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Forex intraday using the 5min chart: EURUSD 108 replies

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5Min Intraday System

  • #2,901
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:25pm Jan 7, 2008 2:25pm
Quoting Golfer
Patience and discipline are your friends - they kept me out of the two setups today I've followed.

Be careful when you see the pullback making a steady move upwards or downwards as indicated on the chart. I think that is what Phillip is refering to as a steep pullback. I won't get involve in these anymore - high risk to me now. Lost a few pips last week trying those pullbacks. No recognisable price pattern.

On the EUR the small resistance line was broken and the price found resistance on the wrong side of the 21MA. The 3 little sisters was a possibility - 21 in non-trade zone can be ignored because it is below the 50MA.

Have tried to get in touch with u on Skype but can't get a hold of u.can u pls,tell me whats time the following market opens:-

Asian Market

London Market

New york market

Austrialia market.

Thanks for the favour
  • #2,902
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:52pm Jan 7, 2008 2:52pm
Hi AY

See the times that I do have in your message.

Quoting ayour2a
Have tried to get in touch with u on Skype but can't get a hold of u.can u pls,tell me whats time the following market opens:-

Asian Market - 0:00 - 09:00GMT Tokyo

London Market - 08:00 - 17:00GMT

New york market - 13:00 - 22:00GMT

Austrialia market - 20:00 - 04:00GMT

Thanks for the favour
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,903
  • Jan 7, 2008 3:49pm Jan 7, 2008 3:49pm
i had to trades EURUSD
the 1. was almost OK , mean the setup for short looked alright but i expectet it to go down a bit longer. Closed it with only 2 pips when it retraced back to the MA21.
The 2. was a long , i should have waited for the 21MA in the SMAAngle window.
I felt very unsure ,i was afraid price could break down the 1.4700 again, so i closed the trade with just 7 pips.
Today the market for me was not clear at all. What i mean, i hate to go long when the daily pivot is above.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,904
  • Edited 1:20am Jan 8, 2008 1:09am | Edited 1:20am
Quoting MJurban
i had to trades EURUSD
the 1. was almost OK , mean the setup for short looked alright but i expectet it to go down a bit longer. Closed it with only 2 pips when it retraced back to the MA21.
The 2. was a long , i should have waited for the 21MA in the SMAAngle window.
I felt very unsure ,i was afraid price could break down the 1.4700 again, so i closed the trade with just 7 pips.
Today the market for me was not clear at all. What i mean, i hate to go long when the daily pivot is above.
Hi Mj

My comments on your chart:

1. See my comments on my chart (post #2900) for your first trade. I just don't like activities on the wrong side of the 21MA. My small resistance line was also broken. I like to see 21MA act as support or resistance. When you do take a high risk trade, make sure you do take the 10pips profit on offer.

2. Your second trade - very risky but I know there are members who believe in the first pullback (they say it is the most profitable setup). It was a very early entry with the 21 MA still in the non-trade zone.

3. One good thing I like is that you exit your trade when You to feel uncomfortable.

4. Today it worked but maybe not tomorrow and you may experience a week like I had last week - just losers because I didn't follow the rules.

5. Very valuable point you made about the price and the daily pivot level. People should take note of that - we tend to ignore that simple "rule".
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,905
  • Edited 3:44am Jan 8, 2008 3:32am | Edited 3:44am
hi willem,
thx for comments,
this morning i took a short usdchf.
i expectet it to run quickly down to the daily pivot at 1142.
but it slowed down and pulled back from 1148 so i took the 15 pips profit

Edit:
add the h1chart to the posting to show the reason for this trade.
i always look at the h1 chart before doing an m5 entry
the candles showed good resistance a multiple top was build an the 7:00 candle was well formed for a shortentry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
  • #2,906
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:29am Jan 8, 2008 10:29am
Quoting MJurban
hi willem,
thx for comments,
this morning i took a short usdchf.
i expectet it to run quickly down to the daily pivot at 1142.
but it slowed down and pulled back from 1148 so i took the 15 pips profit

Edit:
add the h1chart to the posting to show the reason for this trade.
i always look at the h1 chart before doing an m5 entry
the candles showed good resistance a multiple top was build an the 7:00 candle was well formed for a shortentry
Hi Mj

See my comments on a similiar chart (cable today) because I saw you tend to ignore the non-trade zone as well as war zone. This one worked out well but be carefull when trading not according to the rules. It may hurt you badly - like it did to me.

