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haniam's anti Big Dogs trades

  • #381
  • Jan 7, 2008 5:35am Jan 7, 2008 5:35am
Quoting haniam

...

Let's take today EU example with an illustration and a live setup:

Attachment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080107-EU-M15-AM-SetupClose.gif Size: 19 KB


This was an example how to easily catch 20-25 pips with small risk.
You can go for bigger targets on bigger time frames and at a more volatile time like opening session, 15-30 minutes after news...
  • #382
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:13am Jan 7, 2008 6:13am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani,

Thanks for posting the charts. Another question for you, if I may. I know that you always plan your trades before you enter into the market. What exactly do you look at when planning your trades? I know you use pivot levels (do you use your own calculations?) , trendlines, S/R, etc. Do you hold one to be more importantthan the other?
Look forward to your answers when you have the time. Thank you.

Lee
Hi Lee,

What exactly do I look at when planning my trades...

Well it depends on the way I am trading. I do not trade in just one style. I have positions that I hold for weeks, others for days, hours and even minutes... I interact with the market and for every situation I will be using different technique, different targets and I would be looking to different things.

It can go from basig S/R and candle patterns to more complicated combined techniques and calculations.

What I am trying to post here is an easy way to deal with the market by just using pivot levels, S/R with trendlines and sometimes fibo. for the big picture, while avoiding Big Dogs traps.

I think that the live trades I alreay did in this journal since four months are clear enough to reveal all the 'secret' of this 'bounce or break trading entry technique'.

Keep in mind that PL will differ depending on the broker you are using.
They can be calculated by using simple formulas in an excel sheet, or automatically thru some indicators depending on platforms, or found on many sites.
  • #383
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:22am Jan 7, 2008 6:22am
Quoting haniam
First day of the second week of the year.
Today is still a day to trade with extra caution.
PL @1.4749
We are trading under PL since the opening.

On Friday, prices went strongly up to test the resistance in the 1.4810-20 levels and have been rejected strongly, showing that the market is not yet ready for such highs, and giving a bias to a test of the dowside @1.4580-1.4600 levels were we may find a good opportunity to buy with a great R:R.

Until PV is broken, I will be in the selling side adding to position on 1.4685-95 break targeting 1.4650, 1.4610.
EU gave us lot of pips today in the selling side.
We are now in a triangle configuration, were we are waiting for a break of one side or another to buy a break of 1.4700 targeting 1.4745, 1.4785 or sell a break of 1.4655 with a possible early entry around 1.4670.
  • #384
  • Jan 7, 2008 8:14am Jan 7, 2008 8:14am
Quote
What exactly do I look at when planning my trades...

Well it depends on the way I am trading. I do not trade in just one style. I have positions that I hold for weeks, others for days, hours and even minutes... I interact with the market and for every situation I will be using different technique, different targets and I would be looking to different things.

It can go from basig S/R and candle patterns to more complicated combined techniques and calculations.

What I am trying to post here is an easy way to deal with the market by just using pivot levels, S/R with trendlines and sometimes fibo. for the big picture, while avoiding Big Dogs traps.

I think that the live trades I alreay did in this journal since four months are clear enough to reveal all the 'secret' of this 'bounce or break trading entry technique'.

Keep in mind that PL will differ depending on the broker you are using.
They can be calculated by using simple formulas in an excel sheet, or automatically thru some indicators depending on platforms, or found on many sites.

Thanks Hani for the reply. Sorry for the silly question. Of course it's quite clear here how you trade with the pivot levels . I will re-read the thread again to refresh my failing memory! LOL! Thanks again.
  • #385
  • Jan 7, 2008 8:59am Jan 7, 2008 8:59am
thank you haniam , u are very kind and helpful.

Happy 2008 for you!
  • #386
  • Jan 7, 2008 11:05am Jan 7, 2008 11:05am
Hi Hani,

Finally EU broke out of the triangular pattern to the downside. Is it possible to "predict" the probable direction of the break before it happens ?
Also are there any particular candle patterns you specially watch out for when you are day trading. ?
I do have a problem sometimes of letting my profit turn into a loss and was wondering how you would remedy such a situation. I have started taking half profits once I am in front and bring my stop to break-even. However I have come across advise about letting the profit ride and also ensuring a wide enough stop in order not to get whip-sawed. Many a times when I do this, I end up turning a winner into a loser. Any advise would be very appreciated as I value your experience highly.
Thanks Hani.
  • #387
  • Jan 8, 2008 5:33am Jan 8, 2008 5:33am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani,

Finally EU broke out of the triangular pattern to the downside. Is it possible to "predict" the probable direction of the break before it happens ?
...
Is it possible to "predict" the probable direction of the break?
It depends on the triangle pattern. but in general "odds favour a continuation of the trend following a breakout from the triangle pattern."

