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Tiki Trader Trades

  • #161
  • Edited 7:01am Jan 5, 2008 6:39am | Edited 7:01am
Of coarse you are right... and using my same indicators that would be shown on those time frames...

But I don't trade those times frames... !!! Remember... it's my journal... I am not here to talk about how you trade...!!! Or others... for that matter... The first post in this thread explains what time frames I trade...

Here is a picture of current USD/JPY on 15 minute time frame.... red white and blue... with red on the bottom.... DOWNTREND... of coarse...

Quoting hharrington
@ Tiki

If you were trading the 5, 15, or 30 minute charts 4 down bars on the daily would certainly be a downtrend....trend????

depends on how you are playing the market.

Not all of us play the same way Tiki
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  • #162
  • Jan 6, 2008 3:05pm Jan 6, 2008 3:05pm
Well, for the moment I have no trade ideas...

Only thing I can muster for right now is to watch the 30 min SAR system on GBP/JPY later tonight perhaps a signal on that...

Although I keep seeing triangles.... gotta get my eyes checked...
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  • #163
  • Edited 8:08pm Jan 6, 2008 7:50pm | Edited 8:08pm
LONG @ 214.00 before regular market open... two positions... first target hit at 214.80 final target 215.80 STOP @ 213.80

Testing a new sytem on Oanda for trading Sunday candle... Top Secret... very small amount... but gonna tip my balance slightly ++++
  • #164
  • Jan 6, 2008 8:28pm Jan 6, 2008 8:28pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
LONG @ 214.00 before regular market open... two positions... first target hit at 214.80 final target 215.80 STOP @ 213.80

Testing a new sytem on Oanda for trading Sunday candle... Top Secret... very small amount... but gonna tip my balance slightly ++++
nice
I'm long g/j, u/j, e/j, c/j (since 4PM EST today), u/cad.. short e/u, g/u, a/u and n/u (since friday). Keep your eye on cable when it breaks 1.97 and beyond (if) overnight. It might pull g/j along.. I'm trying not to have targets, but it would be nice if it hit 220 before reversing and falling to 203...
  • #165
  • Jan 6, 2008 9:28pm Jan 6, 2008 9:28pm
THX rac... !!! And I swear to God the following chart is what I already had in mind before your answer... nice if maybe even to 221...

Quoting raczekfx
nice
I'm long g/j, u/j, e/j, c/j (since 4PM EST today), u/cad.. short e/u, g/u, a/u and n/u (since friday). Keep your eye on cable when it breaks 1.97 and beyond (if) overnight. It might pull g/j along.. I'm trying not to have targets, but it would be nice if it hit 220 before reversing and falling to 203...
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  • #166
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:24am Jan 7, 2008 6:24am
Both Targets hit
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  • #167
  • Jan 7, 2008 1:52pm Jan 7, 2008 1:52pm
Nice work Tiki,
keep em coming!Raz
Never say never.
  • #168
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:07pm Jan 7, 2008 2:07pm
Yes, but so small a change in the balance because the trade size was SO small... really was an experiment I am doing for Sunday candle... just got lucky to expand it a little...!!!

GBP/JPY just doesn't look like going up anymore...

Quoting razldazl
Nice work Tiki,
keep em coming!Raz
  • #169
  • Jan 7, 2008 5:27pm Jan 7, 2008 5:27pm
Well CAD still climbs up, even through all the hoopla that it has to come down... well today's daily candle perhaps shows some signs it may fall soon...

There is still a chance for this nice divergece trade on the hourly time frame... harder for me to get in on the Hourly time frames though... either I am working or sleeping when the trade fires off...

We will see...

WOW.. what a pretty blue chart... !!! Funny how it is black when I snap the shot... just don't get that !!
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  • #170
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:00pm Jan 7, 2008 6:00pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Well, all the JPY pins are going the wrong way for the moment... that shouldn't be a big deal as they really had not fired off yet... so no one ought to be losing... except for those who junped the gun... which brings us to me.... NOOOOOOOOO, I didn't jump the gun... but I guess I did not have my order set quite far enough above the break of the pin on CAD/JPY, so sometime last night price nicked my entry price... so I am in... CAD/JPY pin is holding up better than the others... but still, not looking so good... I will hang in there with it... If I lose, I will only lose what I won the other day and my year balance will still be at 0%.... not negative... so no worries from me...

