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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #8,661
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:35am Jan 8, 2008 10:35am
Quoting HipsterPipster
Short scalp on uj off of pzz, e-109.68
Good stuff,
well done Hip.
  • #8,662
  • Jan 8, 2008 12:26pm Jan 8, 2008 12:26pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Nico,

I PMed you as well. I will give you an example of how I trade breakouts, but for those that are in the James16 PF, will know it is a large topic so here is an example of a pair I am looking at.


The AUD/NZD has put in a sharp move down. Price has now entered into a retracement channel. So After this channel, breaks and retests the channel, we can look for confirming price action .
I don't understand why you are waiting for a retest of the channel after it breaks before you look for a trade. Why not not just look for PA suggesting a move downward? That plus a trendline break is not enough confirmation for you? Are you not scared that assuming the price does break down resuming it's downward spiral that there may not be a retest and you will lose your entry?
  • #8,663
  • Jan 8, 2008 1:27pm Jan 8, 2008 1:27pm
Quoting saskgui
I don't understand why you are waiting for a retest of the channel after it breaks before you look for a trade. Why not not just look for PA suggesting a move downward? That plus a trendline break is not enough confirmation for you? Are you not scared that assuming the price does break down resuming it's downward spiral that there may not be a retest and you will lose your entry?
It is just a very commonly used technique to wait for a retest of the area. This is MY confirmation that the previous area held. Waiting for a pure break can lead to a lot of false entries. Often time we are just running stops in these areas. By waiting for a retest, or a retest then a continuation we are getting the confirmation. There are tons of ways to play breakouts, this is just the way I do it personally. Sometimes you miss the boat, but there is always going to be a trade off. I am just looking to get the probabilities in my favor. Which it does.

Take care
Mike
  • #8,664
  • Jan 8, 2008 1:32pm Jan 8, 2008 1:32pm
One to watch.

Gut feel is that this is going to break North.

Selling pressure is sharp when it occurs but price is seriously eroding that resistance.
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  • #8,665
  • Jan 8, 2008 1:33pm Jan 8, 2008 1:33pm
the aud/nzd is a perfect example of this


I was waiting for a breakout , and price did but just pulled back into the channel. Price even close outside this area after a BEB. By waiting for my breakout area to re-hold(marked by red X), it is showing me an area where other speculators are finding significant also. My lines mean nothing unless others are doing the same.

Just how I go about it. I am a very conservative trader.

Now I re-draw my lines, and re-evaluate the situation for the future.
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  • #8,666
  • Jan 8, 2008 1:37pm Jan 8, 2008 1:37pm
Quoting the_wizard
One to watch.

Gut feel is that this is going to break North.

Selling pressure is sharp when it occurs but price is seriously eroding that resistance.
So what's the hold up....
  • #8,667
  • Jan 8, 2008 1:45pm Jan 8, 2008 1:45pm
Quoting raczekfx
So what's the hold up....
Oh that's nothing to worry about. It's just teasing me because I am short

Wait for it...
  • #8,668
  • Jan 8, 2008 1:57pm Jan 8, 2008 1:57pm
Quoting mbqb11
It is just a very commonly used technique to wait for a retest of the area. This is MY confirmation that the previous area held. Waiting for a pure break can lead to a lot of false entries. Often time we are just running stops in these areas. By waiting for a retest, or a retest then a continuation we are getting the confirmation. There are tons of ways to play breakouts, this is just the way I do it personally. Sometimes you miss the boat, but there is always going to be a trade off. I am just looking to get the probabilities in my favor. Which it does.

Take care
Mike
IMO this is the best way to play breakouts. For my personal trading style at least, which is also conservative.
Through my extensive trading career (), I have found that waiting for some kind of confirmation after a breakout increases the success rate quite a bit.
There are too many false breakouts to be jumping the gun everytime price breaks through by 10-20 pips.
Personally, I'd rather miss a few trades and have a high win %.
It depends on each person I guess.

