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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #1,261
  • Jan 7, 2008 5:09am Jan 7, 2008 5:09am
Having played catch up earlier this morning and taken on board more of this great thread I worked up some charts to help with my day trading of the European session in GBPJPY......WOW! The attached charts show what I mean!

I used a 4 hr chart just to get it to fit and then transfered the yellow fibs to the 15 min and again put on another smaller range set of fibs and transfered the smaller range down to the 5 min.

I then placed a new (yellow) set of fibs onto the action from yesterdays open and noticed that price had held at the 50% line (what a surprise!!)

Just before the Frankfurt Open there was another attempted push down with an equal low at 214.32, then a higher low 15 mins after the FO - a great buy signal.....targets the 1.382 extension (-38 on the chart) at + 125 pips or the 1.618 (-62 on the chart) at + 165 pips - thanks again Skunny!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan 7 gj 4hr.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: jan 7 gj 15m 0500.gif Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: jan 7 gj 5m 0530.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: jan 7 gj 5m 0545.gif Size: 11 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,262
  • Jan 7, 2008 5:44am Jan 7, 2008 5:44am
Hello Skunny all

Wonder if i am doing this right. I'm kinda slow learning.
Day job, Baby at home, leaves me little free time practice on (Vhands).
If someone can correct me on a constructive way so that i stay on the right track, I be grateful.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpgpy.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #1,263
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:33am Jan 7, 2008 6:33am
http://i4.tinypic.com/6x7t0ch.gif

Price just keeps finding those fib projections.
  • #1,264
  • Jan 7, 2008 9:59am Jan 7, 2008 9:59am
I believe somewhere Skunny said we buy/sell on penetration because we dont know if it will retrace after penetration or just keep on going until the target is met. If you notice on Skunny's chart the 0 and 100 Fib lines are already programmed with Buy and Sell. Is this an absolute? Hum? Do we automatically buy at this point and then buy more when price retraces and we can get in at a better price? Can we be that confident in our trading...hum?




Quoting Pipskateer
You're exactly right...and I was wondering if anyone would comment on this. I'm not unaware of the break vs. penetration aspect, I'm just trying to experiment with what we've been learning on Vhands in real time. There are times when price seems to penetrate, retrace, and then break the level on its way to the -38.2/138.2 targets. Yet other times, it just slams on through, so there isn't a hard and fast rule we can apply (that I know of?). But, good call on your part!

Also, these were "set 'em and forget 'em trades". I wasn't going to be there to watch price action to see if there was a true break (candle close) or just penetration and retrace.
  • #1,265
  • Jan 7, 2008 1:06pm Jan 7, 2008 1:06pm
SKUNNY and all,
I'm leaving for a 2 week vacation with my wife and kids. So won't be able to check in much (no laptop yet). I am completely loving everything that is happening here. I can not thank Skunny, Sizz, Blue and a ton of others enough.
I am slowly getting a grasp on some of it. I have a ton of print offs to read while i'm gone.

Please don't leave us hanging Skunny. I still need more hints!

Take care!
  • #1,266
  • Jan 7, 2008 1:56pm Jan 7, 2008 1:56pm
Quoting Skunny
This was my old chair, but she only lasted a day or two.
You know how we say LOL but maybe don't REALLY laugh out loud.......well I actually did LAUGH OUT LOUD with this one, for a minute our so!
  • #1,267
  • Jan 7, 2008 3:32pm Jan 7, 2008 3:32pm
Hi All,

This is my first post, so be gentle!

I've been following this thread for a few days now. I originally came to it by following Skunnys posts on JohnW's thread, which in turn was linked from a post on another trading site I frequent. Anyhow, I'm only half way through reading all the posts which have so far been put up on this thread, but I'm finding the direction of the learning quite en captivating.

I've been trading for 4 years, and like all 'good' traders I've blown my fair share of accounts in the learning process. What I find from reading these posts though is a whole bunch of people who are dedicated to helping others to find a way of trading which they fully understand - not just plugging into some system which the guy with the snazzy website said can make you rich in 2 minutes and can predict who you'll marry and how many kids you'll have (I'm having 7 apparently). Learning to trade successfully is all about patience and understanding. Being able to recognise Price Action (PA) and levels of Support and Resistance (S/R) are the fundamentals of any good trading strategy. It's what I've built mine on

I just wanted to give all you guys 'pips' who are guiding the readers and participants through their respective journeys. Their destinations may be different, but hopefully with the knowledge they will take on board, they will all be in that 5%.