this is why i like stop buy and stop sell orders for pinbars.... they like to trick u and they dont decide to fail or hold as valid until the next candle or 3.....(james 16) just a thought once u see a pinbar candle u can place a stop sell and a stop buy on opposite sides of it....see if the next candle triggers your order or not etc.... i'm with mike w low risk high reward trades are dabomb!
  • #171
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:27pm Jan 7, 2008 6:27pm
Yes I agree... but look too that none of those Pins have gone far past the point they failed.... thoug I am sure they soon will... this time it was just a no trade... I was in accidentally... and I also failed to really look at the weekly bar and the weekly PB before it... otherwise I would probably have thought twice about ever putting in the order... And that of coarse is also why I can barely keep my balance at BE... But lets hope I can get past that this year... I also like the MW thought of low risk high reward trades... but I also think he said he was already short on CAD.. and to me, while I can see the reasons for CAD to be going down soon... I just don't think it is quite time to trade it yet... it's coming surely... I will most likely be in bed when it happens... !!

Quoting dagoods
this is why i like stop buy and stop sell orders for pinbars.... they like to trick u and they dont decide to fail or hold as valid until the next candle or 3.....(james 16) just a thought once u see a pinbar candle u can place a stop sell and a stop buy on opposite sides of it....see if the next candle triggers your order or not etc.... i'm with mike w low risk high reward trades are dabomb!
  • #172
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:37pm Jan 7, 2008 6:37pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Yes I agree... but look too that none of those Pins have gone far past the point they failed.... thoug I am sure they soon will... this time it was just a no trade... I was in accidentally... and I also failed to really look at the weekly bar and the weekly PB before it... otherwise I would probably have thought twice about ever putting in the order... And that of coarse is also why I can barely keep my balance at BE... But lets hope I can get past that this year... I also like the MW thought of low risk high reward trades... but I also think he said he was already short on CAD.. and to me, while I can see the reasons for CAD to be going down soon... I just don't think it is quite time to trade it yet... it's coming surely... I will most likely be in bed when it happens... !!

i wouldnt touvh the cad with 10 foot pole till she cones around to my way of thinking... patience she will comply sooner or later but agreed no trade there at all yet IMO

  • #173
  • Jan 7, 2008 10:04pm Jan 7, 2008 10:04pm
OK, I have gone short on CAD as per the divergence trade...

Short @ 1.0016 STOP @ 1.0083 Target 0.9943 which is about the line for the 200 ema...

Risk only about 0.2 of 1%.... Potential is also not much...

HOWEVER, in my next post... I will show you what I really have in mind... somthing much bigger....!!!
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  • #174
  • Jan 7, 2008 10:12pm Jan 7, 2008 10:12pm
OK... here is my long term thought... and first I will tell you that I lied in my last post about where my profit target is for right now.... The real target is at the purple line at about .9600 ...

I hope my chart is understandable.... PLEASE DO NOT think that anything there is based on EW just because there are 123 and abc labels there... I know nothing to speak of of EW... what you see on my chart are just labels...

As you can see, both 2 and B retraced right back to about the 61 fib line...

Where 3 ends up... well I have an idea... but that is a very long time in the future... we'll leave it at that...

OK... I know anyone reading this may think I am ding dong crazy... but what the heck... I can dream right...??? !! And if nothing else... it was a fun half an hour making up the charts !!!
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  • #175
  • Jan 7, 2008 10:19pm Jan 7, 2008 10:19pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
OK... here is my long term thought... and first I will tell you that I lied in my last post about where my profit target is for right now.... The real target is at the purple line at about .9600 ...

I hope my chart is understandable.... PLEASE DO NOT think that anything there is based on EW just because there are 123 and abc labels there... I know nothing to speak of of EW... what you see on my chart are just labels...

As you can see, both 2 and B retraced right back to about the 61 fib line...

Where 3 ends up... well I have an idea... but that is a very long time in the future... we'll leave it at that...

OK... I know anyone reading this may think I am ding dong crazy... but what the heck... I can dream right...??? !! And if nothing else... it was a fun half an hour making up the charts !!!

