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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #1,481
  • Jan 8, 2008 2:33am Jan 8, 2008 2:33am
From what i can see here after reading the recent comments by ubeee about Jackos method, he is concerned that if you do not enter in the right place theres a good chance you will be stopped out using a 50 pip trailing stop.
Hes also saying that the anti hedging strategy may cause u to feed into a losing trade and continue losing the trades (which has happened to me a few times from using the AH strategy w/ a 50 pip trailing stop on the EUR/USD).

I found that the problem was although i was going w/ the long term trend there was a major retracement that just kept stopping me out for -50pips each time i would use the AH strategy. Which Jacko would refer to as repeated Fallen Soldiers.

I dont expect every trade to be a winner, or every time i use the AH strategy to work, i am realistic in knowing that the market is always unique.

But i do agree w/ ubeee in that Jacko does more often then not seem to find terrific entries into the market. I know he uses long term trendlines and the 50% retracement line to find his entry points (which are only on even numbers and the XX50 price marks).. but i feel like the 50% retracement line changes from person to person because there are many different places to form a fib. setup.

I have shown in the chart attached what i mean by how many different setups you can have for the 50% retracement

.. I apologize if Jacko has given exact directions in using the 50% retracement.
And for the record i think Jacko is an amazing trader and mentor, the best i have found so far online. His guidance has definately helped me become a better trader (mostly psychologically) and i think this is one of the most useful threads that every trader should stumble upon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR fib.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #1,482
  • Jan 8, 2008 2:52am Jan 8, 2008 2:52am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting newbietrader101
What a troll. what a pathetic troll.
WE TRADE FOREX, WE DO NOT PLAY COIN FLIPPING GAMES.
WE TRADE FOREX AND MAKE MONEY.
GO PLAY TIDDLIWINKS WITH THE OTHER TROLLS. LOL
WHAT A TOSSER. LOL

Newt
your wrong, i have had a very long conversation with Bullrock and a few others about coin flipping probability - Bullrock is possibly the best system tester i know, he is also probably the most bored trader i know also as he has started a thread for a coin toss system. do your research.LOL

Sorry, you were talking about coin flipping game - your correct.LOL

anyway just for fun here's the link

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1611344#post1611344

regards

MPP
  • #1,483
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:17am Jan 8, 2008 4:17am
I thinkt that cateful is right that many people escpecially newbies hesitate with entrys, I had the same problem at the beginning and also later. I think that some people buy at round numbers and 50% Fibo, BUT as I read in some posts they buy in the middle of a range or the chart when lets say price was at 1,4500 thinking about buying at 1,4550 ..... I am not sure.......and then they buy at 1,4600 ok it is also a round number but why buy sooooo expensive? I mean the Idea is very simple, what do we do if we buy a computer, a car or anything else? We try to buy at a very good (cheap) price!!!!!!! Why don't we do the same in forex? Jacko is so good because he tries to buy at the best possible points, so his earnings are better than buying on a round number in the middle of the chart. But it works also if you have bad entry's because I did it also at the beginning and most of the time 1 AH trade made makes more than 2-3 loosing trades. I don't want to critizice or teach anybody, but that is my sight of it.
Regards Erkro
  • #1,484
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:41am Jan 8, 2008 6:41am
I believe the market would have offered several periods on the EURUSD where a random "trail 50 pips, close out at 200 pips, hedge any loss by AH" entry system would have made above 0.

I just find all that sort of stuff very nonsensical..it isn't really about finding the "getting above 0 point", is it?

Chance alone will allow that by trading with the trend and using a lot of arbitrary rule based systems, one way or another.

IMHO it's about finding an optimized approach that suits your available means. I.e. if you want a life, you optimize the approach for time/return efficiency, if you want a good return per risk you seek to finesse leverage(stop sizing, MM, potential reward) and so forth.

I don't understand why everyone on the forum is always so intent to be the SOLE survivor. If person A can make system A work, then it works in that combo. If another guy does B and makes it work for him, then LET HIM.

Allow and accept that what can work for one might not for the next and that different backgrounds and intentions and approaches will make for different styles. Being able to simply provide "more arguments" for or against one or the other won't change the profitable bottom line of the guy who can make it work in spite of it, either side.

All this "it's each man for himself and we're all in a big competition" is a big bunch of BS - you can make or lose millions without anyone knowing or caring, why artificially generate this kind environment in a forum where you're actually trying to get somewhere and be constructive..live and let live.
As I've posted before, I go how I go because I BELIEVE in it - this doesn't mean I'm a missionary that goes and seeks to convince others of it(I have stated and supplied my beliefs before when challenged, realized it's a futile endeavor and changed my ways. The reformation has begun ;p).
Either they come and show me they want to know or they spite and leave..but there'll be no belief attained via "demands"("if you're so super then you won't have any trouble showing me your undies in public" type of posts and people) and there is no sense in "belief based" wars...neither here nor anywhere..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,485
  • Edited 7:12am Jan 8, 2008 7:09am | Edited 7:12am
Quoting CateFul
And what's the point of this "bet"?
CateFul, I wonder how many years of trading you have on your shoulders.
You either are another good trader like Jacko, and I hope this for you, or you are putting yourself at big risk trading without worrying about the losses.
I've read the book you mention, and some other hundreds of them.
I also have a suggestion for you. Read this book:

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

About my ego I simply provided a very fair telescope to see in if what I'm saying is true or false. We can look in this telescope or we can go on believing the sun in running around the earth, and flaming on forums, and wasting our time.

