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  • #21
  • Dec 11, 2007 10:16pm Dec 11, 2007 10:16pm
Quoting Skunny
Aaah Grasshopper, you're not ready for this quest. Seeking Bo's great wealth of knowledge is paramount over my simpleton charts and interjections
So if Bo tells me to go long or short, for better or worse, you'll consider me eligible for your simple...interjections?
I await your charts.

(interjection just sounded...not good)
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #22
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:33am Dec 12, 2007 12:33am
I've gone long.
Attached Image
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #23
  • Dec 12, 2007 3:41pm Dec 12, 2007 3:41pm
After the long entry at the beginning of the day, I held the position instead of taking short term profit because I am still biased long on the daily time frame from the daily pin last week. My stop was located below yesterday's low since I'm thinking daily, and this saved me from getting stopped out by the news spike this morning.

If I were trading short term only, I'd have taken a T1 profit on the long and then another long trade would have been initiated on the 5am EST candle by updating the short term fib when a new swing started forming. That second long trade would have been stopped out by the news at 8:30 EST, then no more trades for the day short term.

I'm currently holding two long mini lots and I've moved both stops up to somewhere just beneath all the ranging that's been happening for the afternoon. This will give me around 70 pips profit on 2 lots if I get stopped, otherwise I am still good and will consider adding more to the long position if there is a setup for the next day's trading session. If the next day presents a short signal I'll exit everything and consider going short for a scalp but won't hold a short due to the daily long bias.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 61 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #24
  • Dec 12, 2007 3:53pm Dec 12, 2007 3:53pm
Quoting Thexder
So if Bo tells me to go long or short, for better or worse, you'll consider me eligible for your simple...interjections?
I await your charts.

(interjection just sounded...not good)
LOL
Robonacci com
  • #25
  • Dec 12, 2007 6:04pm Dec 12, 2007 6:04pm
My stop was taken out by the candles falling below the ranging of the afternoon so I'll be looking for another trade when London starts, taking the first valid setup long or short.

If it's short I'll scalp it. If it's long I'll buy and hold with a stop that makes sense.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 27 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #26
  • Dec 13, 2007 12:18pm Dec 13, 2007 12:18pm
The first valid break out today was short so I took 1 lot with a short term scalp TP of 22 minus spread. The daily long bias prevented holding the short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 44 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #27
  • Dec 13, 2007 12:43pm Dec 13, 2007 12:43pm
Here's how I arrived at today's conclusion that there was one valid short trade, following the methods of the short term fib break out method in the PDF notes.

The first valid short term fib is pulled during the Asian session in the first image. A break out of the fib low occurs on a sudden bearish candle that begins from the long bias side of the fib range so the trade isn't taken but it's monitored for completion. The phantom short trade reaches at least the first fib target level of -0.34 and then returns back to the break out area, so the trade is considered complete and a new swing can be pulled across the latest movement - the down move that initiated the missed trade. (once candles return to the break out area and reveal a new lower low where the target was achieved).

The second image has the updated fib and this time candles start out short biased, migrate into the neutral area between 38.2% and 61.8%, with wicks having penetrated beyond 61.8%. When candles return into the short bias side after this, a significant retracement of that fib has occurred so the fib high can be pulled down to the wicks that caused the retracement status.

When the next candle breaks the fib low, that is the valid short trade with a valid short bias and the trade is taken with a conservative -0.34 fib target.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 104 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #28
  • Dec 17, 2007 2:34am Dec 17, 2007 2:34am
Friday ended with a break of the 61.8% retracement of the week long up move, changing the bias to short for the daily perspective.

Tonight so far the short bias is holding. The first short term fib setup of the session has been a short break out and the short term target has already been achieved. There may be more room to keep falling yet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 97 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #29
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:12am Jan 3, 2008 4:12am
This is the first trade since before Christmas and it seems to be going ok.
I saw how noisy (ranging and spikey) the action has looked since yesterday with nothing clear forming so I put an Intraday fib across the high and low of the range and maintained a short bias with a pending order at the low of the range.