To read more on this http://www.chartfilter.com/reports/c32c.htm

I personally watch which side the prices are 'sticking' more to determine the break. In all case, or can put stop orders in both direction near the end of the triangle with a stop loss in the second side. Once one order is triggered, you will cancel the other one.
  • #388
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:12am Jan 8, 2008 6:12am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani,

...
Also are there any particular candle patterns you specially watch out for when you are day trading. ?
...
No particular pattern. Once you want to use candles as references, it is better to know all the important ones and they will become a reference for you while you are trading to detect when prices are reversing for example.

Attached is a fast reference pattern sheet. You will find yourself confortable with some of them that you can easily identify depending on your preferences.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf CandlestickPatternDictionary.pdf   45 KB | 442 downloads
  • #389
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:42am Jan 8, 2008 6:42am
Thanks Hani for the answers to my questions. Also for the links for the candlesticks patterns. I have also been reading up on the Pivot Point Bounce Strategy (google search). I have a fair idea from watching your trades and will try to incorporate that into my trading plan. Any particular favourite sites where I can read up more on the Pivot Point Strategy you use?
Thanks again
  • #390
  • Jan 8, 2008 7:36am Jan 8, 2008 7:36am
Quoting Bakuli
Thanks Hani for the answers to my questions. Also for the links for the candlesticks patterns. I have also been reading up on the Pivot Point Bounce Strategy (google search). I have a fair idea from watching your trades and will try to incorporate that into my trading plan. Any particular favourite sites where I can read up more on the Pivot Point Strategy you use?
Thanks again
You can try forexmentor.com
They mainly base their trading on pivot levels and mid levels.
I think you may have to pay a fee to access the important areas of this method.
  • #391
  • Jan 8, 2008 7:52am Jan 8, 2008 7:52am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani,

...
I do have a problem sometimes of letting my profit turn into a loss and was wondering how you would remedy such a situation. I have started taking half profits once I am in front and bring my stop to break-even. However I have come across advise about letting the profit ride and also ensuring a wide enough stop in order not to get whip-sawed. Many a times when I do this, I end up turning a winner into a loser. Any advise would be very appreciated as I value your experience highly.

Thanks Hani.
The principle of 'Cut you losses and let your profit ride' apply when the market is trending.

We are now in a ranging market, at least for EU, where the prices are trying to push up, but the bears are being able to easily gain the losses.

This principle will not work well in such conditions, and you will often get stopped for a loss. You would better take progressive partial profit then reenter at a better price in the same direction of the first trade until you get out by hitting your target or your (trailed) stop loss.

This will suppose that you are aware of the Support and Resistance levels, and that you are able to follow the market from close and frequently, else you may be out of the trade too soon.
  • #392
  • Jan 8, 2008 5:29pm Jan 8, 2008 5:29pm
Thank you for the reply. That's another piece of good advise for my little rule book!.
  • #393
  • Jan 9, 2008 3:38am Jan 9, 2008 3:38am
GU is doing new lows in expectation of a possible rate cut tomorrow.
PL @1.9740, far away from the current quote.

Minor support @1.9620 under test.

We have a good support @1.9560-80 region where we can buy a bounce targeting 1.9650, 1.9715 with 30 pips SL. Great R:R

An aggressive short would be to sell bounce 1.9645-50 targeting 1.9580 with SL 1.9670
  • #394
  • Jan 10, 2008 12:17am Jan 10, 2008 12:17am
Quoting haniam
GU is doing new lows in expectation of a possible rate cut tomorrow.
PL @1.9740, far away from the current quote.

Minor support @1.9620 under test.

We have a good support @1.9560-80 region where we can buy a bounce targeting 1.9650, 1.9715 with 30 pips SL. Great R:R

An aggressive short would be to sell bounce 1.9645-50 targeting 1.9580 with SL 1.9670
The aggressive short gave +65 pips, and we are currently longing GU from 1.9560 where it bounced yesterday as expected. First target 1.9625 where the PL may stop further recovery until interest rate decition announcement today.