For sure I don't like to waste my time, and I will not post anymore in this thread, unless Jacko decides that it is ok for this thread to have a look in that telescope.
.Ubeee.
  • #1,486
  • Edited 11:42am Jan 8, 2008 7:44am | Edited 11:42am
Quoting ubeee
I wonder how many years of trading you have on your shoulders.
Not many. Jacko probably has traded longer than I have lived. In my culture elders are always respected as they more than often possess great wisdom.

Quoting ubeee
you are putting yourself at big risk trading without worrying about the losses.
I don't worry about them. They're taken care of before I put my order in. And they're small. So why should I worry about it?
You may call it a loss. But I call it money well spent: now I know I'm wrong.

Quoting ubeee
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
OK.
As a reference, Mr. Taleb said once, and I quote, "My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously and those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: 'I don’t know....' ".

Hmmm......

Quoting ubeee
About my ego I simply provided a very fair telescope to see in if what I'm saying is true or false. We can look in this telescope or we can go on believing the sun in running around the earth, and flaming on forums, and wasting our time.
OK.

Quoting ubeee
I will not post anymore in this thread, unless Jacko decides that it is ok for this thread to have a look in that telescope.
Thanks.

I want to quote Trader888 on a piece of advice on entry and trade management(http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1485155&postcount=41):
Quote
Not trading with my own money made it very easy to throw a line in the water just to see what would happen. Many a time that was the start to a great trade and sometimes it went against me but still managing it properly reduced the loss, although still a loss

Jacko, sorry for clogging up the thread I'll stop right here.
Take a report.
  • #1,487
  • Jan 8, 2008 9:22am Jan 8, 2008 9:22am
Quoting newbietrader101
What a troll. what a pathetic troll.
WE TRADE FOREX, WE DO NOT PLAY COIN FLIPPING GAMES.
WE TRADE FOREX AND MAKE MONEY.
GO PLAY TIDDLIWINKS WITH THE OTHER TROLLS. LOL
WHAT A TOSSER. LOL
Newbie .... you need to chill, this response in neither constructive or helpful, and it is WAY beneath the standards set by Jacko and his nature of giving

Also things have seemed to degenerate here lately, everybody needs to step back, take a breath.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #1,488
  • Jan 8, 2008 10:18am Jan 8, 2008 10:18am
All this talk about entries and trailing stops reminded me of a post Diallist wrote a while back in response to someones question, showing the advantages of trailing your stop the way Jacko does.

Took a bit of finding but I got there eventually, here it is:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1559913&postcount=709


Hope you don't mind me posting this Jacko, since your journal has got off track a little (again). Just thought it may be of interest to some. It certainly emphasised the advantages of trailing stop for me.
  • #1,489
  • Edited 2:10pm Jan 8, 2008 12:32pm | Edited 2:10pm
When Jacko states that it's not important where he gets in because the AH will essentially pick up the trend, he does not imply random entry. Jackos analysis of price is of the very highest order so PRECISE entry is not imperative for him. His strategy does not call for random entry but careful evaluation of support and resistance through the use of the 50% fib level, round numbers , trend lines and previous S/R levels. He also understands macro economics although he purely uses the charts for his trading decisions.

This all requires skill, which cannot simply be obtained from reading forum posts. It requires immense chart time, it is an artform.

Forums can relay strategy and guidance but not skill and experience.

The reason someone would post a strategy is to articulate their ideas. Having outside, impartial, testing and questioning provides acknowledgment of a good or bad method. I don't think there is anything wrong with previous posts questioning the strategy. That is simply a way to understand.

However, those that question should at least understand the basics of the strategy.
It is not based on random entry.
  • #1,490
  • Jan 8, 2008 8:58pm Jan 8, 2008 8:58pm
To people who worry about the potential loss in picking entries, well, there are actually ways to help reduce the risks.

Please allow me to use the current EUR daily chart for illustration. I have one uptrend line and 3 S&R lines.

On point 1 as marked in the chart, price is touching the trend line for the 3rd time. We have some good chance that it may bounce there. (The first 2 points determine the line and the last one is for test). If you enter on the touch of the trend line, you will have a winning trade there.

On point 2, price has come down to the long term S&R line, an entry there will most likely net you some pips. If you want to wait for the close of that day, the bar formed what is called a PINBAR pattern in James16 terminology (you can find James16's teaching in FF). It means a good chance to go up from there. Even a random pick on the entry coupled with A-H strategy here will get you something

On point 3, price has broken out the bullish wedge formation. That's a typical reversal pattern and if you get in there, you will be profitable too.

The problem with a lot of the traders, myself included, is that we can't just sit tight and wait for the opportunity to present itself to us. We need to control our urge and remind ourselves that we are doing this for financial gains, not just for fun and actions.