It looks good to me Tiki. I hope we both end out with a lot of profit off of this.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #176
  • Jan 7, 2008 10:44pm Jan 7, 2008 10:44pm
Quoting mike w
It looks good to me Tiki. I hope we both end out with a lot of profit off of this.

it looks good to me bud....

i took a ucad short too...lets hope this is the beginiing of the end for that pair!
  • #177
  • Jan 8, 2008 2:08pm Jan 8, 2008 2:08pm
Well... USD/CAD is hovering around break even... which is no fun...

Taking a chance now on USD/JPY and GBP/JPY

USD/JPY LONG @ 109.36 Target @ 112.00 STOP @ 107.90
Risk 0.2 of 1% Looking to hit 61 fib line

GBP/JPY LONG @ 215.70 Target @ 221.70 STOP @ 213.40
Risk 0.3 % Looking to hit 50 fib line
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  • #178
  • Jan 8, 2008 2:22pm Jan 8, 2008 2:22pm
Hey Tiki, I have 2 questions for you.
First, are these trades just playing the probablity of price retracing to the 61% fib? No PA or divergence involved right?

Second, how come you dont risk a set % amount for each trade?
The reason I ask, is because it can really affect and skew your bottom line when the risk is changed from trade to trade.

Take care,
Tom
  • #179
  • Edited 2:43pm Jan 8, 2008 2:39pm | Edited 2:43pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Well... USD/CAD is hovering around break even... which is no fun...

Taking a chance now on USD/JPY and GBP/JPY

USD/JPY LONG @ 109.36 Target @ 112.00 STOP @ 107.90
Risk 0.2 of 1% Looking to hit 61 fib line

GBP/JPY LONG @ 215.70 Target @ 221.70 STOP @ 213.40
Risk 0.3 % Looking to hit 50 fib line
hey tiki you bot guts my friend... think today we are seeing a weak dow and it seems the dow correlation is back.... many gj traders were thinking same as u that gj loves to retrace to 50 fib in the past....but such a weak dollar still maybe it isnt as true this year..... that beast is scary on higher timeframes...... i think we are seeing some retesting of the previous recent low supports...if those hold u will make out...if not oops lol..... like you said you were taking a risk.... but i have 1 open long still as well.. SHIT we are on thin ice and we probably should have listened to MIKE W! lol but lets hope worst case we get stopped and reverse for even more pips right! good luck

update.... testing support trendline on gj now...we shall see later sessions she may bull up..... if not what a great short that is coming if she goes down belso that 213 x support level...... may the pips be with you!
  • #180
  • Jan 8, 2008 2:57pm Jan 8, 2008 2:57pm
Well.... here is the truth... we had a pretty big drop... maybe we just drop some more... I don't know... actually if we do... I have a sell order under there on GBP/JPY...

I am trying to practice what raczek preaches.... retrace to PPZ... then look for the drop... And this is something I really have looked at for a few days since the drop... I read up on the HNS... and all points to a high likely hood that price should retrace to the neck line and bounce down from there... if a classic HNS... I made my green bar chart and I see the PPZ... and funny how it is also the 61 or 50 fib lines.... I am willing to take a small chance...

Moneybags... we all know Tiki can barely come in at BE... lots of lights have come on in the past few weeks... but the truth of my balance is written right down at the bottom there... I have no business risking very much at all...

These are not A trades... and unless I think it is an A trade... I am not willing to risk much at all... I am not willing to end up negative this year... So in the case of these trades... I risked 500 units on each one... if I lose them both, my total loss will be 6$ - 8$... something I can live with... if I really risked 1% of my account and lose... that's almost $ 40 bucks...

Just happens that the GBP/JPY trade has a bigger stop so there is the slightly greater risk...

When the A trades come along.. I will risk the 1 %... but I haven't seen any A trades yet this year...

Maybe it is not so logical... but I need to protect my capital for the year... if I lose these two trades... and even the CAD trade... I will still be very close to BE for the year... I refuse to go negative .... !! Just refuse... !!

Quoting moneybags
Hey Tiki, I have 2 questions for you.
First, are these trades just playing the probablity of price retracing to the 61% fib? No PA or divergence involved right?

Second, how come you dont risk a set % amount for each trade?
The reason I ask, is because it can really affect and skew your bottom line when the risk is changed from trade to trade.

Take care,
Tom
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