Tom
  • #8,669
  • Jan 8, 2008 2:18pm Jan 8, 2008 2:18pm
I know where to get 30pips this week 120p a month probability 0,9. Found save time.
  • #8,670
  • Jan 8, 2008 2:23pm Jan 8, 2008 2:23pm
Quoting meromar
I know where to get 30pips this week 120p a month probability 0,9. Found save time.
Come again?
  • #8,671
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:30pm Jan 8, 2008 3:30pm
@Mike.

Quote
It is just a very commonly used technique to wait for a retest of the area. This is MY confirmation that the previous area held. Waiting for a pure break can lead to a lot of false entries. Often time we are just running stops in these areas. By waiting for a retest, or a retest then a continuation we are getting the confirmation. There are tons of ways to play breakouts, this is just the way I do it personally. Sometimes you miss the boat, but there is always going to be a trade off. I am just looking to get the probabilities in my favor. Which it does.
I have found too by experience that playing the initial break is a low probability play. I also like to trade a retest of the break point and have found this to be the better probability play by a long way.
One of the things i like to look for is a previous high broken and then turn support,i have found this to be a really good way of trading.I think,but not 100% sure that posters to this thread call this a ppz?Am i correct.I am also assuming that ppz means 'pivot price zone'.Can you or somebody else confirm this,just so i have things clear when i'm reading through the posts.

Cheers
Steve
  • #8,672
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:53pm Jan 8, 2008 3:53pm
Yes, PPZ stands for Price Pivot Zone.
It's basically a zone that acts as support/resistance.

Tom
  • #8,673
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:57pm Jan 8, 2008 3:57pm
Cheers Tom.

Just as i suspected. Powerful stuff indeed.
  • #8,674
  • Jan 8, 2008 3:59pm Jan 8, 2008 3:59pm
does pa work on exotic pairs as well?
  • #8,675
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:10pm Jan 8, 2008 4:10pm
Hi there seems to be a pretty nice setup on the NZD/USD daily and 4 hour charts. Pin bar/gravestone doji on the daily, and a BEOVB on the 4 hour. The kiwi failed to make a higher high so the trend may be down for a while now. I will be taking a break of this pin. Any thoughts on this one?
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  • #8,676
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:25pm Jan 8, 2008 4:25pm
Very similar situation on AUD/YEN as well. Pin on daily and beovb on 4 hour. Not sure if I'll play this one yet.
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  • #8,677
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:27pm Jan 8, 2008 4:27pm
It works on all pairs EXCEPT the ones Tiki has trades on... !!!

Quoting coolshades
does pa work on exotic pairs as well?
  • #8,678
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:36pm Jan 8, 2008 4:36pm
Quoting mbqb11
It is just a very commonly used technique to wait for a retest of the area. This is MY confirmation that the previous area held. Waiting for a pure break can lead to a lot of false entries. Often time we are just running stops in these areas. By waiting for a retest, or a retest then a continuation we are getting the confirmation. There are tons of ways to play breakouts, this is just the way I do it personally. Sometimes you miss the boat, but there is always going to be a trade off. I am just looking to get the probabilities in my favor. Which it does.

Take care
Mike
Thanks.
  • #8,679
  • Jan 8, 2008 5:37pm Jan 8, 2008 5:37pm
Quoting SeekingLight
I'll post the same thing I posted when we hit 1.6350 and had a daily PB - I'll be looking to sell whatever rally + setup we get

What I'm trying to say is - while everything carryish is falling like a rock looking to buy any bounces or retracements to me is a very daring endeavour.

That, and depending on how creative one gets with the TLs we might just be rallying to retest the underside of a lost channel.


Anyhow, I'm staying a carry trade miser.

Update with an outcome of little surprise to me(And a strong doubt the JPY bears will get very far..):
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #8,680
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:08pm Jan 8, 2008 6:08pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Update with an outcome of little surprise to me(And a strong doubt the JPY bears will get very far..):
Same here.... Dow is about to erase all gains for the 2007...
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