Going forward, we have another long term S&L around 1.4243 area, which is about 50% retracement. For me, I can either go aggressive to enter @ 1.4250 with a bigger trailing stop, or become conservative to wait for the price pattern for the sign of the reversal. (Disclaimer: this is not a trading recommendation)

One bit of advice that I received from other experienced traders (including Jacko) is that don't try to trade in less than 4HR time frame. It's possible to go lower timeframe but it's not for everyone. Jacko's methodology will not only let you make good money, but also have a good life there, too. His approach to the market is like running a business and he has proven that he is a good business man.

Trading too often and too much is usually a sign that we are fighting with the market. Stay relax and wait for the opportunities, there will be enough pips for us to get .

Good luck!

Ken
Attached Image
  • #1,491
  • Jan 9, 2008 2:43am Jan 9, 2008 2:43am
Quoting goodtiding5
The problem with a lot of the traders, myself included, is that we can't just sit tight and wait for the opportunity to present itself to us. We need to control our urge and remind ourselves that we are doing this for financial gains, not just for fun and actions.

Quote
Trading too often and too much is usually a sign that we are fighting with the market.
IMHO it is a sign you are fighting something inside YOURSELF.
"You can't change the market, but you can always change yourself".
Find out what it is and get over it by any means necessary. Either through understanding, trickery, distraction, anything.
Then move on through rationalization(what was really the problem, why was it stupid and why I now know I shouldn't ever do it again) and dehabitualization(don't do it ever again, maybe replace it with twiddling thumbs and humming cheerfully or something No, but seriously. Can't get any more important than this).
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,492
  • Jan 9, 2008 3:17am Jan 9, 2008 3:17am
Do you guys think that 1,4700 is the right price to go long ?
EUR/USD seems to be dead this week.
Maybe big traders are waiting for tomorrow - Interest Rate Announcement and Trichet`s speak.
Good luck to all.
  • #1,493
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:05am Jan 9, 2008 7:05am
Hi all, Hi Jacko,

I have a question with regard to the AH strategy.
50 pips retracements are quite frequent, so if you have a strong up trend, you must often re-enter at a higher level, missing a lot of pips.
Don't you adapt your stop technique for staying with the trend once you have pick up a good entry point ?

Thanks,

Fabrice.
  • #1,494
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:11am Jan 9, 2008 7:11am
Hi again,

Someone suggest in the recent posts to set a 100 pips TS, due to "increased volatility". For me, it is non-sense. You will just increase your loss if there is a big retracement or worse, a trend reversal. For a newbie, a trend reversal is not obvious and how many 100 pips AH stops in a row can he undergo ?
It just contradict the #1 rule: "Cut your loss quickly"
Is that really a Jacko recommendation ?

Fabrice
Trying to understand.
  • #1,495
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:41am Jan 9, 2008 7:41am
Quoting Fab
Hi again,

Someone suggest in the recent posts to set a 100 pips TS, due to "increased volatility". For me, it is non-sense. You will just increase your loss if there is a big retracement or worse, a trend reversal. For a newbie, a trend reversal is not obvious and how many 100 pips AH stops in a row can he undergo ?
It just contradict the #1 rule: "Cut your loss quickly"
Is that really a Jacko recommendation ?

Fabrice
Trying to understand.
100 pips for HALF your lot size = 50 pips your FULL lot size.

Jacko can correct me if I'm wrong but this was suggested ONLY for the low liquidity/high volatility market during the holidays.
  • #1,496
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:48am Jan 9, 2008 7:48am
My broker sends me email alerts on price level but I can't stay at my desk all day long. I'm looking for a way to forward email alerts to sms.
Any suggestion ?

Thanks,

Fabrice.
  • #1,497
  • Jan 9, 2008 7:54am Jan 9, 2008 7:54am
Quoting Fab
My broker sends me email alerts on price level but I can't stay at my desk all day long. I'm looking for a way to forward email alerts to sms.
Any suggestion ?

Thanks,

Fabrice.

<phonenumber including area code>@teleflip.com

try it!
  • #1,498
  • Jan 9, 2008 8:03am Jan 9, 2008 8:03am
Thanks,
I will look at it.
I omitted to say I am in +352 (Luxembourg).
  • #1,499
  • Jan 9, 2008 8:10am Jan 9, 2008 8:10am
Quoting Fab
Hi all, Hi Jacko,

I have a question with regard to the AH strategy.
50 pips retracements are quite frequent, so if you have a strong up trend, you must often re-enter at a higher level, missing a lot of pips.
Don't you adapt your stop technique for staying with the trend once you have pick up a good entry point ?
(even though not pertaining to the AH)
Jacko has written/posted that he's got/had/traded both longer term positions as well as the 50 TS ones. Personally I feel the longer term goal in mind ones are the really interesting ones.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,500
  • Jan 9, 2008 8:29am Jan 9, 2008 8:29am
Quoting charlinks
100 pips for HALF your lot size = 50 pips your FULL lot size.

Jacko can correct me if I'm wrong but this was suggested ONLY for the low liquidity/high volatility market during the holidays.
Why not FULL lot size with 25 pips stop ?
And why not simply... wait ?
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