Beware volatility at these time and try not to trade 30 minutes before and after the news until the markets make up their mind about the direction it will choose to take.

There's an important support @1.9490-1.9500 and 1.9405-1.9420 where we may reenter longs if SL is hit.

First major resistance @1.9835, with 1.9708 and 1.9760 as interim resistances.

Safe trade to all.
  • #395
  • Jan 10, 2008 12:44am Jan 10, 2008 12:44am
Quoting haniam
The aggressive short gave +65 pips, and we are currently longing GU from 1.9560 where it bounced yesterday as expected. First target 1.9625 where the PL may stop further recovery until interest rate decition announcement today.

Beware volatility at these time and try not to trade 30 minutes before and after the news until the markets make up their mind about the direction it will choose to take.

There's an important support @1.9490-1.9500 and 1.9405-1.9420 where we may reenter longs if SL is hit.

First major resistance @1.9835, with 1.9708 and 1.9760 as interim resistances.

Safe trade to all.
Watch closely 1.9549 break as it will open the way to an aggressive short trade targeting 1.9504

You may use this break as a hedge postion entry to protect your long trade, or close and reverse (C&R) the trade, then C&R again around 1.9500
  • #396
  • Jan 10, 2008 4:24am Jan 10, 2008 4:24am
Quoting haniam
Watch closely 1.9549 break as it will open the way to an aggressive short trade targeting 1.9504

You may use this break as a hedge postion entry to protect your long trade, or close and reverse (C&R) the trade, then C&R again around 1.9500
False break @1.9549 shorted as hedge and closed @1.9579 for -30 pips
Opened 2nd position @1.9594 after range break closed @1.9625 for +31 pips
Long position opened @1.9560 closed @1.9625 for +65 pips

I prefer to stay aside now until rate anouncement or reenter long around 1.9570-75 if given the chance
  • #397
  • Jan 10, 2008 11:05am Jan 10, 2008 11:05am
Hi Haniam,

Nearly 3am, about to head off to bed for a brief shut eye...
Just read the thread...great stuff and wished I had read it before going live. My trading has been consistent over the past two months - consistently losing -

I need to get my act together quickly. Emotions have been my biggest problem, oh yes and the false belief that this is easy after successful demo trading...what a joke!

Well, all your points made are very valid and I am looking forward to the year ahead.

Thanks for your efforts and am looking forward to learning from you

Oromis.
  • #398
  • Jan 10, 2008 5:51pm Jan 10, 2008 5:51pm
Well, the bIG dOGS are certainly smiling today after their victory over me, and I'm sure many others, after the events of the past twenty four hours.
  • #399
  • Jan 11, 2008 1:28am Jan 11, 2008 1:28am
Quoting Oromis
Hi Haniam,

Nearly 3am, about to head off to bed for a brief shut eye...
Just read the thread...great stuff and wished I had read it before going live. My trading has been consistent over the past two months - consistently losing -

I need to get my act together quickly. Emotions have been my biggest problem, oh yes and the false belief that this is easy after successful demo trading...what a joke!

Well, all your points made are very valid and I am looking forward to the year ahead.

Thanks for your efforts and am looking forward to learning from you

Oromis.
Welcome Oromis to the Thread!

Consistently losing is the common of 90-95% of traders. It is a normal stage of the learning curve I guess. The most important thing to take into consideration is Money Management for the moment.

My advice: Don't risk more than you are ready to lose in one trade, else your emotions will take over and you will make, most probably, wrong decisions.

A demo account is the biggest trap that BD offer to beginner traders and they always fell inside. So it is a good step from you to go live, but go slowly in as much low amount as you can until you are comfortable with your emotions, and that is the most difficult part of the 'game'.
  • #400
  • Jan 11, 2008 3:52am Jan 11, 2008 3:52am
Quoting Oromis
Well, the bIG dOGS are certainly smiling today after their victory over me, and I'm sure many others, after the events of the past twenty four hours.
I bet they are! They had the ideal conditions to strike again, moving the market in the opposite way first, creating some false breakouts so they can trigger as much Stop orders and Stop losses as they can, by using trader emotions, then going in the opposite way and doing this again, then in the opposite way again. A nice example for GU pair below:

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