But then maybe it is working for you and it is your style.

I also like to look at the 4h MACD system and price movements. As you can see, there is nothing really going on with Cable on the 4h chart. It is trying to decide where to go.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 20080108 cable 4h.gif Size: 16 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,907
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:34am Jan 8, 2008 10:34am
Now look at the price movements once the 21MA is coming out of the non-trade zone. Anything can happen - no direction what so ever. Just choppiness between two pivot lines.

For me it is no-no. Sit on hands. Too stressful and uncertainity if one enters.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,908
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:36am Jan 8, 2008 10:36am
If you see a day like today, you must have a system to trade "range-bound markets". Not for this 5min system.

Sit on hands!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20080108 eur 1.gif Size: 21 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,909
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:41am Jan 8, 2008 10:41am
Quoting Golfer
Hi AY

See the times that I do have in your message.
THANKS
  • #2,910
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:42am Jan 8, 2008 10:42am
Just another example which looks easy because it has a recognisable upwards movement with 21MA staying above 0.1 line. But the 21MA on the chart doesn't act as support. So it is difficult to decide where to enter because you don't know whether you SL will be enough. You frequently ask yourself - How deep will the pullback be?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20080108 ey 1.gif Size: 20 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,911
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:53am Jan 8, 2008 10:53am
The setup I thought would give me a chance. But just look at the steep pullback towards the war zone. If I see such a pullback, I'll wait for signs of resistance before entering. No way that I'll enter using the 2-candle entry method. And then there was the small resistance line - broken again and saved me.

So, the bottom line - I had no trades today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20080108 ey 2 jep.JPG Size: 105 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,912
  • Jan 9, 2008 5:10am Jan 9, 2008 5:10am
To Willem
Just for ease my curiosity did you move the trade zone limit line to 0.5 or is a new backtest?
I've realized of that in your recent charts.
Thanks for answer.
  • #2,913
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:26am Jan 9, 2008 6:26am
Quoting mkain
To Willem
Just for ease my curiosity did you move the trade zone limit line to 0.5 or is a new backtest?
I've realized of that in your recent charts.
Thanks for answer.
Hi Mk

No, the non-trade zone is still the same. For EUR and Cable it is between 0.1 and -0.1 and for EY between 0.15 and -0.15.

The 0.5 and -0.5 lines are just parameters that I am using when the market is not in a trend (in other words when the market is range-bound like yesterday and the EY currently). When the 21MA on the SMAangle indicator approaches/crosses that line, I'll be VERY careful to enter a trade. For example - if that 21 MA is approaching the 0.5 line and it looks like me that this is range-bound market (I am usually looking at the 4h MACD chart for an indication), I won't enter another long trade if I do see another setup.

When the market is in a trend, the 21 MA will just cut cross that line and will just continue. Then you can ignore those lines and concentrate on the pivot lines.

I hope it makes sense.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,914
  • Jan 9, 2008 9:32am Jan 9, 2008 9:32am
Just look at the differences between the two entries of my two trades today. The first trade's entry was too far away from the 21MA - the entry was in non-man land and my trailing SL was triggered at 10pips loss.

The second trade was a better entry but it could have been closer to the small resistance line. Please note that this trade was because of the 3 little sisters and it was formed above the 50MA (not according to rules). The reason why I only took 5pips profit (could have taken about 20pips profit). I just don't like the feeling of trading outside the rules. Very nervous.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20080109 5min trade 1.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20080109 5min trade 2.gif Size: 22 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,915
  • Edited 10:38am Jan 9, 2008 10:21am | Edited 10:38am
hi willem,
my problem, i think i trade the rules but i dit not.
your right. I had some more eurchfs yesterdey, not worth showing it here, cause they all have bee out of the rules. All winners, small.
I took this usdchf long , caus euro was short.
But euro is not so short looking anymore, testet the s2 daily with a long wick on H1 chart


edit: 6 pips was the most, to small for me, i closed with 1 pip insted ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,916
  • Jan 9, 2008 11:19am Jan 9, 2008 11:19am
i dit almost the same entry then the one in the last post.
This time it runs 9 pips and i took 5
I dit this cause euro made a new low on h1 chart.
Attached Image
  • #2,917
  • Jan 9, 2008 2:08pm Jan 9, 2008 2:08pm
Hi Mj

This is how I would approach your chart - my comments on the chart. I don't really see any high probability setups (price patterns) on it.