Thanks for starting this thread Skunny, it's made great reading and a useful exercise to overlay with my existing trading strategy - solely based on S/R and PA by the way.


And cheers to you Blue for all the info on vHands - why wasn't I aware of this 4 years ago? So many needlessly wasted pips

On that note, I'm off to play some more with vHands, gotta love that speeded up PA!!
History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it - Winston Churchill
  • #1,268
  • Jan 7, 2008 3:33pm Jan 7, 2008 3:33pm
Hi Skunny! I have couple questions about fib's range zone.
1. Does it have time expiration? For an example if I have fibs projected from hi/low swing into to the future on 1H chart and nothing happens(I mean range was penetrated and price made new Hi/Low swing but target was not hit) do I have readjust range say next day or wait until target will be hit?
2. If target is hit and new fractal is born can I use the same untouched opposite hi/low fractal with new Hi/low or I have to look for new higher/Lower one?
Thank you
  • #1,269
  • Edited 5:35pm Jan 7, 2008 4:51pm | Edited 5:35pm
Regarding the fibo-pull trading ranges...

We've been bantering about when one range ends and another begins. In my thinking, a range really never "dies". But I say that from the perspective that ranges are simply plotted areas of S/R and the market (people) is able to remember them as significant or not. They are forever mapped out on a chart history and become significant later down the road as PA moves back into that territory.

Also, if you are trading the M15 and your -38.2 extension gets hit, does that mean that price can't just as easily march immediately back across that zero line and zippity doo daa right on up to tag the opposite 138.2 ext?? Was that range "DEAD"? No.

As I'm putting what Skunny has taught us to use on my demo trading, I will call a range "DEAD" after my trade has hit its profit target. But only because , as the trader, I CHOOSE to ignore it and move ahead to a fresh setup. The S/R levels that created that range I'm now ignoring still exist and may yet come into play, but I'll deal with that on my next FIBO walk...make sense?

I have the same feelings about the -61.8/161.8 extensions... As a trader, I CHOOSE to ignore them since, in my personal risk tolerance levels and trading plan...I only shoot for 38.2/138.2 fib targets and then move on to find a fresh new high-probability setup. But other traders may certainly CHOOSE to be more aggressive than I am and opt to rely on those levels in their trading.

Skunny, please correct any flaws you find in my reasoning here and everyone else please feel free to discuss or differ as you like. Thanks!
  • #1,270
  • Jan 7, 2008 5:00pm Jan 7, 2008 5:00pm
I think the biggest criticism of fib's is that you can pull them anywhere and they will line up.

I also think the best thing about fib's is that you can pull them anywhere and they will line up.

For me at least, it lot has to do with the 'golden ratio'. If you pull a fib over an obvious S/R range you can sit back and watch as the price approaches the -.38/1.38 levels (and the -.61/1.61 et al) and even watch the level in between for entry/profit taking. To myself at least this is key, I may be wrong but it's something to think about.
  • #1,271
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:30pm Jan 7, 2008 6:30pm
This is the chart of the trade I flubbed and honestly... now looking at it... I don;t know what I or 4 bass ales were thinking. Bass ale FYI is a terrible trader. NO MM completely discretionary he is a loose cannon. Fun at parties though!


I played the pin off of the 1hr as I had a confirmed downside target. in the 212. sht

Now looking at it did I have something else on here? I did ... what was it. I must have.... because my trade entry says I took it because top of pin was a confirmed 100... it is right near a major 0 area ... not smart at all. It will be a mystery.

I must have over fibbed and incorrectly at that. So I got my rear end taken for a ride in the wrong direction I can still see that rolling smiley face hehehe now I can laugh then i was well laughing aswell but a pretty grumpy Gus. a little barky. I hate losing.

Being wrong is one thing but being wrong and not knowing why is another. and man those smiley faces...grrr

I flipped out and retraded all day on vhands to make sure I wasn't wrong about everything. then I ate a bunch of southern style biscuits .

It is still so fun to watch price on the 1's and 5's with a good fib. It is like math magic. Not so much fun (FOR ME) to trade them alright I am rambling

I don;t know how in the name of goop I took that trade but it broke my heart when the faux pB got eclipsed seriously It was a rough night. I looked like that Nick Nolte arrest photo but with slippers on.

I THINK i was trying to fib 1 and 5's to project price... or something..?

Here is how I see this chart all down side. Which means the stock market is going to collapse down all with the carry trades. Pound dollar is going to sink and Usd yen is short I agree with all that so i feel good.

Might be fun and might make 08 the year to get heavy into equities and carries eh? who knows I am wrong a wee bit. Someones 401k is going to be very angry though if I am not!

