Indicator Free Trading - Skunny | Page 69 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

How to free indicator resources? indicator called from EA 7 replies

COT trading system with free indicator 297 replies

No Free Lunch but all the Free Coffee you can drink 736 replies

SWAP free, rollover free Broker? 15 replies

Attachments: Indicator Free Trading - Skunny
Exit Attachments

Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #1,361
  • Jan 9, 2008 5:01am Jan 9, 2008 5:01am
Heres what I saw this morning on cable.....off the 60 min chart there was the big fall to 1.9574 into Dec 24 then a weak bounce back up to 2.100 - around the 38% retrace. The fibs off this gave extensions of 1.9620 and 1.9540. The latest action on this chart was the bounce from 9650 to 9829 and I carried these levels down to my 15 min chart.

Fibbing the drop into the Asian session low of 9705 I saw that the bounce was weak, failing at 9761 - I then used this range on my 5 min chart, giving a first downside targets of 9684 - I went short just after the FO.

Drilling down to a 1 min chart, there was a swift fall of 56 pips to.....9684!, where price stalled and I exited - more than 50% of cables daily range in 30 mins makes me book some profit! The bounce got up to the 62% retrace with with a lower high to confirm another short just after the LO - the Brits sold it too for a great run down with the higher level target off the 60 min chart getting hit.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpus 60m jan 9.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpus 15m jan 9.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpus 1m jan 9.gif Size: 13 KB
Attached Image
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,362
  • Jan 9, 2008 5:08am Jan 9, 2008 5:08am
Quoting Skunny
Sorry Bob, I didn't post the chart as a trade, although it was. Remember Bob you need to learn this in pieces. My point I made before about taking trades off the S/R lines is something you can't do until you retrade a ton of data on Vhands or something similar. The point I was making, is you can do it successfully (I rarely take that trade unless I know it goes for 70-100pips.). GY is best for those kind of trades, but you need to practice. It is more efficient on the target areas of s/r (where most don't know exists until they are there).

I think we are getting too complicated right now for some, so let's keep it simple. I'm not going to teach anyone how to take a specific trade, but I'll try to help with your preparation to trade and get you thinking a bit different. Stay focused on the message and practice the ideals.
Ok guys...and (gals if any)

I went back to the beginning trying to see what I am missing. Most of you are posting charts that are the break of s/r in the direction of the 38 extensions. According to Skunny's quote above, he rarely takes these kinds of trades....so....not putting words in your mouth skunny, but you must feel uncomfortable with those because of the head fakes that can occur??? Anyway, I don't like trading it like that myself which goes back to previous posts I have written. Skunny....anyone.....care to clarify more. This goes back to my argument of placing stops. Skunny had mentioned also in other posts about only taking a few pips out of the market rather than going for a bundle of them, so in that case, his mm must be incredibly good and he must be pretty "certain" that he can get those few pips and I know he is not trading with a 50 pip S/L to get 10 pips....or I would assume so.

Just trying to get more boundries here. I understand this premise of the "break out" but to me, I just can't see how you can get good R/R from trading the breaks like many of the charts are showing. If the market is trending then yes you can, but in consolidation????? If I am wrong about my conclusions, I will accept it. I am basing this on my 2 years of trading a live account, which grows and then retreats. I don't trade breaks...maybe I should start.

Feed back is definitely welcome.

Daniel
  • #1,363
  • Jan 9, 2008 5:16am Jan 9, 2008 5:16am
Quoting 4X4EVER
Ok guys...and (gals if any)

I went back to the beginning trying to see what I am missing. Most of you are posting charts that are the break of s/r in the direction of the 38 extensions. According to Skunny's quote above, he rarely takes these kinds of trades....so....not putting words in your mouth skunny, but you must feel uncomfortable with those because of the head fakes that can occur??? Anyway, I don't like trading it like that myself which goes back to previous posts I have written. Skunny....anyone.....care to clarify more. This goes back to my argument of placing stops. Skunny had mentioned also in other posts about only taking a few pips out of the market rather than going for a bundle of them, so in that case, his mm must be incredibly good and he must be pretty "certain" that he can get those few pips and I know he is not trading with a 50 pip S/L to get 10 pips....or I would assume so.

