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  • #601
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:30am Jan 8, 2008 11:30am
Quoting mike w
I am waiting it out on the eur/usd and gbp.usd to jump in. It still has a little more upwards movement based on the 4 hour charts and with that, I'd like to see around 1.9750 before shorting. The Euro is testing the resistance right now and so I would like to see one more run up on it as well and then a breach downwards.

We saw the cable at a higher level, even more so than 1.9750, although that's where I got in at. Fibs are great, ladies and gentlemen; Learn them.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #602
  • Jan 8, 2008 11:43am Jan 8, 2008 11:43am
I'm waiting for the daily bars for today. It looks like a classic mvoe I've seen a hundred times...I just don't know what to call it. lol Anyways, I am looking out for most yen pairs to form pin bars on the dailies to see further downside. If and when they do, I plan on shorting. I won't be back on here for the rest of the day but I will be back later tonight.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #603
  • Jan 8, 2008 1:25pm Jan 8, 2008 1:25pm
Quoting mike w
Hi Bones, like most newcomers to the market, you have it backwards. You need to trade the higher timeframes and then move to the lower once you have the experience needed in order to trade them efficiently. Scalping, to me, is not where it's at; Big moves on the larger timeframes are. I think you need to step away from the lower timeframes i.e. hourly and lower, and give the higher timeframes a shot. Yeah, you'll get bored and impatient waiting for trades, but your trading will become a lot more profitable. I'd be glad to try and help you understand how the market works and how to spot A trades if possible.
Ok Mike I have shut everthing under 4 hr
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #604
  • Jan 8, 2008 9:34pm Jan 8, 2008 9:34pm
Quoting Bones
Ok Mike I have shut everthing under 4 hr
Excellent first step Bones!

OK, for today, the daily closes for today on several pairs are looking as if they could play out as good trades. First, I will show what pairs look good on the daily and then I will move into the 4 hour showing why some are better probability trades than others.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #605
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:20pm Jan 8, 2008 10:20pm
I am actually going to get some sleep and do the update in 4 hours time for the next 4 hour bar close. That bar and the coming bars should show us a lot of opportunity for a few pairs across the board.

The pairs that I looked at for the daily were the eur/jpy, eur/nzd, gbp/jpy, nzd/jpy, gbp/chf, usd/ jpy, and the gbp/usd. Once I find alignment on the 4 hour charts at a good price to go into trades, I will use this as my precursor for those trades. In other words, these pairs showed stron price action on the daily charts and so now this is the list that I would choose from to take trades.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #606
  • Jan 9, 2008 8:33am Jan 9, 2008 8:33am
Sorry I never updated last night everyone, but I was beat. I posted a few trades on a few of the pairs I talked about and they are, for the most part, in the green (We still didn't finish on a few yet).

For today, I'm looking to see another drop in the usd/chf based on the four hour charts. It's facing resistance right now and I doubt it will make it through.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #607
  • Jan 9, 2008 9:12am Jan 9, 2008 9:12am
As you can see on the 4 hour Usd/Chf chart, we are having a test of the resistance level, but I doubt we would push through now that it closed as a fairly pinnish bar. My other charts haven't closed yet, they close in an hour so we'll see then.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf fo journal fo hour.gif Size: 13 KB
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #608
  • Jan 9, 2008 9:57am Jan 9, 2008 9:57am
Quoting mike w
As you can see on the 4 hour Usd/Chf chart, we are having a test of the resistance level, but I doubt we would push through now that it closed as a fairly pinnish bar. My other charts haven't closed yet, they close in an hour so we'll see then.
mike w,

i like the simple chart. what are the two red moving avgs? btw, thx for the pm.
  • #609
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:01am Jan 9, 2008 10:01am
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
mike w,

i like the simple chart. what are the two red moving avgs? btw, thx for the pm.
Sure thing. The two moving averages are exponential moving averages plotted out to 24 and 28. These mimic fib levels and basically show where a support and resistance can be found. They are basically dynamic fib levels. They work much better, as everything, on higher timeframes.

I'm going to start posting charts again more often... I think people learn much better with the visual aspect of a chart. On the usd/chf trade that I've taken, we couldn't break the resistance. I entered again at the high around 1.1166. I'm lookingto see more downside from here as we got the retracement needed on the 4 hour and the 8 hour charts.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #610
  • Jan 9, 2008 12:19pm Jan 9, 2008 12:19pm
It looks good to me to add more cad/jpy shorts at this area. It's a safe bet with minimal risk. If it were to move against, I'd only be risking a few pips.