As I hoped, not only was the low of yesterday's range broken but so were a few other recent lows, adding to the downward momentum once cleared.

Since I'm in the Eastern time zone and needed to sleep tonight, I just kept setting my alarm for 1 hour at a time and kept checking if I had been put in a trade or not. Once in the trade I monitored the activity in real time so I could manipulate targets and stops to allow it to grow or protect myself if needed, and I ended up setting myself for a stop around Intraday T1, which at the time of this writing has just triggered, leaving me with +27 after spread.

I'm content with that, it looks like the price action stabilized around Intraday T2 and is ready to either go back up or consolidate for a while, maybe the rest of the day, in which case there may be another entry tomorrow. Or it could just suddenly go back down and I'll have to miss the opportunity because it's too soon to watch for the next setup, and besides there is some news coming in 3 hours and I'm relieved to be in & out with profit.

Back to bed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 121 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #30
  • Edited 2:24am Jan 7, 2008 2:06am | Edited 2:24am
This is a successful swing trade night and I will get to go to bed at a reasonable 3am EST tonight. Right now I'm in a free trade with 2 mini lots short on Cable.

I set up the usual swing scalp fib (Orange this time) across the high/low before London. When the fib was drawn and London was getting ready, there was a retracement to the 50% of the swing and I noticed the 3 candles leading up to that retracement were all smooth bullish candles, higher lows and highs, and I saw the long wick that made it to the 50% area, suggesting things may reverse now (and I was short biased daily plus swing), so I set a sell order just below the last bullish retracement candle with a stop just above that wick.

I got in short and stuck to it, riding out some new volatility that occurred with up and down action between the low and the retracement area. I figured worst case it will stop me out just above the 50% level above the candle I got in on, and I can accept that.

I had another pending short order below swing low as usual, and it was finally triggered. I was now in with 2 mini lots.

I left the one stop fixed above the 50% retracement and I put a 30 trail on the other lot. I have found this past week that 30 is a reasonable trail on the 1 hour time frame, especially when in a free trade and just letting it ride.

So things blasted down when the low broke and I was able to keep one lot on a 30 trail and put the other lot at free trade for break even, and before I knew it the 30 trail was moved down enough to net me +5 if it triggered.

Update: On the next candle after the break out candle I was stopped out for +22 on my fixed stop that I just moved somewhere arbitrary to make sure I bank something, and +12 on the 30 trail.

Total gains: +34.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 105 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #31
  • Edited 4:21am Jan 8, 2008 4:05am | Edited 4:21am
Tonight's trade started as a swing break out and lead to a big intraday run, reaching of course both swing targets but also both Intraday targets once yesterday's high was breached.

I entered on a swing break out long, with 2 mini lots and an initial stop around swing pivot since I've done back testing with that and can count on it even if it fails, I expect I can make up for it in a few more trades. Once the trade got underway I pulled up a 1 minute chart beside the hourly and watched for developing support so I could move my stops asap to break even or small profit, or small loss if necessary. Also I entered on the later break of the swing high even though there was a small penetration earlier - it was during the Asian session so I ignored it this time, I wasn't feeling so sure about whether to even trade today because things looked too consolidating/ranging. But by the time London came I got my witts, I saw a narrowing consolidation just below swing high and I decided if it breaks out of that and clears swing high, I'll get in.

Up to now when I enter a trade on the hourly candle I have had to sit and watch it flickering up and down and I wouldn't really have a feel for what to expect unless I survived another candle and was still in the trade, then I could just figure out a "good place" to put a stop. Even then things would sometimes take me out and then continue in profit without me.

So what I do on the M1 chart is watch for highs and lows forming in waves (the 1 hour flickering) and on a long trade, when candles start going back down for the first time after entering the trade, my initial wide stop is still in play. But if the M1 candles then go back in my favour (leaving a low behind), if they break the high they had left during the break out and before retracing low (form a higher high and leave a higher low behind), I will move stops below that low (hopefully above break even).