Just trying to get more boundries here. I understand this premise of the "break out" but to me, I just can't see how you can get good R/R from trading the breaks like many of the charts are showing. If the market is trending then yes you can, but in consolidation????? If I am wrong about my conclusions, I will accept it. I am basing this on my 2 years of trading a live account, which grows and then retreats. I don't trade breaks...maybe I should start.

Feed back is definitely welcome.

Daniel
What is the post number on this?
Robonacci com
  • #1,364
  • Jan 9, 2008 5:21am Jan 9, 2008 5:21am
Quoting Skunny
What is the post number on this?

Skunny,
It is post #17 which refers to the following chart you posted in post #11
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #1,365
  • Jan 9, 2008 5:54am Jan 9, 2008 5:54am
Quoting 4X4EVER
Ok guys...and (gals if any)

I went back to the beginning trying to see what I am missing. Most of you are posting charts that are the break of s/r in the direction of the 38 extensions. According to Skunny's quote above, he rarely takes these kinds of trades....so....not putting words in your mouth skunny, but you must feel uncomfortable with those because of the head fakes that can occur??? Anyway, I don't like trading it like that myself which goes back to previous posts I have written. Skunny....anyone.....care to clarify more. This goes back to my argument of placing stops. Skunny had mentioned also in other posts about only taking a few pips out of the market rather than going for a bundle of them, so in that case, his mm must be incredibly good and he must be pretty "certain" that he can get those few pips and I know he is not trading with a 50 pip S/L to get 10 pips....or I would assume so.

Just trying to get more boundries here. I understand this premise of the "break out" but to me, I just can't see how you can get good R/R from trading the breaks like many of the charts are showing. If the market is trending then yes you can, but in consolidation????? If I am wrong about my conclusions, I will accept it. I am basing this on my 2 years of trading a live account, which grows and then retreats. I don't trade breaks...maybe I should start.

Feed back is definitely welcome.

Daniel
What this conversation was referring to is - what constitutes a break/penetration/breach. It was also referring to taking a trade off the pull back of the target (thus the "I only take these trades for 70-100"). It had nothing to do with trading in specific, but in general. It was just an example of how...when you learn how PA reacts to certain S/R you can make a number of different trades.

I'm not quit sure what your missing Daniel. There isn't a system here (maybe that's it) I haven't showed you how I specifically trade. I'm just trying to create an atmosphere from which you can figure out how to trade it (for now anyway).

The beginning of the thread is just proof on how I got myself into this mess. The intent wasn't to spill the information you now hold in your sweaty little palms. Although I'm fine with it, it just wasn't the original intent. It was just to show the na sayers that you can learn how to trade, you don't need indicators. I think I've accomplished that to some degree. or maybe not...lol.
Robonacci com
  • #1,366
  • Edited 10:37am Jan 9, 2008 5:59am | Edited 10:37am
Hi Daniel - whilst I am posting a good number of charts, hoping for feed back to confirm if these are a valid interpretation of what Skunny is telling us, I am not using them for break out trading as such. Been there, dont like it.

Obviously, the lower the time frame, the more often a breakout of a trading range will happen, BUT I am looking for a pull back to an internal fibo level and a reaction around that level to give me an entry to continue with the trend from the higher TF. By definition, when the trend continues there will be a breakout of the lower TF and so on up through the TFs that I'm watching.

I'm finding the 138 and 162 extensions VERY helpful in setting targets and as seen on my 1 min chart posted earlier, some of the lower TF targets will run into the more important higher TF target - here the 1.9640 purple one from the earlier 60 min chart.

Also, it helps if you are totally familiar with the "normal" action and daily range of the pair you are trading.