I THINK this chart is pretty basic so I don;t think I mucked much up anyone see any biffs on this pretty lady?

the black lines represent confirmed( by capt retardo mind you) top sides to the market the nearest being most active and the red lines are confirmed downside targets

methodology
... Now generally I am only looking to play the immediate target because price goes up and down. I might also use PA.. but all my chart tell me is where it isn;t going to go and where it is going next.

for example I am now "sure" it is going no higher then 216.14 and its next stop is 213.61 the other targets will play out when thay play out. So I am throwing this out so if I am wrong AGAIN I will hopefully be one step closer to right. I am interested to see how this plays out.

also that picture of that voluptious rear end is the background of my computer.

Someone tear this chart to bits please if not I might think I am right for once

Sizz
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: geppy.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #1,272
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:49pm Jan 7, 2008 6:49pm
Don't know if this sheds any light or not
http://www.traderslog.com/fibonacci-tricks.htm
  • #1,273
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:51pm Jan 7, 2008 6:51pm
Quoting sizzler
This is the chart of the trade I flubbed and honestly... now looking at it... I don;t know what I or 4 bass ales were thinking. Bass ale FYI is a terrible trader. NO MM completely discretionary he is a loose cannon. Fun at parties though!


I played the pin off of the 1hr as I had a confirmed downside target. in the 212. sht

Now looking at it did I have something else on here? I did ... what was it. I must have.... because my trade entry says I took it because top of pin was a confirmed 100... it is right near a major 0 area ... not smart at all. It will be a mystery.

I must have over fibbed and incorrectly at that. So I got my rear end taken for a ride in the wrong direction I can still see that rolling smiley face hehehe now I can laugh then i was well laughing aswell but a pretty grumpy Gus. a little barky. I hate losing.

Being wrong is one thing but being wrong and not knowing why is another. and man those smiley faces...grrr

I flipped out and retraded all day on vhands to make sure I wasn't wrong about everything. then I ate a bunch of southern style biscuits .

It is still so fun to watch price on the 1's and 5's with a good fib. It is like math magic. Not so much fun (FOR ME) to trade them alright I am rambling

I don;t know how in the name of goop I took that trade but it broke my heart when the faux pB got eclipsed seriously It was a rough night. I looked like that Nick Nolte arrest photo but with slippers on.

I THINK i was trying to fib 1 and 5's to project price... or something..?

Here is how I see this chart all down side. Which means the stock market is going to collapse down all with the carry trades. Pound dollar is going to sink and Usd yen is short I agree with all that so i feel good.

Might be fun and might make 08 the year to get heavy into equities and carries eh? who knows I am wrong a wee bit. Someones 401k is going to be very angry though if I am not!

I THINK this chart is pretty basic so I don;t think I mucked much up anyone see any biffs on this pretty lady?

the black lines represent confirmed( by capt retardo mind you) top sides to the market the nearest being most active and the red lines are confirmed downside targets

methodology
... Now generally I am only looking to play the immediate target because price goes up and down. I might also use PA.. but all my chart tell me is where it isn;t going to go and where it is going next.

for example I am now "sure" it is going no higher then 216.14 and its next stop is 213.61 the other targets will play out when thay play out. So I am throwing this out so if I am wrong AGAIN I will hopefully be one step closer to right. I am interested to see how this plays out.

also that picture of that voluptious rear end is the background of my computer.

Someone tear this chart to bits please if not I might think I am right for once

Sizz

call me crazy sizz but all we know for sure is that IF you drew your gibs correctly and price breaks your 0 or 100 fib then and only thn are you pretty sure its going to hit you 138 extention at 213.61

Didn't master sensi tell us to stay away from the geppy? lol I know I cant help myself either lol u know skunny put 2 fibs on the geppy yesterday...didnt u notice?... I know I did..... was very revealing.... fit right into my master plan for that beast lol.... dont know if this helps but here is some possible fibs on 1 hour and 30 min for ya..... maybe price will decide soon where she is going next? i have no idea if i did this right at all....but....just hoping maybe this helps?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #1,274
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:05pm Jan 7, 2008 7:05pm
  •  itguy
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: 110..220....Whatever it takes | 39 Posts
Quoting sizzler
I don;t know what I or 4 bass ales were thinking. Bass ale FYI is a terrible trader. NO MM completely discretionary he is a loose cannon. Fun at parties though!
Sizz
I think your buddy Bass ale and my buddy Captain Morgan should get together and compare trading notes instead of butting in to our trades.....
  • #1,275
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:09pm Jan 7, 2008 7:09pm
Thats how my chart looks like.
It now becomes pretty much a breakout trade after ranging since 3 days... and the range becoming smaller, the squeeze squeezier. So in my HO the breakout will be heavy and violent and the 382 extension will be hit in the 1st 3 minutes after entry... either direction.