The first pullback showed support on the 21MA - the reason why you can take the risk to enter the next pullback that is near the 21MA. After the 21MA is broken, can we trust the 21 MA to act as support? Not me. Then the question is where will the pullback stop? Answer is the 50MA but I'll only take it on the EY pair.

Sorry for the comments but I am sure it will help you. Even I learn from charts posted by others because I don't always see what they are seeing. It is nice to share one's opinions about setups.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4-usdchf-01.JPG Size: 63 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,918
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:08am Jan 10, 2008 3:08am
Quoting Golfer
Hi Mj


Sorry for the comments but I am sure it will help you. Even I learn from charts posted by others because I don't always see what they are seeing. It is nice to share one's opinions about setups.
Thank you for the comments.
My problem is, i read the rules, the postings, i even understand it, but in reality deep in my mind, i have no confidence to this stuff.
I always think it could be noise or random and so i dont trust the setup.
Thats whats making me jumping in a trade , its more like gambling.
And the bad side of the story, i m doing it for so long now and i make small profit cause i cut off a loosing trade very quick and try o stick to the winner.
So i wonder if there is a way for me to seriusly learn trading insted of gambling.
  • #2,919
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:48am Jan 10, 2008 3:48am
Quoting MJurban
Thank you for the comments.
My problem is, i read the rules, the postings, i even understand it, but in reality deep in my mind, i have no confidence to this stuff.
I always think it could be noise or random and so i dont trust the setup.
Thats whats making me jumping in a trade , its more like gambling.
And the bad side of the story, i m doing it for so long now and i make small profit cause i cut off a loosing trade very quick and try o stick to the winner.
So i wonder if there is a way for me to seriusly learn trading insted of gambling.
Hi Mj

Thanks for your post - it is a great summary of what my feelings has been in the past.

I've bought several systems and electronic books and currently I am still looking at one I've bought. But I just didn't have any confidence in their systems. Why was that? They just explain the rules of the systems and don't really give an explanation of that mechanisms of the markets relating to their systems. Sometimes it was also to complicated.

It was only after I was introduced to Phillip's 4H MACD as well as his 5min system that I've started to realise that there is something like market rhythm. Now the 5minute system is making sense to me - the same for the 4H MACD system (I am just struggling to see the entry points).

With this 5 minute system, it is very important to get a feel for the market and it's rhythm. That is why I am studying it now for almost one year and that is why Philip recommended that you only follow one or two pairs. I've realised that there are some priced patterns repeating itself.

That is also why I wrote My Rules and appendix with the high probability trades setups based on what I've experienced with the system and my pairs. You just need to trust it and follow it. Then it is not gambling - trade what you see on the charts (and according to the rules) and not what you want to see. That happened to me last night -I entered a trade because I thought it will go up and it didn't. And it wasn't according to my rules - got burned again.

I would suggest that you do the same - do what you feel comfortable with and write it down. Remember, not all the trades will be positive.

There was a member on Philip's 4H MACD thread complaining about the "crap" trades done by members (a few days ago) and how it frustrates him to see it because the people don't want to wait for proper setups and the market to show itself. I think he or she called that gambling and that is exactly what it is to me. Taking high risk trades and not following the rules are gambling to me. But if you do follow the rules you do have a better chance of success and it is not gambling.

It is the same with the 5minute system - wait for the market to show itself. Avoid the setups in choppy market. There will be setups according to the rules in choppy markets but you must be very sure of it.

Patience and discipline are your friends and allies - especially in the 5 minute system.

I hope it helps.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,920
  • Jan 10, 2008 4:35am Jan 10, 2008 4:35am
hi willem,
thanks again for your help. Its good to see that i'm not the only one with simular problems.
So i seariusly go into the stuff again, study the rules , backtesting .....
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