Still very much "work in progress" and feed back appreciated.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,367
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:07am Jan 9, 2008 6:07am
Quoting joyrider
Hi Islander,

How do you get your fibs in separate place individually in the same screen. Mine clutter everywhere and can't read at all. Thanks.
When you have fixed the first point of your fib and you get to your second level, the closer to vertical your red dashed line, the shorter horizontal lines - just move it around to pick up the level you need and then back towards the vertical to reduce its amplitude. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,368
  • Edited 6:17am Jan 9, 2008 6:16am | Edited 6:17am
Quoting 4X4EVER
...Most of you are posting charts that are the break of s/r in the direction of the 38 extensions. According to Skunny's quote above, he rarely takes these kinds of trades....so....not putting words in your mouth skunny, but you must feel uncomfortable with those because of the head fakes that can occur??? Anyway, I don't like trading it like that myself which goes back to previous posts I have written. Skunny....anyone.....care to clarify more. This goes back to my argument of placing stops. ....

Just trying to get more boundries here. I understand this premise of the "break out" but to me, I just can't see how you can get good R/R from trading the breaks like many of the charts are showing. If the market is trending then yes you can, but in consolidation????? If I am wrong about my conclusions, I will accept it. I am basing this on my 2 years of trading a live account, which grows and then retreats. I don't trade breaks...maybe I should start.

Feed back is definitely welcome.
Daniel
Hi Daniel,
From what I have read in this thread, you ar right about Skunny not liking the RR on trading breaks on big Fib . Though he has not (to my uncertain knowledge) said anything about not trading breaks on small Fib ranges.
The people whom I consider expert at trading breaks will only trade the 2nd break as in probe, retrace, break (of the probe).
I cannot trade that way, because I can't watch the screen enough, so I have to put in orders at specific levels in advance. However I did back test the 2007 1hr E/J (with my criteria for fuzzyness, and my choices of Fib pulls, and my choice of SLs{ always just beyound the opposite FIB line} and doing a stop& reverse). I got decent figures out of the test where I only entered after a close beyound the 0%/100% followed by a pullback to the 23%/78.6% Fib line. Though the test with the straight 0%/100% break gave more pips in total (nearly twice as many pips, but with over 3 times as many trades and bigger SLs - so for live trading many of the Sls would have been too big for my account).

Why don't you do what Skunny has repeatedly suggested and test out different methods of taking the Fib trades by using vhands ,or as I did it (on MT4) by using the F12 key to step forward 1 bar at a time. Then you can see what works , what does not , and what you are most comfortable with.
Ian
  • #1,369
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:20am Jan 9, 2008 6:20am
Quoting Islander
Hi Daniel - whilst I am posting a good number of charts, hoping for feed back to confirm if these are a valid interpretation of what Skunny is telling us, I am not using them for break out trading as such. Been there, don't like it.

Obviously, the lower the time frame, the more often a breakout of a trading range will happen, BUT I am looking for a pull back to an internal fibo level and a reaction around that level to give me an entry to continue with the trend from the higher TF. By definition, when the trend continues there will be a breakout of the lower TF and so one up through the TFs that I'm watching.

I'm finding the 138 and 162 extensions VERY helpful in setting targets and as seen on my 1 min chart posted earlier, some of the lower TF targets will run into the more important higher TF target - here the 1.9640 purple one from the earlier 60 min chart.

Also, it helps if you are totally familiar with the "normal" action and daily range of the pair you are trading.

Still very much "work in progress" and feed back appreciated.
Nice Islander

Let me see if I can help some more. The points of entry I've shown aren't necessarily something you should do.

If you are going to get in on penetration you may want to use 1/4 of your original lot size (here I go doing things I said I wouldn't) in case it moves against you and then maybe add 1/4 at the 38 and another at the 62 or whatever you want. If you don't have a position on penetration you may miss the runaway train. (which is fine to). But if you wait 8 hours to get in the trade you may be waiting for awhile for another trade to form if you aren't in at penetration. It's all up to you guys and it's different for me every time (there is more to consider). It might be the key to the "moley quail".