Then if at that point a new high/low forms, I will move the stops again, or maybe just move one up, and leap frog them, I just make it up as I go based on how much I've locked in.

Once I get far enough in my favour I will widen my stops to accommodate the volatility of the pair, for instance if I'm up +30 and a new low forms to allow me to move stops up, I will move them up but I'll put them maybe 10 below the actual low that formed to allow for the usual spikes and variance between charts and brokers.

On the M1 chart I showed where I entered the trade and the 2 areas I got out. The first area, I lost 1 lot because things dipped down a bit but then took off again (I should have widened it for the volatility) but I had my other lot sitting at the previous stop level so it was safe, and I was able to move it up and keep going.

The blue lines are places where I would move stops on new lows, and the red lines are the new highs that form. So the very first blue line I drew as a low to move a stop to, this was in the middle of an up move before a clear "new high" formed, but it was just after the trade started so I wanted to use that as a place to put a free trade in case it failed. I moved both my stops from initial swing pivot to the first blue line and I was happy enough to not lose out.

Then comes the area where the first red line is. I noticed the candles started going down and they formed a low spike on the second blue line, so I had my first high and low formed. I still didn't move any stops up - I wait until candles break the red line making a new high and thus making the newest support the red line instead of the low of the blue line.

So the candle blasted up through that first red line and I moved both stops up to the 2nd blue line. The stop should be guarded by new support on that first red line that was penetrated.

A high was formed at the second red line when candles fell down and started going back up, allowing that 3rd blue line to be marked. I watched for that second red line to be violated and when it was I moved both stops up to the 3rd blue line because now I wanted profit, things were going my way and I have some catching up to do in my account.

Beyond that point I wasn't looking for greed, the emotion vanished because I knew I was ok and so I started leap frogging the stops.

A new high was formed on the 3rd red line, and the 4th blue line marked the next stop level if the red line could be broken, but a consolidation occurred so I didn't move anything for a while. After I saw the high and low tested twice each, I decided maybe it'll fail, so I should lock SOME profit in. I moved one of the stops up beneath that 4th blue line, leaving extra room for volatility and it took me out. But I still had 1 lot down at the 3rd blue line.

Finally on the 4th move up, the red line was broken so I moved the other lot up to the 4th blue line. A high was formed at the 4th red line and then a low came, followed by a lower high, so I didn't consider the low to be a stop location. When the red line was broken I moved the stop up to the lowest low of that consolidation at the 5th blue line.

I continued this until the very top, and another consolidation occurred so I kept my stop way down beneath it at the 6th blue line for a long time. When I decided it was not looking good any more and it had already had a good run, I would have put the stop somewhere around that top blue line but it was close to the round 1.9800 point, so I placed my stop wider, beneath that level and eventually it was taken out.

Net result: Around +30 on lot 1 and around +70 on lot 2.

In looking at the areas where I got stopped out, one place was near the swing target zone and the next consolidation that caused problems was the target zone of the next higher fib. In between it was a clean run.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 124 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #32
  • Jan 8, 2008 5:00am Jan 8, 2008 5:00am
Quoting Thexder
Tonight's trade started as a swing break out and lead to a big intraday run, reaching of course both swing targets but also both Intraday targets once yesterday's high was breached.

I entered on a swing break out long, with 2 mini lots and an initial stop around swing pivot since I've done back testing with that and can count on it even if it fails, I expect I can make up for it in a few more trades. Once the trade got underway I pulled up a 1 minute chart beside the hourly and watched for developing support so I could move my stops asap to break even or small profit, or small loss if necessary. Also I entered on the later break of the swing high even though there was a small penetration earlier - it was during the Asian session so I ignored it this time, I wasn't feeling so sure about whether to even trade today because things looked too consolidating/ranging. But by the time London came I got my witts, I saw a narrowing consolidation just below swing high and I decided if it breaks out of that and clears swing high, I'll get in....
Many thanks for posting this. You have an excellent journal and no doubt it is helping many others as well as yourself....off to read the rest of your thread

