL NOT EVEN BE A REMOTE POSSIBLITY...IF ANYTHING IT WILL BE A SURPRISE CUT AGAIN (which I think has already gotten priced into the market).

Hey pips, do you know how a rate cut might effect the eur/gbp?
  • #10,235
  • Edited 3:42am Jan 10, 2008 12:29am | Edited 3:42am
Quoting JimTatum
Hey pips, do you know how a rate cut might effect the eur/gbp?

Hi JimTatum!

Hmmm...I lost my original post...so I must retype....

You are talking UK cut, correct?

Here is my thinking on it: (and first off I don't trade the pair, so I can't give specific levels to watch -- do know it is at all time highs and trending nicely).

First, If the UK cuts rates and ECB statement is somewhat hawkish to very hawkish (look for "strongly viligant" in relation to inflationary concerns andfor inflationary factors to out weigh growth concerns) -- then expect the Euro to strengthen considerably against the pound. Currently, I think a cut is being priced into all the cable pairs, so any significant rise is going to depend on Trichet's actions. If the UK holds steady, we may actually see Cable strengthen a little against the euro and the dollar (at least temporarily). Also, the trade balance from UK should spark a bit of movement in the market ahead of the announcement should it print a surprise (especially better than).

My battery is dying...let me send this now...finish later...

back...just wanted to add that if ECB pumps liquidity into the market at the same time as statement w/strong inflationary bias, then forget paying attn to the words...actions will speak louder.
  • #10,236
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:26am Jan 10, 2008 1:26am
I have found that GBP/USD has touched the 89SMA right now, we should pay more attention about this, it would be the resistant, am I right?

GBP/USD weekly chart
http://www.sinaimg.cn/cj/pc/2008-01-...0110152349.jpg
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #10,237
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:52am Jan 10, 2008 1:52am
Phillip - definitely the best document you have uploaded in your thread . Let's hope it stops all of us from rushing the trades and playing out of the rhytm.

Thanks
Michael
  • #10,238
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:55am Jan 10, 2008 1:55am
i sold eu on h1 chart.how does it looks?
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  • #10,239
  • Jan 10, 2008 2:00am Jan 10, 2008 2:00am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
I have taken a long on the start of the new bar which was 2pm EST+10 Melbourne time.

there is 3 touches of support on the 200 Ma, Pa is above 89 so looks bullish price is in a band now but from measuring the band depth into the trend it still remains in a bullish position. This could be a top or a band for a break out, time will tell. the MACD touched the -15 and moved off it showing a round bottom (not the best example).

I am in at 14682.5
Stop loss at 14652

Good trading

PS the 200$ on the aud trade is a demo trade sadly!
closed out my position for a 9 pip loss bad feeling about this trade.
  • #10,240
  • Jan 10, 2008 2:08am Jan 10, 2008 2:08am
hi everyone... my EU short order got triggered on 50% retracement @1.4690 ..
i took some risk cuz interest rate is comin' up. closing the trade before the news comes in
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