I mean not having a system is the key...LOL
Robonacci com
  • #1,370
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:26am Jan 9, 2008 6:26am
Just in case you think I discriminate against the E/U. I also added extra color this time for your viewing pleasure.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wedgieeu.gif Size: 18 KB
Robonacci com
  • #1,371
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:27am Jan 9, 2008 6:27am
That wedgie looks like Pacman getting ready to eat some pips
  • #1,372
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:33am Jan 9, 2008 6:33am
Quoting Islander
Heres what I saw this morning on cable.....off the 60 min chart there was the big fall to 1.9574 into Dec 24 then a weak bounce back up to 2.100 - around the 38% retrace. The fibs off this gave extensions of 1.9620 and 1.9540. The latest action on this chart was the bounce from 9650 to 9829 and I carried these levels down to my 15 min chart.

Fibbing the drop into the Asian session low of 9705 I saw that the bounce was weak, failing at 9761 - I then used this range on my 5 min chart, giving a first downside targets of 9684 - I went short just after the FO.

Drilling down to a 1 min chart, there was a swift fall of 56 pips to.....9684!, where price stalled and I exited - more than 50% of cables daily range in 30 mins makes me book some profit! The bounce got up to the 62% retrace with with a lower high to confirm another short just after the LO - the Brits sold it too for a great run down with the higher level target off the 60 min chart getting hit.
You seem like your having a good time

Having said that I need to assess you with a 5min misconduct penalty for charts #1 and #3 in this post.:surprised
Robonacci com
  • #1,373
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:34am Jan 9, 2008 6:34am
Quoting bronxterp
That wedgie looks like Pacman getting ready to eat some pips

Robonacci com
  • #1,374
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:45am Jan 9, 2008 6:45am
Unfortunately I have to get going to my J.O.B. in a few minutes, but thought I would post a chart for comment. I posted one similar to this the other day. This is a daily on GBP/JPY. My first fibs pulled are in green from the 2nd wave/cycle decline in late July early August with target of 209.86. We have obviously broken below the "zero line" on this now. Given the severity of the down move in the last few weeks, I expected (a dangerous trading word!) a bigger retracement, at least to near the zero line before commencing down again. At this point we have yet to see much of a pullback...not even 38.2%. The 2nd set of fibs is the recent breakdown out of the months long trading range.

Normally, I'd like to look at a 1 hour chart, but again, the dang job is tying up my time right now so I am looking a little bigger picture...for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy daily.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #1,375
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:19am Jan 9, 2008 7:19am
Having said that I need to assess you with a 5min misconduct penalty for charts #1 and #3 in this post.:surprised

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif Darn it, fell foul of the 200 EMA.....but at least we dont have Miss Whiplash in this thread!!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,376
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:24am Jan 9, 2008 7:24am
Quoting Islander
Having said that I need to assess you with a 5min misconduct penalty for charts #1 and #3 in this post.:surprised

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif Darn it, fell foul of the 200 EMA.....but at least we dont have Miss Whiplash in this thread!!

Robonacci com
  • #1,377
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:45am Jan 9, 2008 7:45am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Daniel,
From what I have read in this thread, you ar right about Skunny not liking the RR on trading breaks on big Fib . Though he has not (to my uncertain knowledge) said anything about not trading breaks on small Fib ranges.
The people whom I consider expert at trading breaks will only trade the 2nd break as in probe, retrace, break (of the probe).
I cannot trade that way, because I can't watch the screen enough, so I have to put in orders at specific levels in advance. However I did back test the 2007 1hr E/J (with my criteria for fuzzyness, and my choices of Fib pulls, and my choice of SLs{ always just beyound the opposite FIB line} and doing a stop& reverse). I got decent figures out of the test where I only entered after a close beyound the 0%/100% followed by a pullback to the 23%/78.6% Fib line. Though the test with the straight 0%/100% break gave more pips in total (nearly twice as many pips, but with over 3 times as many trades and bigger SLs - so for live trading many of the Sls would have been too big for my account).