All timeframes are lining up for it and so this looks like a solid pinpoint area to add into the position. The 2 hour chart just came in bearish, which to me, doesn't hold much value. It should push price further down to continue lower by the 4 hour close though.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #611
  • Jan 9, 2008 12:24pm Jan 9, 2008 12:24pm
Check out the lowering trendline on Cad/Jpy for the 30 minute chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cajpy foooo journal.gif Size: 14 KB
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #612
  • Jan 9, 2008 12:41pm Jan 9, 2008 12:41pm
Quoting mike w
As you can see on the 4 hour Usd/Chf chart, we are having a test of the resistance level, but I doubt we would push through now that it closed as a fairly pinnish bar. My other charts haven't closed yet, they close in an hour so we'll see then.

I learned recently that usd/chf is opposite correlation to g/u??? is this true? i've been wathing it and it sure seems to be.... so if u/chf down then gu up?
thanks in advance mike!
  • #613
  • Jan 9, 2008 12:45pm Jan 9, 2008 12:45pm
Quoting dagoods
I learned recently that usd/chf is opposite correlation to g/u??? is this true? i've been wathing it and it sure seems to be.... so if u/chf down then gu up?
thanks in advance mike!
Hey Dagoods, I don't put too much emphasis on correlations because sooner or later that correlation will diminish. Notice how the DOW was correlated with the Gbp/Jpy and then when they seperated, correlation traders were stuck.
Normally, it's an inverse of the Eur/Usd though. Looking more into the Usd/Chf, I think it's going to take a while to see price drop.

We got in just in the nick of time for that Cad/Jpy before it dropped after facing the lowering trendline. I look to see price move back up into the 30's and then continue on downwards.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #614
  • Edited 2:37pm Jan 9, 2008 2:19pm | Edited 2:37pm
mike,

i was just looking at cad/jpy and it looks like a h&s has formed. best tf to view it is the 1h. is this a proper h&s?

edit: didnt mean to intrude on your analysis...just tryin to get ure opinion
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpyh&s.jpg Size: 56 KB
  • #615
  • Jan 9, 2008 2:28pm Jan 9, 2008 2:28pm
Mike, W.

Many thanks for your reply to my original question. I will heed your advice.

I, like many novice traders, appreciate the assistance that people like you, offer us. So I look forward to more input from your Journal.

Happy trading days ahead.
  • #616
  • Jan 9, 2008 2:36pm Jan 9, 2008 2:36pm
Daddy

Thanks for posting for us your CadYen chart, good observation on your side.

I am interested in trading CadYen too, can you please tell me which charting package do you use for it. It does look a bit like metatrader perhaps? My m4 charts does not have CadYen as an option. I currently use VT trader charts for this one, but they are not too user friendly.

Many thanks in advance
  • #617
  • Jan 9, 2008 2:46pm Jan 9, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting FxPip
Daddy

Thanks for posting for us your CadYen chart, good observation on your side.

I am interested in trading CadYen too, can you please tell me which charting package do you use for it. It does look a bit like metatrader perhaps? My m4 charts does not have CadYen as an option. I currently use VT trader charts for this one, but they are not too user friendly.

Many thanks in advance
i sent you a pm. this is supposed to be mike w's thread. my mistake
  • #618
  • Jan 9, 2008 3:13pm Jan 9, 2008 3:13pm
Thanks so much! You have been very helpful.
  • #619
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:35pm Jan 9, 2008 7:35pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
mike,

i was just looking at cad/jpy and it looks like a h&s has formed. best tf to view it is the 1h. is this a proper h&s?

edit: didnt mean to intrude on your analysis...just tryin to get ure opinion
There's no reason to apologize for good analysis! Keep it comin. I actually ended up closing that position today at like 2:30 when it hit 208. I look to see further downside but I am seeing nothing in terms of Price action at the moment to allow me a trade entry. If and once I do, then I look to be short again.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #620
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:37pm Jan 9, 2008 7:37pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
i sent you a pm. this is supposed to be mike w's thread. my mistake

Talk all you want to in here guys, that's how we learn together. This isn't a set thread just for me. It has my name in it, but that doesn't make it mine. I intended for this to be an educational experience for myself and others.
I dream, therefore I become.
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