Thanks again.
  • #33
  • Jan 8, 2008 5:08am Jan 8, 2008 5:08am
The info even helps me. I've had to look back at the PDF to double check some rules before, and as I come up with new things I want them documented likewise. I think today's post may just be the next supplement to the November PDF.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #34
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:38am Jan 8, 2008 6:38am
Quoting Thexder
Tonight's trade started as a swing break out and lead to a big intraday run, reaching of course both swing targets but also both Intraday targets once yesterday's high was breached.

I entered on a swing break out long, with 2 mini lots and an initial stop around swing pivot since I've done back testing with that and can count on it even if it fails, I expect I can make up for it in a few more trades. Once the trade got underway I pulled up a 1 minute chart beside the hourly and watched for developing support so I could move my stops asap to break even or small profit, or small loss if necessary. Also I entered on the later break of the swing high even though there was a small penetration earlier - it was during the Asian session so I ignored it this time, I wasn't feeling so sure about whether to even trade today because things looked too consolidating/ranging. But by the time London came I got my witts, I saw a narrowing consolidation just below swing high and I decided if it breaks out of that and clears swing high, I'll get in.

Up to now when I enter a trade on the hourly candle I have had to sit and watch it flickering up and down and I wouldn't really have a feel for what to expect unless I survived another candle and was still in the trade, then I could just figure out a "good place" to put a stop. Even then things would sometimes take me out and then continue in profit without me.

So what I do on the M1 chart is watch for highs and lows forming in waves (the 1 hour flickering) and on a long trade, when candles start going back down for the first time after entering the trade, my initial wide stop is still in play. But if the M1 candles then go back in my favour (leaving a low behind), if they break the high they had left during the break out and before retracing low (form a higher high and leave a higher low behind), I will move stops below that low (hopefully above break even).

Then if at that point a new high/low forms, I will move the stops again, or maybe just move one up, and leap frog them, I just make it up as I go based on how much I've locked in.

Once I get far enough in my favour I will widen my stops to accommodate the volatility of the pair, for instance if I'm up +30 and a new low forms to allow me to move stops up, I will move them up but I'll put them maybe 10 below the actual low that formed to allow for the usual spikes and variance between charts and brokers.

On the M1 chart I showed where I entered the trade and the 2 areas I got out. The first area, I lost 1 lot because things dipped down a bit but then took off again (I should have widened it for the volatility) but I had my other lot sitting at the previous stop level so it was safe, and I was able to move it up and keep going.

The blue lines are places where I would move stops on new lows, and the red lines are the new highs that form. So the very first blue line I drew as a low to move a stop to, this was in the middle of an up move before a clear "new high" formed, but it was just after the trade started so I wanted to use that as a place to put a free trade in case it failed. I moved both my stops from initial swing pivot to the first blue line and I was happy enough to not lose out.

Then comes the area where the first red line is. I noticed the candles started going down and they formed a low spike on the second blue line, so I had my first high and low formed. I still didn't move any stops up - I wait until candles break the red line making a new high and thus making the newest support the red line instead of the low of the blue line.

So the candle blasted up through that first red line and I moved both stops up to the 2nd blue line. The stop should be guarded by new support on that first red line that was penetrated.

A high was formed at the second red line when candles fell down and started going back up, allowing that 3rd blue line to be marked. I watched for that second red line to be violated and when it was I moved both stops up to the 3rd blue line because now I wanted profit, things were going my way and I have some catching up to do in my account.

Beyond that point I wasn't looking for greed, the emotion vanished because I knew I was ok and so I started leap frogging the stops.

A new high was formed on the 3rd red line, and the 4th blue line marked the next stop level if the red line could be broken, but a consolidation occurred so I didn't move anything for a while. After I saw the high and low tested twice each, I decided maybe it'll fail, so I should lock SOME profit in. I moved one of the stops up beneath that 4th blue line, leaving extra room for volatility and it took me out. But I still had 1 lot down at the 3rd blue line.