Why don't you do what Skunny has repeatedly suggested and test out different methods of taking the Fib trades by using vhands ,or as I did it (on MT4) by using the F12 key to step forward 1 bar at a time. Then you can see what works , what does not , and what you are most comfortable with.
Ian

Thanks for the clarification. I guess it's back to the testing board once again.
I guess I am not seeing the forest for the trees.

Thanks again!!!
  • #1,378
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:54am Jan 9, 2008 7:54am
Just a quick note before I shut down for the day. Bo just posted in his thread that we have been talking about how we can help newer/misguided traders get up to speed on their trading skills. We are going to start a new thread in the beginner section. This thread will simply explore the possibility of a trading skills workshop. From PM's and emails we've gotten, it seems there is a tremendous need for this and nobody is helping (that I know anyway) and it's a shame. Sure there are seminars that will charge you $4k and give you a heap of material to decipher, but we aren't talking about that.

We will let you know when it's up so you can give us some feedback. I just wanted to confirm Bo's post on his thread (before I leave).

See ya later tonight, if I survive my day
Robonacci com
  • #1,379
  • Edited 8:12am Jan 9, 2008 7:54am | Edited 8:12am
t's all up to you guys and it's different for me every time (there is more to consider). It might be the key to the "moley quail".

I mean not having a system is the key...LOL

I'll be happy for more to consider when you are happy to show us.

Mmm......I wonder if the key is about flexibility and adapting to the current market conditions?
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,380
  • Edited 10:18am Jan 9, 2008 10:14am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting Skunny
I'm not quit sure what your missing Daniel. There isn't a system here (maybe that's it) I haven't showed you how I specifically trade. I'm just trying to create an atmosphere from which you can figure out how to trade it (for now anyway).

The beginning of the thread is just proof on how I got myself into this mess. The intent wasn't to spill the information you now hold in your sweaty little palms. Although I'm fine with it, it just wasn't the original intent. It was just to show the na sayers that you can learn how to trade, you don't need indicators. I think I've accomplished that to some degree. or maybe not...lol.

Daniel: Not to worry....you will get it.....be patient and it will come to you.....like Skunny says, there is no system being taught here; just concepts. When I started out on this thread, I got somewhat anxious when it seemed that others were grasping something I did not. My advice: re-read the entire thread....note the key concepts.....practice, practice, practice.

In general: I went 9 for 9 today with 1 break-even. Not saying this to brag but just to say that I think I'm just starting to get what Skunny is talking about....trading perfect. I'll probably screw up tomorrow but that is part of learning!

I now see the problem in trading with indicators (for me). Trading an indi-system ties your hands in regard to creativity.....there is little latitude short of trying to optimize.....but because of the lag, there will always be times when things don't work the way they are supposed to. Trading with just PA/SR has just opened up all sorts of new ideas on how to approach a trade. The idea that I could have 2 trades in opposite directions and they both end up in profit blows me away. My mind is racing with things to look at in the context of what I have been doing with this stuff....scaling in for MM purposes.....looking at confluence to ID major turning points....working backwards from congestion points....lots to think about....

.....Which, was what I think Skunny's whole point was here. Not to give us a system....but throw out some concepts for us to run with.

What I have been doing is still a lot of work-in-progress. As I've tried to emphasize before, it may be nothing to do with where Skunny will ultimately take this thread.....but I've found some stuff that looks to be working (for me...for now). Of course; I'm certainly open to learning more!! (those Gann lines SCARE me....lol)

I guess my point in all this rambling is to say:

- I feel like I can now trade with no indicators
- I feel like I can manage my risk better than ever
- I'm not following anyone's specific system
- Watching just PA (and not indicators) is really giving me a "feel" for the flow of the market's moves
- I feel like I can make money doing this
- I feel like I just might be able to find my own Moley Quail

As always.....IMHO.....

Good luck to all.....I'm liking this journey that we are on!
6 traders viewing now