But thats just me...

P.S. I love Skunny's chart colors (same as the rest of his posts!) and hopefully I don't have to pay license fees for copying them!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 15 KB
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #1,276
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:09pm Jan 7, 2008 7:09pm
Quoting Pipskateer
Regarding the fibo-pull trading ranges...

Also, if you are trading the M15 and your -38.2 extension gets hit, does that mean that price can't just as easily march immediately back across that zero line and zippity doo daa right on up to tag the opposite 138.2 ext?? Was that range "DEAD"? No.
I was looking at this 1 Hr. GBP/USD chart last night and placed my fibs (white color) on the obvious big move and left them there, then a little before the London open I placed another set of fibs (yellow color) on a high/low that had some good confluence with the previous fib setup. If you look at that yellow fib set-up price went down to the 162 going short and the very next candle it did as you describe on the 15 min charts and went up to the other end of the fib range at the high 162. I guess that would be a completed cycle.....maybe?????

p.s. also just fibbed the hi/lo in between my yellow and white fibs and their was a good place there for a short play to the 138 before retracing up to the zero line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2fibsa.JPG Size: 80 KB
trading naked.......
  • #1,277
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:31pm Jan 7, 2008 7:31pm
Quoting dagoods
call me crazy sizz but all we know for sure is that IF you drew your gibs correctly and price breaks your 0 or 100 fib then and only thn are you pretty sure its going to hit you 138 extention at 213.61

Didn't master sensi tell us to stay away from the geppy? lol I know I cant help myself either lol u know skunny put 2 fibs on the geppy yesterday...didnt u notice?... I know I did..... was very revealing.... fit right into my master plan for that beast lol.... dont know if this helps but here is some possible fibs on 1 hour and 30 min for ya..... maybe price will decide soon where she is going next? i have no idea if i did this right at all....but....just hoping maybe this helps?

Is this a joke post? Da goods did you even at my chart? hehehe Da Bearz! Ditka

I know I am bad at following directions...a trial by fire man myself as far as the geppy I couldn't imagine a finer pair for this IMO.... maybe GBP/CAD

You really only need one pair maybe two for the rest of your career.

2 fibs? really? j/k I have been using multi fibs for a while. It Does help alot. IN fact you can drown your chart in active fibs if you aren;t careful

I think my chart has 3 fibs? Of course I think you can forecast price as sometimes... your target 132 with break a greater fibs 0 or 100... and you can tell that by a pierce of the mini 100 or zero that all assumes your fibs are right and this method works of course.

I guess the proof will be in the pudding so to speak if my tps get hit and my supply levels get respected. If not... back to the drawing board... again.')


thanks for the input though, glad to hear that you are doing well!!

I will get the captain and Mr bass together and lock them away from the trade station... sheesh! thank the lord Patron doesn;t have my address.


Sizz.
  • #1,278
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:32pm Jan 7, 2008 7:32pm
Quoting sizzler
... also that picture of that voluptious rear end is the background of my computer.
I don't think I've ever laughed this much on a thead before. Sizzler, you're the best man.
You are always making me laugh here which simply makes this thread even that more enjoyable!

Jon
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #1,279
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:35pm Jan 7, 2008 7:35pm
OMG!!!!!!! Mr. Bass, Capt. Morgan and Lord Patron.........I can hardly wait for the "Traders Gone Wild" video to surface from that one.
trading naked.......
  • #1,280
  • Edited 7:47pm Jan 7, 2008 7:37pm | Edited 7:47pm
Quoting DXTrade
Thats how my chart looks like.
It now becomes pretty much a breakout trade after ranging since 3 days... and the range becoming smaller, the squeeze squeezier. So in my HO the breakout will be heavy and violent and the 382 extension will be hit in the 1st 3 minutes after entry... either direction.

But thats just me...

P.S. I love Skunny's chart colors (same as the rest of his posts!) and hopefully I don't have to pay license fees for copying them!

I would agree.... This pair loves to short fast and dirty I think it might just blow through my tp 1 2 and then 3 in quick succession.

Squeeze squeezier nice. POP to the downside. bye bye stock market. I ahve been working with someone and we are putting bottom at something nuts. 207.9 on down to I think 203 ish... where does everyone else have bottom of the correction?


Sizz
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