Finally on the 4th move up, the red line was broken so I moved the other lot up to the 4th blue line. A high was formed at the 4th red line and then a low came, followed by a lower high, so I didn't consider the low to be a stop location. When the red line was broken I moved the stop up to the lowest low of that consolidation at the 5th blue line.

I continued this until the very top, and another consolidation occurred so I kept my stop way down beneath it at the 6th blue line for a long time. When I decided it was not looking good any more and it had already had a good run, I would have put the stop somewhere around that top blue line but it was close to the round 1.9800 point, so I placed my stop wider, beneath that level and eventually it was taken out.

Net result: Around +30 on lot 1 and around +70 on lot 2.

In looking at the areas where I got stopped out, one place was near the swing target zone and the next consolidation that caused problems was the target zone of the next higher fib. In between it was a clean run.
Nice job! you out pipped me on this one.
  • #35
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:43am Jan 8, 2008 6:43am
Quoting Bobokus
Nice job! you out pipped me on this one.
There's always tomorrow...
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #36
  • Jan 9, 2008 9:45pm Jan 9, 2008 9:45pm
The way you have been moving your stops up on the 1 min looks very similar to Kharvell's strategy (here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=62141 ).
  • #37
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:54pm Jan 9, 2008 10:54pm
I just read the PDF there. Same concept of using the waves as ongoing support/resistance. Maybe I'll look into the method as a main trading approach to see how it looks.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #38
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:04am Jan 10, 2008 1:04am
I've found it works best in combibation with the fib method. It allows trades (mostly scalps) that would normaly be passed up, especially by the standards of your Nov. pdf, and the fibs also prevent bad trades by showing levels to use caution around.

About the Nov pdf, there are quite a few trades that you would not have taken due to the wrong bias. Such as if the bias starts out long but then a candle opens below the short level, then goes up long again and breaks out of the high and reaches targets. So, basically you are trying to find a formula that has a "perfect setup", with the highest probability, right? It seems like you miss out on a bunch of trades, but I suppose that would be ok if you have an extremely high probability with the ones that fit the criteria. You could just trade larger numbers of lots (risk more) because you are confident in your trade. I tend to trade with small amounts of risk on riskier trades and larger amounts of risk on those that are more the "perfect setup" (on vHands anyway, practicing at this point).
  • #39
  • Jan 10, 2008 1:30am Jan 10, 2008 1:30am
Lately I'm considering allowing trades from either break out side if I use the M1 method to manage whatever does break out, and minimize the losses once it starts moving up and down. And I'm considering when I would allow a trade from a wrong-bias break out, maybe only if a break with the bias occurs and fails and then a reversal breaks out the other way with wrong bias. Rather than just blindly taking either break out.

But following the PDF as is and exiting at short term TP, I think I can get several hundred pips a month, so if I eliminate the TP and use M1 to manage, I know I can increase that gain greatly because you'll also see in the trades that do work, if I exit at T1 for 20 pips, it may have gone on to earn 200 sometimes, and M1 would help capture that.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #40
  • Jan 10, 2008 2:12am Jan 10, 2008 2:12am
Quoting Thexder

But following the PDF as is and exiting at short term TP, I think I can get several hundred pips a month, so if I eliminate the TP and use M1 to manage, I know I can increase that gain greatly because you'll also see in the trades that do work, if I exit at T1 for 20 pips, it may have gone on to earn 200 sometimes, and M1 would help capture that.
So, you have created a conservative approach for a foundation to work with (close position at T1, trade only in direction of original bias), now you can just look for ways to improve it, creating more high probability entries and letting profits run.

I sure enjoy watching your progress. Do you trade full time? I am fairly new at this but am full time now and my goal is to be consistently profitable and live off of forex by Sept this year. Freedoms ahead!
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